EPTTL Mafia XXXV
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FOS LSB. analysis to come shortly | ||
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On December 27 2010 10:27 LSB wrote: Flamwheel/Incog forgot to send me who my teammates were, can you PM me them? Thanks! what is the point of this post? acting as if he is mafia to create the impression he is not mafia? WIFOM surely, but think about it On December 27 2010 10:35 LSB wrote: I say we lynch ~OpZ~ because his town play and mafia play is indistinguishable. what is the point of this? instant attempt to form a wagon on someone who hasnt even posted yet and the game had just started? On December 27 2010 10:37 LSB wrote: If there are mayoral elections, will you help me make my campaign poster? On December 27 2010 10:38 LSB wrote: Nvm, doesn't seem like there are mayoral elections two posts to seem active and he answers his own question a minute later. point of this? On December 27 2010 11:11 LSB wrote: + Show Spoiler + I wanted to wait for the day post before posting this but w/e All right, in many games there was an uneventful first day. Lets not make this one of those games. A few things to talk about:
Inactives: A big problem in every mafia game is inactivity. I don't want another drag_ being able to squeak by with barely any posts. We should immediately show it is not okay to be inactive. Inactive players hurt the town as they waste lynches down the road as the town will need to try to separate the mafia from the inactives. We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one. This will force the assassins to discuss and not be able to turtle, increasing the chance they will slip up. The key is that we have to make sure the town knows it is not okay to just simply sit back and not do anything. This way, hopefully everyone will be active and we won't need to lynch an inactive. Plan Firstly. DO NOT CLAIM DO NOT CLAIM Good now that we got that out of the way, some other ideas. Generic Blue Activity plan One plan that would work is to use the blue roles to promote activity in the town. The DTs should check the inactive people and the lurkers, as it is incredibly difficult if not impossible to tell the difference between a bored townie and a lurking mafia. The Medics should protect active players, this way the mafia won't be able to take out the people who are contributing the most to town, so people won't be scared of trying to put forth their opinions. Framer Issue: Framers are much better put to use framing the important townies. So any attempt by the mafia for framing the inactives would be a waste. "should we lynch an inactive?" <-- probably knows mafia is most likely to at least pay attention to the thread enough to evade being labeled inactive. probably knows even if there are mafia inactives, he can choose any other town inactive and maintain the aura of "hey im helping out town" the rest of this is informative sure, but common sense? but the line "We should therefore push to lynch an inactive day one." worries me. much better to hit an active scummy person and LSB should know this. "DO NOT CLAIM" is good advice, and i would like to say obvious, but given current history and shit it isnt =\ On December 27 2010 11:18 LSB wrote: Lets say Coagulation tells Doctor H that he is the medic. That's a claim Let's not do that this game On December 27 2010 11:25 LSB wrote: Of course. There's a few cases where claiming is okay. 1) You are about to be lynched. Don't expect this to save you, but it would be nice to tell the town what happens 2) DT checks you. The DT then messages you and say that "I know your role is [insert green/blue role here]. This is mainly used when the DT finds a red, and also finds a green. The green becomes the "DT Mouth" and tells the Town what the DT found out. 3) The Medic successfully protects you. Assuming that it wasn't a hit from the mad hatter, if the medic protects someone, that person probably isn't mafia. 4) The town thinks of some super awesome plan. The issue is when blues jump the gun and start claiming before they confirmed someone. That's a great way to get our blues sniped. (See Salem Mafia. For a short summary, look at the article in the Pony Express) 1 and 2 are fine, 3 is not - you don't claim here, you just admit to being hit - preferably to town circle if you know where it is. 4 is a catch-all sure, but claiming day 1 to a "super awesome plan" is a horrible idea. that said though, LSB is providing pure information (some of which is sketchy) and no analysis. this early it is usually fine but consider it in the light of his earlier postings? it is like he wants to be active but isnt contributing valuable stuff. On December 27 2010 11:27 LSB wrote: Check out Pokemafia. Basically the entire mafia team, except for DCXLIV and Kavdragon posted once a day, and made sure they voted. That's what lurking is. common sense information On December 27 2010 11:43 LSB wrote: TheMango, just a question, why is it that when I try stalking you some of you posts don't show up in your post history? fair question! On December 27 2010 12:06 LSB wrote: Hahahahahhaha ? On December 27 2010 12:37 LSB wrote: What do you feel about lynching inactives / spammers? What do you feel that the blues should do? more "hit inactives" crap - this is bad. also maybe a blue fish? On December 27 2010 12:43 LSB wrote: Can I write one then? On December 27 2010 12:43 LSB wrote: That was at Incog/Flamewheel wants to write a day post. uh huh. keep this in mind with the "try to appear active but not" lens. On December 27 2010 13:26 LSB wrote: I don't believe Pandain is mafia just because he fingered Mr. Wiggles. Clearly at the time Mr. Wiggles did not contribute anything, and Pandain just voted to accent his point. Indeed, as Ver put in his town guide, spamming can be detrimental to the town. Now, I don't belive we should lynch Mr. Wiggles. It is far to early to tell anything about him, and also I'd rather lynch a lurker/inactive than a spammer. HEY something of content, cool. sort of defense of pandain and blatant defense of mr. wiggles. sadly the rationale of "inactives instead!" is scummy. On December 27 2010 13:30 LSB wrote: EBWOP Yep, thats what I'm doing. It looks like there is a little time lag between what you post and what shows up in the search function. Maybe this is normal... Haven't actually tried searching for posts this recent before. dunno how to analyze this -- information that isnt common sense (or meant to filibuster) is fine, and even i didnt know this one. id say this gets a pass On December 27 2010 13:37 LSB wrote: + Show Spoiler + Disclaimer: I don't believe that we'll actually lynch an inactive. How about Zero meaningful posts? If all they have is spam and one vote with an explination of "I agree". That would be an inactive Or if we seriously have no idea what to do, we could lynch someone about to be modkilled, a way to essentially abstain yes, lets lynch people with zero meaningful posts. LSB, you up? or yes lets lynch a modkill target because those are almost certainly going to be town and we want to lynch towns, yes. On December 27 2010 13:39 LSB wrote: 5/5! And Merry Christmas to you too! you too. On December 27 2010 13:43 LSB wrote: Hmm... I wonder if the mafia would try to modkill one of their own members in hopes of getting the person replaced by DoctorH Ace did that back in insane. Well, we forced the mafia to find their own repacements, and Ace choose L. good idea, i like this, but why sign up and then insta modkill on purpose? if youre replaced its not like you can consider any potential wins by the mafia as wins for you -- you are considered not to have even played the game. seems like something nobody should ever do on purpose and if they do, metagaming at its finest. buuuut then we haaaave..... On December 27 2010 13:57 LSB wrote: As for new players, don't worry to much about being inactive. As long as you try to play mafia and spend some time thinking and reading the thread, this won't ever be a problem. Just post you thoughts on the person currently being accused. And feel free to ask questions, in thread, PMing the hosts, or any of the Bootcamp helpers, and I'm always willing to help "DONT WORRY ABOUT BEING INACTIVE LOL" after his entire campaign day 1 was "kill the inactives" -- whaaaat? what is this inconsistency? On December 28 2010 00:34 LSB wrote: Remember this post? 40 Minutes Later http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=179875#2 Not a scum tell per say... but still... yes coagulation got a 14 day ban on purpose to "help" his mafia team day 1, this makes perfect sense. ***************** in conclusion, LSB has been making pure nonposts and/or pure informative posts without analysis, with the two exceptions being his insistence on the "kill inactives" theme and his defenses of pandain and mr. wiggles. yet he has like 30 posts up while saying almost absolutely nothing. my vote is on LSB now. | ||
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others are probably similar | ||
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2. you could do whatever analysis you please? all i know is you didnt do any 3. evidently you do need to pretend to be active, since you did for ~30 posts 4. it says you are defending pandain? i dont understand what you are asking me to do 5. thank you. | ||
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however, this only benefits mafia. mafia will know that any players who say "i checked X, hes mafia" when X is not mafia are not DTs. it will also give advance warning to any DTs who call mafia out correctly. anyone who is called out incorrectly will know the list of incorrect DTs and this can be just as good as DTs coming out -- which they should never do. | ||
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On December 28 2010 04:40 DoctorHelvetica wrote: The problem is when we focus too much on inactives we start calling people scum just because they didn't post enough when the far more disturbing trend is posting a lot/posting big posts and saying absolutely nothing helpful: like LSB? | ||
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On December 28 2010 04:49 Pandain wrote: 1.I do not think we should vote LSB. Plainly, he has been contributing alot so far, more than most of the people already. Plainly, if he is mafia, then we'll most likely catch him anyway. We should not be lynching actives, even if we have a slight suspicion that he's mafia. Obviously if we have a good inkling I suppose we should go for it(as in team melee mafia 2 incog fingered lsb day 1) but right now there's really nothing on LSB, and I wouldn't want to lynch an expierenced player. Plus there are some problems with your analysis, but I'll just name a few. 1. If you are hit, then u should claim. LSB was right. Becuase mafia can't tell if ur vet or just protected or what. 2.You're mistaking jokes for real content. (aka when lsb said coag got banned so dr. h could join) 3.The only real suspicious thing about him is his somewhat spammy nature. The most important of which being number 3, but that is certainly not a reason to lynch him when he's already contributed alot. this worries me i already highlighted LSB's defense of pandain. now pandain is defending LSB on my FOS. in and of itself that is fine but his rationale is "if hes mafia, we'll catch him anyway" ... whaaaaaat? basically pandain is saying "so what if he acts scummy day 1, if hes mafia he will act scummy days 2-X and we can lynch him then" <--- am i missing something here when i call this horrible logic? on point: i am not so sure public claiming of being hit is 100% the smart play, but am willing to be persuaded on this strategy debate. note that even if LSB turns out correct and this is the proper strategy, it does not acquit him of scumminess. second, "mistaking jokes for real content" makes me scratch my head. can anyone just out and say "JUST KIDDING LOL" if someone calls them up on something? i think a big part of my case against him is in the spammy nature, as you call it. he posts a lot without actually posting a lot, you know what i mean? its that plus his case against inactives that bothers me. | ||
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you know when you highlight text in a book? to draw your eyes to important things later when you study? like that | ||
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i think ~24/30 of this game will agree that i have contributed much more analysis to this game than you have. the 6 who wont are you and your five mafia teammates. if there are seven mafia or eight mafia then it will be 23/30 and 22/30 who will agree with this. =\ | ||
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On December 28 2010 05:55 DoctorHelvetica wrote: Annul is being way too defensive. If somebody doesn't like your analysis or says you aren't contributing much and suddenly you go extremely active to defend the minute points is strange. I know you "hardcore defend" yourself in every game but that definitely wasn't the case when you were town in Salem. No one is really accusing you of anything but you're defending yourself, to me, like a player that is seriously up on the chopping block. I don't like that so I'm putting my vote on you for now and when I come back from work I'll see if a better target presents itself. I notice you are stressing how pro-town your contributions have been when you really haven't contributed all that much. I like your persistence on LSB. I have a neutral read on you right now but I need to put my vote somewhere. Don't take it too personally. in my mind i wasnt really "playing" salem or i would have hardcore defended myself there too i shouldnt have signed up for it but i wasnt going to modkill out of it. but here i really am not defending myself, but my analysis. my case is attacked so i defend it. its not like "hey annul did X Y Z lynch him" and i am fighting to survive. to me, the defenders of LSB are potential mafia because in my mind, LSB is mafia. so of course i want to push them off. | ||
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if PBPA is a spam maneuver then i really need to quit this game because i must not know a thing about forum mafia point 2 is a false classification of my position. i want to lynch scummy targets, not inactives. LSB wants to fire on inactives exclusively. it is correct that where there are no other scummy targets, an inactive is a fine kill. but where there is scum, there is no reason whatsoever to leave them alone in favor of inactives, which is what LSB advocates. right now there are scummy targets and there are places to analyze that do not involve inactives. point 3, spoiler 2 is false. "yet annul brushes it aside" -- yes, i clearly brushed aside you telling us what you want to do to inactives. clearly. point 3, spoiler 3 is sort of false. perhaps they are not "spam" in the common way of thinking about it, but what you post are pure informative posts without almost any actual analytical contribution. yes, you do bring some things to the game, like the pandain/wiggles defense (and, after the FOS post, your attacks on me). but the vast majority of your postings -- as can be found in my PBPA -- are not analytical at all. point 3, spoiler 4 is unfair, because i asked you a question that you did not answer. you said "what does my defense of pandain SAY?" and i told you what it said, asking for more information on your question because there had to be more to it than that; there had to be some underlying question i wasnt seeing. you never clarified and now you seek to use this as a point. unfair at best. point 3 non-spoiler 1 is categorically false. for point 3 non-spoiler 2, show me the inconsistencies please? i will be more than willing to analyze whatever holes you think exist in my case. if i miss something its entirely an error - not an unwillingness to get on the record about a topic. show me what you want me to talk about (SPECIFICALLY) and i will. point 4-2 is fair analysis, i will give you that. i personally believe you should claim to the circle if you get hit, because giving mafia more information is a horrible idea. but you can argue that GF may be in the circle, etc etc. so theres a lot of paths to go with that. realize this: the hit claim or not claim debate has nothing at all to do with the scumminess assessment. on either side. the rest of point 4 is laughable. | ||
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forgive the fact my linguistic style is one that uses many words. note the points of my analysis; if you can respond in a fraction of the space, good for you. i speak verbosely. sorry. at least i brought the first real contention to light, right? look at what i say, not how i say it. i never called you out for making statements in a verbose manner; i called you out for making statements that provide little or nothing. big difference. if you actually ANALYZED pandain then i must have missed it, because theres nothing in the PBPA id classify as actual analysis. if by this you mean that post where you defended wiggles then no i do not consider that real analysis. here is the only place you "analyzed" pandain that existed in the PBPA: "I don't believe Pandain is mafia just because he fingered Mr. Wiggles. Clearly at the time Mr. Wiggles did not contribute anything, and Pandain just voted to accent his point." is this analysis of pandain? really? if this is what you want me to talk about then i apologize for not discussing this further, because its not significant enough for me to have noted its supposed importance earlier. but okay. i agree, running a FOS doesnt make you a mafia. ok, analysis done. what now? my position on inactives is irrelevant. of course id prefer them to not be inactive. but the only way to actually "deal" with them is to get them to stop being inactive somehow or to lynch them. barring some model way to do the former (which isnt obvious considering the state of TL mafia), then the latter is all we have. and right now, we need to kill scum not inactives. so yes, my idea is "wait until later" as that is all we can do. note the whole "DT check inactives, watch out for framers" thing is not discussing what to do with inactives, it is discussing what DTs should do. say DT checks an inactive. okay. what next? theyre still inactive yes? now, you say to tell you what you should have analyzed. why am i going to give you a pass like this? why dont you come up with it and show town what you have to say on your own, other than "no u" all the way? the rest of your post makes no sense. that is my position established from above, so reiterating "no, it actually makes sense" wont change it. | ||
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On December 28 2010 06:41 LSB wrote: I went back and looked at what point you were reffering to. What analysis can I do within 60 Minutes of the game start? i was not referring to any point. i am referring to your entire game so far. | ||
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On December 28 2010 07:34 LunarDestiny wrote: I am following debates between Annul and LSB. There are something I don't get. Annul's conclusion in his first post about why LSB should be lynched. Annul, your conclusion for lynching LSB is because he have about 30 posts. All 30 posts, except 2, are posts that means nothing and pure informative posts without analysis? LSB, are your reasons for lynching Annul in page 17? -1. Giant wall of text that pretends to be contributing -2. He doesn't want to do anything about inactives -3. He makes a faulty analysis that is forced -4. Annul posts without brining anything new I will say what I think of this later, but I want to get these two points straight. my conclusion is that, yes, PLUS his insistence on going after inactives instead of scumhunting. it would be very easy for a mafia to know his team all happen to be active and then say "hey kill inactives over all else EVEN IF scummy targets exist" | ||
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On December 28 2010 07:40 LSB wrote: Indeed. 1/4 are basically the same thing. How about this. With a bit more explanation. 1) Makes posts that don't do much, but pretend to be contributing. Then congratulates himself of all the contributions that he did. This is a mafia manuver. See LMNOP in WaW mafia 2) Although Annul says inactives hurt the town, he has not done anything to attempt to deal with the problem. He has shot down all attempts at working together a solution without offering a reason, let alone an alternative. This is a decidedly anti-town maneuver, as leaving the inactives alone will lose us the game. See Pokemafia 3) Annul analysis is forced. This is incredibly telling. See my analysis on SR in TMM2, I was mafia and I made a forced junk analysis in order to try to take off heat. 1. "no u" defense again. this is precisely what i called LSB out on in the first place. we wouldnt even have these pages of debate if not for FOSing LSB. couldve just sat back and let pandain fall, very easy right? 2. see: On December 28 2010 06:52 annul wrote: my position on inactives is irrelevant. of course id prefer them to not be inactive. but the only way to actually "deal" with them is to get them to stop being inactive somehow or to lynch them. barring some model way to do the former (which isnt obvious considering the state of TL mafia), then the latter is all we have. and right now, we need to kill scum not inactives. so yes, my idea is "wait until later" as that is all we can do. 3. "forced" how? i couldve sat back and let pandain hang, right? why am i calling you out specificallly if i didnt think you were scum? the only way is if pandain and i are both mafia and i am trying to save him, and while i am not clear on pandain, i do know his wagon makes no sense. i realize saying this will mean i hang if he turns red but =\ you are scummier than he is right now. | ||
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people need to not focus on veteran status or whatever and focus on scum tells. LSB has many of them. i, too, can reveal some of a PM chain: Original Message From annul: i mean i dont really look at experience. if someone is scummy to me im going to call them out on it anyway. why give him a pass as a red just on the basis of his experience? if you think hes a red why do you want more town to follow along with his "experienced" ideas and possibly get led astray BECAUSE of that experience? light the fire imo, see what happens. | ||
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On December 28 2010 08:36 LSB wrote: My best explanation of this has to do with how I acted in Harry Potter Mafia and Pokemafia. There was this giant bandwagon on me day one, and I didn't really do much about it. In Pokemafia I just dismissed analysis against me and didn't do much about it. This game is different as Annul's analysis was horrendious and sparked some alarms. I then sat back and watched as Annul kept it up. This is why I'm openly attacking him now. + Show Spoiler + Well... Harry Potter Mafia, I didn't bother with the bandwagon because the plan was basically to get me lynched.... thanks DocH x.x yes, as you hide in spoiler text, HP mafia wagon on you was intentional and orchestrated and designed to bus you, so your behavior there is irrelevant in this context here. my analysis is fine -- you return with "no u" on multiple points as your defense. if i had such a crap argument why then do you not 1. challenge it outright and win it, such that it becomes so obvious you won (since my case would be crap); and 2. why do you then use the same case i have on you, against me, as if it is fine just so long as the target isnt you? | ||
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what is "forced?" explain this to me. what do you mean by "forced" and how does it apply (specifically) to me? | ||
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On December 28 2010 11:39 Mr.Zergling wrote: However, from HP mafia, LSB seems to always act somewhat scummy (which is why he got lynched last game). he acted scummy in HP because he was scum in HP hes acting scummy now logic twin powers activate? | ||
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 but if i think someone is a red im gonna push them until i find another and/or the counterwagon is sufficiently convincing | ||
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i post if i have something to say, i do not just post for the hell of it i read the game and out of all of what i saw, LSB shined through very brightly to me, so i FOSed and analyzed him. in other words, i had something to say. if i go silent, its because i have nothing i deem important enough to attract significant attention. | ||
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On December 29 2010 00:34 LSB wrote: Besides responding to my posts. What else has Annul contributed? Not much besides an Albus Dumbledor claim that claim happened before the game even began - you cant count that stuff in analysis. obvious HP mafia reference, too. and what have i contributed? i dunno, 90% of the fodder of day 1's debate? | ||
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On December 29 2010 00:37 LSB wrote: If you guys divert the lynch, I will prove, without a doubt, my role at the end of night two. On December 29 2010 00:37 LSB wrote: Maybe earlier so you hint at vig but then scale it back, making it not vig because you cant kill until night 2, so no "maybe earlier" what could you be hinting to here? hatter? you could only "prove" that upon death. medic? can't "prove" that "without a doubt" anyway unless you get lucky with hits. | ||
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and i meant that without my catalyst posting, 90% of day 1 wouldnt have happened. i know you contributed to half of it once it began. | ||
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so i want to know what you are. convince me and i will drop my attack until the time comes when you say you can prove it and cant actually prove it. | ||
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why pass up on a likely red today? we give up on you in favor of something else and its less likely to get a red. say we DO lynch you day 3 - that is day 1 and day 2 of possibly killing town. this means possibly two more nights with mafia having 3 KP. who knows what the KP will be when you die? if it doesnt change, then we get the chance to drop a mafia day 2 and possibly put it lower then. the point is this: if you are mafia and we let you get away with this blue claim, even for 2 days, if in your mind the only point behind this is to stall for time, its still at the cost of 1, maybe 2 town through a higher mafia KP. the question is then do you believe this claim enough to risk sacrificing 1 or 2 players (or more) to prove it? right now, i dont think so. | ||
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my rhetoric is "he realizes he is about to go... he is going to try to save himself." | ||
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they did. it was the smarter move to not blow the power the next day, so i didnt. they still had no idea if i was guerilla or not. | ||
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... but my point is i could have been or i could have been scum, town has no idea. if LSB is a blue he can make a believable claim on day 3 "HEY the smart move is to stfu about my power" ... and town has no idea if he is being sincere or if he is mafia and unable to prove himself. so the point of this is to question whether you believe the blue claim, in light of all the happenings, not to make an automatic "get off the blue" decision. every single mafia in this game would be smart to claim blue in the situation LSB did whether he is or is not blue. that is my main point. | ||
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at least you are viewing it from the proper lens: "i do not believe the analysis" and not "the analysis was good BUT he claimed blue so we should at least give him until day 3 before we really kill him" | ||
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its not like we lose nothing keeping him around. we need to view it as "is it worth losing one more townie if he turns out to be red" | ||
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hatter: cant prove it unless you die vig: cant prove it within the rules medic: cant prove it (actually you can, but its ridic difficult to do) DT: cant prove it (framers/GF/etc not to mention potential for "checking" your mafia teammate who of course will confirm) | ||
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On December 29 2010 04:42 Insanious wrote: I don't see LSB as a red, he doesn't look red to me then this is your real reson. its not his blue claim, its "i do not believe annul's analysis." | ||
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in scenario 2, yes this is true. in scenario 3, 1. fuck me; 2. this won't happen. i also think the "1 blue > 2 green" is flawed -- you cannot assume it will be extra greens who get night killed. it is more than probable to include at least 1 other blue (if LSB is blue himself). so you trade 1 blue 1 green for 1 blue? assume there are 6 mafia. 24 town. assume there are 10 blues. 1-((14/24)*(13/23)) = 67.03% chance to kill at least 1 blue using purely RNG kills. | ||
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also means his defense to my attack was pretty horrible | ||
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rofl it was a bus of course you arent going to claim blue because you are being bussed! your goal was death. | ||
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On December 29 2010 05:44 LSB wrote: So do you think I'm mafia? It doesn't sound like it. no, ive only been sitting on you the entire game because i dont think youre mafia | ||
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On December 29 2010 06:33 bumatlarge wrote: I'm sure that LSB wouldn't lie if he wasn't scum what? FOS bumatlarge ;\ | ||
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On December 29 2010 06:51 bumatlarge wrote: Speaking of which annul, why are you against this? By all means LSB shouldnt be able to kill you since he is scum, right? If he is vig then there is a better chance of you being scum then most people. i am not for or against any plan yet i am against a contention that scum wont lie | ||
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ill copy what i told him in PMs here too: Original Message From annul: there is nobody better to kill today than LSB. if you agree LSB is 99% mafia then find me someone who is 99.1% mafia to go after instead. its not like sengoku where you do not have to vote someone each day cycle. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: ? IF he doesn't give proof by start of day 2, we lynch him. Plain and simple. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From annul: theres a 100% kill somewhere? ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: unvote lsb we'll be able to lynch him tommorow, or at the very least vigi him tommorow night. I think he's scum, but let's go for the 100% | ||
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"I THINK HES SCUM, BUT..." but what? if you think hes scum, kill him. if he really had a plan that he could reveal at the start of day 2 he could reveal it now. nothing changes in night 1 that cant be solved for (medic protection on him if he is really so important), etc. realize night 1 is the only period of time passing from now and when he says he will reveal his master plan | ||
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"OH NO NO NO i wasnt really trying to defend him, see im saying hes scum to me!" | ||
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if there is a "99%" chance he is mafia, the only thing you can gain is 1% certainty by waiting. in exchange for this 1% certainty, assume we attack someone on RNG basis. we give up 80% certainty today and, in exchange for ONE PERCENT chance to save a blue, we take a ~33% chance of randoming a "different" blue. an actual blue. | ||
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i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based. | ||
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unless something actually changes, you all have my case, you all have LSB's case. you all have what has transpired to go through. go forth and vote, we have 3.75 hours | ||
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what is with this push for brocket all of a sudden? what has brocket even done? stop going off target. LSB is a much better kill than brocket. | ||
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why are we effectively giving up our day 1 vote? this is such a horrible idea it isnt even funny. what will killing brocket gain us? what information? none. none whatsoever. taking down LSB however will give us a multitude of information. | ||
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On December 29 2010 10:31 Insanious wrote: and since there have been 4 people comming out of no where to defend Brocket it makes me think Brocket is even more red. maybe its people coming out against horrible ideas with no basis in fact or analysis? | ||
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shockey, georgeclooney, d3_crescentia, tevo all gonna be modkilled for illegal voting too | ||
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isnt it like always illegal? | ||
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in HP it was illegal to vote for yourself | ||
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tell me, how can you prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that you are a veteran? | ||
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On December 30 2010 09:02 deconduo wrote: I don't think annul is maf, but he deserves to be lynched.. uh what | ||
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On December 30 2010 07:02 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: When it comes to Annul, I was really trying to find another candidate who I could put up as a MH bomb because when I divide the player list by 3 instead of 2 it GREATLY reduces the chance of overlapping bombs. On top of that the way Annul got support is a little fishy, I need to do more analysis on it but it is still extremely strange. The bandwagon IMO should never have been so lopsided in favor of LSB even though I think LSB was suspicious, it is really hard to gather a following on a day 1 lynch UNLESS you are mafia. With that justification and an indepth analysis of Annul being very time consuming at the moment I would prefer to put a bomb on him while doing a further analysis later. "lets kill annul but i cant really explain why" preempting the retort: "but i did explain why!" more than 5 or 6 or whatever players joined my wagon. this means IF your contention would be right, then at least some townies also agreed (hell, YOU did). therefore my logic was not bad. LSB lied hardcore to save his ass. so, if the town agreed, why does that mean i am mafia? | ||
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On December 30 2010 11:16 bumatlarge wrote: Annul never calls him out on this facet of being either vig or scum. i called him out on having no possible role with which his claim would fit... close enough? | ||
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On December 30 2010 12:35 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: right now I would prefer to go after Annul but I feel to get the backing on that would require very hard analysis. Tonight's hits make me think Annul is likely mafia and I can explain why. knowing you i am sure it will come, yes yes? | ||
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no role exists in this game that can do that. | ||
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"DT checks him" is not PROVEN. could be fake DT, who knows? no GUARANTEE that mafia would hit him night 1. so, before night 2 is 100% not a guaranteed proof. after night 2 there is no PROOF the vig would hit him. in fact no vig would blow his load on LSB to "prove" veteran status. losing the vig shot is strictly worse for us than losing a veteran. the point is yes there were many ways he COULD show he was a veteran IF the right people acted and IF the town believed their words, but as for PROOF, there was none. he claimed he could prove it. he couldnt. | ||
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On December 30 2010 16:23 why wrote: If red, we wouldn't be hurt that much by having a red in the town for a couple more days, especially since we could then analyze his behavior and voting more. higher KP | ||
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what | ||
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On December 31 2010 18:01 Incognito wrote: Day has been extended and will end on Saturday at 10:00 EST. 10:00 = 10 AM? do you mean 22:00? | ||
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On January 01 2011 04:12 Mr.Zergling wrote: Ok, so I had a blue role in HP mafia (we all kind of did). less than half the town did ;\ | ||
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PM logs are just as forgeable and people accept them all the time | ||
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i just woke up. i went to a party last night and got home at 7:30 am im a flat green. i got LSB wrong, yeah. sorry about that, i tried. but so did a bunch of other people so its not really all my bad. i sort of expected retribution but apparently i wake up to see a wagon on my ass despite like everybody saying they were on my side regardless. i guess they arent now. | ||
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voting to save my ass | ||
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i remember thinking "the two misters" as my wanted votes tbh i didnt expect to have to actually think in this game today. | ||
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On January 02 2011 07:19 LunarDestiny wrote: But now, you are unvoting and voting without giving explanation. That is the reason that I am voting for you. isnt true anymore? | ||
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people say "he was active day 1 now hes not, vote annul" yeah at least i was active day 1, as opposed to many people who were inactive both day 1 and day 2 if i have something to put forward i do so, as you saw. if i dont, i sit back and wait until i do. this is my style. note in haunted i pretty much said nothing of value until near the end of day 2 (3?) when i decided it was time to win the game for my red team. note in insane i said nothing until i wanted to win mayor (failed attempt, but still) as a blue. note in salem i said nothing pretty much the whole game because, imagine that, i had nothing to say. i was green that game. so whatever color i am this is how i play. it doesnt make me red or blue or green, since TL has seen me do it while every color. THIS game though, i gave the town what it needed: activity. otherwise it would devolve into a normal TL mafia town with a bunch of nothing happening. i got shit moving, even if i was wrong in the end. if i were red i should just let town self-implode like it tends to do, yes? i decided to actually, you know, play the game. and hope others followed along. i cannot carry the town's analysis and wagoning every single day. why you expect me to i dont know | ||
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On January 02 2011 08:41 orgolove wrote: when not a single one of your assumed scum buddies of mine has risen up to my defense since the suspicion placed on me. same can be said for me fyi - except those who now seem to constitute the wagon in the first place | ||
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On January 02 2011 08:43 Barundar wrote: I would like to take this opportunity to thank RoL for confirming my suspicions. He is not a blue. He is the godfather. Since mafia has given up on annul, this means we get to lynch red tonight. i claimed green dude, i never claimed blue. | ||
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i disagreed with his strategic advice. he was scum to me for the overall package. "On top of that Annul suggests blind claiming to some town circle, as if all members of a town circle are confirmed and known." you suggest claiming to the entire game. difference? "This is kind of intuition I guess you could call it. The only reason someone would feel the need to post this last part is because hes trying to avoid what seems like a mafia slip that being knowing the exact number of mafia members." the same logic in reverse you used to call someone else out. make up your mind "I am not going to do an EVERY SINGLE FUCKING POST analysis of him. Its a waste of time and is redundant, especially in Annul's case" maybe because you singled out what you thought were the 3 "weakest" points (theyre not) and attacked them? at least i had the nuts to go full bore when i call someone out. why not put yourself on the line too? "The mafia could of EASILY attacked and probably killed Annul Day 2 because of his fuck up, but instead Annul goes very quiet, and most people simply pretend it didn't happen. But why would the mafia not attack Annul if its such an easy innocent for them to reasonably attack without garnering too much suspicion?" uhhhhhhhhhhhhh i think you just claimed mafia here bro "When I told him this Annul told me how he thought that was a good meta to build up, and then started talking to be about his Pitbullish play style that he tries to create and how he will attack anyone who "looks" suspicious whether he is mafia or town" thats not what i told you. inc logs: http://pastebin.com/QCjHAQR6 read the first day's chats | ||
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Subject: yo Date: 1/2/11 09:39 vote annul orgo can wait till tommmorow lol pandain is obviously mass messaging this crap to people why not just say it in thread if you are gonna do that? | ||
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i never thought orgo was red, i just needed to save my ass so i voted him i actually always thought ROL was red. not like it matters, but im revoting ROL | ||
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i never thought orgo was red, i just needed to save my ass so i voted him i actually always thought ROL was red. not like it matters, but im revoting ROL | ||
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what this experience teaches players is that by sticking their neck out and creating discussion, it makes them vulnerable. so they do not analyze. this is why TL mafia is so boring these days. i tried to at least make the game interesting. i could have sat back and let the wagon roll on pandain so easily, but oh well from now on, expect players to keep the boring state of the game active, for that is the smart play, apparently. | ||
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also, in this dumbass extension. what the hell is that? it gave town an unfair advantage really | ||
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we would probably play on if we were only down one. but two? | ||
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i will stop reading this game now. if by some miracle we manage to win, then hooooooly shit. otherwise i expect gg soon and we can stop wasting time and get to XXXVI | ||
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On January 09 2011 12:09 Mr. Wiggles wrote: Mafia really sucks at blue-sniping  .cuz im dead ;] | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + 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why and d3 are the remaining mafia. | ||
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town, just realize how much more of a rape it wouldve been if 40% my team wasnt AFK. framer and godfather role had NO power this game, since there were no DTs. the only role the roleblocker could hit was the vig (since there were only vets and vigs). so the roleblocker was very gimp too. i dont like the role setup for this game, but alas. btw, i knew ROL was vet on day 1 so thats why he lived. he can confirm too, i called it in AIM | ||
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On January 17 2011 12:50 d3_crescentia wrote: I kind of feel the same way. Still, I'm gonna save my thoughts until after the official end of game post. i wouldnt steal the thunder normally but flamewheel has been posting "INACTIVE" picture with no flavor so i figure its no different now, its not like hes writing a long epic post etc and hes an hour late so | ||
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On January 17 2011 12:56 why wrote: lol you could have told us that, we would have doubled up on him night 2... i wouldve rather he not be doubled. id rather us keep whittling down 3 a night and not 2 a night. and i think there was a good chance to run the "he bussed me" line later down the game if he was still alive. run the wifom circle, "ROL is still alive on day what, 6? kill that fool" | ||
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hes gonna try to PM FUCKING EVERYONE and claim any blue he can when he is green or blue or red, its what he does. | ||
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On January 17 2011 13:57 Pandain wrote: Well we can ask. Annul, is this true in what you did? If so, I bow down to your knowledge of psychology LSB. no. that was not even in my mind. i saw LSB's initial set of posts and said to myself "i can use this." and went on offense. it was my goal to appear townlike. i know TL towns usually dont lynch the accuser after a day 1 wagon flips town. just the sense i get. so i figured if i went balls out on LSB, when he flipped, id be safe day 2. in my mind, i was trying to play as town as i could day 1 while picking a target to attack. i figured there was enough suspicious from LSB to start the ball moving. | ||
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), whereas LSB's defense and contribution seems a lot more like his posting in Pokemafia, where he was green.
