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annul
United States2841 Posts
hatter: cant prove it unless you die vig: cant prove it within the rules medic: cant prove it (actually you can, but its ridic difficult to do) DT: cant prove it (framers/GF/etc not to mention potential for "checking" your mafia teammate who of course will confirm) | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On December 29 2010 04:42 Insanious wrote: I don't see LSB as a red, he doesn't look red to me then this is your real reson. its not his blue claim, its "i do not believe annul's analysis." | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
in scenario 2, yes this is true. in scenario 3, 1. fuck me; 2. this won't happen. i also think the "1 blue > 2 green" is flawed -- you cannot assume it will be extra greens who get night killed. it is more than probable to include at least 1 other blue (if LSB is blue himself). so you trade 1 blue 1 green for 1 blue? assume there are 6 mafia. 24 town. assume there are 10 blues. 1-((14/24)*(13/23)) = 67.03% chance to kill at least 1 blue using purely RNG kills. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
also means his defense to my attack was pretty horrible | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
rofl it was a bus of course you arent going to claim blue because you are being bussed! your goal was death. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On December 29 2010 05:44 LSB wrote: So do you think I'm mafia? It doesn't sound like it. no, ive only been sitting on you the entire game because i dont think youre mafia | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On December 29 2010 06:33 bumatlarge wrote: I'm sure that LSB wouldn't lie if he wasn't scum what? FOS bumatlarge ;\ | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On December 29 2010 06:51 bumatlarge wrote: Speaking of which annul, why are you against this? By all means LSB shouldnt be able to kill you since he is scum, right? If he is vig then there is a better chance of you being scum then most people. i am not for or against any plan yet i am against a contention that scum wont lie | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
ill copy what i told him in PMs here too: Original Message From annul: there is nobody better to kill today than LSB. if you agree LSB is 99% mafia then find me someone who is 99.1% mafia to go after instead. its not like sengoku where you do not have to vote someone each day cycle. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: ? IF he doesn't give proof by start of day 2, we lynch him. Plain and simple. ----------------------------------------- Original Message From annul: theres a 100% kill somewhere? ----------------------------------------- Original Message From Pandain: unvote lsb we'll be able to lynch him tommorow, or at the very least vigi him tommorow night. I think he's scum, but let's go for the 100% | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
"I THINK HES SCUM, BUT..." but what? if you think hes scum, kill him. if he really had a plan that he could reveal at the start of day 2 he could reveal it now. nothing changes in night 1 that cant be solved for (medic protection on him if he is really so important), etc. realize night 1 is the only period of time passing from now and when he says he will reveal his master plan | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
"OH NO NO NO i wasnt really trying to defend him, see im saying hes scum to me!" | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
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annul
United States2841 Posts
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annul
United States2841 Posts
if there is a "99%" chance he is mafia, the only thing you can gain is 1% certainty by waiting. in exchange for this 1% certainty, assume we attack someone on RNG basis. we give up 80% certainty today and, in exchange for ONE PERCENT chance to save a blue, we take a ~33% chance of randoming a "different" blue. an actual blue. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
i do not have a 6/30 chance of feeling correctly. my "feelings" are not RNG-based. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
unless something actually changes, you all have my case, you all have LSB's case. you all have what has transpired to go through. go forth and vote, we have 3.75 hours | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
what is with this push for brocket all of a sudden? what has brocket even done? stop going off target. LSB is a much better kill than brocket. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
why are we effectively giving up our day 1 vote? this is such a horrible idea it isnt even funny. what will killing brocket gain us? what information? none. none whatsoever. taking down LSB however will give us a multitude of information. | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
On December 29 2010 10:31 Insanious wrote: and since there have been 4 people comming out of no where to defend Brocket it makes me think Brocket is even more red. maybe its people coming out against horrible ideas with no basis in fact or analysis? | ||
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annul
United States2841 Posts
shockey, georgeclooney, d3_crescentia, tevo all gonna be modkilled for illegal voting too | ||
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