EPTTL Mafia XXXV - Page 2
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
First, Meapak is almost 100% scum considering his voting patterns around annul. Hmm - as I mentioned, MrZergling wanted me to respond to GGQ's analysis through a PM. I don't think a mafia would have the initiative - a red would just want me to quietly roll over. So no, I don't think he's it. Shockeyy and GeorgeClooney, hardcore lurkers - we don't have much to go on. Looking at the voting patterns: Shockeyy: Day 1 - voted for himself. Day 2 - Voted for Pandain. Day 3 - voted for Barundar/Pandain. Pretty suspicious, given how he's tried to hide information in day 1 then voted for two most probable townies. GeorgeClooney: Day 1 - voted for himself. Day 2 - voted for tree.hugger, who had voted him Day 3 - Hasn't voted yet What I'm saying is, both these guys had votes that were basically wasted, but were never pressured. As an aside, looking at tree.hugger: Day 1 - Pandain Day 2 - GeorgeClooney, then changed to Pandain day 3 - Changed to Meapak_Ziph and DarthIenAn Doesn't seem too suspicious to me. DarthIenAn: Day 1 - can't find his vote Day 2 - voted for me, never changed his vote Day 3 - No vote Hmm... I don't know. Maybe he's become discouraged during day 3 because of mounting votes and just gave up? Maybe he's one of the inactive mafias Node was mad at? Btw, pandain is definitely a blue, since among annul's last few emotionally charged posts, there's this gem: On January 02 2011 12:00 annul wrote: expect a concession soon. i could have sat back and let the wagon roll on pandain so easily, but oh well And um. Have we had any dt town confirmations that were revealed? Anyone? | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
1. ~OpZ~, did you explain your vig hit? What happened and why did a vet die? Did you hit RoL as well or what? 2. Meapak - if you continue to claim green, can you explain why you changed your vote from annul when his vote got close with my total during day 2? And according to a bird, you had gone to IRC and scolded people for voting on annul. What's with that? | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
And do we even have medics? We got absolutely no medic saves. The hell? | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On January 07 2011 05:43 Pandain wrote: Okay hi I'm back. First off I have some bad news. I'm going to a model UN conference and won't be back until Sunday around 5PM. So until then I can't help you scum hunt. However, there are a couple things I want to comment on/note/talk about. Good. Town can stop sheeping to your fake DT claim and actually learn to think for themselves. On January 07 2011 05:43 Pandain wrote: First off I was roleblocked again. My ass. Your only "check" you've revealed was that DrH was green. AFTER he was killed. Good job. And surprise surprise, for two days in a row, the reds never even came close to hitting you, despite your early claim as DT - aka highest priority target. Hmmmm. On January 07 2011 05:43 Pandain wrote: This indicates to me that mafia will probably keep on doing this because: 1)They know I'm DT, and this will be a succeful roleblock 2.)They might try to cast doubt on my role as DT Sure. Just like they blocked you on day 2 and day 3, and you never claimed to be roleblocked on day 2. Right. On January 07 2011 05:43 Pandain wrote: But I still have good fashioned scum hunting, so I'm going to leave you with a bit of my thoughts. Let's take a look at the player list: 3. SeRapH 5. Brocket 6. TheMango 7. Mr.Zergling 8. why 9. Jackal58 11. 15. ShoCkeyy 17. ilovejonn 18. Insanious 19. Orgolove 24. d3_crescentia 29. Given that mafia KP went down after 2 died, and the fact that most likely there were 6/7(likely 6, 7 seems too big) mafia in the start, the formula for mafia kp is most likely # of mafia/2. So now there are probably either 4/5(likely 4) mafia remaining. I figure one of the best things I can do to help figure out who's still suspicious is to seperate the pro town from the rest. First off, who's pro town in my eyes: Me:  Opz:Confirmed Mr. Wiggles: Posts long posts when he does, good content in them Barundar: Has been with me in a while, good reads from him on irc. In addition contributing to discussion. Insanious: Like Barundar, except not in constant contact with me. Still, very pro town in my eyes. Why: Doesn't post much, but those posts are long when he does. People who I feel are likely town, but less sure of: Jackal58 The Mango Shockeyy People Who I don't know: Soulfire- seriously need to post more Tree hugger-posts long, but hardly posts People who I think are mafia but unsure D3-hardly posts except when pressured. Seraph-RoL's main suspect, this guy has been pretty suspicious. Aside from an analysis about Soulfire, Seraph hasn't really contributed that much. People I think are mafia IloveJonn-from weak thoughts to excuses for not analyzing, from making contradictions like saying we shouldn't just follow what other people think and then vote someone based on what someone else said, for weak vote reasons, this guy is suspicious. Orgolove-Come on, it really can't still be considered "the holidays." Mr Zergling Has been playing really scummy. For example, said in beginning we should be lynching inactives and then hasn't voted for an inactive sent. Defended Annul, and did a soft attempt at keeping the bandwagon on Orgolove. Right now really the only thing saving him is that he's playing similar to his last game as town. How nice of you to put your thoughts in your list. Now we know who NOT to lynch. Hint: you contributed to four lynches so far, and you hit 2 blue and 2 green out of it. The only lynch you tried to dissuade people from - annul - we actually hit a red. Coincidence? I think not. And "holidays" my ass. I've been having positive contributions to town way more than your "analysis." You apologize about how you're going to be inactive the next few days, then claim I don't post enough? Riiight. On January 07 2011 05:43 Pandain wrote: Finally, remember everyone should claim to Opz. He is confirmed, 100%. Let me repeat that. Him being vigi is the ONLY POSSIBLE way for three kills to have happened that night. The sole remaining DT, you are the most important person right now. The people who you have found green are confirmed without a shadow of a doubt. The people who are found red you should tell Opz and then he will say so in thread so you remain safe. Medics need to claim so more coordination. Hatters need to claim for more coordination. There is no reason for anyone not to claim to Opz. Yeah right. If ~OpZ~ indeed was a town-aligned , then why did he hit RoL, of all people, instead of an inactive, as he originally claimed? Even if he's town-aligned, I can't trust him to be smart enough to coordinate the remaining blues to the town's benefit. You. Need. To. Stop. Talking. Your "good-old fashioned scumhunting" killed four townies, two of them blue, and led us to waste our double lynch. Your open IRC idea was shit. Utterly shit. All it did was give scum even more tools to manipulate the votes and opinions of the town. Care to hurt us any more? If, as you claim, the mafia's going to perma roleblock you, then you no longer have any value to us. So quit talking. -------------- And town, we need the double lynch again. We may have been unlucky the last time, but the reds can't possibly sneak their way out of it two times in a row. And the double lynch is our last tool remaining. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
And yet you guys just follow pandain's lead. How many more do we have to kill before you ignore his posts. -_- My god. I can just see us loinsg the game even after getting the godfather in the second day. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On January 08 2011 04:37 seRapH wrote: I suppose I should still post to not get modkilled. Would a red really post something like this? -_- Sounds more like a townie being resigned. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On January 08 2011 08:16 ShoCkeyy wrote: You don't get the point of this game... Reds to make themselves non noticable of course they can post like this... Lol. You don't get the point of this, do you. Even at this point, when we're so close the lynch, we've seen not a single counter bandwagon, nor a single post defending him. Is that not extremely suspicious? We've already seen ~OpZ~ make a mistake in hitting LSB. And we've also seen that following Pandain's lead flatly killed two townies outright, one of them being blue. And yet all the town is just sheeping along with their claims, without a single bit of hard evidence against them. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On January 08 2011 17:15 Barundar wrote: Most likely 12 v 3 tomorrow. This means we can afford a mislynch, so at this point if it can shut the discussion up we can kill our own unopposed DT claim. It would be completely retarded ofcourse. That Brocket is mafia means the people who switched to him day 1 are most likely town. These are: why, Mr.Zergling, Mr.Wiggles, Soulfire and Jackal58. Orgolove is quickly popping up on my radar again. He was strictly opposing IRC, and so far not one person who has been on there has been mafia. Before annul got lynched, he posted: He is actually the only one questioning the annul lynch. He was one of the driving forces behind getting meapak lynched: But when Meapak was innocent, orgolove posted: Saying we had no choice. Would be nice for a mafia to remove doubts as to his own involvement in the lynch? Let’s not forget who it was that actually did the only attempt of diverting the lynch... Tries to blame Pandain for the Seraph lynch. Handy if you know he isn’t guilty, and want to lynch a DT, right? And afterwards: Well gratz on being right on Seraph, but wrong on annul and Meapak. Just look at how Meapak acted. Right when annul hit the vote mark where his total was even with me, he immediately switched his vote from annul. It was 99% a red who first voted for each other, but then realized they might be the deciding vote so changed it when it became close. The sealing deal was reports by people that mentioned he yelled at people in the stupid IRC to stop voting for annul. Tell me, what else would any of us have thought if you had acted like this? I was 100% certain that he was red. And if I play another mafia game and see someone acting like that again, then I will have no qualms voting him as a red. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
On January 09 2011 13:56 DarthThienAn wrote: List of currently alive players: 6. TheMango 7. Mr.Zergling 8. why 9. Jackal58 11. Barundar 15. ShoCkeyy 17. ilovejonn 19. Orgolove 20. Pandain 24. d3_crescentia 27. Soulfire 29. DarthThienAn 30. ~OpZ~ 13 total, so 10 vs 3 imo - Considering that no blues are dead still, I'd say Opz is pretty confirmed. My mafia list from before still stands (minus dead): pandain, d3, shockeyy, jackal58 havent heard from TheMango in awhile o.o is he still in the game? Do we even have a DT? Now that there's so few left, it would be nice for the dt to message OpZ then, and tell him your results. And no, not you, Pandain. Unless you have a result that turned up red today? | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
1. RebirthOfLegend (switched from Insanious) 2. Meapak_Ziphh (switched from Seraph) 3. Barundar 4. Pandain At this point, Meapak changed his vote from annul to seraph 5. d3_crescentia (switched from orgolove) 6. lunardestiny 7. Mr.Wiggles (switched from orgolove) At this point, voting was ending in 3.5 hours, and there were still more votes for me over annul. 8. Mr.Zergling (switched from pandain to mrwiggles to node) 9. Meapak_Ziphh (again) 10. ilovejonn (switched from voting for himself) 11. node (switched from orgolove) voting was ending in 1.5 hours. 12. why (switched from seraph) Considering how close this vote was, we can get a lot of information about who's red and who's not. Especially since node was the godfather - reds would be foolish to have voted from him from the very beginning. Looking at it, first, I think Barundar and Pandain are safely town. I think we should look at the people who switched their votes during the last second, namely Mr.Zergling and ilovejonn. I especially consider Mr.Zergling to be suspicious, given how he switched his votes three times during the course of the day, and only switched to node at the very last second. ... another townie can look at their other voting behaviors and find more evidence. But my vote is on Mr.Zergling. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
DT this game, you are fucking useless. | ||
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
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orgolove
Vatican City State1650 Posts
6. TheMango LSB Mr.Wiggles Meapak_Ziphh <--Night Vote barundar-->DarThienAn-->GeorgeClooney Seraph DarThienAn 7. Mr.Zergling LSB-->Brocket Pandain-->Mr.Wiggles-->Meapak_Ziphh-->orgolove-->Node TheMango-->DarThienAn-->GeorgeClooney Seraph Shockeyy 8. why ~OpZ~-->Brocket Seraph-->annul Meapak_Ziphh Seraph Seraph soulfire soulfire Mr.Zergling 9. Jackal58 LSB-->TheMango-->Brocket RebirthOfLegenD-->Mr.Zergling-->Orgolove TheMango-->Meapak_Ziphh-->GeorgeClooney DarThienAn Seraph-->Pandain Pandain-->TheMango 15. ShoCkeyy Shockeyy pandain Barundar pandain pandain pandain 17. ilovejonn why-->~OpZ~ ilovejonn-->annul Mr.Zergling Meapak_Ziphh-->Seraph Seraph soulfire 20. Pandain Mr.Wiggles-->jackal58 shockey-->LSB-->d3_crescentia-->LSB orgolove-->annul DarThienAn-->Meapak_Ziphh soulfire-->GeorgeClooney Seraph soulfire-->TheMango-->DarThienAn 24. d3_crescentia d3_crescentia-->said he'd change vote, but never did orgolove-->annul DarThienAn Meapak_Ziphh DarThienAn DarThienAn 27. Soulfire LSB-->Brocket-->LSB Mr.Wiggles GeorgeClooney DarThienAn Seraph pandain ---------------------- Five days of votes give us plenty of data to look for. 1. TheMango is clearly a red. Do I even need to explain this? 0 red votes, night vote on a green before day, 0 red votes, 0 red votes, 0 red votes. Only player with 0 red votes. All his votes have been confirmed green or blue. Need I say any more? 2. Shockeyy and d3_crescentia have been focusing their votes on a single player, and never changed their votes. Given that reds are usually coordinated and would try to set up their votes. so I doubt they're red. 3. MrZergling and Pandain seem more like a townie who can't make up his mind. For these two, look at day two posts, when there was a real danger between me or Node, the godfather. Both of them changed their votes a lot, and eventually settled on Node. I'm not 100% about this, but I think a red would probably try to stack their votes on me early on, and keep it there unless it was very clear that their godfather would die. Since they changed their votes so many times during that pivotal day... I don't think they're red. 4. Going from assumption #1, we can see if TheMango's votes were the default mafia vote they decided during night. The vote record for the two confirmed reds are as below: annul LSB Mr.Wiggles-->Mr.Zergling-->orgolove-->RebirthOfLegenD Brocket LSB insanious insanious-->DarThienAn Jackal58-->Mr.Zergling Tevo Tevo Interesting, isn't it. Ignoring the two inactives (brocket, tevo), TheMango's and Annul's first votes of the first two days match, and so does Soulfire. Comparing TheMango and Soulfire's votes, the first votes of the 1st, 2nd, and 4th days match. And their targets mostly lined up, although soulfire's last vote of Pandain may be due to him just deciding to stop PMing or something. We have our second mafia here. 6. Continuing from above, Mr.Zergling is a green considering how much the reds have tried to lynch him. 7. And finally. I'm green. Since hey. I know what I am. Putting all this together, we have this: 6. TheMango 7. Mr.Zergling 8. why 9. Jackal58 15. ShoCkeyy 17. ilovejonn 19. Orgolove 20. Pandain 24. d3_crescentia 27. Soulfire The alignment of the remaining three will be more easily determined once today's lynch is settled. For now, based on this evidence, I am voting for TheMango soulfire 1. If TheMango is red but soulfire is green, why and ilovejonn are red. 2. If both are red, then it'll be more difficult to tell between the two, but I think why will be the other red since he was so fast in trying to start a bandwagon against Mr.Zergling so early in the day, when he's clearly a green at this point. | ||
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