EPTJust... wow.
I'm starting to think that with the number of vets we had there are very few medics in this setup...
TL Mafia XXXV - Page 2
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
Just... wow. I'm starting to think that with the number of vets we had there are very few medics in this setup... | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
On January 10 2011 14:20 orgolove wrote: + Show Spoiler + People who voted for Annul, in order: 1. RebirthOfLegend (switched from Insanious) 2. Meapak_Ziphh (switched from Seraph) 3. Barundar 4. Pandain At this point, Meapak changed his vote from annul to seraph 5. d3_crescentia (switched from orgolove) 6. lunardestiny 7. Mr.Wiggles (switched from orgolove) At this point, voting was ending in 3.5 hours, and there were still more votes for me over annul. 8. Mr.Zergling (switched from pandain to mrwiggles to node) 9. Meapak_Ziphh (again) 10. ilovejonn (switched from voting for himself) 11. node (switched from orgolove) voting was ending in 1.5 hours. 12. why (switched from seraph) Considering how close this vote was, we can get a lot of information about who's red and who's not. Especially since node was the godfather - reds would be foolish to have voted from him from the very beginning. Looking at it, first, I think Barundar and Pandain are safely town. I think we should look at the people who switched their votes during the last second, namely Mr.Zergling and ilovejonn. I especially consider Mr.Zergling to be suspicious, given how he switched his votes three times during the course of the day, and only switched to node at the very last second. ... another townie can look at their other voting behaviors and find more evidence. But my vote is on Mr.Zergling. This is one of the things that keep Pandain as town in my mind - why would he orchestrate a successful massive townie wagon on his own GF? That just seems illogical and unlikely. There's also the votes that stayed on you on Day 2 - Jackal, DTA. Of these I'm still thinking of DTA, who hasn't posted much if at all recently after dodging a lynch on Day 3. Then there's Day 3 votes on GeorgeClooney, which notably have Soulfire, and Jackal to a lesser extent of suspicion at the end of the train. Here's what I think of the Day 1 votes: On December 29 2010 11:45 flamewheel wrote: Vote Count for Day 1 Votes for ShOckeyy (1) ShoCkeyy Votes for Pandain (1) tree.hugger Votes for LSB (12) annul TheMango orgolove DoctorHelvetica Meapak_Ziphh Brocket Barundar LunarDestiny bumatlarge Pandain Soulfire Mr. Wiggles Votes for seRapH (1) RebirthOfLeGenD Votes for annul (3) seRapH Node deconduo Votes for why (1) Ryuu314 Votes for ~OpZ~ (1) ilovejonn Votes for GeorgeClooney (1) GeorgeClooney Votes for d3_crescentia (1) d3_crescentia Votes for Tevo (1) Tevo Votes for RebirthOfLeGenD (1) ~OpZ~ Votes for Brocket (6) Insanious LSB why Jackal58 Mr.Zergling GGQ If there is a mistake please let me know. Voting ends in 15 minutes, and any votes tallied after the 12:00 KST timestamp will not be accepted. Considering the large amount of votes on LSB on Day 1, there is likely 1 more mafia on that list. If it's Soulfire, then great. If not, then we have TheMango/Jackal/orgolove to look at. There might be one on the Brocket list as well for balance, but considering one of annul's earlier comments I think we'd have better luck looking at the lurkers/single voters - Ryuu/DTA, Shockeyy and ilovejonn. Again I'm going to push for DTA today, since his death at the very least should give us more of an idea on Soulfire/Mr. Zergling/Jackal. | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
At this point in time I'm fairly certain that there are no town investigation roles. I've been spending a bit of time looking back at the annul lynch, and I think it's fair to say that there's no way Pandain is red. I simply don't understand why he would push for the annul lynch so hard unless there was some deep mind-fuckery going on here - and I don't think Pandain is capable of that kind of subtlety. RoL died and we went on to Day 3. We all pored over his list of suspicious but we never thought too deeply into why RoL was shot in the first place. After looking at some of his posts, I think this is why the mafia hit him. On January 03 2011 03:52 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: The one thing I will say now is look at how Annul posted towards his death. The guy is pissed, especially over activity. On top of that he was the godfather which made no sense at all. Judging by his anger and him being godfather, I would say chances are most of his mafia comrades are lurkers, which the exception of maybe 1-2 posting a little more. One of the most glaring errors in your argument is this. If I am mafia, and annul was mafia. Then why am I not the godfather if I am so good? On January 03 2011 03:59 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote: Oh and DT's tonight. All I want you to do is CHECK LURKERS. I believe most of mafia team (probably 2-3 of them) are in there and we can't analyze lurkers. It would be stupid for the mafia to try to frame one, and odds are even if they try you won't overlap. As for the list of lurkers, here is what I have: 7. Mr.Zergling 8. why 9. Jackal58 15. ShoCkeyy 19. Orgolove 24. d3_crescentia 27. Soulfire 30. ~OpZ~ Thats 11 people. Now since the Godfather is dead, any returns that are BLUE, or any returns you have gotten on people that are blue are 100%. In fact, anyone who has been returned town is guaranteed innocent right now. Now consider it thusly: Mafia have been shooting all game in the hopes of hitting a blue, but more so just looking to hit the more active players. The large majority of this list is still alive. We should have been looking at this list from the get-go. I'm kind of surprised TheMango isn't on this list as well, but I haven't paid much attention to him other than a little question mark in my notes, so maybe he's town. Quite possible considering I haven't really been putting that much time in this game. Since we're approaching lylo now, it's probably time for me to change that. | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
We need to reconsider the people that haven't really been put under pressure at this point - Zergling, why, Jackal. We ALSO need to look at the vote list before Pandain started asking us to change our votes: + Show Spoiler + On January 14 2011 05:04 flamewheel wrote: Vote Tally for Day 6 Double Lynch Soulfire (4): Mr.Zergling, Mr.Zergling (2): why, TheMango (4): Mr.Zergling, Pandain (4): Jackal58, Jackal58 (1): TheMango d3_crescentia (1): ilovejonn (1): why orgolove (1): d3_crescentia needs to post and make his two votes. You have 6 hours and 56 minutes. Why should both Jackal/Zergling push for Mango today if we know that a green Pandain were responsible for saving Mango? There's no reason for mafia Jackal to have switched to ilovejonn yesterday either, since it wouldn't have mattered which person got lynched yesterday unless he was saving his teammate - but again, that was Pandain's call, not Jackal's call. And if Mango were red then would one of his teammates really vote for him at this point in time? I think the most likely mafia team right now is Zergling/why. The mafia might just be hoping that the target painted on Mango after "dodging" a lynch yesterday might be strong enough for other apathetic townies to follow - but at this point we can't be apathetic. I'm voting Zergling. | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
On January 17 2011 12:44 annul wrote: the voting is locked right? I imagine so. Wish the post would come up so we can launch into discussion. | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
On January 17 2011 12:48 Jackal58 wrote: Well poop. I kind of feel the same way. Still, I'm gonna save my thoughts until after the official end of game post. | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
On January 17 2011 12:57 Mr.Zergling wrote: Lying as town only hurts the town.... I'm looking at you pandain I mean, it was kind of obvious that he wasn't the DT. I don't really think any DT would have claimed the way he did (claiming checked DrH Night 1 immediately felt suspicious to me) but tbh we didn't have many blue reads; those we thought were blue we killed anyway. Pandain's IRC use during Day 2 was pretty powerful against mafia, but RoL's analysis in the following night was MUCH scarier as mafia. It's why we killed him then. Overall I don't actually feel that good about this game, because I just kept thinking of suspicious activity I'd notice as a townie and feel at a loss for words when it came to contributing in most mafia-favored way possible. Why's flipflop on Day 2 was HUGE, was surprised no one called him on that until late. With that kind of discussion paralysis going on in my head, plus the fact that we had only 5 mafia this game (KP formula was (Mafia + 1)/2 rounded up) I had a lot of trouble playing actively after we lost annul/tevo and felt that it was better just to lurk and ignore when people called me out. I mean, I guess we won but that kind of play isn't very fun overall. The other thing that hurt mafia the most during this game was lack of communication/inactivity. I didn't really have a good idea of how we were coordinating ourselves until the town lynched annul, and only then did why/brocket/me get in contact with each other to try and see how to continue the game. I think if we'd talked more frequently from the beginning we wouldn't have had as much trouble with inactivity, at least on the mafia side. | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
On January 17 2011 13:09 annul wrote: also, this little IRC tribal council that got my torch snuffed occurred when i was AFK and i didnt even have a chance to get in on it and break it up  Sorry for the bus - I just figured with 5+ people already convinced by Pandain I thought I might as well look like one of the first. I'm actually not sure what the best response would have been in that situation, but at least orgolove thought I was innocent. | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
On January 17 2011 13:12 flamewheel wrote: Whoops my bad. I was too busy playing DotA and after going on a few beyond godlike streaks [/brag] I forgot to come back here. Anyway this game disappointed me. I'm sorry to the people who tried, but mostly it was played in a very inactive fashion. why (RB), Brocket (Framer), and d3_crescentia, annul (GF), and Tevo were Mafia. As we already know, LSB, RebirthOfLeGenD, and Insanious were Veterans. ~OpZ~ was our Mafia Vigilante. Everybody else was a townie. So what was the purpose of this game? I'm pretty disappointed to - it would've been nicer to get overwhelmingly crushed by analysis instead of picking off the most active townies and letting the game stagnate through the rest. I mean, a win is a win, but I feel kind of dumb for winning this way. I feel that you must've been going for some kind of aesop's fable lesson where we should learn to do post analysis instead of counting votes, relying on non-existent blues and judging people purely on amount of "contribution." Unfortunately, well... I didn't really see much of that at all. | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
On January 17 2011 13:16 Pandain wrote: I actually feel at least somewhat more confident. I was suspicious of D3 because of his "contributing without really contributing", yet laid back on him because he was actually at least somewhat contributing whilst others weren't. So I have a question to post to everyone: Who is more suspicious: 1.Those who don't contribute. 2.Those who try to contribute but are just really really bad at it. 3.Those who try to contribute but it doesn't really say much. Cause all 3 look suspicious to me. Obviously now in retrospective it seems #3 is the obvious choice, but at the time, was there anything distinguishing why/d3 from the others? Especially why, I thought he was surely pro town. Thanks Coag. It's nice to know you always got my back. Why's Day 2 post/Seraph vote after all of the discussion on orgolove/annul was pretty scummy imo, as he sidestepped the entire discussion with only a "I want to see more proof" THAT late into the day when there was a lot of discussion. Then after the annul vote is all but decided he comes in with another post saying "well I guess I'll vote annul with you guys." I mean, I'd think that kind of scumslip goes away with inexperience, but those two posts made me facepalm pretty hard when I read them. Another good tell on why was just today - I virtually call him out for being scum and he doesn't say anything about it. He just goes "oh I'm going to vote Mr. Zergling" and avoids addressing my accusation. This should definitely be a tell that something's weird. As for me - I didn't really post much or contribute. I did feel like my early vote on annul would've been enough to clear me from suspicion for a little bit, but as I said I wasn't really sure how to handle coming back from losing 2 mafia members. I think I did make a half-assed attempt at giving the town a plan - the best approach was systematically rooting through lurkers/inactives through post analysis - but I never took the lead on this. | ||
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d3_crescentia
United States4054 Posts
Unfortunately I'm pretty sure that if I had been town I would've called myself out for that kind of scummy play, so I'm really unsure as to how to deal with this in future games. What's the best approach in these situations? | ||
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