EPTPick Your Power Mafia 3!
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
I think this debate will become down to whether or not giving town info/roles outweighs giving mafia info/roles. Couple things for the plan: 1) Mafia has only 1 KP, so I feel like the only way they can possibly win is if they get a KP role. 2) Role cop has some usage by checking roles and seeing if it corresponds to what role they should have gotten. 3) Allows for more roles a) Avoids clash between town for important town roles ie tracker (although refer to 1b and 2 of the following list) 4) Doesn't guarantee a stop in giving mafia roles that they would want ie CPR Doc Couple things I'm concerned about LSB's plan: 1) Guarantee that mafia will get roles a) Since we know the draft order once we pick numbers, if mafia lands on one of the roles that is crucial to mafia, ie vigilante, mafia can relax in getting the role they want. b) Even if mafia doesn't get the role they want according to LSB's list, they may still conform with the list just to deny the town with a useful role ie Bullet Bill c) All the roles are useful for mafia in some way (except role cop, but refer to 2) 2) Still doesn't stop mafia from clashing with important town roles, esp if mafia ends up with a role that they don't want 2) Plan makes bulletproof and veteran useless, as they can't draw in mafia KP. 3) Mafia will know who is what role, and is able to target by role instead of in the dark. Right now, I'm leaning towards no to LSB's plan, partly because of pregame discussion but mostly because I feel cons outweigh pros. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
Role cop (can only confirm roles in list, not really guarantee that they are mafia), JOAT (can only investigate once), tracker (if used effectively), and parity cop Tracker and parity cop seems like the only investigative roles that the town can rely on. (And JOAT, but that person can only check once) | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
Also, you may have addressed my post indirectly from answering everyone else's concern, but can you address my post directly? That would make it so much easier for me to analyze your plan, without thinking you left something out. On January 07 2011 16:25 Misder wrote: Couple things I'm concerned about LSB's plan: 1) Guarantee that mafia will get roles a) Since we know the draft order once we pick numbers, if mafia lands on one of the roles that is crucial to mafia, ie vigilante, mafia can relax in getting the role they want. b) Even if mafia doesn't get the role they want according to LSB's list, they may still conform with the list just to deny the town with a useful role ie Bullet Bill c) All the roles are useful for mafia in some way (except role cop, but refer to 2) 2) Still doesn't stop mafia from clashing with important town roles, esp if mafia ends up with a role that they don't want 2) Plan makes bulletproof and veteran useless, as they can't draw in mafia KP. 3) Mafia will know who is what role, and is able to target by role instead of in the dark. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
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Misder
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Either, the mafia chose really low numbers, but made it unique, so [1][x], [2][x], [3][x], [[4][x], [5] to get the top spaces Or, the mafia chose really high numbers and clashed on purpose to get the bottom spaces It seems like the mafia didn't try to clash, so I think that Either the mafia don't care about their roles (they plan to take town role anyways or is happy with any role) Or the mafia tried to get top spaces the latter being the most likely This may help us find likely mafia in the future, but we will see. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
I also believe that people that posted against LSB's plan without a reason is likely mafia (I'm thinking Fishball, BC) | ||
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Misder
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What Ace meant by the most unique number is that for example, 3 people picked [2] as their first number. However, there were only 2 people that picked [11], so the [11] is more unique, and therefore pick ahead of the [2]s. This goes with the other numbers. I think Ace did this method first, so that allows LayoffRage and bumalarge to be ahead of Jackal and the rest, even though they both chose the same #. | ||
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Misder
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Misder
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Misder
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On January 09 2011 11:21 Ace wrote: You have 24 hours from now to send in your picks. Which means tomorrow night at 9:30 ET/11:30 KST More exact. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
Before game starts goes like this: On January 07 2011 08:22 Fishball wrote: Decided to join last minute, I haven't read anything yet, including OP. I'll read it later when I have time. I just want to bring this up front first, it will be very unlikely for me to follow LSB's plan. I thought that the "very unlikely" part would mean that 1) you had a reason to not follow the plan and 2) you were going to consider it. But then: On January 07 2011 14:59 Fishball wrote: First off, /confirmed. I was the most active Mafia member in that game, and I have also addressed this wasn't the case (selective reading?). I've mentioned in this thread, saying that Radfield's plan had its merits and applied constraints to the Mafia, but for the most part, it wasn't a huge issue. What I mean by constraints, is that Mafia were not able to pick up roles such as Bad Santa, Prince of Darkness, and Compulsive Vigilante, these powerful Pro-Mafia roles as freely as we wanted, forcing us to put more thought into what to pick, as well as "blending in". His plan was also more viable due to a variation of choices per draft, unlike yours. Your plan is basically handing out free information to the Mafia. Our alignment PM's have already been sent by Ace. So if you are still pushing for the plan, you are one or more of the following: - You are Mafia, wanting to fish information. - You are aiming for the Traitor role, feeding Mafia information to help your side to win. - You are butt-hurt after multiple players told you this wasn't a good plan, and your ego refuses to let yourself back down. - You are simply naive. LSB had already addressed that problem, and you still follow through with it. As far as I'm aware, town won PYP 2. Because mafia wasn't able to pick up KP. LSBs plan does the same. First you say that the only problem was not getting the right role as mafia, then you say that the plan gives off too much info, and that's the problem. On January 08 2011 06:15 Fishball wrote: This is exactly the main thing I've been trying to say; The main difference between Radfield's plan and his. Huge difference, to be exact. Oh, and just so it's known to the public. I'm calling BC Mafia/SK! He says its all bad, but doesn't provide another plan? In the other game I played with him where we were both town, he would always try and get what he though was the right plan of action going. He's not doing it here. Also, the "huge difference" was addressed by LSB, and yet he doesn't back up his reasoning. Next post is also -.- So, he wants chaos? What? He basically concedes that without a plan, there will be chaos, and he simply shrugs it off. Deconduo has it almost right, it only benefits the mafia and SK. His only post after that and before Ace announced drafting order is: On January 08 2011 07:55 Fishball wrote: Makes me want to go [1][2]. I will shock everyone in order of their numbers. Sooner or later, all Mafia/SK will die. Genius. Useless. Next couple of posts concern draft order confusion: On January 09 2011 16:46 Fishball wrote: I confirmed with Ace my pick is [6][20]. The picture I'm seeing doesn't add up. On January 09 2011 16:47 Fishball wrote: Unless I'm missing something, which very well may be (haven't been following closely), people are fake claiming? Admits that he hasn't followed closely? Again, when Fishball is town, he actually tried to do stuff. Also, with the info provided at the time, there was no way that he would know for certain that people are fake claiming- creating confusion and provides and excuse for it. On January 10 2011 07:19 Fishball wrote: Not to point fingers at Ace, but this is like PYP2 deja vu for me  .When I first saw the list, and you guys started claiming, I was like there is no way I would end up in 10th spot. I originally picked [2][20], but then changed it to [6][20] because my gut told my there would be too many fuckers picking low numbers. I then confirmed with Ace via PM that he did get my [6][20] pick in, which lead me to think someone has to be lying, or there are errors on the list. Good luck to LSB having people draft their "assigned" roles. I'm surely not following it. Useless post. More defending himself- seems exactly like mafia play. He seems like hes only justifying himself creating confusion. There's no substance to it. He again states hes not following it, yet doesn't provide more of a reason. Remember- he concedes that without a plan, it would cause chaos. On January 10 2011 07:34 Fishball wrote: Hey, you can always take "my" role. What is it? Oh, Doctor! Just remember not to tell anyone so the Mafia won't hit you. Mafia would have to kill one by one- and there are two doctors- they can protect each other if needed. Mafia would still not know who to target. On January 10 2011 10:12 Fishball wrote: Preliminary Mafia list. - BloodyC0bbler - zeks - Misder - aidnai/JimboSilvers (pick one) I was the one who pointed out the abnormal picture, but I never once directed town to look for those players who might be lying. It doesn't make sense for town/mafia to lie. There is no gain whatsoever, besides drawing attention to themselves. It was fortunate that this was sorted out by Ace, but nice try there BC. Oh, like I mentioned before, if I'm town, there is a good chance BC is red. 14. zeks [3] [1] 15. Misder [3] [2] 16. aidnai [3] [3] 17. JimboSilvers [3] [3] 3-1, 3-2, 3-3. Really? I'm picking aidnai due to this post. Are you daft? No, you can't be this bad... I hope. 1st substantial post- but not really. Continues to claim BC is mafia, yet doesn't bring up anything to convince anyone that he is. And accuses some people of being mafia because the # were close. I'll give you that it does seem a bit suspicious, but I'll explain in the next post why it is unlikely. Also, his analysis is all based off #, not posts/behavior- which means hes not really trying to out anyone- more like he seems to be contributing but not really. Also, your fight with BC seems so unrealistic- makes me want to think that both of you are mafia. BC hasn't posted much either- I may have to write up something on him too. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 10 2011 10:12 Fishball wrote: Preliminary Mafia list. - BloodyC0bbler - zeks - Misder - aidnai/JimboSilvers (pick one) I was the one who pointed out the abnormal picture, but I never once directed town to look for those players who might be lying. It doesn't make sense for town/mafia to lie. There is no gain whatsoever, besides drawing attention to themselves. It was fortunate that this was sorted out by Ace, but nice try there BC. Oh, like I mentioned before, if I'm town, there is a good chance BC is red. 14. zeks [3] [1] 15. Misder [3] [2] 16. aidnai [3] [3] 17. JimboSilvers [3] [3] 3-1, 3-2, 3-3. Really? I'm picking aidnai due to this post. Are you daft? No, you can't be this bad... I hope. It's unlikely that 3-1, 3-2, 3-3 would mean anything in the first place. Going 3-1, 3-2, 3-3 as mafia doesn't gain you anything. All the pro-mafia posts are at the top and at the bottom. Mafia going 3-1, 3-2, 3-3 means that they are going to the bottom of the list. However, before I stated how if mafia wanted the bottom picks, they would have tried a higher # instead and tripled up on that. I would say that going 5-1 would be even better for mafia to get on the bottom because LSB claimed that he would- meaning guarantee clash if LSB wasn't lying. And really- you think that mafia would be that stupid and be that obvious? | ||
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Misder
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On January 10 2011 12:57 kitaman27 wrote: Unless you have a good reason to (like traitor or something), I would suggest not claiming yet whether or not you managed to get the role you selected. Why shouldn't we say if we didn't get our roles? If we do say, won't we have a better clue to who took it ie mafia? | ||
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Misder
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On January 10 2011 13:26 HaploPaithan wrote: For the same reason no one liked LSB's plan. It lets scum know where the roles to target are. I guess, but if you didn't get the role, wouldn't it help the town to figure out who took it and didn't follow the plan? | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 10 2011 14:30 Fishball wrote: I'm with HaploPaithan here. Your logic just makes me think more and more that you are red. Hey BC, you should tell your muscles to stay low. On January 11 2011 14:23 Fishball wrote: For my draft pick, I was assigned Medic. If I were to pick Traitor, why would I want to announce that I would pick another role before hand? Would it not be better if I did it secretly? Keep in mind, the most convenient way for the Traitor to get recruited is to be hit by the Mafia. If I stuck with the plan, as a medic, wouldn't that increase the chances of me getting hit thus getting recruited? My play thus far has been fairly vocal. Radical accusations, yes, but not entirely without reason. Look at one of those main candidates for lynch, aidnai; Who was the first one to bring him up? BC haven't posted, misder submerged after a brief counter attack, etc.. From what I've seen in the past 24 hours, I've received rather negative reception from the town. Now why would the Mafia want to hit or use their powers on a target like me, a self proclaimed non-medic player, with a small target on top of his head? If I were the Traitor, this serves me no good. I feel an obligation to defend myself here. 1) I don't have time like you do to be able to read this forum until late at night unless on weekends, so "submerged" is not really the appropriate term. The reason why I didn't say anything after you fosed me was that I wasn't even on. 2) The reason I asked that question was basically, LSB's plan was already giving mafia all the info anyways. So naturally, if most people followed the plan, mafia would be the only ones who know who doesn't have their roles, which means that town is at a disadvantage here. I'm pretty sure I understand why people don't like it- because it gives mafia a place to target- but if mafia already knows, then theres no point is suppressing it. So what's illogical about that? 3) I still feel that your early game play is very questionable- and likely scum- as per my previous analysis 4) The reason you wanted to lynch aidnai in the first place was because of # and one post. I'm not saying that he's not scumlike- just that the reason you brought it up wasn't really analysis. 5)Also BC- you didn't even have an original reasoning- again, not saying he's not scumlike, but you didn't make it based off of not posting 6) You stated pregame that you were likely not going to follow LSB. So if you did suddenly say, I might follow it, that's suspicious in itself. You don't need to be medic to increase chances- the way you play already gives the impression that you are not town-aligned- mafia would target you. Either your town and mafia kills a veteran mafia player, or your traitor and mafia gets another member. After reading guides, I learned that we should be focusing on scumhunting, not informative stuff so I'm going with my gut here and ##Vote Fishball | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 11 2011 15:10 aidnai wrote: oh god here i go again i can't help my scummy self You're definitely tunneling now jimbo. Just saying. I'm reading up on the thread, pigsquirrel gave an awful reason for voting me (cause i "don't care", not cause i'm scum). But the rest of his posts look good. Actually excellent for a first time player. As for lynching LayOffRage, thing is, he can be a pretty decent scumhunter, and he's active, and he claimed green. I don't see why he needs to die before we even get a read on the players in the top 8. And fishball is almost certainly not the traitor. If you guys need someone to die with a role to make sure the CC gets something not too strong, I'm your man. How do you know that fishball isn't traitor? And, you discount the possibility that he is SK or mafia. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 11 2011 23:44 Fishball wrote: Every time your name is brought up, you re-merge. Yes I like to use that word. 1. Everyone has their own schedule. I have a full time job too. I even got myself modkilled in Insane Mafia due to unforeseen circumstances. Time is one thing. But timing on the other hand... Every time your name is brought up, poof. 2. What question? You lost me here. 3. So are my accusations. So the accused is also accusing the accuser of being scummy. Nothing new here. If you have valid points, people will follow. That's all I have to say. 4. Woah, I think you're a bit ahead of yourself here. I never once said "I wanted to lynch aidnai". I only brought him up because he was part of a picture that I had see as abnormal, no matter how minor it is. It generates discussion, and this has already been proven. Unlike some dude who doesn't have "time" and "isn't here". 5. No original reasoning? I'm not going to repeat myself for the third time. Go re-read my posts in the thread. Look at zeks, ignoring my finger pointing. If you're truly innocent you wouldn't need to worry about my ever so soft accusations. All I'm doing is throwing little rocks into the lake; It causes ripples, but sometimes tsunami happens. 6. You may have a point regarding my pre-game comment. Just keep in mind I won't know which spot I would end up as until after the draft. If you still don't get it, I've also said it before, numerous times, pre-game and during the game, that Radfield's plan in PYP2 was more viable due to a certain degree of uncertainty for drafts. Hopefully you won't need me to spill it out. You also say my play gives the impression of not being town aligned; I have already admitted my play was unorthodox (This is a game after all, and for once, I would like to friggin enjoy it), but far from being scummy. I've already explained my motives, logic, and plan in detail, in my previous post. If you don't see any of that, even a little bit, as being "town aligned", and just counter attack me every time you see your name being brought up, I have nothing left to say. Let the Town decide. Really? Every single time, I reemerge right after? As far as I'm concerned, I answer when I can. I can't think of any instance that I posted right after my name was said. If I did, it was either during the weekend or the person and I were both up. 1. I don't understand where you see I come back when I'm accused. Irrelevent, but I was modkilled too that game the same day for the same reason. 2. + Show Spoiler + On January 11 2011 23:44 Fishball wrote: If that's not what you were referring to, what was it that made you think I was mafia? Again, it seems like youre accusing out of the blue. 3. I don't blame people for not reading my analysis on you- town was (too?) focused on confirming roles than actually scum hunting. 4. You brought your lynch target as a way of saying -look, i can't be traitor cause i was the first to say aidnai might be scum- when in reality, that's not the primary reason that aidnai is being targeted. That's what's suspicious. 5. + Show Spoiler + On January 08 2011 06:15 Fishball wrote: I'm pretty sure that you didn't have an original reasoning. Its the fact that you point fingers yet you don't tell why is whats bothering me. It's like you don't want to do analysis. It seems like you assume that town is smart enough to figure out whats going on in your mind and thats good enough. 6. I know you said that, but since no one proposed any other plan that deals with uncertainty (jimbo's did, but even then, you didn't even follow that? or at least support it), and you agreed that without a plan --> chaos which is bad for town in general, plan is the best option for town. And now, we have total confusion because of the uncertainty of who got what. Now we are too focused on confirming town roles. Really? You explained everything in detail? What about accusation on divinek? What about accusation on BC in the very beginning? What about why not having a plan for roles is better than having a plan, after LSB answered your concern? Maybe your right that I read over things and I should reread your posts (again and again), but I'd say that not everything is in detail at all. [QUOTE]On January 11 2011 14:23 Fishball wrote: Right now, I propose to lynch "LayOffRage" for three reasons. - Eliminates the possibility that he is Traitor himself crying wolf. - If he dies and flips Vanilla, the Copy Cat (alignment unknown) will not get any surprising powers. This also proves that there is indeed a Traitor among the top 8, and the Town should be aware. - Eliminates the chance of losing a power role for Town, unlike other lynch targets. This post is the only "plan you propose. And then this: [QUOTE]On January 12 2011 14:37 Fishball wrote: [QUOTE]On January 12 2011 14:07 Beneather wrote: Lool, Wait CC doesn't get Vanilla Townie I thought it was first death  Proof that people tend to not read anything I say, or just everything in general.[/QUOTE] What? One of your reasons to your proposed "plan" was because you didn't want CC to get "any surprising powers". And now you claim that poeple don't read? And I'm pretty sure I accused you first anyways, so technically, your the one who's counterattack. | ||
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Misder
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On January 12 2011 14:41 bumatlarge wrote: You guys need to do research : / We could have the CPR send his kill asap, and give the CC in the top 5 some role first. I asked Ace and the first person to send in their target gives role. But I guess we have to have deconduo here to send that in so I guess that's out of the question. We could have aidnai die, as I find him reasonably suspicious, and then witch role get's passed. But I believe Witch should be used relatively soon. So Aidnai, if you are witch I think you should use it and prove yourself, as I doubt SK would take it. If you are a mafia witch, then we can at least force you to use it now, rather then later. Aidnai would be a good check for BB. The CopyCat situation should be treated delicately, but we have to ask a few questions on this. - Why would Jackal lie? What would he gain as SK or mafia? What would he gain as townie? Well If he's lying, I would pin a high chance of him being the traitor we are looking for, but I think he'd rather claim CC as he knows LoR wasn't the traitor, but then again, he gets heavy scrutiny, which is kinda what the traitor wants, so I'll cross that out for now. As mafia or scum, he draws attention away from himself, which is EXACTLY what he wants, regardless of whether he did or did not get/pick CC. As town, if he wants to be a real hero, he will claim it, but it would be in good interests if he said he didn't get it as town. If he was lying, I would make an exception of LaL in this case. If he is town and he is CC, he should tell us to prevent unnecessary deaths of strong roles, and if he gets found out, we will kill him. So, there is a good chance he is not town-aligned. - If Jackal is telling the truth, what should we do? We should try to find the Copy Cat. If CopyCat is town and didn't follow the plan, he should claim and get a lot less FoS then if he was found out. We do have roles to find out obviously. Tracker could be used, but role cop has the most business up there, and should be checking who is most likely. I'd have to agree with the sentiments that CPR and Vig would not really want to steal that as scum/SK. Scum JOAT and BB however know they are denying town roles, so I suggest those two get role copped. As for traitor, it's confirmed in the Top 8, so Parity doesn't really want to be up there. Again Role Cop has even more use finding someone up there (Wow that role cop sure is a useful guy) Also, if no one brings up better candidates, I'd like to suggest people to protect based on roles and LSB's list and whether or not they followed it. deconduo Kenpachi kitaman27 Barundar bumatlarge Eiii zeks aidnai And then from based on what they have been posting, I'd highly suggest ME!.... Or whoever we agree not to hit with CPR  I actually agree with the Jackal part. Jackal could have taken CC, claimed that he didn't, cause confusion in the town. No one could tell if he was lying, and he makes the top 4, which are the ones who should have power roles, targets to be scrutinized. He would gain the power of said top 4 roles, and benefit the mafia greatly. Also, 1st he says that he didn't get his role too late. And he can't make the excuse that he wasn't on until then cause he wrote a post in between LSBs post and his green claim. + Show Spoiler + On January 10 2011 13:30 LSB wrote: If you were assigned a red role and did no recieve it. Please Claim In addition, if you picked traitor and did not recieve it, please claim. Post in between On January 11 2011 06:13 Jackal58 wrote: I don't think we're going to find out anytime soon unless we lynch him. On January 11 2011 19:21 Jackal58 wrote: 1 of the 4 above me is the copy cat. I'm just green. | ||
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Misder
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On January 12 2011 15:56 Fishball wrote: Oh fuck, just as I hit post, a wild Misder appeared. Aren't you supposed to be asleep? lol. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
Divinek, where the f are you. Your definitely used to post way more than you are now. I remember the game when I first started, you completely hated me for being "inactive", and now its on you. I know when you are town, you post good stuff. And now? I'm actually gonna agree with Fish here and say that you are one of my scum canidates. And BC. Every single game I've been on the opposite side of you, and I suspect its no different here. You haven't posted at all lately, and if you have, it hasn't been profound. You did this all the time as mafia. Even as ninja, you posted more. The only time I remember you posting much when youre mafia is when youre defending yourself, and unfortunately, only Fish has accused you, and without much to go on. I'm inclined to say that BC and Divinek are more suspicious than Fish at this point. Unfortunately. | ||
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Misder
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##Vote deconduo | ||
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Misder
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@Cube I think that Cube is most likely SK. Cube is stupid. Really stupid. And I get a really bad vibe from him. He contradicts himself many times. He continues to say that we need to prove deconduo100%. There’s no way that we could do that without killing him. 1st Post (Cube’s fake claim) He thinks that he’s the most important person in the game. He doesn’t want to risk dying in order to save someone. Now, the wording on this post is interesting. 1) “I have weird head issues”- I have no idea why he would want to post this at all. 2) “I may do either of the following” his wording is really weird- it seems like he claims that it will randomly choose every day. 3) “Not the most helpful in the game”- once we figure out what kind of doctor, it definitely could be helpful. Paranoid acts like a roleblocker, weak can guarantee a mafia kill. 2nd Post Another scummy post. 1) “I was hoping to give the Mafia a reason not to hit me”- continues to think that he’s the most important person in the game. 2) “risk of killing someone -> good for mafia”- bad logic? Mafia always has a risk of killing someone? 3) “They basically have no reason not to hit me”- Uh, yeah they do now. You just said you’re too afraid to use your power. Contradiction. 4) “I’ll help you”- contradiction again. His entire reasoning day 1 he claims is that he doesn’t want to die; now he wants to die? 3rd Post Seems like hes not paying attention to what is happening, like a townie would do :/ 4th Post 1) Picks out grammar- like its important when it really isn’t. 2) “they just don’t work as they should”- its not like we didn’t know that- we knew that they wouldn’t be normal as it was in the OP 5th Post I think I’m just confused… 6th Post 1) “fake claiming would be… leading the town to believe that my role is something different than it is”- you did- you claimed that role did something extra; that’s different that what it is 2) “Explain how this would make me a more efficient Mafia”- it would lead to another excuse not to use your power… 3) “I hoped that Mafia wouldn’t reread the rules”- uhh, why not? Your logic on this is that they wouldn’t because they didn’t pick doctor. I reread the rules all the time just to make sure of things- that doesn’t make me not mafia. Actually, I knew you were lying about the bad doctor part right away before I read BC’s post without even looking at the OP again. That’s just bad logic 7th Post 1) our entire discussion before from LSB was that we probably don’t have the JOAT role. And it goes on and on and on I still think we can use him as a medic- if we can figure out what kind he is. I suggest he protects deconduo- mafia has a reason to kill deconduo tonight, as he is siding with the town as of now- if hes paranoid, he would roleblock deconduo’s shot that he said he would fire- if naive weak, then deconduo will probably die (theres no way to guarantee this)- if hes weak- then Cube will die. @deconduo situation He agreed that he would use his day vig to survive today’s lynch. We can use that as many pointed out. Deconduo would need to help the town since if mafia makes it lylo, and town loses, deconduo loses too. So the best course of action for deconduo is to help the town until we get a few of the mafia lynched. That means we can use/trust him for a while. @BC BC being active day 2 is unusual. He did that in my other mafia game with him where he was mafia, where he didn’t post at all basically day 1, and then day 2, he emerged and completely piled on someone who was being scummy but not mafia, as seen with Cube. Just an FoS on BC. Don’t really want to go into analysis. @LSB I’m still following the analysis on this guy. Not positive on any of this on him, since at first I believed him to be mafia, but now, I’m questioning. @Fishball He’s posted less than from day 1- I can’t say much since I’m doing the same thing- but it is another reason why he might be mafia. Meh, I’m not pushing so hard on his lynch anymore- but I still think hes pretty mafiaish. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 15 2011 14:43 BloodyC0bbler wrote: and before anyone asks what I mean. This is the best sort of information you can get on someone. A player posting "analysis" to try and blend into a crowd while not contributing well, anything new and insightful. It works much better however when the player reads the thread and stays caught up and realizes said player "hes not sure about" flipped anti town. Considering the arguments against LSB were pretty damning, I would ask you this misder. Why did you find him less scummy? Is this because you knew he wasn't mafia? It was because he was the only one who posted a plan (besides Jimbo, but that plan was pretty late). On January 15 2011 19:34 CubEdIn wrote: I lol'd. This page is full of win. Misder, I may be stupid, because I didn't read the OP as well as I should have, but at least I'm not a fking retard. Jimbo, I like you, really. You posted some nice stuff earlier, but now you go afk and come back like 1 minute before the night post, prolly because Ace PMed you. Please be more active in the game. I don't think we should argue much though, just wait and see if we live through the night. I never said you were retarded I don't use that kind of language anyways.On January 15 2011 23:24 zeks wrote: I said I was going to choose between Alignment Cop / Mason / Witch / Tracker and I chose Mason As a reminder my mason partner is verified as pro-town but until I get his permission I won't claim him yet. Meh. So zeks stole my role. I'm a green townie then, since I followed LSBs plan and chose mason as my role. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 17 2011 04:05 CubEdIn wrote: No, you said I'm stupid, very stupid. Mostly because I didn't read the OP well enough. And after saying that, you went on about LSB, who had already died, and did an "analysis" on him. Which means that you've been paying less attention to the game than I was. And that's just plain ignorant. But you know, bygones. Huh. TBH, I really did totally miss LSB dying actually. alright, I admit. I'm also very stupid. I'll blame myself for that. Although, I'll say that I payed equally as much attention to the game as you. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
Now @BCs scenario- deconduo could be mafia, but what strikes me odd is that he tried to get Fishball lynched day 2 and said he would kill BC during the night, the opposite of what mafia would do. Also, we have to take into account that if deconduo is mafia, we would have a loose SK (besides the unknown). | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 18 2011 03:36 aidnai wrote: you're right kenpachi, I just realized that--you were definitely not an inactive. I usually open a bunch of tabs and searches and check when the last post was made, I may have mixed you up with someone else or something, sorry! In other news, wake up everybody. No reason for 3 hours of silence in the middle of the day--we have a lynch today, and we have nightkills to discuss as well. Current voting: Fishball: 6 votes Kenpachi Kitaman27 Amber[light] Bumatlarge BloodyC0bbler aidnai Eiii: 0 votes BloodyC0bbler: 1 vote Pigsquirrel Not voting yet: deconduo, CubedIn, Haplopaithan, Eiii, Misder, Jimbosilvers, Beneather Misder is a player I'm having a hard time reading. Most of the content-posts from Misder have been responses to fishball's 'accusations', and misder never seems current on the situation or contributing to what is actively going on... Meh. I'm just having a hard time deciding what I want to do. On one hand, purely by facts, Fishball is the most likely traitor. On the other hand, I want to lynch BC or you instead, just because I have a feeling that you guys are mafia. ##Vote BC | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 18 2011 05:11 Beneather wrote: Alright, Aidnai I am going to claim since I already had said it before. I am Bullet Proof. So either Jimbo is vet or he is lying about getting hit. Anyone else claim vet? | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 16 2011 11:25 deconduo wrote: I didn't get any PM about a role block, so fish was protected or is vet/BP At this point, I think its almost certain that deconduo is mafia, as people have pointed out before. This quote especially exemplifies the lies of deconduo. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 19 2011 15:22 aidnai wrote: So, where the hell is everyone? Deconduo has been MIA since he hammered fishball, bumatlarge hasn't posted for two days, Misder is damn near 24 hours (again), Jimbo posted one time since he got back from his weekend and it's already been a day since that post, and beneather disappeard again too! I'm sorry. I'm sure you missed me a lot Though, I don't really have much to say, cause I'm of split opinion. All I have to say is that kita needs to hit CPR tonight cause hes probably going to die tonight. And that the best course of action for the SK is to help town because of all this confusion. Mafia knows who their scum mates are, meaning that in the endgame, they are likely to be much more organized than town (esp. in the state we are in now). If SK targets town, mafia will basically be more likely to lynch SK just due to plain probability. If SK targets mafia on the otherhand, town still doesn't know who the mafia are or the SK, and there is still confusion. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 19 2011 13:47 BloodyC0bbler wrote: Hi, im the resident asshole, posting logically is something I have done overall all game. Now, lets break your post down. BC has picked out myself, bum, pigsquirrel and deconduo as the 4 scum. If i had to guess, I'd figure that Jumbo also agrees with him. If that is the case then scum will lose without the help of the SK. Now lets look at the numbers. 7v4v1 Tonight mafia hits two players. 5v4v1 sk hits town 4v4v1 town hits mafia 4v3v1 Now, if town doesn't kill cpr in the red that dies it comes down to a lynch. Lets say town lynches a mafia 4v2v1 IF town misses cpr again 2v2v1 SK shoots a town 1v2v1 mafia controls vote basically, sk lynched mafia wins, town lynched sk wins. TOWN can't win if sk helps mafia Town vig will not live past its one hit as well. now lets start over 7v4v1 Town hits mafia sk hits mafia 7v2v1 mafia hits x2 town 5v2v1 Now, in this position, SK will not shoot a mafia as he will lose. Town must now lynch cpr mafia (lets say it does for this part). 5v1v1 mafia shoots town sk shoots town 3v1v1 Town lynches mafia 3v0v1 sk hits town 2v0v1 town lynches sk town win. IF town misses the cpr mafia in its lynching above 5v1v1 mafia x2 hits town sk hits town 2v1v1 town cannot win, mafia or sk win based off lynch. Mafia can win without SK helping them, town cannot win without sk helping them. Your logic is fundamentally incorrect. Next, kenpachi and aidnai are essentially confirmed. AS much as kita annoys the fuck out of me for shooting at me, he is confirmed almost 90%. Eiii is confirmed town based on red sniping his role (sup halpo). There are 4 confirmed of the 7 town players. My actions at this point should have put me on that list, makes 5. Now, whos left, jimbo, misder, bum, decon, beneather, halpo, and pig. Of this list, we know decon is red, as is pig. 2 red jimbo misder, bum, beneather, halpo. of these 5, we know 2 are red, 1 is sk. Bum said he was going to follow the town plan, as did halpo, both did not. Both have sat back and lurked the thread "actively reading" yet not being helpful or participating. They also both have "investigative roles" that have all been used on players who have claimed/alignment been clearly displayed before they posted, ie faked results. This makes bum and halpo the last two reds. jimbo, misder, beneather, 2 town, 1 sk. OF the three of them, beneather and jimbo could possibly be the sk, I don't believe misder is, as well, his play style just screams his regular play as town. You now push that i don't want town to off the confirmed reds. GUESS what. Unless the red cpr doctor dies, town cannot win. Period. You can say its a mafia move, but unless the mafia cpr dies, the town loses. The numbers show it. Now obviously above the mafia could fail to hit a townie and shoot the sk keeping one townie alive longer, but the numbers show if all kp goes through. Town has to play a perfect game, or it loses, and it needs the sk to help to do it. By posting that the scum needs the sk to win just proves my point that you are red. Since you explicitly state decon and pig are obviously red, then link yourself to bum as "the two most unlikely reds" while posting the most scum filled post you have posted so far you just revealed your entire team to the town, while attempting very poorly to bus me. You also post your list of "scum" who include 2 confirmed townies, and two more confirmed town. Cool thanks. With your information beneather, aidnai, kenpachi, and misder are not mafia. We know kita is town, and we know based on your role steal/"checks" aidnai is not mafia, and based on actions we know jimbo and and I aren't mafia. You confirmed your entire team, and now all we have to do is analyze the sk. Ok town, if you refuse to see everything now, I honestly don't know what else it will take. Thanks for the compliment? You also forgot to say that you might be one of the possibilities. I still think you're SK. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
##Vote HaploPaithan And I still think BC is SK. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
And does Jimbo get to survive a lynch even after he already got hit? If so, Jimbo being SK pretty much screws us. I think the best option is if we lynch decon today (4v1v1 -> 4v0v1, night 3v0v1), lynch Jimbo the next day (who won't die unless he lied, so still 3v0v1, night 2v1), then we decide who to lynch the last day as lylo. This gives us the biggest probability of lynching SK. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
Whoever got hit last night, please come out. It may or may not result in a cookie. Worst Case Scenario Day 5v1 -> 4v1 Night 4v1 -> 3v1 Day 3v1 -> 2v1 Night 2v1 -> 1v1 Day So we still have two days to lynch SK. And we have to reserve two in order to lynch Jimbo just in case he is SK. TBH, I kinda just want to vote BC off right away. Also, BC started the bandwagon (is that the right word if everyone was going to vote for him anyway?) on deconduo, maybe just to rush decon's death from telling the mafia hit on himself. And in a different game, when he was ninja (ehh, not exactly the same, but a nontown role nonetheless), he also acted very protown (as in scumhunted and stuff). But I still think the best course of action is to lynch Jimbo next day just for security sake. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 22 2011 06:54 JimboSilvers wrote: Whoa Aidnai, why do you want us not to talk about it? while clearly we get more info once we see who dies, the biggest danger we have right now is not knowing enough to correctly find the sk. We need people to post, we need to see peoples reactions, and we need to put the real sk under some heat and get him to fuck up. Misder, there's no need to jump the gun and lynch someone right away. We have plenty of time to get info out there so we can make the right choice. If you want to go ahead and vote people to get them to post, as people like eiii should not be able to lurk this much and say nothing, but under no circumstances should anyone be hammering until we have a clear target. And how is it security to lynch me? That wastes a chance to find SK. It won't prove I'm green either since I'm vet. Best case scenario is I get shot so you can be sure about me and pick two other targets, but that probably won't happen since SK is probably counting on me getting lynched. What I was saying was that we need to make a decision today. When I say to lynch you for security, I'm saying that it is the only way to lynch you if you were the SK. Since I regard you as one of my top suspects, I don't want to risk it. Ultimately its up to us whether or not we want to hit two people or just you. On January 22 2011 06:54 aidnai wrote: accelerated day/night cycles plz? by the way your numbers are off misder. We're at 5v1 right now, during night. So it should be: Plan 1: lynch someone not Jimbo Current night 5v1 tomorrow: 4v1 night again: 3v1 2nd day: 2v1 LYLO, plus too late to kill vet On the other hand if we hit jimbo and he was telling the truth about vet, then it goes Plan 2, lynch Jimbo Current night 5v1 tomorrow: 4v1 night again: 4v1 2nd day: 3v1 MYLO. If we choose no lynch, then night: 3v1 day 3: 2v1 LYLO In both plans, we can end up at 2v1 which in terms of statistics is the best shot we have of guessing correctly. At that point, we've eliminated the greatest number of incorrect targets by flipping 3 of our remaining 6 players. The major advantage of hitting Jimbo is we avoid a situation where it's too late to lynch the vet. We also verify Jimbo's vet claim. The only disadvantage is that in plan 1 we get to pick a suspicious person to flip, whereas in plan 2 all three flips are done by the SK. That's just the numbers though. And the best the numbers can do is 33%. This will come down to analysis, argument, and persuasion in the end, and I'm REALLY hoping I'm around for it... This is my favorite part of mafia... BTW, I don't think deconduo would have really revealed the SK, and it would have been a dick move to do so anyway. He's just been stringing us along the entire game, when he should have died day 2. If he had really wanted to screw the SK over, he could have told us his hit when he sent it in. Jimbo, about the 'slip of the tongue', I remember reading that LSB's hit was barundar night 1? I can't find it now, (hate it when the game is past 50 pages), does anyone else remember this? Now that I stop and think about it, LSB never admitted anything before he flipped, so it must have been speculation that I took for fact -_-. Meh, so maybe LSB hit haplopaithan, maybe the SK#2's scumdar wasn't quite as unbelievable as I gave him credit for. But even without that hit, SK#2 still has bagged zeks and bum... Your # are right, but the I think the conclusion is still the same- we only get two more days to lynch. Also BC getting hit by SK is probably best for us TBH. I was seriously considering lynching him today, but I guess I was wrong. | ||
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Misder
United States1557 Posts
On January 20 2011 13:27 BloodyC0bbler wrote: I will simply say this. Eii Kenpachi Misder. Aidnai You 4 are the 4 "confirmed town" Myself, jimbo, and beneather. 1 of us 3 is the sk. Decon is red. OF the three of us on the sk list. Jimbo, as much as I love the guy for being awesome this game, best fits the profile of sk. However I am not sure on this, its just a gut instinct. When the night post hits, I expect to be dead, so good luck you guys. Off decon, then its a game of finding the sk. Remember, if it is jimbo, it takes two days to lynch him if his vet claim is real! Does anyone know why BC said these four were "confirmed" townies? There's got to be a reason, but I'm not sure why. Eiii, I'm especially not sure. I haven't seen him in a long time. However, when I went back to his posts in the game, they all seem pretty town. That's the only thing that's throwing me off of him. Kenpachi- I'll go with Jimbos analysis and say that he basically had no reason as SK to take the godfather role. I know that BC said that aidnai was confirmed because it was unlikely that he would save an SK shot, but there was another SK (LSB) in the game, so he could have saved that shot. Jimbo- he just seems like a threat as he has veteran, but as he has pointed out, I may be too distracted about this threat. So right now, my main lynch target is aidnai. | ||
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