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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
 ), basically unless more information crops up I think we have to lynch an inactive. What are we going to do if everyone posts though? | ||
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
Anyway, I have to go to calculus now, I'll probably check back in with a vote after that. | ||
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
As I said earlier they only have two posts, neither of which seems contribution, I understand BC might be away or something, but I want to preempt any possibility of him being a cautious lurker | ||
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
On January 06 2011 05:52 TheMango wrote: I don't see a reason why we cant have a general discussion and still put pressure on people/scum hunt. However, I think we should be very careful on giving any kind of specific direction or advice to our blues without first knowing the setup. I completely agree, we don't even know if we have blues but if we do the last thing we want is to spell out their moves to the mafia. I also think its a good proposition to put pressure on people. So, speaking of pressure aidnai why would you want to forestall discussion isn't that a bit suspicious? and Ace you still have some explaining to do, I believe LSB asked you a couple questions. | ||
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
We've decided against the hypocop idea, correct? adanai, while you seem fine right now but i'd like an explanation of why you think we should avoid discussion during the night, thats as far as I know not really beneficial for the town. At this point you seem to be doing more good than bad, and to be honest when I tried to analyze your posts I got nothing definitive(it could be the fact that I'm not very good at it ) I'll take a look at KJ later and form an opinion based on that, for now adanai you are on my undecided list, right now you seem pro-town, but that could just be a clever camouflage. in my mind we also need to pressure the Meapak_Ziphh/Ace team a little more, as I think they may well be scum (if nothing else Ace's whole "you should lynch people who aren't going to help you win" attitude is very disturbing) For now the reasons given are compelling enough for me to vote Orgolove ##Vote Orgolove/Flamewheel | ||
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
On January 08 2011 08:22 deconduo wrote: I'm reading the analyses. My problem is that I think both orgolove and kingjames are scummy (flamewheel hasn't posted enough and aidnai's posts seem legit to me), but its pretty obvious that at least one of them isn't maf. I certainly agree that orgolove feels pretty scumy, my worry is that if the kingjames/aidnai team is mafia then they are doing a very good job of hiding it and leading the lynches, which means if we dont hit a mafia tonight, I'll be almost certain that they are and need to be hung. Right now I'm in the most serious of doubts. For now I think I'll keep my vote as it is, its a vote of confidence that kingjames and aidnai are not infact scum and that orgolove is. If they are wrong though then they better have a really persuasive candidate. | ||
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
Persuaded by the above arguments, there's still time for me to change it if I change my mind but for now this is it | ||
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
forgot to bold | ||
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
Lets take it from day 1 shall we Day 1: Mafia discovers which setup they are up against, sort of, they either have a role blocker or they don’t. Lets see where both paths lead Day 1 with a role blocker, basically here the mafia has one goal, to try to establish whether they are up against 2 blues or no blues, if they are up against two blues then they have to try to get them to claim asap to take them out Day 1 without a roleblocker. The mafia knows they are up either against a medic or a DT, the challenge is to establish which and take it out as soon as possible, if they play their hand right they may be able to fake claim the other role. Night 1 with or without- the mafia chooses to take out LSB the most vocal person in the town, this is the obvious choice for the medic to protect and as LSB dies the mafia can essentially conclude that there is no medic or that the medic is rather stupid Night 1 with a role blocker- Here is where things get interesting, if the mafia has a role blocker then they chose to role block Subversion, this would make sense if there is a possibility they might be up against two blues, also they don’t know whether their hit on LSB has been successful yet, hence their only real choice was to use it. Why Subversion? If the mafia is moderately intelligent they noticed that he was essentially just lurking and hence could possibly be a blue trying to avoid the mafia’s attention on the first day. Night 1 without a role blocker – this one assumes that Subversion is Mafia, and is claiming to be role blocked to make the town think that they are in setup 1 or 2. However this to me seems like a less than wise choice, unless the mafia is prepared to have the other member claim to be role blocked the following day, honestly if the mafia did this it had to be to setup a fake role claim, if this is so where is it and why hasn’t it manifested? Also why did the second member not claim his role block today allowing one the members to claim a probable setup 2 and thus a “fake claim” from Nemesis? For this reason this seems unlikely. It just feels way too ballsy for mafia no real tangible benefit. Day 2 with a role blocker - The mafia is pretty content with the fact that Subversion is gathering suspicion for telling the town he was role blocked, since none of their members are under suspicion (the only threatened people are subversion and the aidnai teams, as well as Orgolove all of which they know to be innocent. (Since the mafia would have to be Nemesis and meapak or Aidnai, and nemesis’ attack on Aidnai clears him in my mind if we assume this setup, hence leaving meapak as the only viable other scum) Day 2 without a role blocker, this incriminates aidnai as he seems to push for Orgolove/Flamewheel and barely manages to escape the push forming against him, in this case subversion and aidnai basically have to be mafia, and they are just happy that they avoided death, it still doesn’t account for why aidnai didn’t either claim to have been role blocked the following morning, thus clearing subversion and setting up Nemesis for a rather harsh fall or claim the missing role, medic. This leads me to suspect that the mafia does in fact have a role blocker, and that they’ve been very wise about how to use him. Night 2 with a role blocker – the mafia hits and either role blocks Subversion again (as claiming hey I was role blocked for the second time would make him doubly suspicious) or chooses to save the block, knowing that if they can get Sub to hang then the game is in the bag for them. Day 3 – here nemesis role claims, leading to our current predicament, one of two situations, either Nemesis and meapak are scum or Nemesis is clear and subversion and aidnai are scum. As I see it would make no sense for a member of the mafia to claim to have been role blocked and then have no follow up on the following day, and no fake roleclaim, for this reason I believe the mafia has a role blocker and that Nemesis is most certainly mafia, with meapak almost certainly being the other. | ||
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GMarshal
United States21994 Posts
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