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The only 100% confirmed townies are the dead ones.
1. LSB/Kavdragon - Killed Night 1
3. Beneather/Bloody_C0bbler - Lynched Day 1
4. Deconduo/Chezinu - Killed Night 2
9. Flamewheel/Orgolove - Lynched Day 2
leaving
2. TheMango/Gmarshal/Foolishness
5. Meapak_Ziphh/Ace
6. KingJames01/Aidnai
7. Incognito/Subversion
8. Chaoser/Nemesis
Based on my prior analysis of team 2, I am convinced that they are green.
I know that I'm green, and I think it should be possible to come to this conclusion by analyzing my behavior as well.
That leaves 2 scum out of
5. Meapak_Ziphh/Ace
7. Incognito/Subversion
8. Chaoser/Nemesis
There are only two options here.
1) Nemesis is telling the truth.
-Nemesis/meapak are clear, subversion is scum.
-subversion fake claimed the roleblock, there is no roleblocker
-We are in setup 4: 2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town
-Either aidnai/KJ or Gmarshal/foolishness/mango are the remaining scum team.
Problems:
-Assuming Nemesis is really a DT, why not pick orgolove night one? why not pick me night two?
-I don't believe Gmarshal et al are scum.
-Doesn't explain Subversion's complete lack of interest in the game.
or 2) Nemesis is lying
-Scum team is pushing an easy lynch to finish us off
-Subversion is an apathetic townie, he told the truth about his roleblock claim
-With no blues claiming and a mafia roleblocker, we are in setup 2
-The remaining scum team is between aidnai/meapak/mango-gmarshal
-most likely remaining scum is meapak (since nemesis tried to clear them, and other teams are likely greens)
Problems:
-why would scum do something so bold when they were doing just fine without a fakeclaim? It's almost certain one of subversion/aidnai would have been lynched today anyway.
For me right now, it comes down to Gmarshal being town. That right there proves to me that nemesis is lying. Of course, I need to convince Gmarshal/mango and subversion that I am town as well. Have you been able to talk to foolishness yet? I feel weird tooting my own horn, but if I have to, I will go back and analyze myself to show I can't be mafia.
A HUGE issue for town right now is subversion being afk. If he doesn't show up and he is town, then the only way we get a town lynch done today is if we get our votes on a scum before they get their votes on us. Therefore, Gmarshal/Mango, I'm urging you to vote nemesis immediately, even if you aren't 100% convinced by what I say at the moment. If subversion really is scum, then town will be able to get a majority vote whether or not he shows up. If subversion is innocent, then it is imperative that we get our lynch votes ASAP.
##Vote Nemesis/Chaoser
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On January 10 2011 05:12 Nemesis wrote:Show nested quote +On January 10 2011 04:59 aidnai wrote:
If mafia are confident enough that we have setup 2 to fake roleclaim, there's no need to roleblock anyone. That's frighteningly obvious I thought.... If mafia does indeed have a roleblocker, they wouldn't have known it was setup 2 until after their supposed blue snipe on deconduo.
Even so, the only person they could have roleblocked would be subversion, who is not around to tell us about it. If they roleblocked anyone else, subversion would be somewhat cleared.
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either way mango, I need you to vote nemesis right now. I'll post this again it's too important to be missed.
A HUGE issue for town right now is subversion being afk. If he doesn't show up and he is town, then the only way we get a town lynch done today is if we get our votes on a scum before they get their votes on us. Therefore, Gmarshal/Mango, I'm urging you to vote nemesis immediately, even if you aren't 100% convinced by what I say at the moment. If subversion really is scum, then town will be able to get a majority vote whether or not he shows up. If subversion is innocent, then it is imperative that we get our lynch votes ASAP.
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On January 10 2011 05:48 TheMango wrote:
I see, because if it's tied, it's whoever got their vote in first?
That's correct Mango. I hope to god gmarshal shows up like right now because ace/nemesis are both here and about to vote for subversion...
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On January 10 2011 05:49 Ace wrote:See the problem here is that not only is subversion pretty much inactive but no one else has reported being role blocked. While Nemesis may be a fake DT claim I don't think so. For one I still think aidnai isn't Town oriented. Here aidnai, here's a post of yours I was just looking at here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewpost.php?post_id=7488394Specifically this: Show nested quote +
think Nemesis' vote was fishy to say the least, and even though I don't trust LSB or Ace per se, I don't think they are scum either.
I mean really. You don't even have a solid stance + the fact you appeared on both innocent wagons. I mean seriously how many times do I have to look back at your posts and see "I have a really bad feeling". You haven't exactly been committed to anything this game.But for now we'll ignore you. I think we have to roll with Nemesis here. 1.) No one else has been reportedly role blocked 2.) If Nemesis is faking a DT claim that's a sick play because of this: Show nested quote +On January 07 2011 08:13 Nemesis wrote:On January 06 2011 23:28 deconduo wrote:
Everyone claims to be a cop and gives out a report, if/when the real cop dies town can then look at what the reports were. Its used in situations with a roleblocker or when theres no medic protection so that cop can't safely claim openly. The biggest disadvantage with it is that mafia can work out who the cop is quicker than normal by eliminating people who give wrong reports. I don't really see how that will be helpful to town. Right now I am suspicious of subversion and aidnai. I will make an analysis on them later and decide my vote. As for subversion's claim of being roleblocked, there is a possibility that he is lying, but he could also be telling the truth so it is a bit WIFOM. My senior chaoser is rather inactive, and only pms me once in a while.  Nemesis did say he was suspicious of Subversion. If he's a real Detective then his Night Check would make sense since it follows up with him claiming he's suspect of Subversion right here. So with this in mind and no other role block claims I think it's best we lynch Subversion.
Your analysis of me is laughable Ace. I'm the most outstanding figure in this game, I am pretty much singlehandedly responsible for orgolove's lynch, yet you say I never really take a stand?
Here's a stand for you: Nemesis dies today, you die tomorrow.
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On January 10 2011 05:55 Ace wrote:
Mango take your vote off of Nemesis. It's majority lynch and you could end up costing us the game. If you think you may switch later take your vote off now. If you aren't sure DONT VOTE.
Rofl ace, just switch your vote to subversion already and be done with it. Unless you're scared to be that obvious in case subversion really does show up?
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Mango, yes, leave your vote until you have made up your mind. The votes aren't counted until day ends.
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On January 10 2011 06:04 Ace wrote:
I can't vote remember?
So if you are claiming you were responsible for Orgo's lynch, and appeared on another innocent lynch wagon then why should I believe you? I just quoted a post of yours where you said you don't really think myself or LSB are scum but don't exactly trust us. You say Nemesis is fishy but you didn't vote for him. That's wishy washy.
If you believe you are the most outstanding figure in this game and we haven't caught any mafia then yea, I think it's safe to say I don't mind lynching you. If you can present a scenario where Subversion is telling the truth about being role blocked and Nemesis must be a fake DT then show it.
@Mango: If your vote is there and someone else comes in and quickvotes then it's an instant lynch.
That is false, it's not majority lynch ending day early or anything of the sort mango. Just like the previous nights, the votes will be tallied at day end and in the event of a tie, the person to receive the votes first gets lynched.
Ace, you're now saying I should be lynched for being part of two bad lynches. First of all, in no way does being part of bad lynches make me scum, and second, I tried my best to prevent the beneather inactivity lynch when he showed up with 5minutes to go and posted. obvious scum tell amirite?
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On January 10 2011 06:49 Ace wrote:Being part of 2 bad lynches doesn't mean you are Scum. Taken into account with everything else though I don't see how you aren't Scum. Everything else:
-Took initiative to change the inactive town atmosphere
-Tried to stop the beneather lynch at the last minute because of new information
-applied pressure to various people (nemesis, ace, subversion, orgolove, beneather) who were not contributing or appeared questionable
-expressed my thoughts fearlessly and frequently
-attracted all manner of attention to myself
Also if you wanted to prevent the beneather lynch because he was inactive then why didn't orgolove get the same treatment? I wanted to stop the beneather lynch because when he did post, he convinced me that he was a townie. Orgolove on the other hand was inactive but not afk, and nothing he did gave me any reason to believe he was town. Additionally, the only other lynch option yesterday was subversion. Would that have been better?Like I said before. If you can make a case for Subversion telling the truth about the roleblock and Nemesis lying about his DT claim I'm all ears. I already presented the case for nemesis being a lying scum.Show nested quote +On January 10 2011 05:23 aidnai wrote:
...
There are only two options here.
1) Nemesis is telling the truth.
-Nemesis/meapak are clear, subversion is scum.
-subversion fake claimed the roleblock, there is no roleblocker
-We are in setup 4: 2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town
-Either aidnai/KJ or Gmarshal/foolishness/mango are the remaining scum team.
Problems:
-Assuming Nemesis is really a DT, why not pick orgolove night one? why not pick me night two?
-I don't believe Gmarshal et al are scum.
-Doesn't explain Subversion's complete lack of interest in the game.
or 2) Nemesis is lying
-Scum team is pushing an easy lynch to finish us off
-Subversion is an apathetic townie, he told the truth about his roleblock claim
-With no blues claiming and a mafia roleblocker, we are in setup 2
-The remaining scum team is between aidnai/meapak/mango-gmarshal
-most likely remaining scum is meapak (since nemesis tried to clear them, and other teams are likely greens)
Problems:
-why would scum do something so bold when they were doing just fine without a fakeclaim? It's almost certain one of subversion/aidnai would have been lynched today anyway.
For me right now, it comes down to Gmarshal being town. That right there proves to me that nemesis is lying. Of course, I need to convince Gmarshal/mango and subversion that I am town as well. Have you been able to talk to foolishness yet? I feel weird tooting my own horn, but if I have to, I will go back and analyze myself to show I can't be mafia.
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On January 10 2011 06:53 Ace wrote:
By the way if Nemesis is telling the truth then this exists:
2 Mafia Goon, 1 Detective, 6 Town.
I already pointed this out -_-
If he is telling the truth AND Subversion is also then this exists:
If nemesis is telling the truth, Subversion is scum, extremely unlikely to have been roleblocked
1 Mafia Role Blocker, 1 Mafia Goon, 5 Town, 1 Medic, 1 Detective
However no one has claimed medic and no one has counter-claimed DT. Subversion isn't here defending himself either. Why would you believe him over Nemesis? I think it's much more likely that a green will completely fail to show up to defend himself than a red. Unfortunately, neither of my lynch targets showed up yesterday... Don't you think it's something that no one else has been role blocked?no, it's pretty much expected whether subversion was telling the truth or not. Mafia would never confirm subversion's innocence by blocking someone else, especially since he's an easy lynch target.
Otherwise you must be making the claim that Mafia figured out the setup a day ago and wanted to claim DT in advance or weren't afraid of a counter-claim. This also means they purposely wouldn't roleblock anyone again.Mafia didn't have to know the setup to figure out it's smarter to only block subversion or no one at all
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I'm not talking to you anymore Ace. I'm not getting in a spam war when I need my townies to be able to decide clearly and quickly.
Gmarshal -- this is for you when you get here.
A HUGE issue for town right now is subversion being afk. If he doesn't show up and he is town, then the only way we get a town lynch done today is if we get our votes on a scum before they get their votes on us. Therefore, Gmarshal/Mango, I'm urging you to vote nemesis immediately, even if you aren't 100% convinced by what I say at the moment. If subversion really is scum, then town will be able to get a majority vote whether or not he shows up. If subversion is innocent, then it is imperative that we get our lynch votes ASAP.
On January 10 2011 05:53 TheMango wrote:
##Vote Nemesis/Chaoser
voting now in case it comes down to a tie, but this is not a 100% confirmed vote for me, I may switch before the day is up.
On January 10 2011 05:54 TheMango wrote:
I'll see if I can get in touch with gmarshall
Please vote first, talk later for the reasons listed above. If I'm right, town is dead the moment meapak shows up. This is basically a race. I'll be around if you have questions.
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Thank you. Remember, all this vote does is buy us time to decide properly. Now you have to make your real decision.
So here's the issues you need to think through.
Assuming that you (team 2) are not mafia, then you only have two options. Nemesis is DT: Subversion/aidnai for scum team. OR Nemesis is liar: Nemesis/meapak for scum team. There's no other possibilities, thanks to Nemesis' claim.
All you have to do is decide is which combo it is.
Subversion, just in case you do show up, 1) I hope you have a good reason for your activity level (but hopefully nothing horrible happened), and 2), I don't believe there's any rush for your vote, so take your time ask questions and decide well.
Nemesis/Chaoser: 2
GMarshal (0.5) (safety vote)
TheMango (0.5) (safety vote)
aidnai
Subversion: 1
Nemesis
Not yet voted: Subversion, Meapak_ziphh
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headed out and about for the evening. Nemesis, the problem with your claim is that it means either GMango or me are scum, and I don't believe that. I went back over the posting history, and meapak/nemesis scum team makes a lot more sense.
If Gmango comes to any conclusions (sorry just getting tired of typing both names), please post in the thread at the very least for the sake of subversion who may/may not show up to vote at some point. You guys have an advantage in having a few perspectives you can trust (3 man team I mean), so I trust you to get this one right.
Be back later tonight.
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Back. I'm trying to re-read everything from gmarshal/mango with an open mind to see if I could be wrong about them. I was wrong about orgo and I don't want to tunnel.
If I throw out my assumption that team 2 is town, then I'm open to the possibility of a subversion/gmango scum team.
Chaoser, I know subversion has looked pretty damn scummy. But scum try their best NOT to look scummy, and that's what's missing from the picture with Subversion. In any case, I made my earlier posts on the basis of reading gmango as green, not based on my read of subversion. Assuming you're really the DT, and you get your way today with lynching subversion: Who's next, me or gmango? It's not too early to talk about and it will help me think things through today.
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Nemesis, that is the one unsolved problem for me. You fake claiming...just doesn't make sense. You have a free lynch on either me or subversion anyway. I end up in WIFOM land whenever I try to figure this out.
Gmarshal - gonna have to agree with Ace that you should keep it simple. The kind of argument you went through is way too fragile.
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The reason I want to hear is I need another perspective on gmango. KJ is not around, and even though I can't fully trust the rest of you, I want to hear some arguments about why gmango is scum or not. Remember my entire line of reasoning is resting on team 2 being town...
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Hi meapak. What's your read on team 2?
Also, look me in the eyes and tell me you're town.
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I'm rethinking my read of team 2 right now meapak. If I was actually wrong about them, that means virtually every single opinion I have formed this game was incorrect... I thought orgolove was red, I thought deconduo was blue, I thought gmango was green, I thought nemesis was suspicious.
I'm gonna sleep on this one. see you all in the morning.
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this feels like a duel at high noon. Who will flinch first?
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whoa, i didn't see you had just posted weird timing.
I am going to switch to subversion. But because it's irreversible if I do (unless subversion shows up, which I doubt), I'll still postpone changing my vote.
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remember Mango, once you switch your vote it's final, because of the tie situation. So don't do it until you're absolutely certain. Just saying.
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EPT
