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TL Mafia XXXIV: Pokemafia - Page 4

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 20 2010 01:01 GMT
#1039
There's a very very small possibility to win without double lynch tomorrow, but it depends on how successful things are today.

I am very concerned that Infundibulum is not dead. I'm starting to believe Shockeyy was a sacrifice by the mafia to give them reason to eliminate me. If we hit any number of mafia today I'm planning on killing him tonight.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 20 2010 05:38 GMT
#1044
You guys make it sound like I'm some sort of bad puppy.

The more I think about it the more I'm convinced Shockeyy was a sacrifice made by the mafia. Shockeyy himself gave us no leads anywhere, and if I recall no one really stepped up to defend him. Without the modkills yesterday we could've been at 12/5/1, which means you could have afforded to lynch me and some other dude that the mafia would have drawn you to, and then hopefully take the game at 8/5. But then there were the modkills, so things have changed.

I think that Shockeyy's vote list has to contain a few mafia, though it's quite possible they just split their vote between our three candidates yesterday. Note that Oceanic and dinmsab both had single votes for themselves/Gabriel respectively. Quite frankly I'm more than willing to buy that they're town - or at least, put our focus elsewhere for the time being. Did Shockeyy's death give anyone any more credibility? LSB's voted Shockeyy on Day 2, so I am thinking that should clear him as town-ish. It leaves Gabriel, deconduo, KtheZ, GGQ and Infundibulum as targets for analysis.

This would make Node most likely to be mafia, should the mafia have actually split their votes. The Node/DCLXVI conversation points to Node being more likely mafia as well. Unfortunately as mentioned I'm not sure that mafia need to risk another player at this point in time. If he dies blue today we may need to reconsider DCLXVI for tonight.

We have DCLXVI, Kavdragon, Eiii, Brownbear and Shockeyy on me yesterday. Shockeyy was scum as we found out; Kavdragon is likely town and Eiii is questionable. DCLXVI's fate is tied with Node's in my view.

As for Brownbear, if he was town and so vehemently believed that an alliance would be unfruitful, he should have been pushing for my lynch harder yesterday, because the town will be in LYLO no matter what happens to me today.

Again, this is dependent on the logic of Shockeyy being sacrificed, because I think he could have easily kept silent and let the town flounder a little longer without a target.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 20 2010 05:59 GMT
#1046
On December 20 2010 14:46 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2010 13:29 Kavdragon wrote:
On December 20 2010 08:29 BrownBear wrote:
On December 20 2010 08:22 LSB wrote:
On December 20 2010 08:12 BrownBear wrote:
On December 20 2010 07:24 Kavdragon wrote:
Ok, to make sure we are all on the same page, here's the situation: We are currently at 8/5/1. By lynch, or M2's night kill, we must kill two mafia two days in a row to survive. Here is my bubble, let me know if I did anything wrong. (http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5751/mafiaendgame.jpg if you want to see it un-resized, and not blurry)

[image loading]

This means that we cannot lynch M2. (For at least two nights, anyways)


On December 20 2010 05:40 BrownBear wrote:
##Vote: DCLXVI
##Vote: d3_crescentia
##Vote: Double Lynch


You appear to have slipped sir. Vote Brownbear.

I waited to post this to see if anyone would vote D3, Brownbear didn't disappoint.
Also, this may or may not make DCLXVI less suspicious. You decide.



I disagree with you, but then, I'm biased against town alliances w/ 3rd parties. They never work out well for anyone.

Personally, my view is that if we know who MewTwo is, we should lynch him. End of story.

What do you think we should do today if we don't work with MewTwo then?
Also, how will the numbers look like?


Mewtwo has failed to net us a single TR kill so far. I highly doubt that he will.

Lets say we lynch a TR and Mewtwo today. That will put us, after night kills, at 7 to 4.
No. After night kills we will be at 6 to 4.

Now, let's say we lynch 2 TRs today, That's 2 kills from them, then a kill from Mewtwo which will put us at either 7 to 3 or 6 to 3. However, that's relying on Mewtwo to actually hit a TR - something I highly doubt will happen.
Again, no. If we lynch two TR today, then it's 8/3/1. After night kills it's 6/2/1 or 5/3/1.

Or how about 1 TR, 1 Town. We have 8 town to 4 TR and mewtwo left, that's 4 nightkills, unless we get HUGELY lucky, we could be put in a 4-4 situation where we'd be absolutely fucked.
I think you are under the assumption that there are 9 town. There are 8. In the case of lynching 1TR and 1 Town, we wold be looking at 7 to 4. After night kills, 5 to 4 or 6 to 3. That situation would depend on D3's ability to snipe a mafia.

We're basically in LYLO at this point, we need to kill off the anti-town players we know. And we know d3 is anti-town.

D3 is working with us for now. I agree that he needs to go eventually, but if we assume him to be hostile, then we can assume that we've lost as well.




Your math is fail, I'm afraid. Lynch one TR, that drops them to 4, which drops their KP to 2. Thus, we will have one more town then your projections.

Honestly, I don't know how you could have missed that, unless you were deliberately trying to mislead town.

What?

8 town 5 TR 1 mewtwo.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 20 2010 06:01 GMT
#1047
That makes it 6/4/0 if we lynch 1TR/1M2. Are YOU trying to mislead town?
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 21 2010 00:12 GMT
#1055
On December 21 2010 03:21 BrownBear wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 20 2010 15:01 d3_crescentia wrote:
That makes it 6/4/0 if we lynch 1TR/1M2. Are YOU trying to mislead town?


I count 9 Pokealliance remaining, so unless I'm missing something huge...

The frontpage isn't correct. If there are only 14 players left with 5 being mafia and 1 being me, how can we have 9?
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 21 2010 04:23 GMT
#1064
On December 21 2010 09:33 LSB wrote:
D3, why are you pushing for the Node lynch?

Thinking I might switch. Hard to make a decision right now.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 21 2010 04:47 GMT
#1072
lawlawlawlawlawlawl I'm killing infundibulum tonite
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 21 2010 05:25 GMT
#1080
On December 21 2010 14:18 Infundibulum wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 21 2010 13:47 d3_crescentia wrote:
lawlawlawlawlawlawl I'm killing infundibulum tonite


what did i ever do to you?

not give me your love </3
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 21 2010 05:33 GMT
#1082
Now can we get a mass roleclaim so I know which mafia clown to kill?
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 21 2010 05:41 GMT
#1084
On December 21 2010 14:37 LSB wrote:
I'm cloyster
But, I'm all for killing Infun, or DCXLIV

orly

what about gabe's cloyster claim
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 21 2010 06:55 GMT
#1106
Man this dramallama needs to die.

Maybe I kill DCLXVI to see where his bombs are placed.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 21 2010 07:06 GMT
#1109
Don't forget M2. If I finagle it just right I can still win. -_-
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 21 2010 07:18 GMT
#1114
On December 21 2010 16:14 Infundibulum wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 21 2010 16:06 d3_crescentia wrote:
Don't forget M2. If I finagle it just right I can still win. -_-


Yeah, but you're the only one in the game that wants that.

they say it's lonely at the top. i bet all mewtwo ever needed was a friend

Why won't you love me? WHY WON'T YOU LOVE ME?
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 22 2010 10:01 GMT
#1149
On December 22 2010 16:02 Meapak_Ziphh wrote:
Ok now that this game is over I can ask who killed me and why? I thought I would have been a terrible night one hit.
I did. It was a gut call based on how noob you were posting and but it turned out you were just what you appeared. I figured Night 1 I'd be okay if I missed anyway. Sorry =/

For my night 2 I was actually torn between Inf/Darth, as I thought one of them had to be mafia. In the end I picked Darth so that was unfortunate.

Night 3 I followed LSB's suggestion to hit brocket. Originally my plan was to target DC or LSB had the heat not been brought down on me. I should've pushed harder for DC; also I missed out on the chainsaw defense tell by Kavdragon. Silly, silly me.

Also, apologies to Brownbear. Looks like you had the right of it.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
d3_crescentia
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States4054 Posts
December 23 2010 03:28 GMT
#1182
On December 23 2010 03:59 Kavdragon wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 22 2010 19:01 d3_crescentia wrote:
Night 3 I followed LSB's suggestion to hit brocket. Originally my plan was to target DC or LSB had the heat not been brought down on me. I should've pushed harder for DC; also I missed out on the chainsaw defense tell by Kavdragon. Silly, silly me.



Out of curiosity, what was my chainsaw defense? The massive analysis of you that i pulled up? (I'm not saying I didn't do it, I'm just a little confused on the terms.)

Chainsaw defense: a player who defends another player by attacking the other player's attacker is very probably scum. As with all mafiawiki scumtells it's about as accurate as it isn't, but there were a few things that SHOULD have tipped me off.

I mean, yeah - I was posting pretty aggressively and ragingly so those were fair points, but the thing is that I should have spotted it for what it was when you failed to give your opinion on DCLXVI afterward instead of deflating and ignoring you as a potential suspect.
once, not long ago, there was a moon here
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