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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 06 2010 08:32 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I just recounted, it is 8v4. James is like perma AFK. I think hes working on a book or something. It isn't mylo or lylo. Its just time to stop sucking.
Since Chaos Ensuant shares the mafia win condition, does that mean it is safe to assume there are none remaining (or they are included as one of the 4)?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Can I request that the mad hatter either pm me or someone they trust to reveal who they have bombs on right now?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Well here are our remaining scenarios:
Scenario: Lynch a town
Town loss
Scenario: Lynch a scum
8-3 lynch
5-3 hits
5-2 lynch
3-2 hits
3-1 lynch
2-1 hits
2-0 lynch
4 correct lynches required
Scenario: Lynch an Elder
8-3 lynch
6-3 hits
6-2 lynch
4-2 hits
4-1 lynch
3-1 hits
2-0 lynch
4 correct lynches required
Both these scenarios assume the hatter is not hit. Given the information the mafia has, this is certainly possible. If by chance they do hit the hatter, then based on where his bombs lie, the chances of victory are much higher.
Alternate route, we lynch the MH:
Scenario: MH is elder
8-3 lynch
6-3 night hits
6-2 lynch
4-2 night hits
3-1 lynch
2-1 night nits
2-0 lynch
3 correct lynches required (since the MH was the first lynch)
Scenario: Bombs hit an elder and scum
7-2 lynch
5-2 night hits
5-1 lynch
4-1 night hits
1 correct lynches required to reach 4-1
Scenario: Bombs hit 2 scum
7-2 lynch
5-2 night hits
5-1 lynch
4-1 night hits
1 correct lynches required to reach 4-1
Scenario: Bombs hits elder and town
6-3 lynch
4-3 night hits
4-2 lynch
2-2 night hits
Town loss
Scenario: Bombs hits scum and town
6-3 lynch
4-3 night hits
4-2 lynch
2-2 night hits
Town loss
Scenario: Bomb hits two town
Town loss
The entire argument becomes invalid if the MH only has one bomb remaining. We have to decide if it is more likely for the MH to currently have 2 bombs on scum or for us to lynch correct 4 times in a row or have the mafia hit the hatter. Someone should probably check the numbers, but given these scenarios, I think not lynching the hatter is the best way to go.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
I just realized that I forgot to take into account the existence of a second vet, so the scenarios probably won't play out like I suggested.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 07 2010 23:38 Radfield wrote:OK, sorry everyone, my Satellite Inet has been down due to a storm. First things first, lets not lynch me today  . People are throwing that around with little reasoning. That fact that not a single soul in this thread has spoken a word of defense towards me today should let you know i'm not red. Mafia are content to let me be the lynchee. Anyone actively pushing for my lynch or death through MH, gets some scum points. Second, we need to kill the godfather ASAP. If we have 4 mafia left, as people are assuming, then the only way to reduce KP quickly is by lynching the GF. Lynching the GF today leaves us in a better situation down the stretch. So in my mind, the question is who is the most likely to be the GF, not who is most likely to be mafia. Taking a look at who is left in this game: 2. Jcarlsoniv 4. Southrawrea - Still hasn't explained why he has not been hit. 10. Eiii
12. kitaman2713. Cubedin
14. esbenpm
19. node22. radfield25. Aeres27. KtheZ
29. Nemesis30. Glasse These are my personal thoughts right now(4 out of 5 are likely mafia), but we need to come to a consensus now before we go down the wire. Assuming we lynch correctly today, we need everyones thoughts on paper before the night finishes. Why? Because three more townies will die in the night, and using their opinions will help keep the mafia influence to a minimum down the stretch.
Hmm, so you call out 5 different people, but fail to provide reasons yourself. Care to elaborate?
I also find it interesting that you accuse our dt confirmed green. Sure, he could be the unlikely elder, but you haven't provided any reasons for what makes you think that.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 01:07 kitaman27 wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 23:38 Radfield wrote:OK, sorry everyone, my Satellite Inet has been down due to a storm. First things first, lets not lynch me today . People are throwing that around with little reasoning. That fact that not a single soul in this thread has spoken a word of defense towards me today should let you know i'm not red. Mafia are content to let me be the lynchee. Anyone actively pushing for my lynch or death through MH, gets some scum points. Second, we need to kill the godfather ASAP. If we have 4 mafia left, as people are assuming, then the only way to reduce KP quickly is by lynching the GF. Lynching the GF today leaves us in a better situation down the stretch. So in my mind, the question is who is the most likely to be the GF, not who is most likely to be mafia. Taking a look at who is left in this game: 2. Jcarlsoniv 4. Southrawrea - Still hasn't explained why he has not been hit. 10. Eiii
12. kitaman2713. Cubedin
14. esbenpm
19. node22. radfield25. Aeres27. KtheZ
29. Nemesis30. Glasse These are my personal thoughts right now(4 out of 5 are likely mafia), but we need to come to a consensus now before we go down the wire. Assuming we lynch correctly today, we need everyones thoughts on paper before the night finishes. Why? Because three more townies will die in the night, and using their opinions will help keep the mafia influence to a minimum down the stretch. Hmm, so you call out 5 different people, but fail to provide reasons yourself. Care to elaborate? I also find it interesting that you accuse our dt confirmed green. Sure, he could be the unlikely elder, but you haven't provided any reasons for what makes you think that.
In addition, you question South because he hasn't explained why he hasn't been hit. If he is town, then he has no explanation. Mafia is the one deciding the hits. That is similar to last game where Ace demanded I prove my innocence by explaining how I could have a watcher role that tracks. There is no correct answer that I could make. I'm not saying he gets a free pass, but the same logic could be used towards you not explaining why you haven't been hit.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 03:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence.
You heard the man, no going back now that he role claimed. If your vote isn't on him then you make yourself a target.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 03:34 CubEdIn wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 03:29 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 03:27 CubEdIn wrote:On December 08 2010 03:09 kitaman27 wrote:On December 08 2010 03:03 jcarlsoniv wrote:
Ok, I am going to make an executive decision. I believe lynching the MH will put the town in a good position for tomorrow if everything goes well. We are sort of stuck between a rock and a hard place here, and we need some bombs to blow them down.
I have started to become more confident that my bombs are in the right place. I'm still not completely sure, and I apologize if shit doesn't go well, but I feel that a risk must be taken. High risk, high reward.
Let Operation 72 Virgins (not 99 =P) commence. You heard the man, no going back now that he role claimed. If your vote isn't on him then you make yourself a target. What if someone else claims and you two are mafia? Just asking, that would be funny.  Why would I tell people to lynch me if I'm mafia? lol First of all, I'm just going into deep WIFOM here, but since you're playing along with the discussion, let's digress! Many reasons! a) Find out who the real MH is (look for the guy with a surprised look on his face that seems to be going "heeeeeeey....") b) Cause a huge shit storm, in case there are 2 MHs claiming. The Mafia will be united, but the town won't. They will no longer know who to trust and votes will be split at least 2-ways (tho, one of them will be the real MHer so no harm there I guess). c) Draw attention to some players while hiding others. A lot can happen if that amount of chaos is ensued. I'm not saying it's a wise move for mafia, It's not. But it would be hella-funny, and not as unreasonable as it sounds. The only real argument against it is that town doesn't have any real leads anyway, so there's no need to push a snowball down the hill. 
If we are both mafia, then I suggest you lynch him to kill a scum.
If we are both town, then I suggest you lynch him to let him carry out his plan.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 04:39 Radfield wrote:Show nested quote +On December 08 2010 04:28 jcarlsoniv wrote:On December 08 2010 04:17 Radfield wrote:
This is a bad plan people, and not just because I know for a fact that it will lose us the game. Now, obviously me yelling I'm green will not sway anyone, so lets set that aside.
If we're assuming here that the two bomb victims are mafia, which we are, then this is STILL the wrong way to go about this. Why not lynch them one after another, today and tomorrow. By voting for the MH today, we lose a day of voting, which at this point is what is going to pin down mafia. Yes 4 lynches in a row is a tall order, but each successful lynch makes it more likely to pin mafia the next night. Why? Because of voting tendancies. Each day gives us another round of votes to look at, and also wipes more townies out of the way, making it easier to hit mafia. The longer this game goes, the more likely we are to win(obviously). Why are we trying to shorten it?
If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). It keeps a confirmed townie alive(Jcarl) and gives us more votes to analyse as well - Who's defending who? Who's sure player x is mafia? Etc. Why are we trying to stifle discussion by giving the mafia an easy win with the MH?
Kitaman you keep talking how because Jcarl is outted now, that puts us at the point of no return, but I don't see how this is true. It gives us a player to rally around, who won't die, who we KNOW is town aligned(no counter-claim). Why is this a bad thing?? Was this a soft claim that you and Eiii are scum and that we should lynch you today and tomorrow? Interesting... Also, now that I'm outed there is no chance for me to get hit by the mafia tonight, so my role is null unless we use it. Are you joking? I assume you're referring to this sentence: + Show Spoiler +If you guys truly believe that me and Eiii the most likely mafia, then lynching one today and one tomorrow is the smarter play(in principal). Obviously lynching me today is just as much an auto-loss as lynching you(the MH). I'm trying to show that this is a bad idea in principle, and that this is not the optimum strategy right now. Using your role is not a priority by any stretch. Also, there is a very good chance you will get hit by mafia tonight, since at least one of your bombs is on a townie.
You might have sealed your own fate with this one. Trying to reveal the second bomb location can't be a protown move. Mafia can confirm if both bombs are on a town, which leads to an autowin situation for them.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 05:10 Radfield wrote:
YOU revealed the second bomb location to me(via PM). If I am mafia I have no need to say it in the thread.... I'd just PM it to the other mafia members. Do you deny this?? All I'm doing is letting everyone know what we're actually talking about. Besides, if I'm mafia then I already know if Eiii is mafia or not. You're not making any sense here.
That's not what I'm saying. I'm saying, you revealing the second bomb means your alternate lynch proposal becomes weaker. Now that the mafia know both bombs, its too risky to let the MH live.
On December 08 2010 05:10 Radfield wrote:
Why do you even care if mafia can confirm both bombs are on a townie?? YOUR plan is to blow the Hatter up tonight.
Why do I care if mafia can confirm both bombs? Because if they can, it could lead to an auto-lose situation. Seems like a pretty important reason. Thus, I stated it as flaw in the alternate plan, making the plan to blow up the Hatter stronger.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
Also your voting post doesn't make sense:
##Vote jcarlsoniv
This loses us the game though.
Why does it lose us the game if you don't know that the bomb is on yourself?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 09:09 Eiii wrote:
The ":/" is because I thought the plan had almost no chance of succeeding! My intention with that line was more along the lines of "mark my words..." than a definite statement, and it was dumb to say looking back on it. I had (and have) no trust in the town's ability to identify two mafia with 100% accuracy, and I wasn't happy that that was the plan we were moving forward with-- but I was NOT going to fuck everything up by voting against the town. Problem is, now voting with the town fucks everything up so I have to take the worst of both.
On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly.
Looks like you contradict yourself there.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 09:13 Eiii wrote:Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 13:45 Eiii wrote:On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly. I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap. ....yeah, then I changed my mind because I actually looked into what lynching the hatter could do instead of going off of everyone's 'this is town's only chance' posts. I didn't know it had such a good chance of killing us when I made that first post.
"If I'm understanding correctly" implies that you already saw the scenario posts and arguments for a MH lynch, no? Are you saying you endorsed the plan without thinking about it?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 09:22 Eiii wrote:
Pretty close to it. I was actually on like a ten minute break between finals at that point, and was most concerned with letting the town know I was supporting them. Obviously I went back and thoroughly read those posts later. I'm not going to pretend it was a good move at all.
After you realized the MH lynch plan was such a poor idea why didn't you post your new opinion in the thread? :/
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 09:37 Eiii wrote:I DID! Show nested quote +On December 07 2010 13:45 Eiii wrote:On December 07 2010 08:19 Eiii wrote:
The hatter plan seems best to me too, if I'm understanding correctly. I wasn't, the hatter plan is terrible. I don't feel like we have strong enough leads on two mafia to bet the whole game on not hitting any town with the bombs. If the hatter has any bombs on people he's not 100% sure are mafia, he should recall them asap.
Sorry, missed that.
On December 08 2010 09:37 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Tik tok on the clock, 23 minutes remain
You're practically begging us to change the lynch aren't you? :p
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
GG. Well played South. Looks like we lynched the wrong vet.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 10:02 SouthRawrea wrote:
OH LOLLL I VOTED AFTER THE GAME FINISHED
I demand a modkill. This game is under protest.
You were dt checked day one right?
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 10:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
I don't know why after you lynch the first veteran you didn't move to the second "veteran". Something I learned a few games ago, if you know that one of two people are mafia kill them both.
I'm not sure if anyone even knew south was the second vet after DrH died. Jcarl tried to get the role list, but I don't think he got a response and I just found out a couple hours ago in a pm with south. Why should we have lynched the second veteran though? Is two vet in a game with no vig concrete enough to make us think one of the two had to be a elder?
On December 08 2010 10:04 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
From what I skimmed, did Jcarlsoniv keep saying his second target was Eii? Because he never actually had a bomb on Eii. You guys didn't do anywhere near enough analysis later on and I don't know why after you lynch the first veteran you didn't move to the second "veteran". Something I learned a few games ago, if you know that one of two people are mafia kill them both.
It was to prevent mafia shenanigans. If mafia thought one of the bombs was on a town, things would go more smoothly. Guess it didn't help that a bomb really was on a town and they knew where the bombs were anyways.
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kitaman27
United States9245 Posts
On December 08 2010 10:22 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
I blame myself solely for this loss. By entrusting all information to SouthRawrea, I handed this game to the mafia. Sorry guys. My play was pretty poor in this game.
But live and learn right?
Lets all just agree to blame that n00b artanis for checking him in the first place.
South's "hey look guys. I have a role, check me please" is what made me trust him as a vet, guess it had an alternate motive.
We were only 10 minutes away from lynching Nemesis(protactinium). I'm going to have to go back and check how they dodged that bullet.
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EPT
