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On November 08 2010 05:19 KtheZ wrote:
I'll gladly check infundibulum next night if you ask me to, but im not sure if thats the most effective use for my power. The main problem is me getting to the next night. Assuming we have 1 medic left (which is pretty true), choosing who to save is basically WIFOM.
Please explain this post.
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I'm pretty sure L informed Cube that his role was impossible based on the description as well. That went well. Watcher is the name my role was given. Uh, please go back and read what I actually wrote. I said Cube's role didn't make sense unless there was some other role that could capitalize on the information, which I had no clue existed. Afterwards, I realized that if mafia was told who the doc is and if they had a m-rus spreader, they could give him M-rus, and use his prots to spread it around.
I never said Cube's role was impossible, only that there was a piece of the puzzle that was missing, that I ended up filling in later, because no one else bothered to do any thinking about it.
As for the current situation, Ace is right that what the role does doesn't match up with the role's name. None of the prior named standard roles have had any error, so that's pretty big in Ace's favor. On the other hand, Ace hasn't been as much of a jerk as he normally is this game, which is pretty odd, but Ace is normally a jerk when he's mafia too, so I dunno. I'm gonna go look at what the vote trends were going before the announcement was made, because those might be interesting.
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Basically Pandain was trending downwards, and Meapak/Hyperbola were headed upwards, prior to a bunch of people chain voting Ace. Meapak and Hyperbola both still haven't really made any solid thread presence since the fire's been off their tail.
NB, were you told a medic protected you? I remember an answer, but I can't find the post anymore. Kinda seems important.
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On November 08 2010 08:51 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2010 08:49 L wrote:
Basically Pandain was trending downwards, and Meapak/Hyperbola were headed upwards, prior to a bunch of people chain voting Ace. Meapak and Hyperbola both still haven't really made any solid thread presence since the fire's been off their tail.
NB, were you told a medic protected you? I remember an answer, but I can't find the post anymore. Kinda seems important. as for meapak's thread presence since I did my analysis on him, he claimed some Veteran Granny, who can take a hit but will kill any doctor that prots
Oh, no, I know, but you'd think if he's a vet, he'd be very vocal especially now that we're focusing on someone else.
As for NB, ok. Might have been PD, but I'm trying to figure out who bussed where.
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Ok. That wasn't a post aimed to make you look bad. I was just showing that denying the plausibility of a role, as if we know better, has not proven successful. Ace is basing his defense on the name of my role, while ignoring the fact that Amber has been able to confirm it.
Uh, but it did prove successful.
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On November 08 2010 09:56 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2010 09:55 L wrote:Ok. That wasn't a post aimed to make you look bad. I was just showing that denying the plausibility of a role, as if we know better, has not proven successful. Ace is basing his defense on the name of my role, while ignoring the fact that Amber has been able to confirm it. Uh, but it did prove successful. wait, are you talking about kitaman's role or Cubed's role here?
Seems like both. Once I discovered the M-rus portion of Cube's role, he was essentially confirmed blue. From mafia's point of view, the claim is hyper-complex to engineer. From his point of view, he didn't even think about m-rus spreading as an argument, nor did anyone else.
If mafia had thought about the trade off, someone would have made the comment very quickly.
Instead, we confirmed that mafia had probably infected cubed if they have a targetted infection method, which makes sense given what we've seen in terms of the M-rus spread. If cube repeatedly targetted himself, a N1 spread to him would have been immediately stopped, whereas n2 had a spread to someone who was involved with at least 2 other people. Given the net +4 infection rate we see afterwards, its likely mrus is actually ramping up its infection speed.
As for Ace's catch, I dont' see any of the standard roles working in a way other than the way they've typically worked. For mafia, a tradeoff here is optimal, but if they can get their player to avoid being hit, its game winning.
They push someone off the vote train and thus get the ability to push him later if they so choose, they pick a dangerous target to them and have him eliminated asap, and they get to control not only today's targets, but also one of tomorrow's. In that environment, they'll lose 1 mafia from the fake claim after protecting today's kp, giving them a net of 2 lynch, 2kp+1, 1/1 lynch, and 1+1. This rolls out to -8 townies -1 mafia, which puts us at 11 townies, 4 mafia.
But the kicker? Mrus just exploded. If mafia pick their targets and know who's infected they're less likely to get infected, which means mrus will explode for 7-9 people worth, killing maybe 1-2 mafia. At best, we're 4 town v 2 mafia. Lylo. At worst we've lost 2-4. And that's ignoring any other tricks they have up their sleeve. What's a probable trick? Their mrus spreader has mrus himself. If he's sacrificed, they don't care; he's going to die anyways.
That's why I'm far more willing to kill players like Nemesis who have been keeping their heads down, because it not only plays to classic mafia strengths, but it keeps blue's attention on other players and minimizes the likelihood that they've gotten infected. Meapak as well decided to show up and post a complete non sequitur, showing he's around but that he still doesn't want to deal with the shit that's been thrown at him. That's. Fucked. Up.
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On November 08 2010 10:10 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2010 10:10 youngminii wrote:
scum lose a KP if we lynch one today
which is why it's so important that we do does that mean it would be worth it to lynch both kitaman and Ace? >_____>
look at my post and put in -1 kp a night early. Seems doable, but if kitaman was bussed, or there's some kind of framer role, we're going to lose 2 blues and lose the game as mafia grab the easy wagon on someone town who wanted to push this lynch through.
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Hmm did I miss something here, because I have no idea what you are talking about. What m-rus portion of Cubed's role? When did you discover it, and when did he get confirmed before he died? The idea regarding cube's role being broken was that there was no real choice between the two pills. Once I realized that mafia might be able to target m-rus infections, mafia knowledge of a role that actively goes out and targets others turns the pills into an actual choice.
When I originally described the role, I said there was the possibility that knowledge would NEED to be manipulated by another role, and once I put the M-rus piece in the puzzle it all worked out.
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I suggest you look at 666's hatter role and the last Day post before assuming Decuondo wasn't hit.
Seems pretty clear that 666's bombs did not go off and that he killed himself.
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These last 2 pages are going to get very carefully read tomorrow. For now I'm sadly forced to sleep, though.
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On November 08 2010 15:52 infinitestory wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2010 15:50 L wrote:
I suggest you look at 666's hatter role and the last Day post before assuming Decuondo wasn't hit.
Seems pretty clear that 666's bombs did not go off and that he killed himself. we never said 666 blew deconduo with a bomb, in fact we clarified several times that his bombs never went off at all ace said (untruthfully, it seems o_O) that deconduo probably died in 666's suicide bomb
We?
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On November 09 2010 00:15 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2010 23:13 L wrote:On November 08 2010 15:52 infinitestory wrote:On November 08 2010 15:50 L wrote:
I suggest you look at 666's hatter role and the last Day post before assuming Decuondo wasn't hit.
Seems pretty clear that 666's bombs did not go off and that he killed himself. we never said 666 blew deconduo with a bomb, in fact we clarified several times that his bombs never went off at all ace said (untruthfully, it seems o_O) that deconduo probably died in 666's suicide bomb We? his bombs didn't go off. Read his description.
Click on 'show nested quote' and look at the first post.
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Ace, does your role have anything to do with m-rus? You haven't really claimed vig, but there's a second, unaccounted-for, portion of the kita claim against you. Please answer asap.
In other news: How is it that people who were called out for active lurking have continued to active lurk and aren't being called out on it?
The recent dancing around Kenpachi as a lynch target over Nemesis and Meapak doesn't seem to make much sense either; there's far more evidence of scum play for the aforementioned latter two, whereas the former seems to be getting voted exclusively on the condition that the votes will change.
That's fucking odd bro.
On November 08 2010 23:13 L wrote:Show nested quote +On November 08 2010 15:52 infinitestory wrote:On November 08 2010 15:50 L wrote:
I suggest you look at 666's hatter role and the last Day post before assuming Decuondo wasn't hit.
Seems pretty clear that 666's bombs did not go off and that he killed himself. we never said 666 blew deconduo with a bomb, in fact we clarified several times that his bombs never went off at all ace said (untruthfully, it seems o_O) that deconduo probably died in 666's suicide bomb We? Yeah, nevermind this, I just relooked over the last page. Seems I missed your small EWBOP post on my first read through and I had the hit synopsis you posted on the page before in my mind, so I was wondering why you were saying that you adopted kita's position when you had said the opposite less than 20 posts away.
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On November 09 2010 00:46 L wrote:
Ace, does your role have anything to do with m-rus?
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Isn't it weird though that no one is really massing votes on Ace or Pandain with only an hour to go? Are the mafia content with losing someone? Are they under pressure not to potentially expose themselves? Is no one on the top 3 actually mafia? This is exactly what I've been thinking this entire time. We've let inactive players, in a game heavily favoring inactive water-treading, get away with murder. I personally think that Nemesis is still 100% mafia, but now we're got runners up in Glasse, Kenpachi, NB, and whatnot.
I'm going to vote to even things up a bit, because the voting's been way too calm. Especially with that 1 hour reprieve granted: mafia didn't even bother trying to swing votes before then, which leads me to believe they're 100% sitting pretty at the moment.
More importantly, it seems we haven't hit double lynch quota yet, and from my prior analysis, there's very little chance that -1 townie will lose us the game, but cutting our lynch power tomorrow by half most certainly will if we don't hit a mafia tonight.
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On November 09 2010 08:40 Glasse wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2010 08:39 L wrote:Isn't it weird though that no one is really massing votes on Ace or Pandain with only an hour to go? Are the mafia content with losing someone? Are they under pressure not to potentially expose themselves? Is no one on the top 3 actually mafia? This is exactly what I've been thinking this entire time. We've let inactive players, in a game heavily favoring inactive water-treading, get away with murder. I personally think that Nemesis is still 100% mafia, but now we're got runners up in Glasse, Kenpachi, NB, and whatnot. I'm going to vote to even things up a bit, because the voting's been way too calm. Especially with that 1 hour reprieve granted: mafia didn't even bother trying to swing votes before then, which leads me to believe they're 100% sitting pretty at the moment. More importantly, it seems we haven't hit double lynch quota yet, and from my prior analysis, there's very little chance that -1 townie will lose us the game, but cutting our lynch power tomorrow by half most certainly will if we don't hit a mafia tonight. you make a good point, i'm gonna change my blank vote (keeping the ace one though)
You're also inactive. If I don't see you more active, and more useful in your actions, I'll be very cross with you.
I also don't see why you're blue, but if you ARE blue, speak up. We need less mafia controlled discussion. Seems they've been able to push us to their desired lynch target early every single day, then they just back off. (with the exception of coag, ofc).
Anyways, heading out to a friend's house. See you guys in a few.
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So if KtheZ is legit, and mafia was cool with Ace or Pandain dying, that means they were probably holding back their secret vote to swap shit up at the last minute. So time to go back and look at what's going on 70 minutes before the vote ended.
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Okay, so:
Hyper 9
Pandain 7
Ace 6
Then:
-1 hyper
+1 meapak
-1 kitaman
+1 Ace
At this point, 8/7/7 with pandain priority over Ace.
+1 Hyper
-1 Hyper
+1 KtheZ
-1 Pandain
From what I can tell this is the last substantive vote change. Its thrown by Glasse to save Ace and prioritize Pandain. Glasse then rolls into the post period by stating that he's clearly blue and that he KNOWS Ace is red.
From what I can see here, Pandain is cleared by KtheZ and Ace + Glasse seem to be both mafia. Sup. Time for us to win this game.
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On November 09 2010 10:29 Glasse wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2010 10:15 L wrote:
From what I can see here, Pandain is cleared by KtheZ and Ace + Glasse seem to be both mafia. Sup. Time for us to win this game. oh my god you are retarded why would i be mafia with ace if i want to get him lynched? that doesnt even make sense i feel like lynching you would be a better choice
Uh, you unvoted him just before the first deadline occured. Why are you even asking the question. I have the entire vote rollout RIGHT IN THE POST.
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On November 09 2010 10:50 L wrote:Show nested quote +On November 09 2010 10:29 Glasse wrote:On November 09 2010 10:15 L wrote:
From what I can see here, Pandain is cleared by KtheZ and Ace + Glasse seem to be both mafia. Sup. Time for us to win this game. oh my god you are retarded why would i be mafia with ace if i want to get him lynched? that doesnt even make sense i feel like lynching you would be a better choice Uh, you unvoted him just before the first deadline occured. Why are you even asking the question. I have the entire vote rollout RIGHT IN THE POST.
Oh wait, you're right, I completely screwed that up.
LOLOLOL THIS IS WHAT I GET FOR DOING ANALYSIS BETWEEN GAMES OF LOL.
I'll go through and look things over again.
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EPT
