here is the thing

i do not like all these people saying "we have problems if he is a vamp" or somehow implying its bad for him to go if he is a vamp

the mafia already lost 1 person. this means that, in order for mafia to win AND town to not win, somehow, over the course of the entire game, mafia has to suffer no more than four further kills. the only possible way for mafia to win is if 11 vampires are dead. as soon as five mafia go away, then neither side can win (once vamps go down 5 too) without the town also winning, provided the town's numbers stay up.

and remember if there are 61 players and 16 red die, then you have 6 living reds and the town would need 7 living greens/blues. 13 total players. we are nowhere near the point where we have 7 town players left.

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 15 2010 19:54 GMT

#1692

On October 16 2010 04:47 Nemesis wrote:
No actually town needs to kil at least 8 vampires and 8 mafia, not 4 of each.

uh yeah, if you bothered to read what i had to say you would see that i am not talking about town's win condition on its own, i am talking about the fact that mafia CANNOT win without the town winning once we kill 4 more of them and we have more than 13 total players

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 15 2010 20:09 GMT

#1695

with 11 mafia and 11 vampires, in order for mafia to win, they need to get vampires down to 0

if mafia gets vampires down to 0 with no losses, then that means 12 total red killed. in order for town to win, then, we need to kill 4 more mafia before that happens.

so what i am saying is, everyone who says that it is bad to kill another vampire should be looked at closely, because with all the blue roles and the like, what are the odds that we do not kill 4 mafia before they manage to take out 8 vampires? not to mention as the game progresses if vampires get really low then all the clues will continue to be mafia clues, and the game balances out anyway

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 15 2010 20:26 GMT

#1703

On October 16 2010 05:13 BrownBear wrote:
See, but this number 12 doesn't mean anything. You just pulled it out of your ass.

Nowhere in the OP does it say 12 scumkills = victory.

we have 1 dead mafia right now.

if all vampires die and no more mafia die, then mafia wins and 12 red are dead.

so yes, under current scenario, 12 scum kills (assuming mafia wins out from here) is a mafia victory

what i am also saying is that as soon as 5 on each side are dead, NEITHER side can win alone until town has less than 7 left. there can be a double win, but in a double win we still win

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 16 2010 23:51 GMT

#1951

i figured it out

he says conf[i]rmed killers are: pandain

i figure he fucked up in the code with "conformed" instead of confirmed, but this is what it says

i wonder how he "conformed" pandain to be a killer as a JOL, or what "killer" even means - scum? grim reaper?

i hear cryptograms are hard to decode, confirm/deny

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 16 2010 23:53 GMT

#1952

also, if you wanted to send one specific person a message, why not just send them an unencoded one to be revealed at death? it makes me think you wanted us to see that for some reason, since it really is not hard to decrypt code

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 17 2010 02:00 GMT

#2022

player above me: glasse
analysis: LOL FRENCH CANADIAN

;D

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 17 2010 06:55 GMT

#2104

i am voting lucktar for the very obvious, almost masq-like clue-to-profile similarity.

i am not defending jodo, mind you, just that i think that obvious clues > suspicion at this point.

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 17 2010 07:49 GMT

#2112

pandain was green, he was not DT

pandain was under FoS the entire game pretty much

why would a DT claim to pandain?

i mean i dont really care either way, if hes red then good for us, really. i am not so sure that believing pandain is a good move here with no actual DT proof. some red could very easily have told pandain "hey i am a DT go lynch jodo"

fyi not defending jodo per se, just questioning the logic used, cuz i dont get it

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 17 2010 20:31 GMT

#2150

On October 17 2010 16:49 annul wrote:
i am not so sure that believing pandain is a good move here with no actual DT proof. some red could very easily have told pandain "hey i am a DT go lynch jodo"

On October 17 2010 17:18 DoctorHelvetica wrote:
Jodogohoo the Grim Reaper has been modkilled.

CALLED IT

is anyone going to believe me now when i say shit? you all gotta use your brains, the logic was not there.

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 17 2010 20:44 GMT

#2151

PS, in defense of ghrur's analysis of me:

"God damnit, this is wtf. he NEVER posted a code with this, and seems to just be bullshitting."

yes he did - he posted a cryptogram and when solved, it came out to "conformed killers are: pandain"

check the thread again, it is there

and

"Wtf? This goes against what he said earlier about analyzing posts! This also goes against his vote as he NEVER voted for Masq, despite him saying that it's very obvious now. Why? Also, why would he vote for someone of Masq's clue-like-similarity when he never voted for Masq in the first place? I don't get it."

i voted for veldril for reasons i explained above, which you quoted. i was wrong =\ but the reasons were there. his profile also had a quote from fate stay night, the "unlimited blade works" invocation -- which fit a clue pretty well too. or so i thought. so while masq's clue was the most obvious, i thought veldril had a nice one too, _and_ i thought getting him out early was better.

lastly, i defend myself if people make claims that i disagree with. especially if people make claims that i believe to be lies. this isnt a red thing, this is an annul thing. green blue black or red, i defend myself against things like that.

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 17 2010 20:57 GMT

#2152

On October 18 2010 04:02 Glasse wrote:
Real quick, when i watched pandain last night it said that he left and never came back.

this makes no sense

why would he leave if he was a straight up green? he has no night power to leave with and he is not mafia/vampire to go out and kill someone with?

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 17 2010 21:40 GMT

#2154

On October 18 2010 06:28 Lucktar wrote:
Sorry for being out of the thread for a while, but... what? I'm not even sure what clues you're referring to. Are you talking about Hyperbola's stuff? I'm confus.

this:

On October 17 2010 13:34 Hyperbola wrote:
Pandain finally ducked under a brush, feeling safe. He said a prayer to himself and tried his best to be quiet. Quiet wasn't enough. There was a blindingly quick kick to his head, knocking him on his back and knocking him out cold. The small man sat on Pandain's back, driving his face deep into the mud. Pandain was brutally slain by the two, torn limb from limb. The town would find his body parts separated and left in neat rows of eight, covered in blood and mud.
[image loading]

Could be a coincidence of elements but it's worth noting nonetheless.

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 17 2010 21:57 GMT

#2156

because nobody was voting for lucktar anyway? why should i make a lone vote that got no traction?

i weighed my options between artanis and heavonearth and i chose artanis. otherwise my vote is irrelevant

also, my code was correct. in cryptograms it is self-explanatory which letters decode to what, because you can just reverse solve it and see. so, every "o" in "conformed killers are: pandain" is the same symbol in aztro's original encrypted code, every "a" is the same symbol, every "i" is the same symbol, etc. if you bother to take the time out to do this, you will see my solution is not wrong.

i would love to see an alternate solution for aztro's original code that fits as well as mine did. i do not need to post my own decoding key because it is self-evident from my solution itself.

whether aztro questions my reasoning or not, this does not change the fact my solution was correct.

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 18 2010 20:05 GMT

#2186

can you put that in the OP or in the 2nd post too (if its not there already)

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 18 2010 21:54 GMT

#2197

i hear reposting the same thing with no further analysis is not spam at all, really.

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 19 2010 01:22 GMT

#2203

HEY D00DS fyi as an aside,

/join #tlmafia

we got 5 there we'd need 5 more for some IRC mafia tonight ;D

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 19 2010 01:57 GMT

#2205

OK hi people

its time to break this game wide open

i am tired of seeing town being dumb and not working together

i am claiming jack o lantern. i am also claiming that i know at least two other confirmed blues and a couple of ideas as to who else might be blue. i am NOT a detective, but one of my confirmed blues IS.

i will not say where my bombs are, but you should probably imagine they're on reds, because i am not dumb. i will also say that every action i have taken so far in this game has been to survive to a point where i can get into a circle... or start one, as i now am doing. people ive been suspicious of, etc... may or may not be who i actually am suspicious of.

(my DT is confirmed because he checked me night 2 and found my role, PMed me with it, and as it came out of nowhere i cant believe he was rolefishing).

so this is what i want to do. i want someone to volunteer to be checked. i will have my DT check you tonight. i will then tell you what the DT sees, and this will prove to you that we have the blues we say we have in the circle. PLEASE DO NOT ASK TO BE CHECKED IF YOU ARE A STRAIGHT UP GREEN. this does not help us. if you are a blue and you want a way to confirm with other blues and start actually playing this game, then you need to get this game started and you need to PM me.

again, DO NOT tell me what specific role you have, only that you are a blue and you want to be checked.

mafia and vampires should leave us alone, since their job is to kill the other, not us.

annul

United States2841 Posts

October 19 2010 03:16 GMT

#2212

then we're fucked, lol

though i think there is a way around that too.