EPTThe town really need to come together around a voice of reason. Too bad Ace isn't in this game. If BC was town, I would be all for jumping to follow him. He is likely the Godfather if he is scum.
Did brownbear pick the roles randomly?
TL Mafia XXXI - Page 41
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
The town really need to come together around a voice of reason. Too bad Ace isn't in this game. If BC was town, I would be all for jumping to follow him. He is likely the Godfather if he is scum. Did brownbear pick the roles randomly? | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 08 2010 17:13 Bill Murray wrote: basically, we have a day to put pressure on someone. We need to start a wagon on mafia. Who are your top suspects, DoctorH? I suspect misder of being mafia I suspect Xelin and cynanmachae of being red or blue, I also suspect opz is a red or blue role although I don't feel comfortable deciding which. I plan on doing a lot more analysis tomorrow, it's quite late. That's why I particularly want to hear your case about cynanmachae | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 08 2010 17:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I suspect misder of being mafia I suspect Xelin and cynanmachae of being red or blue, I also suspect opz is a red or blue role although I don't feel comfortable deciding which. I plan on doing a lot more analysis tomorrow, it's quite late. That's why I particularly want to hear your case about cynanmachae if you want to put pressure on nukethebunnys I'm ok with that. he hasn't posted much and I've seen his name come up a few times but I haven't taken the time to really analyze his posts yet another name thats on my radar is SINiquity. he has hardly posted but he just now pops in with a huge post in response to your arguments that made no sense and had a 100% wrong conclusion. came off as a weak attempt to cause distraction. by then we had moved on from what you were saying and were putting pressure on misder and xelin and he comes back to revisit it while also harshly misinterpreting what you were saying and your conclusions what do you think of that? | ||
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XeliN
United Kingdom1755 Posts
On October 08 2010 17:08 DoctorHelvetica wrote: how do they have any merit when you couldn't possibly trap anyone with them considering both terms were used in role PM's? Well for example some, such as I, will be able to form an opinion of Bill alignment. Also earlier in the thread when put under pressure by Bill some people seem people seemed very reluctant and almost dodging the issue when asked. Such a reaction would certainly be consistent with a mafia player being put under pressure to pretend to be a role they are not but try not to get caught in a lie. it's mainly useful for determining towns people as the reaction given by some makes it quite likely they are Town. I agree with you though using it as evidence of people being trapped definitively doesn't work due to the fact we do not know how all of the PM's were phrased. | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 08 2010 17:19 XeliN wrote: Well for example some, such as I, will be able to form an opinion of Bill alignment. Also earlier in the thread when put under pressure by Bill some people seem people seemed very reluctant and almost dodging the issue when asked. Such a reaction would certainly be consistent with a mafia player being put under pressure to pretend to be a role they are not but try not to get caught in a lie. it's mainly useful for determining towns people as the reaction given by some makes it quite likely they are Town. I agree with you though using it as evidence of people being trapped definitively doesn't work due to the fact we do not know how all of the PM's were phrased. I can get behind this. I think Bill is probably green and this is part of the reason I dislike the push earlier in this thread to force mafia to kill him or we lynch him. I really doubt he's mafia or village idiot in fact if anyone is village idiot it's probably crisis_ On October 07 2010 14:54 Crisis_ wrote: So about my "rock and hard place" comment, I was talking about how I was 2nd on the votelist, and I didn't have much of a choice, otherwise I would have been lynched. Why would I want to die on day 1?... Oh and if you don't believe I'm not red, you can go ahead and lynch me to find out. Sheesh. he's been playing quite suspiciously and it all seems a little bit hammed up to me. forced if you will. I'm not gonna call him out as 100% VI but I don't think we should lynch him. in fact he is a good candidate for a rolecheck | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
I feel the exact way on OpZ. He is too valuable to lose as a power role. Medics should be protecting either you or him, honestly, from my perspective. CynanMachae needs pressured from somewhere to get him to talk, or we should lynch him. I don't really have a case on him, it's more intuition or gut. I could go back and read some games where he was mafia, but like you said it's quite late. Hopefully someone can remind me to do this tomorrow. I feel like he is fairly lurky as blue, and can be a hindrance in LyLo. Recently I have won for the town in a situation like that, where the game is getting down to the nitty gritty. It is also very, very easy to pick up on my play as mafia, because I don't usually make good posts like this. I would also like to hear what he has to say, and trust me, he isn't going to say anything until we get some votes on him. On October 06 2010 10:22 CynanMachae wrote: Wow, am I really leading in votes so far? Lynching me would really be a bad idea. I agree with all of you that Padain's posting is a bit weird on defending me, since he can't know that I'm not mafia from my 2 posts and saying I'm playing the same as usual is really not much cause I don't think I've even changed my playstyle much in games were I was mafia, and these two posts really don't say anything right now. So, since Padain can't know I'm not mafia (no detective play yet), the only way that he can be sure that I'm town is if he's mafia himself. He's probably hoping I do get lynched and can play the "told you so" card then. Not that I think it's a wise decision for a mafia but else I don't see why he would be defending me. The only reason I would see is if he believed we should lynch people that are more inactive, but he didn't seem to suggest that. I dislike this post. He is a bit lurkier than this as blue. He is also playing into his defender trying to distance himself from a potential defense pandain was trying to give of him. This, with pandain pushing for double lynch (why would we vote double lynch at this point?), has me suspicious of them. CynanMachae, other than this and one other post, has been posting useless one liners I would be very ok with lynching him | ||
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XeliN
United Kingdom1755 Posts
On October 08 2010 17:14 DoctorHelvetica wrote: I suspect Xelin and cynanmachae of being red or blue, For what reasons do you think I am Red or Blue. Outline your thought process behind the suspicion. | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
would like to see pandain lynched and if he's red we lynch CM | ||
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 08 2010 17:23 XeliN wrote: Moving on however, For what reasons do you think I am Red or Blue. Outline your thought process behind the suspicion. because of what BB said when you weren't modkilled you also said something along the lines that you were "waiting on a piece of information" and that struck me as a possible reference to a DT rolecheck. If you could clarify what you meant by that that would be great. On October 08 2010 05:22 XeliN wrote: I'll make a concise post addressing all of you wonderful people questioning me in a little bit, currently I am waiting on a piece of information. To briefly outline a few things however. I believe Bill to be 100% Green Town I am suspicious of the assertion that both Brown and Artanis sent out role PM's, my inclination is to think only Brown did My vote on Bloody was initially a more sincere one, now it is a placeholder whilst I evaluate, if it makes any of you feel more comfortable I'll change it to myself Divinek likes to say fuck | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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XeliN
United Kingdom1755 Posts
At the time I found it quite suspicious and suspected it might have been a mafia invention in order to get out of what might have been viewed as an unfair position, I was apparently wrong and both did send out the PM's. Obviously back when I wrote that post if I had been told that Artanis did not send out PM's i'd of had quite alot to say... | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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DoctorHelvetica
United States15034 Posts
On October 08 2010 17:39 Bill Murray wrote: it could be a lie to save the mafia i could be a 10 year old asian girl lets not go down this path please | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
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XeliN
United Kingdom1755 Posts
On October 08 2010 17:42 DoctorHelvetica wrote: i could be a 10 year old asian girl And I could be your friends older brother, and you've come round but only I'm in and your wearing... Mafia arn't the only type of predator that is fun to roleplay! | ||
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Bill Murray
United States9292 Posts
my head | ||
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kingjames01
Canada1603 Posts
First off, I want to remind everyone to RELAX! It is totally in our best interest to be calm, methodical and analytical. It's clear to me that the first day has really rattled people and the more we add to it, the more chances mafia has to manipulate us. Especially if they can get people to bandwagon a non-red and then hide in the confusion. At this moment, since I only know what I am, I suspect everyone. I think this is my best strategy to survive long enough to make good decisions. Anyway, I'd like to sum up the voting from the first day and what information I can glean out of it. Please add to, refute, expand or whatever to this discussion: - The first day we lynched the Village Idiot, Protactinium. What can we learn? - There were 5 mafia and 20 non-mafia to begin the game - Protactinium was the Village Idiot and thus non-mafia - Mafia knew that he was non-mafia but not which role and thus a candidate to vote for the lynch - 6 votes went to Protactinium so at most 5 votes came from the mafia Now, I'd like to suggest that we look really closely at Crisis_, CynanMachae, ghrur and infinitestory. I will show why in the following discussion. To further my case I present the order of voting: + Show Spoiler + Bill Murray October 05 2010 12:12. ##vote: protactinium Cumulative Votes: (24:48 remaining) Protactinium 1 ~OpZ~ October 05 2010 12:51. ##Vote Crisis_ Cumulative Votes: (24:09 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Amber[LighT] October 05 2010 22:29. ##vote: Bill Murray Cumulative Votes: (14:31 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Bill Murray - 1 BrownBear October 06 2010 01:33. Vote count has been updated. 11.5 hours remaining in this day cycle. Divinek October 06 2010 01:59. ##vote cynanmachine Cumulative Votes: (11:01 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 1 NukeTheBunnys October 06 2010 02:08. ##vote cynanmachine Cumulative Votes: (10:52 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 SouthRawrea October 06 2010 05:07. ##vote Divinek Cumulative Votes: (7:53 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 Pandain October 06 2010 05:31. ##Vote Xelin Cumulative Votes: (7:29 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 1 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 XeliN - 1 kingjames01 October 06 2010 05:34. ##Vote Crisis_ Cumulative Votes: (7:26 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 2 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 XeliN - 1 meeple October 06 2010 05:42. ##Vote Cynanmachae Cumulative Votes: (7:18 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 2 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 XeliN - 1 drag_ October 06 2010 05:57. ##Vote: kingjames01 Cumulative Votes: (7:03 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 2 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 XeliN - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Pandain October 06 2010 05:57. ##Unvote (XeliN) ##Vote Infunidibulum Cumulative Votes: (7:03 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 2 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 DoctorHelvetica October 06 2010 06:00. ##Vote JeeJee Cumulative Votes: (7:00 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 2 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 JeeJee - 1 DoctorHelvetica October 06 2010 09:08. I'm changing my vote: (##Unvote JeeJee) ##Vote Crisis_ Cumulative Votes: (3:52 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 Misder October 06 2010 09:20. ##Vote ~Opz~ Cumulative Votes: (3:40 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Bill Murray October 06 2010 09:35. ##confirm vote: protactinium (No change) Cumulative Votes: (3:25 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 CynanMachae October 06 2010 10:18. ##Vote Padain Cumulative Votes: (2:42 remaining) Protactinium - 1 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 ghrur October 06 2010 10:36. ##vote protactinium Cumulative Votes: (2:24 remaining) Protactinium - 2 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 infinitestory October 06 2010 10:49. ##vote proactinium Cumulative Votes: (2:11 remaining) Protactinium - 3 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 Protactinium October 06 2010 10:59. ##Vote: XeliN Cumulative Votes: (2:01 remaining) Protactinium - 3 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 XeliN - 1 BrownBear October 06 2010 11:04. Vote Count Updated. 2 hours to go. Lot of you haven't voted yet. cSc October 06 2010 11:07. ##vote bumatlarge Cumulative Votes: (1:53 remaining) Protactinium - 3 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 XeliN - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SiNiquity October 06 2010 11:14. ##vote protactinium Cumulative Votes: (1:46 remaining) Protactinium - 4 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 XeliN - 1 bumatlarge - 1 Pandain October 06 2010 11:25. ##Unvote (XeliN) (##)Vote Sinquity Cumulative Votes: (1:35 remaining) Protactinium - 4 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 3 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 BrownBear October 06 2010 11:25. VOTE UPDATED. YOU HAVE ONE HOUR NukeTheBunnys October 06 2010 12:07. changing vote (##Unvote CynanMachae) ##vote Protactinium Cumulative Votes: (0:53 remaining) Protactinium - 5 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 Infundibulum October 06 2010 12:11. ##vote ghrur Cumulative Votes: (0:49 remaining) Protactinium - 5 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 ghrur - 1 Crisis_ October 06 2010 12:16. ##Vote Protactinium Cumulative Votes: (0:44 remaining) Protactinium - 6 Crisis_ - 3 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 ghrur - 1 Protactinium October 06 2010 12:29. ##Vote: Crisis_ Cumulative Votes: (0:31 remaining) Protactinium - 6 Crisis_ - 4 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 ghrur - 1 infinitestory October 06 2010 12:34. ##Unvote (Protactinium) ##Vote: JeeJee Cumulative Votes: (0:26 remaining) Protactinium - 5 Crisis_ - 4 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 ghrur - 1 JeeJee - 1 BrownBear October 06 2010 12:40. Votes updated for the last time before the end of the day. If you haven't voted yet, you need to do so IMMEDIATELY or risk modkill. bumatlarge October 06 2010 12:57. ##vote protactinium Cumulative Votes: (0:03 remaining) Protactinium - 6 Crisis_ - 4 Bill Murray - 1 CynanMachae - 2 Divinek - 1 kingjames01 - 1 Infundibulum - 1 ~OpZ~ - 1 Pandain - 1 bumatlarge - 1 SINiquity - 1 ghrur - 1 JeeJee - 1 BrownBear October 06 2010 13:00. DAY HAS ENDED. Protactinium is to be lynched. Night post coming soon. What I have noticed while summarizing this information: - Protactinium only had 1 vote until less than 3 hours remaining - Bill Murray voted first for Protactinium with almost 25 hours remaining - When the votes started coming in for Protactinium, two players were at-risk of being lynched: Crisis_ and CynanMachae with 3 votes each - CynanMachae had received his 3rd vote first thus placing him on the chopping block according to the rule clarified by Artanis[Xp] mid-game After this point, the order of voting was: - CynanMachae ##Vote Padain (2:42 remaining) Comment: You were in the lead and headed to the gallows. With only 2:42 left before nightfall, why did you not vote for Crisis_ so that you were not in the lead??? Is it possible that you DON'T want Crisis_ to be lynched? - ghrur ##vote protactinium (2:24 remaining) - infinitestory ##vote proactinium (2:11 remaining) Comment: Twenty minutes apart, two votes come in to make 3 players tied in votes. Interesting. Coincidence or not? I will continue and see if a pattern emerges. Protactinium ##Vote: XeliN (2:01 remaining) Comment: Protactinium has to opportunity to push either Crisis_ or CynanMachae further to the front of the line but declines. We understand this action afterwards when it is revealed that Protactinium is indeed the Village Idiot. (Well played, you cunning bastard.) cSc ##vote bumatlarge (1:53 remaining) Comment: Voted for a Green (which we only find out the next day) SiNiquity ##vote protactinium (1:46 remaining) Comment: New leader in the votes Pandain ##Unvote (XeliN) (##)Vote Sinquity (1:35 remaining) NukeTheBunnys changing vote (##Unvote CynanMachae) ##vote Protactinium (0:53 remaining) Comment: NukeTheBunnys removes CynanMachae out of the running to be lynched and moves Protactinium ahead of Crisis_. Now, even if Crisis_ receives an extra vote, Protactinium will still be lynched since he reached 4 votes first. This seems to be in line with CynanMachae's earlier play. Infundibulum ##vote ghrur (0:49 remaining) Comment: Infundibulum turns out to be a Green and so there is no malice in this vote. Crisis_ ##Vote Protactinium (0:44 remaining) Comment: This vote could be made to save himself even though he is behind at this point. Again, this seems to be along the same thought process as CynanMachae's earlier vote. Protactinium ##Vote: Crisis_ (0:31 remaining) Comment: It seems as though Protactinium got away with voting twice. infinitestory ##Unvote (Protactinium) ##Vote: JeeJee (0:26 remaining) Comment: If I were to analyze this vote in terms of what has been written above, then it seems now that Protactinium is ahead in the voting and neither CynanMachae nor Crisis_ are at risk, infinitestory retracts his earlier vote and votes for someone who can not be lynched with only 1 vote. Why waste your vote with less than half an hour left? Is this coincidence or is this a purposeful move to cover your earlier vote? bumatlarge ##vote protactinium (0:03 remaining) Comment: bumatlarge turns out to be a Green and so there is no malice in this vote. I haven't had time to fully go through the thread to find more connections between the suspicious voters yet so I'm asking for help. If anyone finds clues linking these players, post them. We don't have much time left in this day. If we can double-lynch 2 Reds before the night they will only have 1 kill. Good luck to us all. =) Finally, I urge again for everyone to not vote in the heat of the moment but to apply reasoning so that your vote is not wasted. | ||
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