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On August 26 2010 05:20 bumatlarge wrote:
I am correct!..
Night is 48 hours from 10pm yesterday? Alrighty, hopefully we get somewhere. In south's defense, trying to get traitor is more policy FoS, but manning up and saying whats whats for towns benefit kinda reverses it. I dont think pandains accusations hold any water, but it seems an honest attempt to clarify the situation. Plus you can kinda see that south wants to stray from the town ideas very visibly, which would be kinda stpid as red/sk, but I think he planned on getting traitor when draft came out. So townie points for the roar from the south!
More liek the rawr from south.. heh
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Also I'd just like to say: Sorry Hesmyrr I've got nothing against you. I just did what I felt needed to be done. Also kinda irritated that I didn't get traitor D:< Of course anyone in the top 5 could've done it with just a whim but I honestly felt like there was more reason... available to you.
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On August 26 2010 05:41 Fishball wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2010 04:21 Radfield wrote:On August 26 2010 04:20 Fishball wrote:
Funny Traitor wannabe's, lol.
First off, Hesmyrr, we already know that rastaban would choose the CV and should be the CV now. Why would you pick CV in the first place? I don't really get it.
As for SouthRawrea, there is always a possibility that he is lying. The only logical motive I could think of if he is either Mafia/SK, is that he is wants to plant a seed of doubt in our top 5 draft picks. However, these roles, if done according to plan, are mainly Mafia aligned roles. Offing these roles doesn't exactly impact town much at all. However if the town pushes hard and goes through that list, then it could work as a decoy and waste our lynches/CV kills. Long shot? Yes. Likeliness? 33% I'd say.
Excluding SR himself, and rastaban who should be the CV. These are the people remaining on the list.
2. chaoser
3. LSB
4. Hesmyrr
5. zeks
If we are indeed looking to cast a vote among these people, before we make a decision, I suggest everyone should ask themselves a few questions.
- Is SR's claim likely to be true?
- If yes, is Hesymrr likely to be the Traitor?
- If no, who else could likely be the Traitor?
Right now, I'm inclined to believe SR's claim, but I'm not entirely sure who could be the Traitor. Although I'm still wanting to hear the reasoning from Hesymrr, why he would pick CV when it was a general consensus that our #1 draft pick should pick it. Did you read the plan? Will reply when I get home (in about 4-5 hours). Bust at work right now.
He has time to write all that but not say yes or no? I think the answer we're looking at is not yet.
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I just realized that JOAT is extremely powerful in that it can make a town list with one other person if the person that they talk to is an investigative role. Oh wow just realized another thing. Mind BLOWN. They can have a secret code between them that they use in thread to provide updates to each other.
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Look.. all we've got on the line at the moment are 2 green townies at most. I'm not asking anyone to continue this if I'm wrong but just to keep it in mind after I flip green if it comes to that. Clearly the best lynch today as opposed to random lynch. We can factor inactivity into our votes later when the game actually progresses a bit. The problem with games in which people lynch inactives day 1 is that just a single day isn't a necessarily the best measure of activity in general. Waiting for day 2 to start looking at peoples' activity levels is a much better idea. My proposal has us stray from that method and has a better chance of hitting a future red even IF i'm wrong about Hesmyrr. Gogo lynch lol. Btw if anyone has any better suggestions to a better target within the top 5, please be my guest. If what you're saying makes sense then I'll gladly switch opinions and urge the town to do the same.
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No defenses for Hesmyrr? I was kind hoping to have a balanced discussion in case I overlooked anything crucial. Well I've said everything I needed/wanted to say so hopefully I didn't miss anything and I'm right.
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I thought I revealed second number? Anyhow it's 9 if I didn't mention it.
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Well fuck... I was wrong. Lynch me or something tmmrw cuz that was fucked. Aghh so mad that it didn't work out :/ as I wanted it to.
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Only way to prove I was telling the truth.
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Well if town really wants to take a leap of faith for me, we should find the next candidate for a traitor and off me in the night.
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What's with all the confusion about the type of vanilla? Night post said it was Vanilla townie and the colour of the word was green?
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On August 28 2010 23:47 citi.zen wrote:
The only thing I can think of that would motivate zeks to come forward if he is traitor is fear he was watched or the mafia was tracked to him. Seems unlikely and at any rate confirmable with an alignment check, so risky to lie and draw attention to himself. So as I said above, I think it likely SR lied or a top 3 pick lied.
This is real weak defense you're putting forward. The only reason you can think of? Of course there is pressure on him! There's slight pressure on everyone in the top 6 and zeks's name has come up as the next likely candidate or I'm lying. You and I very well know that alignment checks mean nothing until we know the sanity of the cop. Not to mention the cop has to out themselves which would be a foolish idea early on. Even a role cop would get just vanilla. Even if I'm not in much of a situation to be trusted ENTIRELY, for future purposes, FOS for mafia-like quick, pointless defense.
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EBWOP
Of course my post about Citi.zen was just being nitpicky. In any case, I was advocating my own lynch as a way to stay true to the promises I made in day 1. I thought it was what you guys wanted :/. You guys can throw WIFOM at me all day but let two things be known clear: 1) I am okay with my own lynch. 2) I'll still be scum searching even if I am being lynched.
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I'm back and we seem to have gotten ALOT of information.
On August 29 2010 05:11 zeks wrote:
Or Subversion also picked a defensive role and overlapped with me.
On August 29 2010 05:39 zeks wrote:
Fine. I'm role cop.
First of all. What?
2) If Subversion was unable to attain a role due to overlap, then that means he is neither aligned with Chaoser or LSB as he would not choose a role that they had. It is then safe to assume that Chaoser+LSB may be SK with powerful role, traitor town or town with the role they are supposed to have. The most likely are the latter two. We can ALMOST determine however that they did not start as mafia. (read more for more details)
3). It is not entirely possible to rule out mafia having went for the top 3 roles. It is strange however that they went to try for the top 3 with one of their members who had a very LOW number. The chances of a player at 7 and a player at 20 getting the Compulsive Vig would be roughly equal as no one other than the primary role pickers and Hesmyrr would pick that. I am inclined to believe that Subversion wouldn't try it unless:
On August 25 2010 12:08 Subversion wrote:
Lol, haven't followed any plan.
Only had 20 mins to pick a role soooooo...
Didn't do a whole lot of reading, lol.
A key piece of evidence. He had but 20 minutes to try and read over the rules, roles, players and send in a PM on time. He also says he hadn't read much. With a draft number of 7 and not much knowledge of the town's plan he could very well want to pick one of the 3 top roles. Thus we can safely rule out that Subversion had done any deep planning for his role pick. If you were mafia and had a chance at picking a role without any prior knowledge to what anyone else was picking what would you pick? Of course a typical pro-mafia role. I don't know about you guys but it took me half an hour to properly understand draft rule. He wasn't in PYP Mafia 1 either.
I now find it hard to believe that Subversion picked role cop.
As well, this slightly changes the idea I had pointed out in #2 as only Chaoser was active at the time of Subversion's swap into the game which means that if LSB was mafia he wouldn't have much of a chance to send a PM to Subversion. This also make it easier to believe that Radfield, Pandain and Citi.zen are town-aligned.
TL;DR Subversion picked without thinking, probably didn't pick rolecop. Doesn't clear Zeks.
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I feel like I missed something though so please analyze for flaws and perhaps to remind me of what I might've forgotten. God I hate when that happens D:.
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On August 29 2010 06:36 ~OpZ~ wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 06:33 ~OpZ~ wrote:On August 29 2010 06:20 LSB wrote:On August 29 2010 06:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Zeks, you're in a bad position. There is one way to prove you're role cop and tell us Fishball's role...That would be the only way I see you living. Which even then...It's kind of slim. As I've said, Role Cop isn't exactly the most powerful role in the world, in my mind.
Anyway, I see some problems with everything, and you can't be town aligned. We know he's rolecop, I was the one to prove it. The problem is if he is town aligned. Zeks, if you are town aligned, please do not disclose Fishball's Role. Fishball could be thinking of a strategy, and it is always bad for Mafia to know more blue roles than necessary. How did you prove it? You picked before him. This hinges on Subversion of picking RoleCop, not PoD/BadSanta/CompVig...If one of those roles picked traitor, then he he could of picked any of those, albeit be wrong. Nevermind. I understand. You would of been on the same team, how would you two of picked the same roles....Shit...I need to think about this a little more. I still feel Zeks is something like SK.
Please elaborate. I was reading this and my thought pattern was all jumbled from my earlier post. I would like to know how he's proven.
Also. 4 mafia visited Zeks either that or 4 other roles. I find it hard to believe that 4 different investigative roles visited Zeks without a single mafia doing so. If it was only mafia visiting and what he's saying about being saved is true, there would be 5 visitors. So if 4 others really did visit him, 1 doctor, 2 of this (tracker, alignment cop, bullet bill), SK and 1 watcher(doesn't count in the original 4) as I find it hard to believe even JOAT would visit him. Poor play/luck on the part of power roles if this is true. Either that or Compulsive Vig shot him but then rastaban would claim that so Zek's claim would be true correct? Thus CV did not shoot. He couldn't anyways. It was night 1. We can then conclude that Zeks was either converted or never visited by mafia.
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On August 29 2010 06:44 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 06:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
TL;DR Subversion picked without thinking, probably didn't pick rolecop. Doesn't clear Zeks. Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 05:08 LSB wrote:
Subversion is Mafia, the mafia would probably PM him, telling him to take Rolecop. Their not going to let some random dude go "LOL! I don't care about this game".
So that means the Rolecop is above Subversion
LSB he had 20 minutes to pick. Read the entire post. He said he picked without a plan.
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On August 29 2010 06:47 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 06:46 SouthRawrea wrote:On August 29 2010 06:44 LSB wrote:On August 29 2010 06:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
TL;DR Subversion picked without thinking, probably didn't pick rolecop. Doesn't clear Zeks. On August 29 2010 05:08 LSB wrote:
Subversion is Mafia, the mafia would probably PM him, telling him to take Rolecop. Their not going to let some random dude go "LOL! I don't care about this game".
So that means the Rolecop is above Subversion
LSB he had 20 minutes to pick. Read the entire post. He said he picked without a plan. Oh of course that explains everything! </sarcasm> Dude, he's mafia. Mafia lies
Dude even if he had all the time since he joined he had 2 hours. He was a last minute replacement. He didn't even think he would be able to join until Ace gave him the thumbs up right before day 1.
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On August 29 2010 07:03 JeeJee wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 06:45 SouthRawrea wrote:On August 29 2010 06:36 ~OpZ~ wrote:On August 29 2010 06:33 ~OpZ~ wrote:On August 29 2010 06:20 LSB wrote:On August 29 2010 06:15 ~OpZ~ wrote:
Zeks, you're in a bad position. There is one way to prove you're role cop and tell us Fishball's role...That would be the only way I see you living. Which even then...It's kind of slim. As I've said, Role Cop isn't exactly the most powerful role in the world, in my mind.
Anyway, I see some problems with everything, and you can't be town aligned. We know he's rolecop, I was the one to prove it. The problem is if he is town aligned. Zeks, if you are town aligned, please do not disclose Fishball's Role. Fishball could be thinking of a strategy, and it is always bad for Mafia to know more blue roles than necessary. How did you prove it? You picked before him. This hinges on Subversion of picking RoleCop, not PoD/BadSanta/CompVig...If one of those roles picked traitor, then he he could of picked any of those, albeit be wrong. Nevermind. I understand. You would of been on the same team, how would you two of picked the same roles....Shit...I need to think about this a little more. I still feel Zeks is something like SK. Please elaborate. I was reading this and my thought pattern was all jumbled from my earlier post. I would like to know how he's proven. Also. 4 mafia visited Zeks either that or 4 other roles. I find it hard to believe that 4 different investigative roles visited Zeks without a single mafia doing so. If it was only mafia visiting and what he's saying about being saved is true, there would be 5 visitors. So if 4 others really did visit him, 1 doctor, 2 of this (tracker, alignment cop, bullet bill), SK and 1 watcher(doesn't count in the original 4) as I find it hard to believe even JOAT would visit him. Poor play/luck on the part of power roles if this is true. Either that or Compulsive Vig shot him but then rastaban would claim that so Zek's claim would be true correct? Thus CV did not shoot. He couldn't anyways. It was night 1. We can then conclude that Zeks was either converted or never visited by mafia. this post makes no sense
4 people visited Zeks. Any mafia actions show as all mafia visiting to the watcher. (Including ones that die by day) Thus if mafia visited Zeks, then no townies other than the watcher visited Zeks correct? Simple. However, Zeks said he was shot and protected. He couldn't have been shot by Vig as they can't shoot. He claims he was protected by the doctor. If he was protected by the doctor and shot by the mafia, the watcher would've seen 5 people visiting Zeks which is NOT the case. Thus it was either a combination of SK and town roles that visited Zeks or only mafia. The fact that Zeks is still alive means that he was either CONVERTED by mafia or was never visited by them. That better?
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On August 29 2010 06:59 LSB wrote:Show nested quote +On August 29 2010 06:53 SouthRawrea wrote:On August 29 2010 06:47 LSB wrote:On August 29 2010 06:46 SouthRawrea wrote:On August 29 2010 06:44 LSB wrote:On August 29 2010 06:32 SouthRawrea wrote:
TL;DR Subversion picked without thinking, probably didn't pick rolecop. Doesn't clear Zeks. On August 29 2010 05:08 LSB wrote:
Subversion is Mafia, the mafia would probably PM him, telling him to take Rolecop. Their not going to let some random dude go "LOL! I don't care about this game".
So that means the Rolecop is above Subversion
LSB he had 20 minutes to pick. Read the entire post. He said he picked without a plan. Oh of course that explains everything! </sarcasm> Dude, he's mafia. Mafia lies Dude even if he had all the time since he joined he had 2 hours. He was a last minute replacement. He didn't even think he would be able to join until Ace gave him the thumbs up right before day 1. To give you perspective on how much can happen in 2 hours. 2 hours ago, I figured out that Zeks was Rolecop SK
2 hours Maximum though and we shall see about that claim. Realistically he was on for about 1/4 of that time on this particular thread as he was inactive for much of the game anyways. 30 mins is maybe just enough time to be able to go through the rules, roles, plan and all the posts in the game.
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EPT
