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Infundibulum
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On July 31 2010 10:08 BrownBear wrote: Everyone as a Village Idiot! so the same thing as every other game? | ||
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![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/0/0a/Prof._Farnsworth.jpg/180px-Prof._Farnsworth.jpg) | ||
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Bill Murray's roleclaim was horrible, since there are concealed counts. In fact, it is not only stupid but it is so entirely transparently stupid that I'm sure BM knew it was bad when he posted it. So why did he post it then? Because mafia love to shoot down stupid townie plans, since it makes them appear pro-town. The difficulty is that good town players will also shoot down those same plans, since they want to win the game and all that. Right now anyone voting for BM is either jumping the gun or behaving suspiciously. | ||
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though i think i played a game with him previously and he did the same exact thing, more or less. i'm pretty sure he was town then. | ||
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On August 07 2010 05:05 SouthRawrea wrote: I keep deleting what I type lol because I think what if Pyrrhusloxia is really a ninja, we should get him lynched so our future Town-sided ninja doesn't waste a kill. Then I think oh shit what if he's a veteran trying to get cleared for tomorrow. Then I think what if he's a red role. Then I read the day post and wonder. WTF is a bus driver ninja and does it count in the number of ninjas? If it does and Pyrr's leak was real, he should be removed from the game which he is not. So... he's lying or the bus driver ninja doesn't count/ isn't real. Time for PMing questions to flamewheel. nah, lynching a Ninja is a waste of a lynch. The other Ninjas are going to want to throw their chopsticks at him anyway since that's how they win. Might as well let them do it since there's no guarantee we're gonna get a town-Ninja. | ||
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I stand by my earlier post about BM. Now I haven't had a lot of time to read the thread carefully but I'm starting to like the refined version of the watcher / tracker plan. The only way for mafia to safely mess with it is Framer / Roleblocker and following false claims. The other issues is that role counts are hidden. For example if there is no tracker, but the framer visits the Target and claims Tracker to the Watcher then he gets off in the clear. However the plan still provides the Watcher with a blue-count estimate, minus any blue roles that won't visit the target (Hatter, Batman, Bus Driver) | ||
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On August 08 2010 08:50 Divinek wrote:even though roffles straight up said he was gonna be less active where did he say that? that kinda changes how i think about his post now | ||
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On August 09 2010 00:04 LSB wrote: I wouldn't recommend it. My plan relys on complete town cohesion. Every single blue role must participate, or else it fails. The problem is, people have been accusing each other distracting from forming a plan. Certainly someone in there is doing this deliberatively, in order for us to win, we have to work together and random accusations distracts us. Just proceed as normal. I'll try to push my plan tomorrow People aren't gonna behave any differently come tomorrow if past games are any indication. I think if we just agree on a way to RNG pick a person and push the plan through, most everyone will cooperate. The problem is though that every blue can't participate (for example, vigi, bus driver, mad hatter probably don't want to visit the Target), unless you meant every blue besides those roles? And really if you're dead set on doing the plan you're gonna run the risk of a rogue or inactive blue no matter what so you'd have to proceed in spite of those risks. | ||
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On August 09 2010 06:23 Bill Murray wrote: all i'm saying is that xelin might be innocent, even if he comes up red, depending on how many people the watcher saw visit him in the night. I think it's pretty much a given that mafia will frame Xelin, in order to mess with the blue count and make it so Xelin is not confirmed. If Xelin comes up anything other than red he's gotta be the GF, is how i'm seeing it. | ||
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On August 09 2010 07:15 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: People just have to not be stupid and claim too early until things are confirmed. Maybe that is asking too much, though. Yeah i think any plan has to have a built in resiliency to town stupidity. Of course here we face the obstacles of people being too open in PM Land or an inactive watcher. The former is obviously more dangerous. Say the plan goes through, i think this is the scenario we face: Watcher gets a list of names. At least one of these names is mafia (framer, roleblocker). The rest are blues. Now maybe the mafia take a gambit and decide not to visit Xelin at all under the pretense that we assume they actually did visit him. And that could fuck with us. But I think framer will visit Xelin for sure in order to make it so the DT doesn't know Xelins role. | ||
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am i thinking about this the right way? i can't be sure | ||
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i guess at this point it's kinda useless to further speculate and we have to wait and see what happens. | ||
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On August 09 2010 14:11 Foolishness wrote: Infundibulum: He's less active than his normal style. His current posting reminds me of Incognito's 2 mafia family game (he was mafia). He hasn't contributed anything. Yeah, I'm changing it up this game. Last game I posted a lot and got dragged into arguments and lines of thinking that ultimately didn't help the town and ended up being frustrated with myself. Since I have less time right now anyway, i'm taking a more laid back approach to this game and trying to think more analytically than emotionally. I'm sure you're not the only one to have noticed. That said I did some thinking and depending on what the tracker found, Xelin could be a confirmed innocent. Essentially, Xelin being framed to appear red doesn't matter - if Xelin is mafia and was tracked, the tracker will know that Xelin visited someone on today's kill list and ergo that he is mafia. If Xelin didn't visit anybody, then he's not mafia even if he was framed. So I don't think we need to worry about lynching Xelin. Exceptions: Xelin is Principal or Ninja, in such cases my previous logic does not apply since those roles can't be tracked. So basically this actually works out pretty well in that we have only 2 townies dead and 2 quasi-confirmed townies in Xelin and Foolishness. | ||
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for one i let myself get into arguments with you | ||
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why you guys believe anything that guy types is beyond me. | ||
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On August 09 2010 15:00 Foolishness wrote: My quote tags were being stupid, just wanted to repost that. why quote when you can spam image macros? ![[image loading]](http://www.youchewpoop.com/wiki/images/7/70/Cool_story_bro.jpg) | ||
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On August 09 2010 15:14 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Actually that would suck because it would mean another blue ignored the plan. Xelin is 0% confirmed because we have someone claiming tracker who claims to have tracked VayeshMoru instead of Xelin. Well, i guess unless someone else comes to claim tracker we have to take Chez's word for it :\ | ||
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The problem is that Chez said he Tracked you though> | ||
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And why would Chez make the assumption that there is more than one Tracker and use his Night Action on you instead of following the plan? + Show Spoiler + because he's Chez and he is inscrutable :p Still, you do have a point - though it all depends on how Flamewheel decided to set up the game. There are 8 possible blue roles. Compare to BM's last game with the same # of players and same # of people on the mafia side. That game had 8 blues total. Now this game is rather different - no suicide bomber; presence of Ninjas. Now my guess is that there's probably 2-3 Ninjas, though i can't reasonably see more than 4 being reasonable. To account for these sort of non-town players (since they effectively lower the number of town the mafia need to kill to win, unless I misread the rules) and the possibility of roleblocker, there are probably 1-2 extra blue roles. So my estimate for a total blue count would be 10 players. This allows for extras of 1-2 blue types or possibly more depending on whether all possible roles are present. I'd say we probably have two Boy Scouts, two Batmen, and then probably something like either two Conan's or two of Watcher or Tracker. With too many 'search' type roles the town becomes OP in the sort of circle getting set up right now and I'm sure FW had this in consideration without any suicide bomber in the game. Anyway, right now based on Xelin's post it seems like the Watcher is MIA? So either the Watcher is not active (hopefully he comes back) or is not in the game. Which to me is rather more troubling than the possibility of 2 Trackers. | ||
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On August 10 2010 06:12 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: As far as I can tell Xelin is in no way confirmed since we have no evidence he was either watched OR tracked, not to mention the plan was, I thought, to confirm the watcher and not Xelin. Right, but he already claims to have a town circle and has mentioned a method of confirming himself. This could just be to convince people to claim to him (other people already did it so it must be safe!), or it could very well be true seeing as how people here have a history of being far too open with PM's. Either way if his self confirmation is a false then somebody in the circle will have to step up and call it out, right? However if this self confirmation method hinges on the apparently absent watcher, then i'm not sure what happens. | ||
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On August 10 2010 06:46 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: We figure out that Foolishness is GF because he vociferously defended BM despite his idiocy. I defended BM, can I be the Principal too? | ||
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On August 10 2010 07:11 Bill Murray wrote: from what ive seen i dont know if we even have a medic we might just have bus drivers 10 bus drivers gogogo | ||
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On August 10 2010 16:07 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Fanning the flames for the sake of fanning the flames is not productive. I know BC does not agree with my at all on my suspect list; he is much more suspicious of those doing this sort of behavior. I hope I am right. Divinek has been posting that way for almost the entire game. I'm starting to wonder when he will have something useful to say. | ||
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On August 11 2010 05:51 Bill Murray wrote: i'm not even in any circle, believe it or not. If BrownBear didn't want outed, he wouldn't have told his role to half the game thread. He was going to die if I didn't post that. He really needs medic protection, but don't forget that he could be scum fakeclaiming. Mad Hatter is a great scumclaim because it's unconfirmable until death. Yeah that wasn't directed at just you | ||
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On August 11 2010 11:32 rastaban wrote: If I was you can be sure this wouldn't have happened. I know who most of the circle is but I am just town looking in and messaging then when I can. After this maybe it is better that I wasn't part lol. I was confused because a few pages back (60 something) you said you weren't involved in the circles and then you came out and said something to the effect of "why didn't you follow the points I PMd you" but i guess that makes sense. and i'm not positive but i think there are at least 2 circles. | ||
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On August 11 2010 11:33 Pyrrhuloxia wrote: Okay so how can we verify Xelin? No idea, since Xelin being GF or Ninja both evades the simultaneous Tracker / Conan night 1 check (assuming he was framed). However Xelin said a while back he had a method of self confirmation, which implies to me that he is a blue role that can use his ability to confirm himself to some other role acting on him at night like the watcher (if he exists) or tracker. This combined with the fact that nobody came out after this to contest Xelin's claim makes me pretty confident in his innocence. Besides the Day 2 actions to seem to me that they are the result of poor town planning rather than red interference (i mean why would a red orchestrate the lynch of a Ninja?) as an aside i feel like we haven't heard from several players in quite a while, such as | ||
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So i guess the situation is a) one of the town hits is a liar or b) someone got hit and didn't claim it, right? Either way you guys can just track or dt check whoever you think the liar is so i don't think this is that big of a problem. Can anyone clarify that BM and Artanis are in fact confirmed? | ||
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On August 15 2010 11:22 Ace wrote: hi. So if I understand this correctly there is a secret town circle centered around Xelin. He must be innocent because he was being tracked and didn't show up to visit to anyone at night. Is this correct? something like that, or he had a role and said who he'd be visiting. also i think there are at least two circles, one centered around xelin and the other around Opz. I think Foolishness might have had a 3rd circle. But by now they could all be connected, i have no idea. | ||
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A. Voting. I abstained Day 2 for two reasons: 1. Lynching a ninja is dumb, 2. I was untrusting of the rapid fire vote switching band wagon with half the town at Xelin's beck and call. Day 3 I voted and posted just to not get modkilled, as quite frankly this round is shit - but I do not want to get banned. I like having a clean track record. B. Dead mafia posts - ... you actually think this makes sense? What about, oh, all of the other names they mention once or less? What makes my name special (see: confirmation bias)? C. Fishing That would probably be the sorriest example of fishing ever and I know I can do better than that. You made two contradictory posts in the thread ("I am not in the town circle" vs "yes I am") and I wanted an explanation. Not unreasonable by any means, but the funny thing is that nobody else seemed to care except for me. Your entire case here is a rather stunning example of confirmation bias. The correct procedure for analysis goes like this: Evidence -> Analysis -> Conclusion. Here, you seem to have reversed the order. Having somehow arrived at the conclusion that I am red, you are seeking out posts that might possibly support this conclusion even when the evidence is sketchy or entirely absent. In other words, you are not analyzing from a neutral perspective. ----- I will just be forward here: this round is entirely and all-consumingly boring. I signed up only because I thought PM's would not be allowed. Almost nobody is actually playing. I tried to post and discuss earlier on, but was mostly ignored, which is really frustrating. Not being in any town circle - well, okay, I have talked with Bill Murray on MSN a little - the entire experience has been a rather unpleasant combination of 'tiresome' and 'dull.' Why bother to contribute when nobody listens and instead returns to the "safety" of PM land? At least rastaban is actually trying (and doing a rather decent job of it). I completely understand Roffles' posts now; he was just smarter than I am and figured out the situation early on. The great thing about this is that there is something like 5 other players playing the exact same way I am, except nobody seems to care about them no matter how little they contribute. Probably because they PM'd some of you guys and you believed them. ------ Regarding Youngminii I thought he was pretty red for a while (voted for him Day 3 cause it didn't matter who I voted for) but reading the penalty game has thrown this into doubt for me. In both this game and in the penalty game, young has been under a lot of heavy suspicion for being inactive / posting differently, and they actually lynched him in the penalty game. Except he flipped townie. I guess it could be a bit of a WIFOM gaming by young, playing the same style as two different roles in two games, but if his result in the penalty game is any indication maybe he really is just a townie. So there you have it. Maybe this time somebody will actually reply (can you tell I'm bitter?) | ||
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On August 16 2010 08:01 ~OpZ~ wrote: BC was playing and keeping his arrangements. I'm almost positive he would have offered information for the other ninjas. You tried to make the same deal but decided to rennig on it. I have my own win condition to attain and with Misder/Roleblockers death...I'm sorry, but Role checks become...a little less useful and the GF would have to be YM or Infund... Which that would mean its infund. Why would I be the godfather? It would be pretty stupid if I was the godfather and then purposely stayed out of the town circles. Use your head. | ||
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On August 16 2010 09:32 Foolishness wrote: He gave away BrownBear in the thread, this isn't much of a surprise =/ ... Aren't you the one that told him BrownBear's role in the first place? | ||
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cool | ||
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On August 18 2010 11:46 Foolishness wrote: Why does the mafia choose who to send in their hit list? Does it even matter? If a watcher watches someone who got hit they get the name of whoever sent in the hitlist | ||
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On August 18 2010 11:48 BloodyC0bbler wrote: It was pretty obvious that there was no dt/watcher this game though -_- how so | ||
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On August 18 2010 11:50 BloodyC0bbler wrote: all the tracker claims (town was open to how many but not who). 4 tracker claims, 3 ninjas. Combine in xelin begging for the watcher to report in. Came really obvious really quickly we had no watcher, and since it makes more sense for ninja's to help town, + we have limited RC's it was clear quickly no dt. Well of course it's obvious if you're in contact with the majority of blues I figured Xelin begging for watcher meant there was either no watcher or that he was the watcher and was just using that as a cover. DT seemed as a toss up to me | ||
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though it could have just been the timezone difference | ||
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On August 24 2010 13:00 Qatol wrote: Well, tomorrow or the day after. Just part 2 (of 3) was 39 pages in word. This might take me a little while. jesus dude. that's longer than most papers I wrote for undergrad. a veritable dissertation, if you will | ||
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