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TL Mafia XXVIII - Page 2

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LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 21 2010 18:00 GMT
#867
On July 21 2010 19:16 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Now you may think that it is too obvious for the mafia to kill off someone who publicly calls them out. It's not. It's good strategy. In fact, I myself killed off Foolishness in a game I won because he was one of the few suspicious of me. If someone suspects you, they won't magically think you're innocent if you let them survive the night. People's heuristics for determining who they will vote for don't tend to shift too wildly over the course of a game. Even if people make a mistaken vote early, they will tend to justify it ex post facto and perhaps continue it (maybe what I'm doing here, but I think I have some good logic to back up my gut feeling). If you are mafia, and a member is getting 3rd/4th place in votes, even with just a couple, that member could be in 1st a few days later. By killing off the people who are suspicious of you, even if their reasons suck, you get talked about less and you literally shave off your vote total. It's not too bad of a strategy to just play whack-a-mole going after all your public detractors because you can always just say you're getting framed. I've been there, done that.


This post here, to me, was the most informative. I have never had the chance to play a red role before and such added perspective really helped me decide on a lynch target. I'm also quite intrigued by why DTA didn't die yet; he's a very strong player (not so much this game though) and should be a priority kill.

##vote: DarthThienAn
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 21 2010 20:41 GMT
#888
On July 22 2010 03:16 Amber[LighT] wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 22 2010 03:00 LaXerCannon wrote:
On July 21 2010 19:16 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:
Now you may think that it is too obvious for the mafia to kill off someone who publicly calls them out. It's not. It's good strategy. In fact, I myself killed off Foolishness in a game I won because he was one of the few suspicious of me. If someone suspects you, they won't magically think you're innocent if you let them survive the night. People's heuristics for determining who they will vote for don't tend to shift too wildly over the course of a game. Even if people make a mistaken vote early, they will tend to justify it ex post facto and perhaps continue it (maybe what I'm doing here, but I think I have some good logic to back up my gut feeling). If you are mafia, and a member is getting 3rd/4th place in votes, even with just a couple, that member could be in 1st a few days later. By killing off the people who are suspicious of you, even if their reasons suck, you get talked about less and you literally shave off your vote total. It's not too bad of a strategy to just play whack-a-mole going after all your public detractors because you can always just say you're getting framed. I've been there, done that.


This post here, to me, was the most informative. I have never had the chance to play a red role before and such added perspective really helped me decide on a lynch target. I'm also quite intrigued by why DTA didn't die yet; he's a very strong player (not so much this game though) and should be a priority kill.

##vote: DarthThienAn


If we play the game with this logic then BC should have been killed already, but he's still alive.

Opz is still alive, he's a strong player too.

What about Roffles, he's incredibly cunning and plays the part of mafioso and townie very well.

Pyrr should have been killed based upon this logic as well.

Infun should have probably been a good target.

You're playing the game very counter-intuitively. You're insisting that strong players should die, not suspicious players. DTA is playing the Chezinu card, which is common play. There's always guaranteed to be one of those idiot players in the game. The host himself has played this card before in games...

I can't believe the people that are coming forward insisting that killing subversion will gain no knowledge. Killing DTA just verifies his play-style. We can actually tie a connection between DTA and Subversion as well as the people who are trying to avoid talking about DTA at all, or those who are supporting one lynch target over another.

I'm not going to sit here and say killing DTA is wrong, he is still a target due to his play-style this game, but he's going to give us less information than lynching Subversion. Do whatever you want but don't justify your lynch vote by saying DTA is a good player and I think other people's opinions are strong, so this must be a good choice. Sheep.


But not all of them can drop dead immediately can they? It's true I said DTA's a good player, but is he in this game? He's playing worse than he normally does. Spreading confusion does NOT help the town at all.

I read their opinion and added it to my own and used it to fuel my vote. Call it sheep if you must.
Just keep swimming
LaXerCannon
Profile Joined October 2008
Canada558 Posts
July 24 2010 03:54 GMT
#1798
Got back home at midnight and read the thread (almost two now ).

It looks like things are finally going town's way. I'm sure by this point Tricode is pretty much confirmed townie. However, just in case my vote screws something up I'll be voting for protactinium due to this:
If there are 13 votes for abstaining, then we accidentally end the day, correct? Please don't vote at all, or throw your placeholder vote on someone who is not going to carry the day in the end.


I'm absolutely sure noone will vote for him since he's been so helpful thus far.
##vote: protractium
##vote: double lynch


Again, my life has entered a shit storm and this may very well be the last post I make in around two weeks. To help BM with his search (in case any spectators missed it)
Looking for someone to take my spot

Good luck town
Just keep swimming
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