Here's a quick summary of stuff for blue's to look at. Remember to do what YOU think is best, not what anyone else says. You know you are town, so use your judgement.
L's plan
+ Show Spoiler +On July 01 2010 13:56 L wrote:Okay, so there's a few things I noted going through this that I figured some people kinda didn't realize while doing their analysis. First off is this little tidbit from the rules post: Starting means that number isn't going to stay at 1. If we fuck up our first few lynches and vig hits, we're going to hit a wall where mafia KP is just going to be too high to recover from. Between the recruitment, mafia kills and daily lynch, mafia have the ability to drop 3+ town votes per day. Assuming they play perfectly, mafia kill 2 people per day via lynch and night hit and gain 1 voting power per day. More dangerously, i'd assume that mafia gain a kp, either at 3 or 4 members. If 3 is kp=2, which we'll find out tomorrow, its possible that they move to kp=3 if they have a full 5 members. 5 members, however, would be a situation in which town has missed 4 subsequent lynches. 3 missed lynches is generally a loss condition in F11, so this isn't really that far off. This means that by day 3, there are going to be 16 players alive, 4 of them mafia, 12 town. The day 4, we hit 5/8-9. At this point, unless we have hatters, vig and double lynches available and used properly, we lose unless we kill the godfather. This is assuming that the town kp isn't improperly placed, and that we don't double lynch inaccurately. This means we need to figure out who the GF is by day 4 or we're boned, put simply, or hit goons one after another. Given this, if we have shitty leads on day 3, we might want to consider claims given the information we have, but not before then. Why not before then? Well, its pretty simple: Show nested quote +If the Godfather is checked by a DT, do you return "Godfather"?
Yes, all DT checks are 100% (minus roleblock). We can't let our DT(s) get recruited or killed early because they're the only non destructive way we have of identifying the GF. Given the shitshow of a last game, I'd like to be able to have our day 1 lynch proceed smoothly. Because of that, I want to know what people think about the following idea; We have one of the two masons claim. Given that we have verrrrry likely have medic(s), they can prot him and keep him alive during the game. If the player is lying, one (not both!) of the real masons can call him out. Given the fact that there are only 2 total mafia members today, it would cost the mafia essentially half their team to contest the mason claim. This is also a reason why claiming immediately would be more helpful than claiming at a later date. The downsides of this? Godfather now has a person he knows not to recruit, and the mason might die once mafia kp gets over 1. If we do that, we have a confirmed townie who can essentially drive our vote; if he's wrong, cool beans, it happens. If he's right; awesome. Either way, it'll prevent exploitable intra-town conflicts.
And zeks roleclaim to mason (no contention as of yet, so assuming hes legitimate sounds very reasonable to me)
+ Show Spoiler +On July 02 2010 11:58 zeks wrote:
wow the reception was awesome!
Sorry for mindfucking you all for 10 mins rofl
Yes I'm one of the Masons. For better or for worse god picked me to be the Mason and the other mason and I agreed that I'd come out and roleclaim.
Now I'm going out for real now, no more posting for the night, play on, speculate if you will. I'll read through all this in the morning.
And then Korynne's plan. People seem to have been questioning it, and we have already lynched someone, but there is some useful strategies in here, so use your intuition. We won't hate you for trying 
+ Show Spoiler +On July 01 2010 12:49 Korynne wrote:
Also DCLXVI, it's KoryNNE not KoryNEE.
rastaban I like the idea, except GF can still recruit when mafia is roleblocked right? So then best case scenerio we find 2 mafia, we end up with this situation of 5 mafia (GF recruits while we sit around roleblocking mafia), hopefully none of which are roleblocker or we're screwed on that plan unless the dream catcher gets roleblocker from another blue. And then us lynching people can potentially out the roleblocker. Or we sit around and not lynch people? That seems like a rather stalemate.
So I don't think that idea works very well... but if we go ahead and pretend there's at least one roleblocker, we can roleblock instead of lynching someone. If mafia doesn't kill that night, we lynch the guy, if mafia does kill that night then we don't lynch the guy. So if mafia wants to get the guy killed they have to sacrifice their night kill to get the guy killed, so basically it would be like us not lynching and mafia nightkilling that guy. I think that's a valid plan. But that requires a roleblocker... so... I don't know how confident we are on that matter. =\
So if we go ahead with this, it means we should pseudovote in this thread, and only vote to kill someone in the other thread when a night kill doesn't happen.
And some shameless self-promotion if you really dont know where to start. Assume the more games they've played and how active a player is ups how experienced they are and merge it with the gut feelings you get from this thread. You should be able to generate a solid guess as to what you should do.
+ Show Spoiler +On July 01 2010 13:55 bumatlarge wrote:Fun play makes me a very happy person. I love you darth. On that note, there seem to be very few new players who I have not seen play, but could have been in other games, but I have played with a good amount of the roster. That being said, I put together a list of people who have played together. I know I would like to pick someone I was familiar with. I think if you're mafia with someone, you get in contact a little more with them, and if they are cohesive, it should lead somewhere in this game. Havent gone to fr into it. If you see something I missed, got wrong, or want to go deeper, be my guest. (R) = red role + Show Spoiler +
Game 2: L(R), Chezinu, AFJ, bum
Game 3: chezinu, bum
Ace MWorld: bum, Qatol
Resurrection: zeks, qatol
Game 4: bum, lakrismama(R), Qatol
Game 5: Qatol, bum, zeks
Game 7: Qatol(R), L
Game XII: L, Chezinu
Red Army: L, Chez(R)
Mini Mafia #1: Chez, Qatol
Smurf: lol not going to bother
Mafia XV: Chez(R), L(R)
Mini Mafia 2: L, Chezinu
Game XVIII: L, Chez, Abenson
Red army 2: L, Chez, BM, Abenson, citizen
Game XX: BM, L, Abenson, citizen
Game XIV: BM, Abenson, citizen
Micro: Abenson, citizen
Micro 2: L, BM
WaW: BM, L, Abenson, citizen
Steve Zizou: Korynne(R), brownbear, Abenson
Game 22: AFJ, BM(R), Abenson, Bear
PYPM: BM, citizen, L, Korynne, Qatol (what the hell happened)
3King: L, BM, Abenson, bear (I didnt understand this much...)
bang bang: L, Korynne, bear, chez, citizen(R)
game 26: bum(R), elyas, AFJ, DCL, zeks
game 27: L(R), chez(R), citizen, afj
Team Mini: BM+Chez, L, bum, korynne, yellow(R), DCL+divine, bear
# of times played with (again i probably missed things) + Show Spoiler +
L + Chez = 10(2R)
BM + Abenson = 6
L + BM = 6
Abenson + citizen = 5
BM + citizen = 5
L + citizen = 5
L + Aben = 5
Korynne + L = 3
Korynne + bear = 3
aben + bear= 3
chez + bum = 3
bum + Qatol = 3
chez + citizen = 3
Pretty interesting, but nothing to nail anything something down. Its just to find chains of things for blue roles to use if they hit gold, and for us to put soe method to our lynching if we have nothing. I don't know the state of any of the 'connections' besides my own. From what I gather, L is completely apathetic towards chezinu. Who knows, use this as you will.
|
EPT
