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Micro-MAFIA (The First) - Page 2

Forum Index > TL Mafia
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haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 27 2010 19:35 GMT
#214
Which is why I am not voting yet. However, if this low activity continues, I see little way we can distinguish inactives from lurking Mafia.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 28 2010 01:07 GMT
#223
citizen// I hope you make your arguments soon b/c I am going to have to make decision sooner or later.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 28 2010 02:14 GMT
#224
Placing vote now because I might not be here tomorrow.

##vote citi.zen##
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 31 2010 20:06 GMT
#318
I am writing out my defense. Just posting because this is taking much longer than I thought, and probably will take a while.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 31 2010 20:54 GMT
#319
I see I am being suspected due to my inactivity. I expected this sooner or later; I over-extended myself signing in two games after all. I have no other defense to mount besides the fact that I have been too much preoccupied trying to save the disaster that was going down on WaW Mafia. Thus at this point I will just post my analysis of all alive players.

Will split this up into each players because this is taking longer than I expected.

First, Fishball

First thing that concerns me about Fishball is the way he made a vote on citizen. His first big post is nonsense argument that there are likely to be one Mafia on 1~3, and another around 5~7 due to probability. This is when Zona said in his OP that roles are distributed by random number generator and that lists are clearly alphabetical. I took a quick look at the past games held, and there were lot of instances where Mafia were clumped together on one side of the list. Fishball to my knowledge has played on TL Mafia lots of times, so why is he making such argument? Citizen argued that his 1~3,5~7 idea is senseless, which Fishball responded with a vote calling it a "play".

Now this has been already pointed out by nemY, which he defended by stating 1) he said his list cannot be trusted, and 2) the list was created purely for the speculation. This makes his vote make less sense. This is the citizen post that is the problem:

Long post saying... that since you are in the middle of the alphabetical player list, you must somehow be innocent? And that there maybe is a mafia in slots 1-3, and another in slots 5-7 (surely not 4 though!) - even though the blues were both bottom of the list? You've lost me

Note that main topic of the post was to claim that Fishball's list was senseless (logically for the reasons I stated above) and not to argue that Fishball is Mafia. Now, number one is perfect defense. I post a idea or opinion that could influence other people's thoughts, and when someone writes that idea is flawed, I can criticize him because I wrote in that post that people are free to believe or not believe this idea. Fishball is saying citizen is Mafia for pointing out a flaw in his argument- this is like worse form of OMGUS. I just feel like the vote has been thrown too lightly, especially considering that the idea being criticized was just "speculation" as you state.

Another thing I note is that Fishball's first big post implicate Ace pretty heavily for wrong reasons, since out of 1~3 player list Ace is only surviving non-Mafia member. Random hit argument is also ridiculous, since Versatile arguing with citizen gave Mafia far more incentive to kill her than any random Townie like me who post but had not posted any wrong accusations against Townie yet. I did not do firm analysis on Ace yet, so don't know what to make out of this for now.

Another thing I note is that Fishball seem to have made a lot of posts that look impressive, but does not help much at all at hindsight; 1~3,5~7 Mafia list, "If I vote randomly, I have XX% chance of hitting Mafia", "Ace, citi.zen, RoL, all give me the same gut feeling. Seems like either one of them are Mafia, or all three of them are green.", "johnnyspazz vote change should be something to be noted".

On March 28 2010 16:10 Fishball wrote:
Nemy is on top of my gut list, but no point voting for him, unless you guys would change votes.
Johnnyspazz haven't posted much. Can't comment. Lurking Mafia? Possible. Especially in a small game setting like this.
haster27 have made some logical posts, least concerned as a suspect for the moment.


This is the post where he wrote his opinion about all the players before his (still continuing) argument with johnnyspazz occured. First, he comes out of nowhere and state nemY is his top suspect without giving any explanation although he did not post many comments such like johnnyspazz. It should be pro-town move to write at least a sentence about one's reason for suspicion. And I cannot see why I would be treated as least suspect. I checked, and my only contribution was two posts about Xelin absense and Citizen-Ace conflict. Pro-town moves, but definitely not enough to push me out of 'possible Mafia' area.

In fact, "If I had the power to kill someone, right here, right now, he would be my top pick" is the correct reaction pro-town player should have toward me, even if just to force me into activity. However, I am concerned about "my top pick" comment. Although I might be lurking Mafia, it is just that- suspicion. There is not much evidence against me besides my preference toward that other game, and in situation where 3 Townie vs 2 Mafia, Town should be trying to lynch suspect with most evidence against him rather than one having dubious alignment. Could have intentionally exaggerated his wording to create a bandwagon attempt against me.

Currently I think that he is likely Mafia, although my opinion may change after looking at other players.

By the way, don't trust my argument because I may or may not be Townie. This is all speculation, and everyone should make up their minds themselves.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 31 2010 21:06 GMT
#321
1) like 4 hrs later, I suppose, or maybe even tomorrow.
2) When does the day end?
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 31 2010 21:11 GMT
#323
Well, then clearly I have no time to make my analysis. I'll make independent decision and hopefully get my reasoning up in time. I am assuming the lynching system is normal and not like WaW game where town majority is essential.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 31 2010 21:17 GMT
#324
On April 01 2010 06:02 Ace wrote:
Next Jspazz lurked too. Even worse when he did post well...yea. Clear bandwagoning. I'm sure you yourself would agree you two look the most suspect.


And I see nemY lurked reasonably too. Why single out Jspazz? You seem to be here so hopefully we can get some form of discussion going. Btw, it only take few minutes to find a topic you can write about, but to write a big post trying to explain it convincingly eats up your time like no tomorrow.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 31 2010 21:25 GMT
#325
Also, I like how you use the fact I only analyzed Fishball as sign of bandwagoning when:

"Will split this up into each players because this is taking longer than I expected.

First, Fishball"

haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 31 2010 21:54 GMT
#327
# of posts after the day post

Ace 63 posts
Fishball 19 posts
haster27 28 posts
johnnyspazz 30 posts
nemY 25 posts

First, discussing how posted how much is pretty irrelevant at this point because other than you our post counts are same same. Though I agree johnnyspazz was more prone to posting one-liners until his vote switch.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
March 31 2010 23:02 GMT
#328
I am leaving so I'll just follow what you think and vote the most inactive player.
##vote johnnyspazz##
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
April 01 2010 01:55 GMT
#336
I am about to make a ninja-vote change. This is my reasoning; when reading the game, I assumed out of johnnyspazz and Ace at least one of them was likely to be Mafia because johnnyspazz was the second person to vote for Ace. Since there are only 5 players left in the game, stacking two persons on a person can be very powerful as only group of 3 people can beat it; and there are only three Townies left!

That is why I was dubious about voting for Ace, as he had two votes already and Ace seemed to be scrambling for someone else to bandwagon. Thus I tried to create a situation where there would be 2v2 situation, and seeing how other players responded to my vote (I claimed to have left for the day so that player may believe my vote will be unchanged), counter-vote. Combined with the fact that Fishball had not placed his vote yet, I expected there to be at least one ninja-vote by Mafia to win the game.

However, with nemY vote change, I realize if Fishball stack vote on johnnyspazz it will be hard to overturn. Thus changing my vote accordingly now.

##Vote Fishball##
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
April 01 2010 01:57 GMT
#337
##Vote Ace##

Upon deeper consideration, as a Townie you know Townies need to unite to vote out someone and yet you would change your vote like that?
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
April 01 2010 02:00 GMT
#341
Well, looked like we both were planning the same thing then :/
I expected Mafia to vote-switch, but looks like only we ended up scrambling.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
April 01 2010 02:02 GMT
#343
And Fishball voted Ace? Who in the world IS Mafia?!
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
April 01 2010 02:04 GMT
#349
On April 01 2010 11:03 Fishball wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 01 2010 11:00 Ace wrote:
somehow I knew FB was lurking


I wasn't exactly lurking, like said above.
I was waiting to for my chance to vote.
I was the only one that have NOT voted yet. If I don't vote I'll simply be mod-killed.


Which is why I expected you to be Mafia ninja voter, whereupon I'll immediately counter vote. nemY screwed up that plan.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
April 01 2010 02:06 GMT
#354
On April 01 2010 10:59 Fishball wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 01 2010 10:57 haster27 wrote:
##Vote Ace##

Upon deeper consideration, as a Townie you know Townies need to unite to vote out someone and yet you would change your vote like that?


I was going to make the last call at the 2 : 2 vote tie, during the last minute.
You totally screwed up my plan haster...

##vote Ace##


The plan was screwed the minute Xelin changed votes. No matter how you would vote johnnyspazz would have been voted out for having early 2 votes against him. Which is why immediately thought this was indirect Mafia move and voted for Ace.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
April 01 2010 02:08 GMT
#358
On April 01 2010 11:08 Fishball wrote:
Show nested quote +
On April 01 2010 11:05 nemY wrote:
I knew FB was going to ninja-vote, I didn't expect anything from you haster either


I wouldn't really call that ninja voting, as I didn't even vote yet. Unless you guys actually thought I would get myself mod-killed.

Haster ninja changed his vote. That's a real ninja!

lol there are good ninjas in the world too.
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
April 01 2010 02:11 GMT
#363
yay my ninja skills saved the day (?)
haster27
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Taiwan809 Posts
April 01 2010 02:17 GMT
#366
wrong post rofl. Mod is dead, game ends in epic draw. PACIFISM!!
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