EPTWhoever is elected mayor, use your lynch wisely, and on the off-chance I am, I will use my lynch on Lunaticman, who has been inactive since we started, so we won't be losing much.
BloodyC0bblers's Mafia XVI - Page 2
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
Whoever is elected mayor, use your lynch wisely, and on the off-chance I am, I will use my lynch on Lunaticman, who has been inactive since we started, so we won't be losing much. | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
The night was a memorable one. It was a night of valiant struggle. The records show it began sometime after 1 am in the bowling alley. Toplexa, and i10f were out playing a late night game, to kill most of the night. The knew better to indulge their vices in liquor this night. The also knew better than to have their back to the doors. They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong. The heard screams coming from outside the building, and quickly drew their guns and moved slowly outside. When they emerged they witnessed itspaul charging a figure in the shadows who had some long object in his hands, one that quickly blocked itspauls clumsy attack and quickly counter attacked and killed the man. toplexa drew his rifle to his shoulder and began to fire rounds at the figure, but was too late, the mafia was already gone. nodding to his partner, they both began to creep into the night, looking to catch the killer they had just seen. That was the mistake however. As they approached the town center, they noticed someone drawing something technical on one nearby store walls. Gazing over his shoulder, the man stopped, and quickly fired two shots and ran for cover. Toplexa went one way, and i10f went another. Unfortunately for Toplexa, he never made it into position. He was stopped partway by a man with a long blade. Raising his rifle to shoot the man, he watched almost hypnotically as the man performed some odd formations in the air with his blade. When the blade finished moving, toplexa dropped dead. His lifeless eyes gazing in the direction of his friend. Had he been able to see, he would have seen i10f lifeless eyes staring back at him. I decided to write down my first impressions of the night 1 post before I read anyone else's so my ideas might be more original. Hopefully not many overlaps Ok so it really sucks that the mafia got BOTH vigis, but I guess its better to have medics still in tact. After reading this I also went through and highlighted the things I thought were significant. Some of the things I could tie back, others I don't really know. There is ANOTHER reference to drinking, when it talks about liquor. This could indicate drinking, or Iplaythings who's signature talks about thirst and water. Another more far-fetched connection are the words wrong, wrong and mistake which could point to JoxxOr who's signature is WScript.echo('You Fail'); (fail of course being the connection) Both long object and the mafia guy drawing something technical stood out to me as being odd, but I couldn't see a connection to anything. I feel like alot of things in here were awkwardly worded but couldn't connect much to anyone else. | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
On January 24 2010 08:37 Iaaan wrote: and just because I think it might be relevant, I will post some stuff about the voting. fulgrim - 3 tree.hugger itspaul decafchicken d3_cresentia - 5 Fishball Dozko softer i10f johnnyspazz It could mean nothing, but the Mafia could have killed these people (itspaul and i10f) to show that it wasn't the Mafia voting for Cresentia/fulgrim, when they really were. But that said, The mafia would have been aiming to get someone in the position of mayor, so looking at the votes for tree.hugger: tree.hugger - 3 d3_cresentia ~opz~ no_re This is who everyone thought would win, as he had 4 votes before i changed mine. I changed my vote to try to screw things up because like I said, I think the Mafia would have wanted the Mayor position the most, and the Mafia thought tree.hugger would have won (which he did) since he was in the lead. Any more votes for him would have caused a tie for sheriff, and at that point in the game, we didn't know what would have happened in a tie. Again with wanting the position of mayor, the Mafia could have voted for Cresentia in order to put them ahead of their candidate. So all that said, at this point the people I suspect the most are Softer and Johnnyspazz for bumping up cresentias votes towards the end, ~Opz~ for voting free tree.hugger, tree.hugger for being mayor (again because the mafia would want this position, and the mafia should have thought tree.hugger would win), and Quickstriker for the clues (which Fishball outlined, and I also think the line "Drawing something technical" points to his profile.) I agree that its interesting to look at the three people who died. It would be hard for the mafia to have known that 2/3 of them were blue (although they might have suspected toplexa for replacing someone), and these people really didn't post much (toplexa was saying that he was going to post some analysis.) So in my opinion the cause of their deaths was one of three things, feel free to disagree, but I think these are the only scenarios 1) One or several of the three had accidentally contacted a mafia member through pm's and had revealed their role to them 2) The mafia did it to affect our perceptions of the day 1 election (who they voted for and why) 3) Mafia just chose three random people | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
Johnnyspazz - 3 Quickstriker - 3 Softer - 2 Double lynch votes - 4 | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
Also Quickstriker was running for a short period of time and withdrew for some reason. From his posts I don't think he's mafia, but both day clues point to him... He has abstained on every vote so far which I find a bit suspicious. Depending on what Quickstriker is, I think Xelin is the opposite... (though he seems more like mafia then Quick, has accused more people of being mafia) | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
Day 1 + Show Spoiler + One night in a town of Liquiville, there came a strange event. An event of history and would lead many people to bewilderment. The sheriff Ace however was on the case. Journeying to the docks by the beach, he answered the cries of a persons shriek. What he found however, was a trail of blood. Following it straight to a cave, he saw a body at its opening, tenderly embraced by the incoming tide. Rushing to the persons aid, he turned the body and knew it was grave. A quick check of the pulse, and he knew it was done, L would fail to see the coming sun. MAFIA 1 Picking up the body, he turned to make his way back to town, and failed to see the figure step behind him. With a quick attack, the Sheriff Ace collapsed to the ground. His mind raced towards the possibilities of what happened, and he reached for his gun. But before he could begin, the figure drew overtop of him and the sheriff was done. Across town in his mayoral office, vx70GTOJudgexv sat at his desk. He was busy signing new laws for the town when he heard a crash outside his door. Getting up and exiting into the hall, he began to search for the sound. As he explored the nearby rooms he moved back to the hall and made his way back towards his office. It was then that he saw something on the ground by the window at the end of the hall. MAFIA 2 Moving towards it, he saw that it was a broken flower vase, with its contents now spread across the carpet, as well as the pieces of the pottery. It was then he felt a rush of air behind him, and something sink into his shoulder. The mayor vx70GTOJudgexv cried out, and crumpled dead to the floor. When the town awoke from their slumber, they found the three bodies lying in the town square. Knowing that they were not safe, they began to hold an electoral race. It was here that the town began to be reshaped. Day 2 + Show Spoiler + The night was a memorable one. It was a night of valiant struggle. The records show it began sometime after 1 am in the bowling alley. Toplexa, and i10f were out playing a late night game, to kill most of the night. The knew better to indulge their vices in liquor this night. The also knew better than to have their back to the doors. They were on watch the entire night, they figured that would be enough. They figured wrong. The heard screams coming from outside the building, and quickly drew their guns and moved slowly outside. MAFIA 3 When they emerged they witnessed itspaul charging a figure in the shadows who had some long object in his hands, one that quickly blocked itspauls clumsy attack and quickly counter attacked and killed the man. toplexa drew his rifle to his shoulder and began to fire rounds at the figure, but was too late, the mafia was already gone. nodding to his partner, they both began to creep into the night, looking to catch the killer they had just seen. That was the mistake however. MAFIA 4 As they approached the town center, they noticed someone drawing something technical on one nearby store walls. Gazing over his shoulder, the man stopped, and quickly fired two shots and ran for cover. Toplexa went one way, and i10f went another. Unfortunately for Toplexa, he never made it into position.MAFIA 5 He was stopped partway by a man with a long blade. Raising his rifle to shoot the man, he watched almost hypnotically as the man performed some odd formations in the air with his blade. When the blade finished moving, toplexa dropped dead. His lifeless eyes gazing in the direction of his friend. Had he been able to see, he would have seen i10f lifeless eyes staring back at him. Descriptions: Mafia 1: Quick attack, Figure "drew overtop him" We don't have alot of description about this guy besides the Quick attack (if this means anything) Mafia 2: Broken Flower Vase, "rush of air", something sink into his shoulder There seems to be alot more clues about this guy, but besides d3, we haven't really connected him to anyone else Mafia 3: "Long object", "figure in the shadows", "quickly blocked", "quickly countered", This mafia didn't actually kill either of them which could be a clue, he could also be the same as Mafia 1 who had a "quick attack" (which may indicate quickstriker) He could also be the same as mafia 2 because both of their weapons are mentioned but never said exactly what they are. Mafia 4: "drawing something technical", "fired two shots" "ran for cover" There are some clues about this mafia, but we have no clue what drawing something technical means, AGAIN this mafia didn't kill any of them Mafia 5: Long blade, "hypnotically", "odd formations in the air" This guy could potentially also be mafia 2 because of the mention of air again, but I think he is a new mafia | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
johnnyspazz - 1 (JadeFist ) 2 if you count my late vote =P softer - 7 (dozko, johnnyspazz, laaan, d3_crescentia, tree.hugger*3) QuickStriker - 4 (xelin, sidesprang, no_re, royw) VelkanKnight - 1 (Jonoman92) Xelin - 3 (shockeyy, haster27, ~OpZ~) Double Lynch - 14/30 | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
It looks like quickstriker abstained for a 3rd time.... | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
On the other hand we could start lynching "Active" people, but I have a hunch that there are few active posting mafia this game, most of them are probably lurking and just popping in to say something/accuse another player. I am suspicious of Xelin being mafia (although there aren't really any clues to support this, just by behavior) And of d3 because of the "pot of flowers", and some of his votes. I have no idea why Quickstriker abstained all three votes, and that plus the "quick" clues make me suspicious of him as well. Perhaps people could start debating WHO specifically they want lynched tomorrow. | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
On January 28 2010 02:39 d3_crescentia wrote: Another water/sea related clue and two men in black. 2AM seems like a pretty substantial clue as well... Blargh; gonna come back to this later. I remembered something else being 2 in a previous post, in the day two post the time is 1 am, so I'm not sure if there is a connection except for it always being in the early morning, or just numbers. Also in the day 2 post: quickly fired two shots and ran for cover. Agh I was almost positive Xelin was mafia.... Sorry Xelin! So here we are with a double lynch and little idea with what to do with it. I'm going to look back and look at all of Xelin's (Iaaan's and fishball's too) and see what I can find, they were pretty active so we may be able to find clues from there. Also I found another "stretch" clue that could possibly incriminate haster27, there is alot of references to water in the clues, day 1 and 3 the killings took place near the water. In haster's picture there is a picture of Florida with alot of water around it..... I also see the connection to Jadefist in the last killing, the mafia had something on his hand. Lets hope that our medics and DT's aren't all inactive...... | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
I actually have been looking at Haster's picture since the first day with the clue about water, but I didn't want to post it until anything more came up. I thought it was Florida until I posted lol | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
On January 28 2010 12:14 dozko wrote: So I went through all of the clues and thought through most of the things that happened. I now think I have a solid guess as to who the reds are: Before I present you my conclusions, take a look for your reference at the list of possible suspects: + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](http://img99.imageshack.us/i/suspects.jpg/) The people I have crossed out in red are those which are in danger of being modkilled. In my opinion we should not waste our time and lynches on these since it is highly likely that BC will take them out and I believe that the mafia are in fact among the active players. Okay so these are the people we're considering and a quick check shows us that they amount to 18 (17 excluding myself) players. Given that 7 mafia are left, then the probability of getting a lynch wrong is very favorable. Therefore I insist that we do not hesitate to vote for people who we think fit the clues, simply because they have played a big part in the thread, have a good posting style or other such details. Now on to my prime suspects for lynching. Lets get the obvious out of the way first: iloveKT has the obvious sound reference due to the sound waves in his profile. VelkanKnight has the obvious knightly association with swords. I do not think that our lynches are worth it for these guys because a) the clues are far too obvious and b) they have not been active at all so in my opinion we've got bigger fish to fry first. QuickStriker+ Show Spoiler + First lets establish a connection between the player and the concept and then see how the concept/mold fits the clues. A google search of shriek gives us references to a comic villain, to quoting wiki: “Agony, is a fictional character and a supervillain from the Spider-Man comic books. She is one of six symbiote spawns of Venom. She is predominantly purple.” First connection - look at his profile picture, there's no doubt the guy has an aura of evil badass around him. Further the sleeve is purple in the picture, the scarf is light purple and the gloves have a purplish tint. Second connection - the fictional character is listed as having "Superhuman strength, speed, agility and endurance“. This fits neatly with the ferociousness of the last day 3 kills and their speed as evidenced by the looking at the watch. Third connection - the second killing is done by "ripped the blade upwards cutting the now dead townie in half from the chest up". Again the supernatural strength needed to do this matches as above. Even more strongly however I find the resemblance between the killing blow and the hand motion of the guy in QS's profile. To me it looks like the picture is taken when the guy is doing the exact same forceful movement - starting from the chest and going up. PS. Not related to the above but the constant refusal to vote, by excuses of "not having enough information, or being too busy" given the multitude of his posts would have warranted a lynch on its own if we were playing a longer game and had whittled the mafia down initially. Therefore I will place my first vote to lynch QuickStriker Jonoman92+ Show Spoiler + Again lets start with the overlying theme of drawings / technical drawings / formations. This is written in such a way by BC that I feel that it MUST be a clue. Therefore looking at the profiles of all the suspects the only two which match are VelkanKnight - for his Lolicon reference in the quote, which is basically a type of cartoon drawings. The other match, which has already been mentioned is Jonoman92 - arcology. These are principles which are aimed at designing massive structures etc. Now while both can be classified as drawings only the latter can be considered technical, and since these building are predominantly hypothetical they can also be considered as strange formations - e.g. look at the picture on the wiki page for arcology - its basically a building formed by a load of triangles, this is something i definately relate to strange formations. I am also curious as to why this clue was overlooked initially. It is of appropriate difficulty and matches extremely well. Okay so to conclude my conjecture is that I - QuickStriker is mafia and responsible for the day 3 second and third killings and II - Jonoman92 is also mafia and responsible for the last day 2 kill. I consider these my prime suspects and will vote for them as per my reasons above. Other suspicions: Fulgrim+ Show Spoiler + The 40k warrior guy with a huge ass sword sewing death etc etc. I think that since we have nothing else that can match to the long object in the hands of one of the killers and since this looks out of place enough for it to be a clue i deem it significant. + in that same novel there is a guy called ferus manus whose "iron hands play a big role". Further people picked up on the branded hand poem and fisherman reference. Shockeyy+ Show Spoiler + I still stand by my day 2 analysis of him and the connection I made to the hypnosis related killing and the spooky red eyes on his profile pic. I suggest people give that another read, I think the hypnosis bit is definitely a clue and shockeyy is the only person it can strongly relate to. Closing conclusions: + Show Spoiler + - Remember how in the beginning of the game one of the reasons that motivated my choice to believe d3_crescentia is not mafia was his posting style etc etc. Well I now believe we have an even stronger proof of that. The people who voted for him in the election. Of the 5 total votes, 3 have been confirmed townies through death and since I am a townie as well (although sadly this will also have to be proven in death it seems) we have only 1 person voting for him, who has "unclear intent". Therefore I conclude that if the mafia ran someone for election they would've at least supported him with a decent number of members - therefore d3 cant be mafia. Of course that strategy is logical but if the mafia have not in fact put up an election candidate then this theory falls apart since it doesn't really give us any conclusions. Since I have trusted him from the beginning of the game I would look mighty retarded if he turned out red and the small number of "uncertain people" votes for him was due to the fact that the mob realized he would win anyway and thus didnt give full support to him. - This leads to the conclusion that one of tree.hugger or fulgrim must be mafia if the reds have employed that strategy. I dont relate tree.hugger's profile pic to anything so if anyone has any ideas please share them. However his conservative posting style and attractive position of responsibility make him very suspicious. - Therefore whatever the outcome I think that the next lynch should include at least one of the two Also I am very interested as to why JadeFist, votes for me. I think some people are taking on the idea of "carrying out Xelin's legacy", which I think is clearly unfounded and such people may very well be the remaining mafia members since such a high profile kill (of a very active poster) will have the obvious repercussions of other players believing that the person was killed because of his suspicion. However this could very well be the mafia's attempt to muddy the waters. For those of you who don't know Fulgrim from 40k: http://wh40k.lexicanum.com/wiki/Fulgrim I agree that Fulgrim does have a sword, I think that that clue would fit Velkanknight better then me, as for the hand clue, its a bit far fetched, if Fulgrim had some sort of tatoo or something it might be a better match. Personally I think that no_re is our biggest lead currently, and I think our clues about IloveKT and jadefist are pretty strong at the moment. I will probably be voting for one of them as well as no_re | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
On January 29 2010 08:04 Jonoman92 wrote: dozko, let me first say thanks for doing such extensive analysis to give us all information to review and consider. The thing is you have a lot of leads and so far we're yet to catch a mafia member. I think that some of the leads must be correct but it is certainly hard to know which ones. We also don't exactly know what method BC is using to lay clues. I think that if we can get a mafia member on this turn we should continue along the same path but otherwise maybe we should put less emphasis on the clues and more on examining people's postng behaviors and trying to see if we can figure out motives from that. With so many inactives it does present a problem though... I wish there was a way to check if people were viewing the thread even if they aren't posting because that would lead me to believe they are mafia rather than noobs who signed up for mafia and are dumb townies who aren't caring to participate. I believe that we should trust clues more then anything else though, because Its the one thing to be sure about. A mafia member can easily say anything in posts to throw off suspicion, but the clues will always condemn someone (although so far for us it hasn't been the right person). After we get the first mafia it should be alot easier to get the rest by looking at posts by the person and voting record. | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
On January 29 2010 09:45 no_re wrote: I feel that laaan and Xelin were both killed by the mafia since they were getting a lot of things right. Also in the PM's between Xelin and Iaaan, Iaaan only claimed to be a DT at first, and came clean to Xelin he was just a townie before he was mafia lynched. So does that mean that you KNEW that Iaaan wasn't DT before he was killed? | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
On January 29 2010 10:22 no_re wrote: Anyway if I get lynched here is my list of mafia Most likely: ShoCkey Quickstriker Jonnyspazz Tree.Hugger Possibly: d3_crescentia Dozko and the 7th who I believe if he is possibly mafia, and if he is has played it very well: Fulgrim So by the time im dead it will probably be too late anyway since they got the two places of power and such a good start. Also kinda posting this for posterity so i can be like "booya, nothing but net" come the end of the game ps. godfather - quickstriker no_re this is pretty important to tell whether you are innocent or not. Did you know that Iaaan wasn't DT before he was killed???? | ||
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Fulgrim
United States560 Posts
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