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Amui
Canada10567 Posts
On June 29 2016 15:18 MooMooMugi wrote: Anyone good with stats know what are the odds of getting 3 Cloud Drakes in a row? Given that only 3 dragons of each type can spawn per game. Is it (1/3)^3? Assuming cloud drakes can spawn, 1/27. But since you only care about the chance of 3 in a row, the first one is 1/4, and then 1/9 so 1/36. | ||
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Alaric
France45622 Posts
If I can't just walk up to them and try trading at level 1 with my Q and passive without getting trashed because I can't use minions to make up for low MS and long animation, I'll call that a nerf anyway. | ||
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Uldridge
Belgium5232 Posts
On June 29 2016 15:18 MooMooMugi wrote: Anyone good with stats know what are the odds of getting 3 Cloud Drakes in a row? Given that only 3 dragons of each type can spawn per game. Is it (1/3)^3? No, remember that first one is pooled from 4 dragons, so that's 1/4. Next are 1/3. So it should be 1/4*(1/3)^2. Maybe they have some mechanic where the chance is lower for 2 same consecutive dragons, but I couldn't tell you. | ||
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DarkCore
Germany4194 Posts
Assuming cloud drakes can spawn, 1/27. That's the likelihood of three dragons occurring with three dragons spawning. This is actually easy stats, just combinations divided by number of possible scenarios. Likelihood of: 3 CD in 3 Dragons: 1/27 3 CD in 4 dragons: 4/81 3 CD in 5 Dragons: 10/243 Not entirely clear from fractions, but the chance of 3 Cloud drakes in one game goes up with number of spawned dragons (kinda obvious) by a factor of over 10 times. If 5 dragons spawn, you'd expect three cloud dragons to spawn in ~4% of your games. Interestingly, that means the likelihood of 3 of the same dragons spawning in a 5 dragon game is about 20.5% (did I do that right? 5*10/243), which is actually pretty high. It's also almost the same likelihood of 3 of the same dragons spawning with three dragons in the game, 18.5%. In other words, three drakes of the same kind isn't awfully rare in any game scenario where dragons get taken. | ||
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Scip
Czech Republic11293 Posts
Also, why? Also, the chances of seeing 3 cloud drakes in a 5 drake game are lower than that, because to see 5 drakes the first drake has to be killed realistically like before 8 minutes, which means the first drake is almost certainly fire. Cloud drake is the evolutionarily most advantaged drake. | ||
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PrinceXizor
United States17713 Posts
On June 29 2016 20:38 Scip wrote: since when can only 3 types of drakes spawn in a given game. Also, why? Also, the chances of seeing 3 cloud drakes in a 5 drake game are lower than that, because to see 5 drakes the first drake has to be killed realistically like before 8 minutes, which means the first drake is almost certainly fire. Cloud drake is the evolutionarily most advantaged drake. It was added shortly after the specialized drakes so that people could be aware of what drakes are going to be played with in the game. rather than praying for the right one each spawn. | ||
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DarkCore
Germany4194 Posts
Also, the chances of seeing 3 cloud drakes in a 5 drake game are lower than that, because to see 5 drakes the first drake has to be killed realistically like before 8 minutes, which means the first drake is almost certainly fire. That's why I calculated the chance for 3/4/5 drakes in a game. 5 drakes is unlikely, the stat is just there. I also don't concern myself with decision making like not taking 1st dragon early, that's not really stats anymore. It was added shortly after the specialized drakes so that people could be aware of what drakes are going to be played with in the game. rather than praying for the right one each spawn. Really? I just checked and you're right, didn't know that feature, although my math is still wrong because I calculated for 5 different drakes instead of 4. The last bit should read: Interestingly, that means the likelihood of 3 of the same dragons spawning in a 5 dragon game is about 16.5% (did I do that right? 4*10/243), which is actually pretty high. It's also almost the same likelihood of 3 of the same dragons spawning with three dragons in the game, 15%. In other words, three drakes of the same kind isn't awfully rare in any game scenario where dragons get taken. My math is actually a bit misleading as well, since it assumed cloud drake spawns in the game. The actual likelihood for every game to have 3 cloud drakes would be lower since 3 dragons will spawn, but 4 dragons exist. But this is just to get a rough idea of probability for the event to occur. | ||
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Scip
Czech Republic11293 Posts
On June 29 2016 21:15 PrinceXizor wrote: It was added shortly after the specialized drakes so that people could be aware of what drakes are going to be played with in the game. rather than praying for the right one each spawn. That is a pretty strange decision so if I see the first drake I know that there's 1/3 chance it will repeat and that it's 2/9 chance any one other dragon will spawn not exactly probabilities that'd influence my decision making. Might as well be 1/4 for each lol. | ||
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kongoline
6318 Posts
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geript
10024 Posts
On June 29 2016 16:47 Amui wrote: Assuming cloud drakes can spawn, 1/27. But since you only care about the chance of 3 in a row, the first one is 1/4, and then 1/9 so 1/36. Are the three slaw able dragons set at the start of the game? My understanding was dragons were random except than once 3 types of dragons spawned the fourth type couldn't and that no more than 3 dragons of one type. If that's true, then odds of X dragons in a row is 1/4^x. This only would change if two dragons spawn, then get air. So that'd be 1/4 times 1/9 =1/36 | ||
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Jek
Denmark2771 Posts
The proposed Ryze ult is like the most out of place ability in League... lol | ||
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Slayer91
Ireland23460 Posts
On June 30 2016 02:53 kongoline wrote: just played vs soraka with 3 censors when our adc was behind /useless, the cancer is real wait what do they stack now or | ||
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Fildun
Netherlands4124 Posts
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Slayer91
Ireland23460 Posts
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Mikau
Netherlands1446 Posts
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Amui
Canada10567 Posts
On June 30 2016 04:30 Mikau wrote: Can we for the love of god stop referring to anything and everything we dislike as 'cancer'. Could go with "fucking bullshit" "how is this in the game" "rito pls" | ||
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General_Winter
United States719 Posts
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JimmiC
Canada22817 Posts
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Slayer91
Ireland23460 Posts
On June 30 2016 04:30 Mikau wrote: Can we for the love of god stop referring to anything and everything we dislike as 'cancer'. I'd prefer we used a more diverse array of insults to spice it up having only cancer in your vocabulary is pretty gay however there isn't that many words to appropriately describe 3x ardent censer soraka cancer, disgusting, pure aids; I'm running out already | ||
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Nemireck
Canada1875 Posts
On June 29 2016 17:30 Alaric wrote: Lulu gets hit hard as support too. They give compensation onto the ability she maxes last anyway, and in exchange her poke for the early levels takes a hard beating unless she positions in riskier ways. If I can't just walk up to them and try trading at level 1 with my Q and passive without getting trashed because I can't use minions to make up for low MS and long animation, I'll call that a nerf anyway. It's like, they wanted to make Lulu viable as support without affecting her Solo game. So they nerfed her laning as support with the Q nerf, in trade for a buff to Allied Whimsy... the spell that I USUALLY use on an enemy champion to keep my ADC alive... Nothing makes sense about the Lulu changes... | ||
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