Thoughts on the Chinese Hearthstone Scene and Predictions for CN vs EU 3
In August 2015, I came across an article on Liquid Hearth describing a China-versus-West-style tournament with an impressive $25,000 prize pool. Called the Celestial Invitational, it would feature invites from the western professional scene competing against qualifiers from China. However, it seemed a bit strange to me that despite going through the effort to invite famous pros to appeal (in part) to western audiences, no one watching on Twitch would know who the Chinese players were. In fact, thinking back on it, I didn’t even know how any of the Chinese qualifiers for the 2014 World Championships were determined, even though I competed at Blizzcon myself! At the time, I thought it might be fun to cast the matches that determined the qualifiers for the Celestial Invitational, just to see who would compete from the Chinese side. I mean, the qualifiers themselves had $1000 prize pools each week, larger than most qualifying tournaments. So I contacted Celestial’s manager, who gave me permission to rebroadcast (and commentate in English) the qualifiers from DouyuTV to my Twitch channel. Since then, I started casting a number of Chinese tournaments. Adding up the time between Hearthstone Team Story, the Gold Series events, and other tournaments and matches, I’ve cast over two hundred hours of Chinese Hearthstone so far.
At this point, I feel that I have a decent grasp of who the most skilled players in the Chinese Hearthstone scene are, obviously disregarding unknowns out there who have yet to break through. The Chinese players who made the top eight of the Spring Championship, thereby qualifying for the EU vs CN Championship, are all skilled, though there are, naturally, disparities in their skill level. For example, Xingsu, Pegy, and Nightwalk, in my opinion, are of roughly average skill relative to other professionals. Meanwhile, SleepyShaman, Breath, LoveCX, and Zhangbo have all exhibited a level of play superior to the vast majority of Chinese players, and perhaps on par with some of the top western professionals (Lovelychook’s ability resides somewhere in-between).
EU vs CN 3 Player Profiles
ID: Breath
Name: Yuxiang Chen
Team: Celestial
Country: China
Path to EU-CN: Nominated by Celestial to compete at Gold Series Grand Finals => 1-2 in group E (GS Grand Finals) => 2-0 in group H (group stage 1, Spring Championship) => 2-1 in group 2 (group stage 2) => 1st in single elimination playoffs (qualified for World Championships)
Accomplishments: 1st at Gold Series Spring Championship 2016 (which qualified him for Blizzcon), MVP of Hearthstone Team Story Season 1, 2nd at Gold Series Xi’an 2015, 3rd at Gold Series Tianjin 2015.
Breath signed with Celestial in the second half of 2015 and immediately became a staple for them in Hearthstone Team Story (HTS), the premier team league in China. Known for his quick play, he tasted some individual success by finishing 3rd at Tianjin and 2nd at Xi’an before finally winning his first major tournament at the Gold Series Spring Championship. He was also the MVP at HTS, which netted him roughly $9000. The only player other than Naiman at EU-CN who has qualified for this year’s World Championships, Breath won the Spring Championships by bringing an all-control, ban-Druid lineup.
Prediction: 2nd in groups, advances to quarterfinals.
ID: Nightwalk (衣锦夜行)
Name: Shanpeng Yu
Team: World Elite
Country: China
Path to EU-CN: Qualified for Spring Championship (3rd party event winner) => 1-2 in group D ( GS Grand Finals) => 2-0 in group C (group stage 1, Spring Championship) => 2-1 in group 1 (group stage 2) => 2nd in single elimination playoffs.
Notable accomplishments: 1st at WCA 2015 China Pro Qualifier, 4th at Gold Series Tianjian 2015, 2nd at Gold Series Spring Championship 2016.
Nightwalk had a very up-and-down 2015, winning the WCA China Pro Qualifier but struggling at HTS and most other individual tournaments until he made the finals of the Spring Championship with a super-control lineup. Though his deck choices are typically solid, his in-game play can occasionally suffer. Nightwalk has been with World Elite since early 2015.
Prediction: 4th in groups.
ID: Zhangbo (好学生张博)
Name: Bo Zhang
Team: Tongfu
Country: China
Path to EU-CN: Qualified for Spring Championship (Won Gold Series Xian) => 2-0 in group F (GS Grand Finals) => 2-1 in group D (group stage 1, Spring Championship) => 2-0 in group 2 (group stage 2) => 3rd in single elimination playoffs.
Notable accomplishments: 1st at Gold Series Grand Finals 2015, 1st at Gold Series Xi’an 2015, 3rd at Gold Series Spring Championship 2016.
Zhangbo burst onto the Chinese scene in 2015, first by winning Gold Series Xi’an, then following that up with a win at the Gold Series Grand Finals 2015. At the Spring Championships, he advanced to the semifinals before his aggressive lineup ran into Nightwalk’s anti-aggro compositions. A fan of aggressive decks (though not afraid of playing control if necessary), Zhangbo signed with Tongfu shortly after winning Gold Series Grand Finals.
Prediction: 1st in groups, advances to semifinals.
ID: LoveCX (爱陈潇)
Name: Zhongkai Guo
Team: Yolo Miracle
Country: China
Path to EU-CN: Qualified for Spring Championship (Won China Championship) => 2-0 in group B (GS Grand Finals) => 2-1 in group G (group stage 1, Spring Championship) => 2-0 in group 1 (group stage 2) => 4th in single elimination playoffs.
Notable accomplishments: 1st at Gold Series Fuzhou 2015, 1st at China Championship/Blizzcon Qualifier, Ro16 at World Championship, 4th at Spring Championship.
After winning Gold Series Fuzhou, LoveCX signed with Yolo Miracle prior to winning the China Championship (which doubled as the 2015 Blizzcon qualifier). Though he struggled at the World Championships, he has consistently displayed very strong play, both in individual events as well as his occasional appearance in HTS matches.
Prediction: 2nd in groups, advances to quarterfinals.
ID: Lovelychook aka Ruoji (弱鸡)
Name: Bohan Zhang
Team: Newbee
Country: China
Path to EU-CN: Nominated by Newbee to compete at Spring Championship => 2-1 in group D (GS Grand Finals) => 2-1 in group E (group stage 1, Spring Championship) => 2-0 in group 1 (group stage 2) => Ro8 in single elimination playoffs.
Notable accomplishments: 1st at Gold Series Grand Finals 2014, 2nd at WCA China Pro Qualifier 2015, 4th at Gold Series Grand Finals 2015.
At just 19-years-old, Lovelychook already has a number of accomplishments to his name, having won the Gold Series Grand Finals 2014 while almost defending his title this year. His play in HTS team matches has been up-and-down, but he has consistently performed well in “individual” tournaments. Lovelychook played in last year’s EU vs CN, where he fell to Tiddler in the quarterfinals.
Prediction: 3rd in groups
ID: Xingsu (星苏)
Name: Xing Liu
Team: Invictus Gaming
Country: China
Path to EU-CN: Nominated by iG to compete at Spring Championship =>1-2 in group B (GS Grand Finals) => 2-0 in group E (group stage 1, Spring Championship) => 2-1 in group 2 (group stage 2) => Ro8 in single elimination playoffs
Notable accomplishments: 2nd at Stone League 2015, Ro8 Spring Championship
Xingsu has been one of Invictus Gaming’s best players since he joined the team in late 2014. A popular figure, he consistently received the majority of fan voting even when seemingly outmatched at the Spring Championship. Xingsu doesn’t have any major victories under his name, but he’s looking to change that at EU vs CN 3.
Prediction: 4th in groups.
ID: SleepyShaman (贪睡之萨满)
Name: Mingyang Ma
Team: eStar Gaming
Country: China
Path to EU-CN: Nominated by his former team Yolo Miracle to compete at Spring Championship => 2-1 in group A (GS Grand Finals) => 2-1 in group E (group stage 1, Spring Championship) => 2-1 in group 1 (group stage 2) => Ro8 in single elimination playoffs.
Notable accomplishments: 3rd at Gold Series Grand Finals 2015, 3rd at CN vs EU 2, 3rd at Gold Series Guangzhou 2016.
SleepyShaman is one of the most consistent players in China, having placed in the semifinals and quarterfinals at a number of major events. That consistency helped bring Yolo Miracle to the finals of HTS season 1, where they eventually lost to Team Celestial. SleepyShaman is looking to finally pick up his first major title at EU vs CN 3 after a nail-biting loss in EU vs CN 2 to Kolento in the semifinals.
Prediction: 4th in groups.
ID: Pegy (小易)
Name: Songling Qiu
Team: Vici Gaming
Country: China
Path to EU-CN: Nominated by VG to compete at Spring Championship => 2-0 in group C (GS Grand Finals) => 2-1 in group A (group stage 1, Spring Championship) => 2-0 in group 2 (group stage 2) => Ro8 in single elimination playoffs.
Notable accomplishments: 2nd at G-League 2015, 3rd at I-League Season 3.
Pegy has been one of Vici Gaming’s most consistent players, anchoring their lineup at both the NEL and HTS team leagues. A brash, talkative player, Pegy has yet to win a title after having come close in both the I- and G-leagues.
Prediction: 4th in groups.
ID: Kolento
Name: Aleksandr Malsh
Team: Cloud9
Country: Ukraine
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at WCA 2015 Europe Pro Qualifier, 1st at Kinguin Pro League 2015, 1st at Gamers Assembly 2015, 1st at CN vs EU 2, 1st at Dreamhack Winter 2014, 1st at Viagame House Cup #1, Ro8 2014 World Championships.
Known as K-God in China, Kolento has a laundry list of titles and accomplishments and was a natural invite both for his popularity and skill.
Prediction: 3rd in groups
ID: ThijsNL
Name: Thijs Molendijk
Team: G2 Esports
Country: Netherlands
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at 2015 Europe Championships, 1st at Dreamhack Bucharest 2014, 1st at The Curse Trials, 2nd at Dreamhack Winter 2014, 2nd Starladder Season 1, 3rd at 2015 World Championships.
Thijs is perhaps the most consistent player in the world, having won multiple major titles while placing high at several more.
Prediction: 1st in groups, advances to finals.
ID: SuperJJ
Name: Jan Janssen
Team: compLexity
Country: Germany
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at SeatStory Cup IV, 1st at Time2Win Invitational, 3rd at Insomnia56, 2nd at ASUS ROG, 3rd at The Curse Trials
SuperJJ has been on fire since the end of 2015, winning his first LAN at SeatStory and placing high in a number of other tournaments.
Prediction: 2nd in groups, advances to quarterfinals.
ID: Lifecoach
Name: Adrian Koy
Team: G2 Esports
Country: Germany
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at Celestial Invitational #1, 1st at Viagame House Cup #3, 3rd at Europe Championship, 3rd at Dreamhack Winter 2014, Ro16 at 2015 World Championship
The only player to compete in both EU vs CN 1 (online) and EU vs CN 3, Lifecoach is a staple in the Hearthstone community for his consistency and deliberate style of play.
Prediction: 3rd in groups.
ID: Stancifka
Name: Stanislav Cifka
Team: Teamless
Country: Czech Republic
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at Starladder Season 1, 1st at Dreamhack Bucharest 2015, 3rd at Viagame House Cup 3, 2nd at SeatStory Cup IV.
Stancifka actually participated in last year’s EU vs CN 2, where he lost to Kolento in the quaterfinals, before his breakout performance at Dreamhack Bucharest.
Prediction: 1st in groups, advances to semifinals
ID: Naiman
Name: Ole Batyrbekov
Team: Virtus.Pro
Country: Kazakhstan
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at Europe Winter Championship 2016, 3rd at Gfinity Spring Masters 2015.
Naiman successfully recovered from his HWC disqualification in 2015 to become the first Blizzcon qualifier from Europe this year.
Prediction: 2nd in groups, advances to quarterfinals
ID:Orange
Name: Jon Westberg
Team: Archon
Country: Sweden
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at ASUS ROG 2016, 1st at Abios Grand Tournament, 1st at SeatStory Cup III, 1st at IEM Katowice 2015.
Orange has had an up-and-down Hearthstone career, mixing in slumps with periods of title-winning brilliance.
Prediction: 3rd in groups.
ID: Ostkaka
Name: Sebastian Engwall
Team: Natus Vincere
Country: Sweden
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at 2015 World Championship, 2nd at Hearthstone Champions League 2, 3rd at the Curse Trials, 3rd at 2015 Europe Championship, 2nd at SeatStory Cup III.
The reigning world champion, Ostkaka is perhaps the most respected player among Hearthstone professionals.
Prediction: 1st in groups, wins title.
Name: Aleksandr Malsh
Team: Cloud9
Country: Ukraine
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at WCA 2015 Europe Pro Qualifier, 1st at Kinguin Pro League 2015, 1st at Gamers Assembly 2015, 1st at CN vs EU 2, 1st at Dreamhack Winter 2014, 1st at Viagame House Cup #1, Ro8 2014 World Championships.
Known as K-God in China, Kolento has a laundry list of titles and accomplishments and was a natural invite both for his popularity and skill.
Prediction: 3rd in groups
ID: ThijsNL
Name: Thijs Molendijk
Team: G2 Esports
Country: Netherlands
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at 2015 Europe Championships, 1st at Dreamhack Bucharest 2014, 1st at The Curse Trials, 2nd at Dreamhack Winter 2014, 2nd Starladder Season 1, 3rd at 2015 World Championships.
Thijs is perhaps the most consistent player in the world, having won multiple major titles while placing high at several more.
Prediction: 1st in groups, advances to finals.
ID: SuperJJ
Name: Jan Janssen
Team: compLexity
Country: Germany
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at SeatStory Cup IV, 1st at Time2Win Invitational, 3rd at Insomnia56, 2nd at ASUS ROG, 3rd at The Curse Trials
SuperJJ has been on fire since the end of 2015, winning his first LAN at SeatStory and placing high in a number of other tournaments.
Prediction: 2nd in groups, advances to quarterfinals.
ID: Lifecoach
Name: Adrian Koy
Team: G2 Esports
Country: Germany
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at Celestial Invitational #1, 1st at Viagame House Cup #3, 3rd at Europe Championship, 3rd at Dreamhack Winter 2014, Ro16 at 2015 World Championship
The only player to compete in both EU vs CN 1 (online) and EU vs CN 3, Lifecoach is a staple in the Hearthstone community for his consistency and deliberate style of play.
Prediction: 3rd in groups.
ID: Stancifka
Name: Stanislav Cifka
Team: Teamless
Country: Czech Republic
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at Starladder Season 1, 1st at Dreamhack Bucharest 2015, 3rd at Viagame House Cup 3, 2nd at SeatStory Cup IV.
Stancifka actually participated in last year’s EU vs CN 2, where he lost to Kolento in the quaterfinals, before his breakout performance at Dreamhack Bucharest.
Prediction: 1st in groups, advances to semifinals
ID: Naiman
Name: Ole Batyrbekov
Team: Virtus.Pro
Country: Kazakhstan
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at Europe Winter Championship 2016, 3rd at Gfinity Spring Masters 2015.
Naiman successfully recovered from his HWC disqualification in 2015 to become the first Blizzcon qualifier from Europe this year.
Prediction: 2nd in groups, advances to quarterfinals
ID:Orange
Name: Jon Westberg
Team: Archon
Country: Sweden
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at ASUS ROG 2016, 1st at Abios Grand Tournament, 1st at SeatStory Cup III, 1st at IEM Katowice 2015.
Orange has had an up-and-down Hearthstone career, mixing in slumps with periods of title-winning brilliance.
Prediction: 3rd in groups.
ID: Ostkaka
Name: Sebastian Engwall
Team: Natus Vincere
Country: Sweden
Path to EU-CN: Invited
Notable accomplishments: 1st at 2015 World Championship, 2nd at Hearthstone Champions League 2, 3rd at the Curse Trials, 3rd at 2015 Europe Championship, 2nd at SeatStory Cup III.
The reigning world champion, Ostkaka is perhaps the most respected player among Hearthstone professionals.
Prediction: 1st in groups, wins title.
Pre-Bracketing Predictions
Unfortunately for the Chinese team, a few of the players invited from Europe can reasonably lay claim to being the best in the world. Thijs and Ostkaka, in particular, are players who bring a level of sophistication to their deck-building and in-game play that is very rarely matched. In fact, every single player on the European team has won at least one major LAN event, whereas only half of the Chinese team has won any LANs, all of which were Chinese-only events. Additionally, many of the European players have experience playing (and beating) Chinese players, while only SleepyShaman, Lovelychook, and Nightwalk have ever defeated a non-Chinese player in a major tournament.
Ultimately, while the Chinese team represents a range of skill from average to very good (again, relative to the overall competitive Hearthstone scene), the European team’s players’ skill range is superior. Indeed, it would not be surprising to see any of Europe’s players win the title, while the same cannot be said for at least half of China’s players. Xingsu, Pegy, Nightwalk, and Lovelychook, specifically, would be considered heavy underdogs against any single European player. Furthermore, SleepyShaman, Breath, and LoveCX might be on even footing against some European players, but they would still be outclassed by Thijs, Ostkaka, and possibly others. Realistically, the only Chinese player that could score multiple wins and potentially win the title is Zhangbo, who I’ve consistently been impressed by (albeit only in the few months he’s been relevant).
Now, the argument could be made that the European team is comprised of invites while the Chinese players qualified for the event, which could explain the skill disparity. However, the Chinese team is not far off from what an “invited” team would look like. Based on recent results, Zhangbo, LoveCX, Breath, SleepyShaman, and Lovelychook would all be highly considered for selection, with Nightwalk having a reasonable chance of making the team as well. That leaves just Xingsu and Pegy as potential lay-offs, but considering the potential replacements (RayAllen? Zoro?), there would be no way to realistically surpass the quality of the European team.
So why is the European team stronger (at least in my opinion)? Ironically, it comes down to the fact that unknown European players have more opportunity to break out. Among the players representing Europe, Orange, Naiman, Ostkaka, and StanCifka all made names for themselves in the past year through qualifying for and winning tournaments from “scratch”. Meanwhile, the Chinese players qualified for EU vs CN by placing top eight in a tournament in which twenty-four out of the thirty-two players participated based on results from the Gold Series Grand Finals, a tournament where half of the players were invites. Sure, it’s technically possible to wade through the massive numbers of players in one of the Gold Series tournaments, but that takes a great deal of luck, as is the case with winning a large tournament in any game or sport. Even after winning a Gold Series event, a player better make group stages at the Grand Finals, or risk sinking back to irrelevancy; just ask Gold Series event winners Gudu, WuBu, or Immortal.
Right now, Chinese players are more likely to succeed by becoming famous or joining a well-known team. Take Xingsu, for example. Xingsu participated in the Gold Series Grand Finals for Invictus Gaming, a team that finished seventh out of eight teams in the first season of Hearthstone Team Story, China’s most prominent team league. He failed to make it out of the group stages, but still managed to qualify for the Gold Series grand finals. At the Spring Championships, Xingsu compiled a 4-1 record, advancing out of two group stages to finish in the top eight. Overall, his 5-4 series record since being nominated by his team to play in the Gold Series Grand Finals was enough to represent China in CN vs EU. Contrast that with MoYan, who fought his way through a five hundred and twelve person bracket filled with professionals to win Gold Series Guangzhou, only to have the misfortune of running into Zhangbo at the Spring Championships twice, resulting in elimination.
My personal opinion (and this goes for players and tournaments anywhere in the world) is that players should be rewarded for consistently doing well in tournaments. A player with three top-four finishes in large, open-bracket tournaments is more impressive than a player who wins one tournament while losing in the early rounds of the other two. Yet, the latter player is the one who receives the recognition. Obviously, popularity and marketability play big roles in these kinds of decisions, but it would be nice to see teams and tournament organizers notice the consistent performers, rather than one-off tournament winners.
As far as the Chinese qualification system for EU vs CN (well as BlizzCon) are concerned, the Gold Series Spring Championship may have not been the best way to go about it. Most of the players received their “qualification” through 2015 results, team nominations (based on 2015 results), or straight invites; hardly indicative of a fresh start to 2016. Under the existing system, players such as Keroro, Caoyuan, or Robin are unfairly penalized for competing for good teams. Meanwhile, the strong teamwork on team G2 was arguably what propelled both Thijs and Lifecoach to the World Championships. Though it can be difficult to weed out the truly great players in a game like Hearthstone solely through open-bracket tournaments, the Winter Championship results from Europe, the Americas, and Asia-Pacific have illustrated this system’s inefficacy.
Back to the tournament, though. Like I mentioned earlier, half of the Chinese players would be an underdog versus their EU counterparts. The most likely cause of an upset would be players’ deck choices: Nightwalk’s “ban Druid” lineup at the (pre-Standard) Spring Championship, for instance, easily defeated Zhangbo’s “kill Druid” lineup, even though I consider Zhangbo to be the superior player. Players who often bring unusual decks (Stancifka, Orange, Kolento), or players who consistently choose the same deck archetypes (Lifecoach, Zhangbo) could find themselves eliminated early, or winning it all. In the end, I see five or six European players getting out of the double-elimination group stages, leaving just two or three Chinese players. From there, I predict one of the Chinese players (likely Zhangbo) making it to the round of four. In the end, it will be two European players in the final, with Ostkaka winning it all.