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On November 12 2026 00:57 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2026 22:25 Jankisa wrote:Yet another attempt at peace talks is under way in Abu Dhabi. As it is to be expected from a real estate guy and son of another real estate guy who married a daughter of a real estate guy turned reality star turned POTUS, the proposal is as dumb and naive as you can imagine: The proposal, put forward by US President Donald Trump’s peace envoys, envisaged changing the borders of the two eastern Ukrainian regions to reflect the current division of territory along the front line, The Telegraph reported, citing a Ukrainian source close to the negotiations.
Under the proposed arrangement, Moscow could declare that it had achieved its goal of taking the entire Donbas, even though Ukrainian forces would retain control of cities that Russian troops have failed to capture. So, basically, Russia declares victory, they de facto keep the annexed territory but the fortress belt cities remain under Ukrainian "occupation". It's bonkers. It is also a way to stop fighting. I mean, if we wait however long it takes Russia to give up, it's likely Ukraine can take back more/all of the Donbas. But that's a lot of rockets and drones landing on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians. An unhappy peace may be more acceptable right now than continuing the war. But that's really up to the Ukrainians. Either way, where exactly the border is is actually less important than how can Ukraine obtain guarantees this whole thing doesn't restart in 10 years when Russia feels there's a new generation of young lads they can send to the meat grinder. If Ukraine can get a NATO membership out of ending the war now, it's almost certainly worth giving up those territories, and "occupying" the fortress belt.
Russia is the one not accepting peace at current borders. Ukraine has accepted that as long as they get security guarantees for 2 years now.
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There are just so many non starters from the Russian side. They want certain countries removed from NATO for example, that is what they mean when they say a reorder of European defence packs. The Budapest memorandum already had what people who don’t pay attention to what Russia actually wants in it and obviously Ukraine is not going to accept something like that again. They want Ukraine to have not only an installed pro Russian government (dictatorship), but also a limit on their military size and capabilities, like nothing long range. They want all that the USSR had, at least.
What is crazy is in the last two weeks the engagements per day have dropped quite dramatically and the Russian casualties have skyrocketed. Each engagement averaged just under 9 deaths per, now it’s up over 20. Russia has had now 6 straight days of over 2k casualties, all the top 10 records are from like last couple of weeks to a month. And after the 2 week pause on energy attacks, where Russia just kept doing it BTW, Ukraine has absolutely ravished Russian refineries. They were hitting them before but the refineries would have like one or two major fires, now they have 7-10. 2 more were confirmed last night including one in Siberia and one more was announced but not yet confirmed.
For the Russian side they have just gone all in on creating a humanitarian crisis. They are breaking record for civilians killed as Oct was the highest month yet. They are slamming Ukrainian civilian heating infrastructure because Ukraine has no patriots to deal with ballistics. It seems to be the Russian goal that if they kill enough women, children and grandparents while making life insufferable the Ukrainians will just quit. But because they are not hitting the Ukrainian military targets as much any more it is going worse for them on the battlefield. They are actually losing small amounts of land overall AND losing way more troops and equipment than ever before.
The correct strategy that is obvious but won’t happen is every time the Russians do one of their many “hybrid” attacks on Europe , Europe steps up the weapons shipments to Ukraine. The gloves come off with starshield activated over Russian proper and the US stops blocking the patriot deliveries.
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On November 12 2026 01:51 Yurie wrote:Show nested quote +On November 12 2026 00:57 Acrofales wrote:On November 11 2026 22:25 Jankisa wrote:Yet another attempt at peace talks is under way in Abu Dhabi. As it is to be expected from a real estate guy and son of another real estate guy who married a daughter of a real estate guy turned reality star turned POTUS, the proposal is as dumb and naive as you can imagine: The proposal, put forward by US President Donald Trump’s peace envoys, envisaged changing the borders of the two eastern Ukrainian regions to reflect the current division of territory along the front line, The Telegraph reported, citing a Ukrainian source close to the negotiations.
Under the proposed arrangement, Moscow could declare that it had achieved its goal of taking the entire Donbas, even though Ukrainian forces would retain control of cities that Russian troops have failed to capture. So, basically, Russia declares victory, they de facto keep the annexed territory but the fortress belt cities remain under Ukrainian "occupation". It's bonkers. It is also a way to stop fighting. I mean, if we wait however long it takes Russia to give up, it's likely Ukraine can take back more/all of the Donbas. But that's a lot of rockets and drones landing on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians. An unhappy peace may be more acceptable right now than continuing the war. But that's really up to the Ukrainians. Either way, where exactly the border is is actually less important than how can Ukraine obtain guarantees this whole thing doesn't restart in 10 years when Russia feels there's a new generation of young lads they can send to the meat grinder. If Ukraine can get a NATO membership out of ending the war now, it's almost certainly worth giving up those territories, and "occupying" the fortress belt. Russia is the one not accepting peace at current borders. Ukraine has accepted that as long as they get security guarantees for 2 years now.
It’s crazy how many people think that Russia has anything resembling reasonable demands for the ceasefire and it’s Ukraine holding it up. Since the failed offensive years ago Ukraine has publicly been open to accepting freezing the current lines, even just for negotiations. Every ceasefire Trump has bellowed about Ukraine has followed until weeks of Russia ignoring it.
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Yup, thanks Simberto, seems pretty self evident and logical but I guess it had to be pointed out.
The proposal is kind of similar to what happened in Transnistria, freeze the front and let one side’s forces stay on land the other claims. In Moldova, the 1992 ceasefire authorizes the Russian peacekeepers’ presence, which Moldova still calls a violation of its sovereignty. The Donbas version reverses the roles: Moscow claims the region on paper while Ukraine keeps its fortified cities.
Transnistria also shows how long “temporary” lasts. Russia promised in 1999 to withdraw by 2002 and never did. One look at the map and anyone can understand how insane the proposal is:
How would these guys get resupplied, how would these cities have normal life for Ukrainians while they are completely surrounded by newly Russian territory?
Additionally, NATO is in no way, shape or form on the table, it's silly to even suggest something like that could happen, Russia as of 2024 hasn't moved from it's maximalist claims, all 4 regions + Crimea formally recognized, no NATO in writing, limits to military size
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On November 12 2026 00:57 Acrofales wrote:Show nested quote +On November 11 2026 22:25 Jankisa wrote:Yet another attempt at peace talks is under way in Abu Dhabi. As it is to be expected from a real estate guy and son of another real estate guy who married a daughter of a real estate guy turned reality star turned POTUS, the proposal is as dumb and naive as you can imagine: The proposal, put forward by US President Donald Trump’s peace envoys, envisaged changing the borders of the two eastern Ukrainian regions to reflect the current division of territory along the front line, The Telegraph reported, citing a Ukrainian source close to the negotiations.
Under the proposed arrangement, Moscow could declare that it had achieved its goal of taking the entire Donbas, even though Ukrainian forces would retain control of cities that Russian troops have failed to capture. So, basically, Russia declares victory, they de facto keep the annexed territory but the fortress belt cities remain under Ukrainian "occupation". It's bonkers. It is also a way to stop fighting. I mean, if we wait however long it takes Russia to give up, it's likely Ukraine can take back more/all of the Donbas. But that's a lot of rockets and drones landing on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians. An unhappy peace may be more acceptable right now than continuing the war. But that's really up to the Ukrainians. Either way, where exactly the border is is actually less important than how can Ukraine obtain guarantees this whole thing doesn't restart in 10 years when Russia feels there's a new generation of young lads they can send to the meat grinder. If Ukraine can get a NATO membership out of ending the war now, it's almost certainly worth giving up those territories, and "occupying" the fortress belt.
Putin's demands are completely insane. He wants the rest of Donbas to even enter ceasefire negotiations. That's right - not conclude a ceasefire deal, and certainly not a peace deal. At the current rate, Russia has no prospects of ever taking the rest of Donbas. In best case scenario, it would take them decades and additional hundreds of thousands of KIA.
The only way to end this war is to enable Ukraine to strike Russian economy even harder and given it the green light to attack Russian power plants and heating infrastructure (if the West is preventing that) so that this fascist shithole can collapse.
Putin won't stop until Ukraine surrenders and half of Europe is under Russia's control like during the Cold War. I'd rather see Europe enter the war than surrender to that shithole of a country.
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On November 12 2026 02:17 maybenexttime wrote:Show nested quote +On November 12 2026 00:57 Acrofales wrote:On November 11 2026 22:25 Jankisa wrote:Yet another attempt at peace talks is under way in Abu Dhabi. As it is to be expected from a real estate guy and son of another real estate guy who married a daughter of a real estate guy turned reality star turned POTUS, the proposal is as dumb and naive as you can imagine: The proposal, put forward by US President Donald Trump’s peace envoys, envisaged changing the borders of the two eastern Ukrainian regions to reflect the current division of territory along the front line, The Telegraph reported, citing a Ukrainian source close to the negotiations.
Under the proposed arrangement, Moscow could declare that it had achieved its goal of taking the entire Donbas, even though Ukrainian forces would retain control of cities that Russian troops have failed to capture. So, basically, Russia declares victory, they de facto keep the annexed territory but the fortress belt cities remain under Ukrainian "occupation". It's bonkers. It is also a way to stop fighting. I mean, if we wait however long it takes Russia to give up, it's likely Ukraine can take back more/all of the Donbas. But that's a lot of rockets and drones landing on Ukrainian infrastructure and civilians. An unhappy peace may be more acceptable right now than continuing the war. But that's really up to the Ukrainians. Either way, where exactly the border is is actually less important than how can Ukraine obtain guarantees this whole thing doesn't restart in 10 years when Russia feels there's a new generation of young lads they can send to the meat grinder. If Ukraine can get a NATO membership out of ending the war now, it's almost certainly worth giving up those territories, and "occupying" the fortress belt. Putin's demands are completely insane. He wants the rest of Donbas to even enter ceasefire negotiations. That's right - not conclude a ceasefire deal, and certainly not a peace deal. At the current rate, Russia has no prospects of ever taking the rest of Donbas. In best case scenario, it would take them decades and additional hundreds of thousands of KIA. The only way to end this war is to enable Ukraine to strike Russian economy even harder and given it the green light to attack Russian power plants and heating infrastructure (if the West is preventing that) so that this fascist shithole can collapse. Putin won't stop until Ukraine surrenders and half of Europe is under Russia's control like during the Cold War. I'd rather see Europe enter the war than surrender to that shithole of a country.
Agreed, Putin's demands are insane. But Jankisa said Trump's is. Without having read it and going off what the quote said and what Simberto and Yurie said Ukraine already agrees to (peace with current borders frozen), the solution is basically the same as Ukraine's terms, with a sweetener for Russia thrown in that claims the land is "occupied".
I guess the point about occupied means it is disputed and therefore blocks NATO membership is valid, but Spain is in NATO and as far as Morocco (and apparently the US) is concerned, Ceuta and Melilla are disputed territory...
Not to mention the Falklands, which have a specific carve out to exclude South Atlantic territories. Pretty sure that if NATO countries wanted to, they'd figure something out even if the label says "occupied" to mollify Russia.
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It insane in the sense that why would Ukraine accept any security agreement short of nato, when they had one and it was violated? And why would Russia accept nato for Ukraine when they already have stated that one of the main reasons for attacking Ukraine was nato expansion and they want the eastern block removed from nato.
The really really insane part is removing sanctions while they negotiate with neither side being willing to accept (and Russia literally needing countries not in the current conflict to make concessions they would be insane to do).
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EPT![[image loading]](https://understandingwar.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Fortress-Belt-Water-Features-scaled.webp)
