EPTTrading/Investing Thread - Page 151
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria871 Posts
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CuddlyCuteKitten
Sweden2843 Posts
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17698 Posts
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Manit0u
Poland17798 Posts
I only wish other indices would also block them, because if it all went through it would be the biggest rug pull in history of mankind. On May 26 2026 05:25 Yurie wrote: xAI and Musk are two big downsides. Especially xAI that burns all of SpaceX profit and then a bit more. Musk also has no plans on killing xAI so it will keep burning money. SpaceX without xAI is a solid company I would be fine with. xAI loses the company money and is somehow responsible for 50%+ of its valuation. The only profitable part of SpaceX is StarLink. Which is fine as revenue from it is high enough to keep the company going and make up for all their losses in the rocket department (which is way under). Tucking on xAI onto it makes it a huge blow though, previously if you had +600m from connectivity, -300m from rockets you were doing ok, now you get extra -2.5b added to the equation... | ||
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ETisME
12784 Posts
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Malinor
Germany4758 Posts
Currently 63% ETFs and 37% single stocks, aiming for 67-33 to 70-30 in the long run, but that will take some time. I feel I should be stacking up on cash in the foreseeable future, but then I feel like I am trying to time the market and feel stupid. But since I have to replenish my emergency fund anyway due to an exceptional tax payment, it feels like this is more of an academic discussion in my head. Waiting for a market correction currently feels like Waiting For Godot. | ||
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Yurie
12126 Posts
On June 08 2026 21:48 Malinor wrote: First time I am looking up my YTD, ever. Sitting at +24% now, which is wild, given that I don't hold any tech stocks or any trendy stocks for that matter. Currently 63% ETFs and 37% single stocks, aiming for 67-33 to 70-30 in the long run, but that will take some time. I feel I should be stacking up on cash in the foreseeable future, but then I feel like I am trying to time the market and feel stupid. But since I have to replenish my emergency fund anyway due to an exceptional tax payment, it feels like this is more of an academic discussion in my head. Waiting for a market correction currently feels like Waiting For Godot. Oil prices will spike in a month or two. Might already be priced in and thus no crash is coming in the near future. Always so fun trying to guess if something is priced in or not and how people will react. Perhaps we see a mass sell off of stock to afford living for the middle class? That could trigger a crash? | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17798 Posts
On June 09 2026 01:28 Yurie wrote: Oil prices will spike in a month or two. Might already be priced in and thus no crash is coming in the near future. Always so fun trying to guess if something is priced in or not and how people will react. Perhaps we see a mass sell off of stock to afford living for the middle class? That could trigger a crash? If AI fad turns out to be a dud it'll trigger a crash because so much of the stock market is riding on so few companies and their entire valuations are now hyper-inflated because of AI craze. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria871 Posts
On June 09 2026 02:09 Manit0u wrote: If AI fad turns out to be a dud it'll trigger a crash because so much of the stock market is riding on so few companies and their entire valuations are now hyper-inflated because of AI craze. AI is not a bubble, it brings productivity gains. However, it's overhyped at times which is not great and it also leads to massive hardware price increases (e.g. RAM). If someone here has Micron, Sandisk, etc, in their portfolio enjoy the ride while it lasts :D Because something like this will happen eventually or data centers will become saturated at some point - https://research.google/blog/turboquant-redefining-ai-efficiency-with-extreme-compression/ | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17698 Posts
Progressive , AXIS Capital and Everest Group have all been bitten by pricing errors, reserving errors, or overly relying on certain risk-models. Its becoming high risk//high reward. | ||
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Sermokala
United States14160 Posts
Everyone is chasing the first mover advantage without having any idea what that advantage will be. They're building facilities that need odd amounts of water in drought areas where there isn't water. They need more power than is already being used by actual people. AI as a concept is toxic in human perception and is uncopyrightable. The productivity gains we see from AI can be done from desktop level computation, not data center supercomputers. | ||
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ETisME
12784 Posts
On June 09 2026 16:09 Sermokala wrote: AI isn't a bubble because of it bringing productivity gains or not its a bubble beacuse you have a dozen or more parties making massive buildouts of insane capital spends with no known path to profitability for any party. Everyone is chasing the first mover advantage without having any idea what that advantage will be. They're building facilities that need odd amounts of water in drought areas where there isn't water. They need more power than is already being used by actual people. AI as a concept is toxic in human perception and is uncopyrightable. The productivity gains we see from AI can be done from desktop level computation, not data center supercomputers. Look at anthropic insane growth. It's the fastest ARR growing company ever in history and is well on track to be profitable either this or next year. https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/anthropic-arr-growth-9b-to-44b-2026 And why complain about water and power, when desktop level computation will never be as efficient as data center, not to mention the infrastructure is easier to plan for. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17798 Posts
On June 09 2026 16:09 Sermokala wrote: AI isn't a bubble because of it bringing productivity gains or not its a bubble beacuse you have a dozen or more parties making massive buildouts of insane capital spends with no known path to profitability for any party. Everyone is chasing the first mover advantage without having any idea what that advantage will be. They're building facilities that need odd amounts of water in drought areas where there isn't water. They need more power than is already being used by actual people. AI as a concept is toxic in human perception and is uncopyrightable. The productivity gains we see from AI can be done from desktop level computation, not data center supercomputers. I am now forced to work with AI because my company has fallen victim to AI psychosis and I can tell you that there are no productivity gains if you're using it for anything else than generating copious amounts of text. As a senior software dev the best AI can do for me it seems is save me 30 min of googling sometimes but mostly just waste a lot of my time when I have to check if what it did to code is any good and most of the time it's not. Quite often what I have to do is either rewrite most of it or scrap it entirely because it's just code that's noise - there's plenty of it but ultimately it does nothing. On June 09 2026 16:20 ETisME wrote: Look at anthropic insane growth. It's the fastest ARR growing company ever in history and is well on track to be profitable either this or next year. https://www.mindstudio.ai/blog/anthropic-arr-growth-9b-to-44b-2026 And why complain about water and power, when desktop level computation will never be as efficient as data center, not to mention the infrastructure is easier to plan for. You know that the numbers Anthropic posts most likely aren't real, right? It probably won't have a profitable year until 2028 if ever (don't think it can last that long if it's not profitable). The amount of cyclical financing between AI companies is insane. https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle/ Also, the data centers they want to build will use up more water and electricity than a small city (each). And one thing that media typically don't touch on is heat generation... Edit: If they're all so great and profitable why not IPO under normal terms like everyone else? Where you have to actually show you're worth your salt and prove profitability? If it's such a golden unicorn that will be the future then why IPO at all and sell parts of what's going to get much bigger? Almost every part of this AI business looks and feels like one giant scam. And you know what they say - if it walks like a duck... | ||
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ETisME
12784 Posts
On June 09 2026 17:02 Manit0u wrote: I am now forced to work with AI because my company has fallen victim to AI psychosis and I can tell you that there are no productivity gains if you're using it for anything else than generating copious amounts of text. As a senior software dev the best AI can do for me it seems is save me 30 min of googling sometimes but mostly just waste a lot of my time when I have to check if what it did to code is any good and most of the time it's not. Quite often what I have to do is either rewrite most of it or scrap it entirely because it's just code that's noise - there's plenty of it but ultimately it does nothing. You know that the numbers Anthropic posts most likely aren't real, right? It probably won't have a profitable year until 2028 if ever (don't think it can last that long if it's not profitable). The amount of cyclical financing between AI companies is insane. https://www.wheresyoured.at/anthropics-profitability-swindle/ Also, the data centers they want to build will use up more water and electricity than a small city (each). And one thing that media typically don't touch on is heat generation... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lDc8NpU2c0 Edit: If they're all so great and profitable why not IPO under normal terms like everyone else? Where you have to actually show you're worth your salt and prove profitability? If it's such a golden unicorn that will be the future then why IPO at all and sell parts of what's going to get much bigger? Almost every part of this AI business looks and feels like one giant scam. And you know what they say - if it walks like a duck... IPO doesn't require a company to be profitable. You know that the numbers Anthropic posts most likely aren't real, right? > No? The amount of cyclical financing between AI companies is insane. > why's that surprising? They are building out infrastructure. They can lease out GPU computation power if they have excess GPUs and still make a profit. What does that tell you? There's a lot of demands, there's not enough supply to make token cheaper. The idea that the water/ energy cost is a major roadblock is like thinking cutting down trees for roads means car won't be popularised. Our entire design department (we are even a marketing agency) has shifted how they work by using AI to do mockups, before finalising with proper files for production. Hell we used 3D print years for sampling before 3D commercial machines. I think the average people just aren't aware how tech is being utilised. The idea that AI isn't going to shake things up, is really confusing. I don't see how anyone looking at what it can do now, including the significantly better assistant on the phone, isn't going to be used in almost every single part in life. You gotta know AI is already heavily used in both ukraine/russia and iran/US right now? | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17798 Posts
On June 09 2026 17:58 ETisME wrote: The idea that the water/ energy cost is a major roadblock is like thinking cutting down trees for roads means car won't be popularised. Our entire design department (we are even a marketing agency) has shifted how they work by using AI to do mockups, before finalising with proper files for production. Hell we used 3D print years for sampling before 3D commercial machines. I think the average people just aren't aware how tech is being utilised. The idea that AI isn't going to shake things up, is really confusing. I don't see how anyone looking at what it can do now, including the significantly better assistant on the phone, isn't going to be used in almost every single part in life. You gotta know AI is already heavily used in both ukraine/russia and iran/US right now? Water and energy are a roadblock because there's not enough of it. Good for you that AI is working for you, for me it does nothing (and I don't use assistant on the phone). With increasing costs of tokens companies are now re-hiring people and imposing limits to reduce the use of AI because it's cheaper to do those things with people than gamble on AI getting it right at some point. I'm not saying AI is completely useless. It'll find its niche applications as a tool in certain sectors but it won't be a global phenomenon that changes everything they market it to be. So far most of the adopters don't really see any returns on the investment, a lot of them are bailing out entirely and that's in the phase where Anthropic/Microsoft/OpenAI are losing money by taking the brunt of the token costs. Gotta love all those hype videos where some dev says he's never done so much work in his life and it only cost him $1.3m in a month in tokens... | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17698 Posts
On June 09 2026 19:19 Manit0u wrote: I'm not saying AI is completely useless. It'll find its niche applications as a tool in certain sectors but it won't be a global phenomenon that changes everything they market it to be. i made an xBase to C# compiler in 2009. AI still can't top it. Also, I have no idea what happened, but updates to Claude and ChatGPT made them worse for certain versions of Foxpro , Clipper, and Smalltalk. People who are not thoroughly testing are letting massive errors slip through. AI has allowed a couple of my customers to reduce the workload of their art departments. The MOST SUCCESSFUL in implementing AI is a media company that owns a couple of retail store chains. They've gone from 6 art department employees down to 4. My insurance customers are all hot to use AI to get rid of underwriters and adjudicators. It ain't workin'. My grandmother ran a medium sized medical lab in the 80s, 90s, and 00s with ~100 employees. She said they tried to do the same thing with Lab Equipment that they are doing with AI now. IOW, Automating everything to replace employees. It was all the rage because all hospital management wanted to do was get rid of employees. It never worked, but they kept trying for decades. Upper management did not care how much faulty lab work happened while they were on their quest of eliminating every employee. Right now, AI is not doing a very good job of out-right replacing people. Upper management will continue to attempt for MANY DECADES to replace people with AI no matter how much it fails. We've seen some massive fuckups so far.. they will keep coming and it won't stop the upper management people from continuing to try.. So back to my previous post... its high-risk//high-reward. | ||
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SC-Shield
Bulgaria871 Posts
On June 09 2026 19:19 Manit0u wrote: Water and energy are a roadblock because there's not enough of it. Good for you that AI is working for you, for me it does nothing (and I don't use assistant on the phone). With increasing costs of tokens companies are now re-hiring people and imposing limits to reduce the use of AI because it's cheaper to do those things with people than gamble on AI getting it right at some point. I'm not saying AI is completely useless. It'll find its niche applications as a tool in certain sectors but it won't be a global phenomenon that changes everything they market it to be. So far most of the adopters don't really see any returns on the investment, a lot of them are bailing out entirely and that's in the phase where Anthropic/Microsoft/OpenAI are losing money by taking the brunt of the token costs. Gotta love all those hype videos where some dev says he's never done so much work in his life and it only cost him $1.3m in a month in tokens... Where is this re-hiring going on? Only AI-generated YouTube videos? Because almost all of Big Tech is laying off right now - Meta, Amazon, Microsoft (voluntary employee buyout most recently), etc. I haven't heard much from Google and Apple, but Apple doesn't seem to invest much in AI anyway. There are IT professionals who can't find a job for more than 6 months currently, be it AI, economy or whatever. Just open LinkedIn. I use AI at work and it does the job most of the time, but of course you should review what it generates as it sometimes makes mistakes. Maybe work on prompts, try to define requirements more specifically so it's clear what is required so control is on you instead of AI to come up with the plan or implementation? Link: https://layoffs.fyi/ + Show Spoiler + ![[image loading]](https://i.postimg.cc/SQzxSk2Z/Screenshot-2026-06-09-224709.png) | ||
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ETisME
12784 Posts
On June 09 2026 19:19 Manit0u wrote: Water and energy are a roadblock because there's not enough of it. Good for you that AI is working for you, for me it does nothing (and I don't use assistant on the phone). With increasing costs of tokens companies are now re-hiring people and imposing limits to reduce the use of AI because it's cheaper to do those things with people than gamble on AI getting it right at some point. I'm not saying AI is completely useless. It'll find its niche applications as a tool in certain sectors but it won't be a global phenomenon that changes everything they market it to be. So far most of the adopters don't really see any returns on the investment, a lot of them are bailing out entirely and that's in the phase where Anthropic/Microsoft/OpenAI are losing money by taking the brunt of the token costs. Gotta love all those hype videos where some dev says he's never done so much work in his life and it only cost him $1.3m in a month in tokens... It's certainly not a niche. You are the minority here, what sectors are you in? Or rather, what department are you in? I mean even robotics are relying on AI, self driving cars rely on AI, warfare relies on AI, your mobile photos are being optimised through AI. You don't think we would get to the point where basic infrastructures like traffic would use AI for optimisation? And ouch, you don't even use assistant on the phone? Do you still manually type up your search and then go through each links to get your information? Your so called roadblocks are not going to stop China developing their own AI as well. It's coming one way or another. | ||
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JimmyJRaynor
Canada17698 Posts
On June 10 2026 11:38 ETisME wrote: Your so called roadblocks are not going to stop China developing their own AI as well. It's coming one way or another. it is already here and for stuff like insurance underwriting support its been around a while. AION by Computer Associates was around in 1995. "assistance" is not enough for the pinheads at the apex of the power pyramid though. they want total elimination of underwriting as a job activity. They want underwriters replaced the way cars replaced horses. it won't happen.. but they will spend gobs of money and totally butcher many underwriting departments in the process. The key is to be there after the department is FUBAR-ed ... with your solution. | ||
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Manit0u
Poland17798 Posts
On June 10 2026 11:38 ETisME wrote: And ouch, you don't even use assistant on the phone? Do you still manually type up your search and then go through each links to get your information? Your so called roadblocks are not going to stop China developing their own AI as well. It's coming one way or another. I do in fact type in my search and check the links because unlike most people I want to know the source of the information I am given. China will face the same roadblocks as everyone else. They're not self-reliant in terms of energy even now and have water shortages. Where do you think are they going to find extra gigawatts and hectares of water for cooling? On June 10 2026 04:44 SC-Shield wrote: Where is this re-hiring going on? Only AI-generated YouTube videos? Because almost all of Big Tech is laying off right now - Meta, Amazon, Microsoft (voluntary employee buyout most recently), etc. I haven't heard much from Google and Apple, but Apple doesn't seem to invest much in AI anyway. There are IT professionals who can't find a job for more than 6 months currently, be it AI, economy or whatever. Just open LinkedIn. https://www.inc.com/bruce-crumley/new-report-says-ai-layoffs-are-backfiring-and-half-of-companies-will-start-rehiring/91297210 https://www.captechu.edu/blog/ai-and-job-replacement-new-study-finds-surprising-correlations https://www.forbes.com/sites/terdawn-deboe/2026/05/21/companies-fired-workers-for-ai-now-they-want-them-back/ After sounding out a selection of its business customers, Gartner experts predicted 50 percent of responding companies “that attributed headcount reduction to AI will rehire staff to perform similar functions” by 2027. Although Gartner said those firms are likely to bring cut staffers back “under different job titles,” the anticipated backtracking won’t be fooling anyone. AI-related workforce reductions have been based primarily on the idea that fewer workers equal lower costs, which means better financial returns. A Gartner study of 350 global executives at companies with at least $1 billion in annual revenue suggests that this formula is not, in fact, working. While 80% of those companies who had piloted AI reported workforce reductions, there was no meaningful correlation between those cuts and higher ROI. Gartner found that workforce reduction rates were nearly equal between high- and low-ROI companies, meaning layoffs alone explained almost nothing about financial performance. The company first announces it is going to use an AI to do a job. The staff is downsized. Then six to twelve months pass and the AI has successfully managed 60% of the job duties, while unable to complete the remaining 40%, so the company hires the original staff members back. This gap in performance is real. Robert Half reported that a total of 29% of those organizations which cut employees due to an AI related reduction had already rehired into the positions they cut. According to Forrester, 55% of executive decision makers who replaced their employees using AI will regret the decision within 18 months. I get 1-2 new job offers on LinkedIn almost every week. | ||
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