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Now that we have a new thread, in order to ensure that this thread continues to meet TL standards and follows the proper guidelines, we will be enforcing the rules in the OP more strictly. Be sure to give them a complete and thorough read before posting! NOTE: When providing a source, please provide a very brief summary on what it's about and what purpose it adds to the discussion. The supporting statement should clearly explain why the subject is relevant and needs to be discussed. Please follow this rule especially for tweets.
Your supporting statement should always come BEFORE you provide the source.If you have any questions, comments, concern, or feedback regarding the USPMT, then please use this thread: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/website-feedback/510156-us-politics-thread |
Take anything on RCP that seems to be bad news for liberals or good news for conservatives with a at least a grain of salt. They've been becoming increasingly overt about how far right they lean, and they've been doing stuff, like their fact checker "check," to weaken trust in left leaning publications.
Hell, yesterday they published an article on RealClearInvestigations with the headline "2016 Trump Tower Meeting Looks Increasingly Like a Setup by Russian and Clinton Operatives."
That being said, Democrats had a really bad Senate map this year (there's not a lot of Republicans up for reelection in the first place), so that's probably accurate. Their House map, in the mean time, currently has Democrats up 4 seats in solid districts, and 39 of the 41 tossup seats are currently held by Republicans, so there is potential for a blue wave in the house.
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The potential loss of a single senate seat has to be considered alongside the fact that this cycle is simply unfavorable to Dems given the vacancies and contests at issue. The House, just be virtue of it having far more seats and its relation to geographic districts, is where dynamics like a wave are more likely to manifest.
Folks should also not forget governors races, both Ohio and Michigan could swing entirely blue in terms of state executives, for example.
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On August 15 2018 01:48 farvacola wrote:
The potential loss of a single senate seat has to be considered alongside the fact that this cycle is simply unfavorable to Dems given the vacancies and contests at issue. The House, just be virtue of it having far more seats and its relation to geographic districts, is where dynamics like a wave are more likely to manifest.
Folks should also not forget governors races, both Ohio and Michigan could swing entirely blue in terms of state executives, for example.
Since you live in Ohio (I think) and likely have more access to news over there than others, could you describe the situation there?
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I live right on the border of Ohio and Michigan and have strong ties to both, so I'm following what goes on in each pretty closely. The Ohio governor's race is Dem Richard Cordray, former head of the CFPB and former Ohio AG, versus Repub Mike DeWine, the current Ohio AG and former US senator. The race is quite close and at this point it's anyone's game, but I think Cordray will benefit from collateral momentum relating to Sherrod Brown's very strong Senate campaign and the almost victory of O'Brien in the recent special election.
Michigan has Dem Gretchen Whitmer, a former prosecutor and state senator, up against Repub Bill Schuette, the outgoing Michigan AG. Whitmer is polling well and she appears poised to embrace her recently defeated primary challenger Abdul El-Sayed and his policies. If she navigates that interparty minefield, she should cruise to the governor's house given all of Schuette's Flint and related shit-tier AG performance baggage.
In both states, the specter of Trump is definitely in play, only many who thought they'd benefit from his presidency have not seen that come to pass.
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Hello Team Liquid US Politics Thread,
I am Mohdoo and I am here to give my thoughts on a recent development at the DNC. The black caucus chairman is currently OPPOSED to efforts to reduce the influence of superdelegates. I will now be offering a quote from a popular political news website on the internet. It is known as www.politico.com.
Here comes the quote:
In a letter to DNC Chairman Tom Perez, Richmond (D-La.) said the proposal would “disenfranchise elected officials” who serve as superdelegates.
“There should be enough room in the process to include the perspective of local party activists and officials, and Members of Congress,” Richmond wrote. “One group should not be harmed at the expense of the other.”
He added, “to add insult to injury, it appears that this is a solution in search of a problem. Unelected delegates have never gone against the will of primary voters in picking Democratic presidential nominees.”
The above quote is taken from the following website on the world wide web: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/14/dnc-super-delegates-cedric-richmond-776345
People of Team Liquid's general forum currently choosing to view the US politics megathread,
I am now offering my view on this matter below, in BOLD for the sake of transparency, also included within a spoiler:
+ Show Spoiler +The idea of these elected officials complaining about having their influence reduced is infuriating. THAT. IS. THE. POINT. Citing the fact that they have never gone against the will of the voters is also completely insane. If anything, that shows that they never mattered. But how could they have still mattered? By creating a sense of inevitability with their voice. They want to be distinguished and important. They want to know they are commanding the troops. They are letting their massive egos get the better of them. They are so far gone they can't even hear what they are saying.
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Can they just release the Trump ni**er tapes already? WH just said they cant guarantee there are no tapes which is double speak for "Of course they exist... do you know nothing about Trump?" Just release them so his supporters can end the current farce and move from "he isnt racist" to "it's ok that he is racist because he does things we like" (or alternatively I've seen "everyone says those things in anger occasionally ").
P.S. lol @ Mohdoo. I was thinking of using the same format from now on but that is too annoying on a phone.
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On August 15 2018 04:19 On_Slaught wrote:
Can they just release the Trump ni**er tapes already? WH just said they cant guarantee there are no tapes which is double speak for "Of course they exist... do you know nothing about Trump?" Just release them so his supporters can end the current farce and move from "he isnt racist" to "it's ok that he is racist because he does things we like" (or alternatively I've seen "everyone says those things in anger occasionally ").
P.S. lol @ Mohdoo. I was thinking of using the same format from now on but that is too annoying on a phone.
If they show up the response will 100% be that he didn't mean it in a racist manner or that 'everyone' did it back then.
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On August 15 2018 04:19 On_Slaught wrote:
Can they just release the Trump ni**er tapes already? WH just said they cant guarantee there are no tapes which is double speak for "Of course they exist... do you know nothing about Trump?" Just release them so his supporters can end the current farce and move from "he isnt racist" to "it's ok that he is racist because he does things we like" (or alternatively I've seen "everyone says those things in anger occasionally ").
P.S. lol @ Mohdoo. I was thinking of using the same format from now on but that is too annoying on a phone.
Honestly I think if they owned them they might*, they've really gone all-in on the "admit and downplay things" train lately. But the tapes are probably owned by Burnett and/or the network, who don't really want to, and Trump has about as much power over them as he does the NFL players kneeling.
Trump himself doesn't seem to do much taping. It's not really in the pathological liar playbook (or, if you prefer to believe in 4-D chess Trump, the reality destabilization/post-modernist playbook). He's a tape-ee, not a tape-er.
*Assuming they thought other people had access to their contents
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On August 15 2018 04:19 On_Slaught wrote:
Can they just release the Trump ni**er tapes already? WH just said they cant guarantee there are no tapes which is double speak for "Of course they exist... do you know nothing about Trump?" Just release them so his supporters can end the current farce and move from "he isnt racist" to "it's ok that he is racist because he does things we like" (or alternatively I've seen "everyone says those things in anger occasionally ").
P.S. lol @ Mohdoo. I was thinking of using the same format from now on but that is too annoying on a phone.
I gotta say that i find the new format where people are scared to post links to the thing they are talking about, so instead they just talk about it and i have no idea what it is they talk about more annoying than the random tweet posts. It means that i have to take people even more at face value, because now there is not even a hint of the source of the stuff they are talking about.
"We can't guarantee that tapes like that exist" is really funny. Because that clearly states that even if there are no tapes, that is not because he didn't say anything like that, but because it wasn't taped. Because if he never says stuff like that, it should be easy to guarantee that those tapes don't exist.
However, none of this stuff is really surprising to me. That is what you get when you elect such an obviously unfit person. Still weird that a large part of america thought that that would be a good idea.
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On August 15 2018 03:49 Mohdoo wrote:Hello Team Liquid US Politics Thread, I am Mohdoo and I am here to give my thoughts on a recent development at the DNC. The black caucus chairman is currently OPPOSED to efforts to reduce the influence of superdelegates. I will now be offering a quote from a popular political news website on the internet. It is known as www.politico.com. Here comes the quote: Show nested quote +
In a letter to DNC Chairman Tom Perez, Richmond (D-La.) said the proposal would “disenfranchise elected officials” who serve as superdelegates.
“There should be enough room in the process to include the perspective of local party activists and officials, and Members of Congress,” Richmond wrote. “One group should not be harmed at the expense of the other.”
He added, “to add insult to injury, it appears that this is a solution in search of a problem. Unelected delegates have never gone against the will of primary voters in picking Democratic presidential nominees.”
The above quote is taken from the following website on the world wide web: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/14/dnc-super-delegates-cedric-richmond-776345People of Team Liquid's general forum currently choosing to view the US politics megathread, I am now offering my view on this matter below, in BOLD for the sake of transparency, also included within a spoiler: + Show Spoiler +The idea of these elected officials complaining about having their influence reduced is infuriating. THAT. IS. THE. POINT. Citing the fact that they have never gone against the will of the voters is also completely insane. If anything, that shows that they never mattered. But how could they have still mattered? By creating a sense of inevitability with their voice. They want to be distinguished and important. They want to know they are commanding the troops. They are letting their massive egos get the better of them. They are so far gone they can't even hear what they are saying.
there are other ways they could've mattered, theoretically. like using their power to stop a horribly unfit Trump level demagogue.
besides, people complain about all sorts of stuff. and people complaining about losing any amount fo their own power should practically be a given.
it's not like primary voters are inherently better (or worse) at selecting candidates; people can use whatever system they want to use.
while you're complaining about him, you don't seem to be doing too much to address his actual arguments, or really sift through the reasons pro/con.
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5930 Posts
On August 15 2018 01:39 IyMoon wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2018 01:35 farvacola wrote:
The senate was always out of reach, the House is where the focus should be. Being out of reach, and losing seats are different things though arent they? I would thinking going even on the senate is one thing, but to drop a seat strikes me as a bad sign
The Senate was always going to be a problem because of the map. It’s kind of a horrible take to ignore just how bad the Senate map is for the Dems.
The Dem senators at most risk are in deep red states like North Dakota and Missouri plus Bill Nelson, who just isn’t very good at campaigning. The only two Republican seats that have a good chance of falling into Dems hands are Nevada (Heller who suicided when he voted for the ACA repeal) and Arizona (Flake who is retiring and the Rep replacements are kind of weak). The next likely pickup is Ted Cruz’s seat in Texas and you absolutely cannot say Beto isn’t trying his heart out...the state might just be too red for Beto to win.
The fortunate thing for the Dem are that Heitkamp and McCaskill play their states well and have a good ability to draw weaker opponents. The biggest worry right now would probably be Bill Nelson who is just kind of bad. Simple arithmetic would suggest Dems losing one seat to be a decent possibility because there’s three Dem seats and two Rep seats at immediate risk.
If Beto unseats Cruz, there's going to be an apocalyptic meltdown in the Republican Party because Cruz shouldn't lose in Texas. They might as well impeach Trump the next day if Cruz loses because life isn't going to get any better for them. It cannot be emphasised how bad the Senate map is for the Dems that Cruz's seat is the third most vulnerable Rep seat. Its a state-wide election, Beto can't win the state with just Austin/Houston/San Antonio.
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The next most likely after AZ and NV is probably Tennessee. Bredesen is an extremely popular former governor and is running neck in neck/ slightly ahead, if Blackburn has a gaffe she could throw the race. While to some extent Bredesen may benefit from the race staying out of the media spotlight, it does bother me a bit how the race is being overlooked.
I'm not really sold on Texas. Beto is trying his heart out and doing a lot of things right... but I don't believe he can do it. Texas is so big that it takes hundreds of thousands of votes to move the needle. And if that seat were truly in trouble, you'd see Republicans pulling out all the stops. Maybe in a couple more election cycles. I wouldn't mind being proven wrong though.
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On August 15 2018 04:28 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2018 04:19 On_Slaught wrote:
Can they just release the Trump ni**er tapes already? WH just said they cant guarantee there are no tapes which is double speak for "Of course they exist... do you know nothing about Trump?" Just release them so his supporters can end the current farce and move from "he isnt racist" to "it's ok that he is racist because he does things we like" (or alternatively I've seen "everyone says those things in anger occasionally ").
P.S. lol @ Mohdoo. I was thinking of using the same format from now on but that is too annoying on a phone. I gotta say that i find the new format where people are scared to post links to the thing they are talking about, so instead they just talk about it and i have no idea what it is they talk about more annoying than the random tweet posts. It means that i have to take people even more at face value, because now there is not even a hint of the source of the stuff they are talking about. "We can't guarantee that tapes like that exist" is really funny. Because that clearly states that even if there are no tapes, that is not because he didn't say anything like that, but because it wasn't taped. Because if he never says stuff like that, it should be easy to guarantee that those tapes don't exist. However, none of this stuff is really surprising to me. That is what you get when you elect such an obviously unfit person. Still weird that a large part of america thought that that would be a good idea.
I'm not sure why you think it's weird. The Republican party has been about convincing people that terrible ideas are good ones for years. Trickle down economics, for example.
But since Trump, it might be more accurate to say that Republicans have a completely different idea of what makes a person fit or unfit for public office. In Missouri, the GOP primary for a state house seat just went by a 25 point margin to the guy who said "Hitler was right," and thinks fluoride in the water supply is poisoning people.
Just part of the same thought process that nominated Roy Moore for Senate and Trump for president.
Picking people who the rest of the "Western" world think of as being obviously unfit seems to be a feature of the Republican party, not a bug.
Some articles about that guy's victory:
+ Show Spoiler +On his Monday morning radio show, Steve West promotes fanatical conspiracies about “Jewish cabals” that are “harvesting baby parts” through Planned Parenthood, that torture and molest children and that run the Republican Party.
On Tuesday he won the Republican primary for a Clay County seat in the Missouri House by nearly 25 points.
“Looking back in history, unfortunately, Hitler was right about what was taking place in Germany. And who was behind it,” West said on a show on KCXL radio on Jan. 23, 2017.
West won the 15th District nomination in a four-candidate race. www.kansascity.comHis platform, his campaign site says, includes six issues: 1) “Islam is a problem for America.” 2) Education reform. His explanation of that issue notes that “Oak Park High School recently had a transgender homecoming queen! A proud 1st in the country for the North Kansas City School District.” 3) Anti-pornography. 4) Vaccines should be optional. 5) We’re being poisoned by the fluoride in our water supply and 6) Welfare recipients should be banned from casinos www.kansascity.com
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On August 15 2018 01:45 Kyadytim wrote:Take anything on RCP that seems to be bad news for liberals or good news for conservatives with a at least a grain of salt. They've been becoming increasingly overt about how far right they lean, and they've been doing stuff, like their fact checker "check," to weaken trust in left leaning publications. Hell, yesterday they published an article on RealClearInvestigations with the headline "2016 Trump Tower Meeting Looks Increasingly Like a Setup by Russian and Clinton Operatives."That being said, Democrats had a really bad Senate map this year (there's not a lot of Republicans up for reelection in the first place), so that's probably accurate. Their House map, in the mean time, currently has Democrats up 4 seats in solid districts, and 39 of the 41 tossup seats are currently held by Republicans, so there is potential for a blue wave in the house.
The theory that the Trump Tower meeting was a sting is not entirely kooky. Glenn Simpson, the founder of GPS, was working with both Steele (author of the dossier) and the Russian lawyer who met with Don Jr et al at the Trump Tower meeting. In other words Simpson was doing oppo research on Trump, utilizing Steel's Russian sources, while at the same time doing lobbying work for the Russian government (through that Russian lawyer). On the day before the Trump Tower meeting and the day of, Simpson had dinner with the Russian lawyer who attended. It actually starts to sound like a movie plot once you gather all the facts. But for it to be a sting, you'd have to believe that Simpson orchestrated all of the contact that resulted in the email with Trump Jr setting up the meeting, and Simpson had in his hands the email from Don Jr demonstrating willingness to collude but then did nothing further with that info (the Trump Tower meeting didn't become part of the dossier or anything even though it very well could have been included if it was all a sting).
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On August 15 2018 09:25 Doodsmack wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2018 01:45 Kyadytim wrote:Take anything on RCP that seems to be bad news for liberals or good news for conservatives with a at least a grain of salt. They've been becoming increasingly overt about how far right they lean, and they've been doing stuff, like their fact checker "check," to weaken trust in left leaning publications. Hell, yesterday they published an article on RealClearInvestigations with the headline "2016 Trump Tower Meeting Looks Increasingly Like a Setup by Russian and Clinton Operatives."That being said, Democrats had a really bad Senate map this year (there's not a lot of Republicans up for reelection in the first place), so that's probably accurate. Their House map, in the mean time, currently has Democrats up 4 seats in solid districts, and 39 of the 41 tossup seats are currently held by Republicans, so there is potential for a blue wave in the house. The theory that the Trump Tower meeting was a sting is not entirely kooky. Glenn Simpson, the founder of GPS, was working with both Steele (author of the dossier) and the Russian lawyer who met with Don Jr et al at the Trump Tower meeting. In other words Simpson was doing oppo research on Trump, utilizing Steel's Russian sources, while at the same time doing lobbying work for the Russian government (through that Russian lawyer). On the day before the Trump Tower meeting and the day of, Simpson had dinner with the Russian lawyer who attended. It actually starts to sound like a movie plot once you gather all the facts. But for it to be a sting, you'd have to believe that Simpson orchestrated all of the contact that resulted in the email with Trump Jr setting up the meeting, and Simpson had in his hands the email from Don Jr demonstrating willingness to collude but then did nothing further with that info (the Trump Tower meeting didn't become part of the dossier or anything even though it very well could have been included if it was all a sting).
I can look at all that and employ a hefty suspension of disbelief, and say "Sure, this movie isn't total shit. At least it's trying something." However, it would also imply that Hillary willingly let Russia hack her rule breaking email setup, or fabricated the whole thing, and let herself get investigated by the FBI for it for there to be anything for Russia to want to meet Trump about in the first place.
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Primary turnout way up in a lot of precincts in Minnesota.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
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On August 15 2018 09:33 Gahlo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2018 09:25 Doodsmack wrote:On August 15 2018 01:45 Kyadytim wrote:Take anything on RCP that seems to be bad news for liberals or good news for conservatives with a at least a grain of salt. They've been becoming increasingly overt about how far right they lean, and they've been doing stuff, like their fact checker "check," to weaken trust in left leaning publications. Hell, yesterday they published an article on RealClearInvestigations with the headline "2016 Trump Tower Meeting Looks Increasingly Like a Setup by Russian and Clinton Operatives."That being said, Democrats had a really bad Senate map this year (there's not a lot of Republicans up for reelection in the first place), so that's probably accurate. Their House map, in the mean time, currently has Democrats up 4 seats in solid districts, and 39 of the 41 tossup seats are currently held by Republicans, so there is potential for a blue wave in the house. The theory that the Trump Tower meeting was a sting is not entirely kooky. Glenn Simpson, the founder of GPS, was working with both Steele (author of the dossier) and the Russian lawyer who met with Don Jr et al at the Trump Tower meeting. In other words Simpson was doing oppo research on Trump, utilizing Steel's Russian sources, while at the same time doing lobbying work for the Russian government (through that Russian lawyer). On the day before the Trump Tower meeting and the day of, Simpson had dinner with the Russian lawyer who attended. It actually starts to sound like a movie plot once you gather all the facts. But for it to be a sting, you'd have to believe that Simpson orchestrated all of the contact that resulted in the email with Trump Jr setting up the meeting, and Simpson had in his hands the email from Don Jr demonstrating willingness to collude but then did nothing further with that info (the Trump Tower meeting didn't become part of the dossier or anything even though it very well could have been included if it was all a sting). I can look at all that and employ a hefty suspension of disbelief, and say "Sure, this movie isn't total shit. At least it's trying something." However, it would also imply that Hillary willingly let Russia hack her rule breaking email setup, or fabricated the whole thing, and let herself get investigated by the FBI for it for there to be anything for Russia to want to meet Trump about in the first place.
Sure, it's superficially plausible, like any good conspiracy theory. My favorite part of this conspiracy theory would be the explanations for why, despite Clinton having full knowledge of this potentially criminal meeting she'd set up, didn't publicize it in late October 2016.
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On August 15 2018 09:40 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Primary turnout way up in a lot of precincts in Minnesota.
Will be interesting to see what happens.
Keith Ellison is running away with it in his election. I'm not surprised hes winning but I'm surprised its callable at this stage.
Ilhan Omar looking in the lead in the 5th. If she wins this it'll mean that the first woman muslim in congress will be a tie.
Stauber in the 8th represents a realistic chance for the republicans to take a seat from democrats. Stauber has fund-raised a ton and is a rabid trump supporter.
Interesting race to watch nationally is The GOP governor primary. Tim pawlenty has distanced himself from trump while Jeff johnson is sticking with trump. Its neck and neck right now but it'll be an important marker for the presidential in two years.
And beacuse I can Amy klobishar is repping 96% of the votes in her primary. Thats incredible.
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On August 15 2018 04:28 Simberto wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2018 04:19 On_Slaught wrote:
Can they just release the Trump ni**er tapes already? WH just said they cant guarantee there are no tapes which is double speak for "Of course they exist... do you know nothing about Trump?" Just release them so his supporters can end the current farce and move from "he isnt racist" to "it's ok that he is racist because he does things we like" (or alternatively I've seen "everyone says those things in anger occasionally ").
P.S. lol @ Mohdoo. I was thinking of using the same format from now on but that is too annoying on a phone. I gotta say that i find the new format where people are scared to post links to the thing they are talking about, so instead they just talk about it and i have no idea what it is they talk about more annoying than the random tweet posts. It means that i have to take people even more at face value, because now there is not even a hint of the source of the stuff they are talking about. "We can't guarantee that tapes like that exist" is really funny. Because that clearly states that even if there are no tapes, that is not because he didn't say anything like that, but because it wasn't taped. Because if he never says stuff like that, it should be easy to guarantee that those tapes don't exist. However, none of this stuff is really surprising to me. That is what you get when you elect such an obviously unfit person. Still weird that a large part of america thought that that would be a good idea.
More than that, he's getting lionised as one of the best Republican Presidents ever. Already. Better than the last two.
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On August 15 2018 11:27 Sermokala wrote:Show nested quote +On August 15 2018 09:40 Stratos_speAr wrote:
Primary turnout way up in a lot of precincts in Minnesota.
Will be interesting to see what happens. Keith Ellison is running away with it in his election. I'm not surprised hes winning but I'm surprised its callable at this stage. Ilhan Omar looking in the lead in the 5th. If she wins this it'll mean that the first woman muslim in congress will be a tie. Stauber in the 8th represents a realistic chance for the republicans to take a seat from democrats. Stauber has fund-raised a ton and is a rabid trump supporter. Interesting race to watch nationally is The GOP governor primary. Tim pawlenty has distanced himself from trump while Jeff johnson is sticking with trump. Its neck and neck right now but it'll be an important marker for the presidential in two years. And beacuse I can Amy klobishar is repping 96% of the votes in her primary. Thats incredible.
Johnson sticking with Trump is going to tank his chances in the actual election. Trump isn't exactly popular here. I just don't see how a Republican is going to win the governor's seat anytime soon in MN.
As for anyone trying to trivialize a blue wave for November, Democratic turnout in the primaries crushed Republican turnout yesterday. Several records were set for primary turnout overall.
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EPT
