On September 27 2026 06:34 oBlade wrote:Show nested quote +On September 27 2026 04:19 Billyboy wrote:
Trump rejected the latest Iranian proposal, saying “they’re in no rush”. So expect fuel prices to continue to rise, especially diesel .
You know what they say, the hardest part of a 3 day war is the first couple of years.
This is going to be hard for you to understand but for 2 reasons the proposal you refer to is a non-starter.
1) Iran's president and foreign minister's idea of a 7 day truce at the UN is not something they actually have the power to sign on to. The Iranian power players are not one big happy family all working together, and even if they were, the president would not be the one at the top. This is not a western democracy. The top guy is allegedly the Supreme Leader (who hasn't been seen for months), but in any case however fractured "Iran" is, the proposal is empty nonsense. The people who proposed it can't speak for or control the people who'd have to do it. It's a fishing expedition, or if anything a hail mary.
2) Their proposal was "end the blockade and we open the Strait." Even if 1) didn't apply, that's a joke.
They don't control the Strait.
13-14 million barrels are moving daily on the south route. Nothing is going on the north route, and nothing wants to go except Iranian oil.
In addition to Hormuz flows,
something like 4 million barrels daily of Saudi stuff is still going via bypass, which goes out from the Red Sea. That I can tell. (That peaked at like 7 million in the crunch.)
The pre-war traffic of Hormuz averaged ~20 million barrels a day.
What's missing? The product that isn't getting out is Iranian. That's good. Now, the fact Iranian oil can't move does raise the demand and therefore contribute to the price of crude when people like China can't buy it, but it's good. That particular supply hole in the market exists but it's not growing any bigger.
The other hole in the market is diesel tankers don't want to go to the Gulf because they realized Iran is fucking crazy. And they realized that after "Iran" randomly struck the refineries and infrastructure of neighboring countries that put out diesel. (Yeah the country where striking their desalination plants would be a "war crime" did that. Blame them. Remember this is so they can never strike worse, especially with nuclear weapons.) Diesel is still spiking over gas because it has lower elasticity. Opening the Strait to Iranian crude wouldn't mend the diesel issues. It's just a matter of time to reopen diesel infrastructure and convince remaining countries to stop blowing each other's refineries up.
EPT
