General Discussion - Page 4477

On December 06 2013 06:10 devilesk wrote:


My problem isn't with what variables he's taking into account. My problem is with the question his model is trying to answer and how I don't see how it's even good for basing a rating system off of.

So he's trying to classify games as in pro bracket or non pro bracket. Suppose he can actually do this perfectly, taking into account every stat imaginable. So now I can tell you that 0 out of your 500 games were played at a "pro level". What good is that metric, especially if 90% of everyone else has the same result? Even if the two brackets were distributed evenly, so then 250 out of your 500 games were played at a "pro level" how do you create a rating out of that?

Since Valve MM matches people based on a continous scale, there's more than just "pro" and "normal" bracket. I can say things like this match in the 99th percentile of matches based on the average Elo in the game, or it was played at the 5th percentile. The only thing you can do with the metric this guy is measuring is say, this match was played in "pro bracket" or this match was played in "normal bracket"

On December 06 2013 06:15 hariooo wrote:


I'll give you a really simplistic example of how this can work. Let's say you flip a coin. Heads is "pro" bracket. Tails is the opposite. If you flip this coin many times and find that 80% of these flips are heads versus the 40% heads that your friend is flipping, this is something you can compare. Many people can do this and the distribution of what percentage heads you get will form a continuous distribution even though you originally started with only two possibilities. So suddenly you can start matchmaking your 80% against other people with close to 80% ratios.