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General Discussion - Page 4470

Forum Index > Dota 2 General
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IRC chatter should remain in IRC - http://webchat.quakenet.org/?channels=tl.dota2

Posts that relate to topics with their own thread, such as in News, Tournaments or Strategy should go in those threads.
-Celestial-
Profile Joined September 2011
United Kingdom3867 Posts
December 05 2013 13:32 GMT
#89381
On December 05 2013 22:07 nojok wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 05 2013 21:25 Belisarius wrote:
He doesn't need to make the algorithm public.

All that will do is cause a million loud, uninformed people to make silly counterarguments. He's obviously using some fairly arcane statistical methods that the average dota player won't understand. Of course, doing something complicated doesn't automatically make him correct, but it does mean that 99.9% of his audience isn't qualified to have an opinion based on the methodology, so releasing it is irrelevant for most of us.

What we are qualified to have an opinion on is whether it makes sense in terms of results. If he really wants to prove himself, he should walk through some cases where he demonstrates his predictions and outcomes, and make sure the cases include some smurfs and high-disparity stacks. That's the kind of information that a layman audience can actually process.

Personally I think this whole thing is a scam to get Yango to blow his 20k by banning everyone for surreptitiously discussing ranked ladders.

Yango is cheating, he has created a new account despite that it's forbidden. It's called notyango.


That can't be Yango. Its there there in the name!
"Protoss simultaneously feels unbeatably strong and unwinnably weak." - kcdc
Steveling
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Greece10806 Posts
December 05 2013 13:36 GMT
#89382
Fed 6 rares to the mythical augment recipe, got the message that I crafted a mythical sven sword but it's not in the inventory. Damn you Gaben!
My dick has shrunk to the point where it looks like I have 3 balls.
dfs
Profile Blog Joined June 2010
Russian Federation4050 Posts
December 05 2013 13:37 GMT
#89383
On December 05 2013 22:36 Steveling wrote:
Fed 6 rares to the mythical augment recipe, got the message that I crafted a mythical sven sword but it's not in the inventory. Damn you Gaben!

QQ thread is next door, friend.
Writerhttp://i.imgur.com/Q1jSb9X.jpg (c) Shiro; http://i.imgur.com/lSDLLKb.png (c) drav
Kirsed
Profile Joined May 2013
9381 Posts
December 05 2013 14:13 GMT
#89384
Maybe his 20k post can be a ban appeal :p
Laurens
Profile Joined September 2010
Belgium4558 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-05 14:27:31
December 05 2013 14:27 GMT
#89385
What if his 20k post is in the LoL subforum instead of ours, how devastating would that be?!?
Autotroph
Profile Joined September 2010
United Kingdom940 Posts
December 05 2013 15:08 GMT
#89386
On December 05 2013 23:27 Laurens wrote:
What if his 20k post is in the LoL subforum instead of ours, how devastating would that be?!?


Then it really would be the superior moba
textbookcovers.tumblr.com
Zealos
Profile Blog Joined November 2011
United Kingdom3576 Posts
December 05 2013 15:29 GMT
#89387
On December 06 2013 00:08 Autotroph wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 05 2013 23:27 Laurens wrote:
What if his 20k post is in the LoL subforum instead of ours, how devastating would that be?!?


Then it really would be the superior moba

They haf a rating system after all
On the internet if you disagree with or dislike something you're angry and taking it too seriously. == Join TLMafia !
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
December 05 2013 15:38 GMT
#89388
Why are the last infinite pages full of spam from some guy who claims to have a statistics background defending a rating which fluctuates SO WILDLY it can't honestly claim any confidence interval at all?
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
solidbebe
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Netherlands4921 Posts
December 05 2013 15:45 GMT
#89389
On December 06 2013 00:38 Sn0_Man wrote:
Why are the last infinite pages full of spam from some guy who claims to have a statistics background defending a rating which fluctuates SO WILDLY it can't honestly claim any confidence interval at all?

Because it's his rating?

That's my guess anyway.
That's the 2nd time in a week I've seen someone sig a quote from this GD and I have never witnessed a sig quote happen in my TL history ever before. -Najda
BurningSera
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
Ireland19621 Posts
December 05 2013 15:47 GMT
#89390
On December 06 2013 00:38 Sn0_Man wrote:
Why are the last infinite pages full of spam from some guy who claims to have a statistics background defending a rating which fluctuates SO WILDLY it can't honestly claim any confidence interval at all?


i was stuck at home by the horrible weather this morning.

speaking of which, i miss -weatherrain.
is 2017, stop being lame, fuck's sakes. 'Can't wait for the rise of the cakes and humanity's last stand tbqh.'
Unleashing
Profile Joined March 2011
Denmark14978 Posts
December 05 2013 15:50 GMT
#89391
-water red
Best command, river of blood.
From the Ghastly Eyrie I can see to the ends of the world, and from this vantage point I declare with utter certainty that this one is in the bag!
Qbek
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Poland12923 Posts
December 05 2013 15:58 GMT
#89392
-water 0 0 0 for superior gaming experience, -weathersnow to troll people into using it, it was so bad
This space left intentionally dank /)3(\ http://i.imgur.com/RmeEUcF.png
Steveling
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Greece10806 Posts
December 05 2013 15:59 GMT
#89393
-water 34 45 170
for hipsters
My dick has shrunk to the point where it looks like I have 3 balls.
Steveling
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
Greece10806 Posts
December 05 2013 15:59 GMT
#89394
HB qbek, you are my favorite polish person. I think.
My dick has shrunk to the point where it looks like I have 3 balls.
Qbek
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
Poland12923 Posts
December 05 2013 16:01 GMT
#89395
On December 06 2013 00:59 Steveling wrote:
HB qbek, you are my favorite polish person. I think.

Same for you, you technically inept Greek
This space left intentionally dank /)3(\ http://i.imgur.com/RmeEUcF.png
hariooo
Profile Joined October 2013
Canada2830 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-12-05 16:06:23
December 05 2013 16:04 GMT
#89396
On December 05 2013 21:34 BurningSera wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 05 2013 19:01 hariooo wrote:
On December 05 2013 18:45 BurningSera wrote:
On December 05 2013 17:58 hariooo wrote:
On December 05 2013 17:42 BurningSera wrote:
On December 05 2013 17:08 hariooo wrote:
On December 05 2013 15:44 njt7 wrote:
The only way to comparatively use DSR effectively is against yourself for later references. Comparing against others wont give you anything good. And the site is still in massive beta from the looks of it so your DSR number might change just for the worst just from patching.

The developer seems decent so in the future it might be useful but all of these different rating numbers is usually worthless for self improvement its dangerous to get caught in pointless ego boosting. If people actually want to improve their play they should watch their own replays and analyze as well as watching specific heroes/roles played by the best(pros) and try to emulate. Most important is probably to try to find people to play with/ against who is already better then you.

Not sure why I went on this rant but Im getting tired of this DSR/Dotabuff mania going on.


Of course you can compare it to other people. It's also the whole basis of why DSR can predict the winner of a game.

On December 05 2013 15:48 Staboteur wrote:
On December 05 2013 15:21 FakeDeath wrote:
So I just tried out this mydotaskill.com thing everyone is talking about.
My DSR is 954 Emerald whatever that means.

Can this be taken as a legit base line of your skill level?
Not like a true indicator but more of where u stand in the dota ladder?

Though I wonder how they actually calculated your DSR.
What is the difference between this and Valve internal rating?


DSR's gone through 3 or so iterations where they adjust the algorithms to produce new and exciting numbers that may or may not mean a damn thing to anyone at all.

They're not a good indicator of skill. By the site's only admission, it is only able to predict the winner of any given game correctly 65% of the time. Seeing as that's only 15% better than a blind guess over many iterations, I'd say it is still pretty damn inaccurate.


People who don't have a background in statistics need to stop saying things like this. 65% prediction accuracy over a large sample is RIDICULOUS and if that 65% is proven to be true it is clearly evidence of DSR's accuracy. It would be a statistical fact except people who don't study stats can't be convinced because they can't understand the proof.


I dont think any of that matters when most of the player profile is set to be hidden by default.

Meanwhile, Player number 34176943 DSR is:
1275

This player has a Pro DSR score (top 0,5%).

>_> and my smurf now is 460. I am entertained enough by now, that will be the last time i visit the site.
and i fcking respect the people behind dotabuff now.


http://www.reddit.com/r/DotA2/comments/1s4ezx/mydotaskillcom_and_why_it_should_be_ignored/cdtubbc

Hidden profiles shouldn't matter.


Yes it does very much so matters, unless some people just wanted a number to say something meaningless about their skill/ranking then it shouldn't matter to them i guess (or anything matters to them in that case, hence the ridiculous ranking from the website).

You can talk about fancy stats techniques etc but in the end of day I hope people know that the site is a joke lol (a bigger joke than DBR if you must, and i actually respect the stats guys behind dotabuff now because they actually have the self-respect and morale as some statisticians.

say 1000 out of 100000 players are actual top class player, ill give you 800 of them have the profile opened for public because high level players surely care about their ranking (obviously i am being very generous here, go search dendi pub games you will almost always find 1-5 players that are anonymous), so in this case there are 200 top class players that will never be included in the stats results, ie the ranking of these 800 players will forever be not accurate because we know there are differences between top top top top class players and top class players.

and then lets say 40000 out of the remaining 99000 players have made their profile public, that's a very generous number because that would mean almost 40% of the players are showing their profile. I think I'll stop here now because if you still think that DSR means anything then there is nothing more i say can persuade you to think otherwise lol.

p/s: i am guessing that DSR is using somesort of 'curve fitting' model to 'predict' people rankings but in this case of dota2 player pool, it wont be a meaningful curve.


Holy fuck. You're trying to argue against something that already happens in real life. Let me see if I can break this down really simply for you with a braindead example.

When your country (I'm assuming the UK does these) conducts a census of the population, they do not collect data from every single person living in the UK. They collect an INCOMPLETE data set. Yet they can still draw conclusions from that data set like who the expect certain demographics to vote for, if there is mass migration from rural to urban districts, etc.

Here's another example because of how adamantly you want to argue on a topic with which you clearly have no academic or professional experience. When Nate Silver perfectly predicted the 9 swing states for the US 2012 election, I PROMISE YOU he did not collect data from every single voter in those states.

Drawing accurate conclusions from incomplete data is done ubiquitously all over the world in many different fields. DOTA2 is just one of them.


You still dont get it do you. I'll put it in another angle to read my post:
'DSR is for some people who just wanted a number to say something about their skill/ranking'.

Of course it depends on how well one is convinced from that website but in reality that 'something' can be pretty meaningless. How meaningless it can be? nobody knows. If the creator of the website said the accuracy is X% then he is pulling that out from his ass, he CANNOT know that X%.

I am not even talking about the absolute accuracy here, i am talking about a convincing ranking. The fact that the website is telling people to stop stacking with noob friends in order to get a higher ranking means that they cant be sure of your skill level if you stacked. Valve who has all the real stats couldn't figure out a good MM to work (they will need to make a good ranking system behind to do so) and some magical website somehow capable to achieve that?

Funny because i am doing some population-based cohort study of some patients of a city so clearly I don't know anything about statistics.


Statistically you can know something with xx% confidence. That's just a fact.

If you're skeptical about DSR that's one thing, but when you make arguments like "you can't draw conclusions from incomplete data sets" or "he must be pulling a prediction rate out of his ass because you cannot know the X%", it really is evidence you have no idea what you're talking about.

On December 05 2013 21:41 -Celestial- wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 05 2013 20:13 hariooo wrote:
On December 05 2013 19:53 -Celestial- wrote:
On December 05 2013 19:19 njt7 wrote:
Using that logic do you also think anyone clanking down on it has very low DSR or is behind a competing site? I think people should be able to express their opinions on this board without assumptions being thrown in their faces.


Yes. Clearly.

Or maybe its just the way he's just so...intense. And being aggressively insulting to people more or less at random.


Instead of being a passive aggressive beta like what you've been doing?



First of all, calm down.


Second, you want me to be more direct? Fine by me. Remember, you're the one who decided to jump on me with your inane and bloody obvious comment that "what the numbers mean has changed!" Then you decided to follow it up with a flippant comment about "oh you've got to have soloQ games that aren't in LP" which frankly I find hillariously presumptive and, again, bloody obvious.

Not to mention your high-handed and insulting responses with regard to anyone in here who has actually attempted to ask you a question or, god forbid, actually make a point against it. You're arrogant, aggressive and even being nasty to those genuinely curious.

No, not everyone on here has statistical experience to understand arguments in favour of the system (I do as a matter of fact, I'm a research scientist, but that's besides the point); but I'm willing to bet a good proportion of people on here are smart, educated people with the CAPABILITY to understand. However the way you're treating people is convincing nobody of anything. Sort out your attitude and people may start to actually listen.


Point to a comment that I've responded to where someone has been "genuinely curious". It's just people who dismiss it out of hand and double down on their views after a response.

You're going to add those little smileys at the end of a sentence calling me out and talk shit about *my* attitude? Get real.

On December 06 2013 00:38 Sn0_Man wrote:
Why are the last infinite pages full of spam from some guy who claims to have a statistics background defending a rating which fluctuates SO WILDLY it can't honestly claim any confidence interval at all?


That's not how you use a confidence interval.
Sn0_Man
Profile Blog Joined October 2012
Tebellong44238 Posts
December 05 2013 16:06 GMT
#89397
P=1
LiquidDota StaffSCIENTISTS BAFFLED | 3275929302
Shaella
Profile Blog Joined January 2013
United States14828 Posts
December 05 2013 16:25 GMT
#89398
We know the real reason DSR is shitty

Glorious EE sama only at 2nd
don't tell me to provide a legend for those charts cause we already got shaella in this thread - eieio | Bulba is my waifu
Plansix
Profile Blog Joined April 2011
United States60190 Posts
December 05 2013 16:49 GMT
#89399
The discussion about DSR has made me care less about it than before I knew it existed. It does not sound like an accurate metric of anything. Plus the people who are really into it are not making it more appealing.
I have the Honor to be your Obedient Servant, P.6
TL+ Member
solidbebe
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Netherlands4921 Posts
December 05 2013 16:51 GMT
#89400
On December 06 2013 01:49 Plansix wrote:
The discussion about DSR has made me care less about it than before I knew it existed. It does not sound like an accurate metric of anything. Plus the people who are really into it are not making it more appealing.

Now THAT, is interesting
That's the 2nd time in a week I've seen someone sig a quote from this GD and I have never witnessed a sig quote happen in my TL history ever before. -Najda
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