▶ Commentator Lee Seung Won (from MBCGame) - Perfect setting for a 3:0 Flash victory.
This finals is very exciting for me because I always wondered when will I ever see these two play in a finals. The sheer thought of the top two players in the KeSPA ranking fighting it out was a mere dream, but now it's reality. And furthermore, I will be personally doing commentary, so I am preparing a lot for it, and I am hugely looking forward to it as well.
I predict Flash to win. Flash is unstoppable right now, and maps are helping him out even further. Match Point is being played twice, and I simply think Flash won't lose at all. I think the key map will be Ultimatum, played in the second set. However, I predict Flash will eventually emerge as the winner, 3:0 or at most, 3:1. Flash has a very high chance of taking this MSL, but should it get to the final set, Jaedong may have a chance. That is because Jaedong's mental strength and concentration grows exponentially as the series progresses, and his management ability is simply amazing. He's not called the "Master of LWWW" for nothing.
▶ Commentator Um Jae Kyung (from OGN) - Even the mighty Jaedong will have a hard time, because it's Flash he's facing.
I said this in a OGN show earlier and I'll say it again, but the most possibly exciting finals at the moment would be Jaedong vs Flash. This is because two of the leaders in the modern age - the "Taek-Bang-Lee-Ssang"'s Flash and Jaedong - are at their peak at the moment.
I predict a 3:1 victory for Flash. If it's Jaedong, he will be able to overcome any sort of map imbalance (TL note: Arena MSL lol), but still, it's Flash he's facing so it will be extremely tough.
Flash is on fire lately. But, if Flash has let down his guard even the slightest bit after his OSL victory, he may lose to Jaedong. That's how strong Jaedong is. Conversely, if Flash still hasn't lost his focus, he will be able to ride on the map imbalance and his current momentum to victory.
3-0 or 3-1 flash, I agree. I really don't see what JD can do. I predict that it'll be much like calm's series. 2 hatch mutas through the entire series with mixed results, mostly towards flash's favour. JD is going to pull out some desperation guardians as a followup, banking on his muta micro to protect his guardians but flash will be well prepared with 3 starports and perfect m&m positioning.
I want it to go all the way to game five, but sadly something tells me that Flash will stomp Jaedong 3:0 or 3:1. I still bet on JD though, I BELIEVE! Either way I'm hoping for some great games. Please don't fall for any bunker rushes JD.
Wow, that's an eye-opener, I didn't realize. Still hoping for the best finals of all time!
Both jaedong and flash said in an interview that player's skill is much more relevant to wining than a map statistic. Add to the fact that some of the maps have a very low game pool and it's a Bo5 where mind games rule your world as Julyzerg him self said after his Golden Mouse win. With jaedong and flash it's one mistake and it's all over so anything can happen.
Still Flash with his incredible form as of late looks to be the favorite but dont count JD out. Hoping for a great games and someone crying again(from joy i mean) :D
On January 21 2010 18:04 IdrA wrote: ultimatum and oddeye are 3-3, 2-2 tvz if you take out flash's games. dont quote statistics off a sample of 8 fucking games.
Yeah there's so much talking here about not taking little sample sizes and now ppl are talking about imba with maps that were played only a few times QQ
Plus Match Point seems to be kinda "cursed" map for Flash
edit: But I wouldn't blame too much on the map imbalances if Flash ends up winning anyway. I mean, Flash did end up winning the OSL Finals on Protoss maps.
On January 21 2010 18:04 IdrA wrote: ultimatum and oddeye are 3-3, 2-2 tvz if you take out flash's games. dont quote statistics off a sample of 8 fucking games.
agreed. it's flash vs jaedong here.. if the map was IMBA i'm sure they can work around it. sheeeesh.
On January 21 2010 18:04 IdrA wrote: ultimatum and oddeye are 3-3, 2-2 tvz if you take out flash's games. dont quote statistics off a sample of 8 fucking games.
This basically. I don't think map balance will be an issue between these two.
Once you remove Flash's TvZ games from those win percentages, you get:
Match Point: 72.7% Ultimatum: 50% Odd-Eye: 50% Fighting Spirit: 43.7%
Match point is the only one that's still has a shitty record without Flash's games (because he's done the worst on that map).
It's a moot point thought because the sample sizes are too low too mean anything for most of those maps.
edit: beaten by idra:
On January 21 2010 18:04 IdrA wrote: ultimatum and oddeye are 3-3, 2-2 tvz if you take out flash's games. dont quote statistics off a sample of 8 fucking games.
To the point about the stats: half the players in the MSL were Zerg. Of course there would be a lot more mediocre Zergs to ruin the stats here... while the few Terrans allowed Flash to skew the stats with his ridiculous play - excluding Match Point and Fighting Spirit which are PL maps as well, and considering Match Point is Flash's kryptonite, I'd say these maps are balanced, if not favoring Jaedong.
BUT, this is Flash we're talking about. I haven't seen a player on such a rampage since Savior. Then again, this is Jaedong. In hardcore rage-mode after their OSL meeting. Of course, Flash is the best Terran, and a victory here will cement his legacy. Well, Jaedong is the best Zerg, and a win here will consolidate his position of the greatest Zerg of all times. Naturally, Flash's TvZ is arguably even better than oov's at his prime, so if anyone can do this, he can. Seriously though, Jaedong has the strongest ZvT, and the most dominant since Yellow.
Nice, listing percentages without sample size, or any consideration of who played the games.
I watched most of these games live, so, as an example:
Match Point
Flash > Kwanro, nothing wrong with this result Baby > Hyun, interesting result but not egregious, two inconsistent players with high potential. Baby went mech and Hyun played pretty brain-dead Kwanro > Light, ling all in Zero > Flash, great build and great play by Zero Light > hero, Muta/Guardian all-in by hero, he knocks Light back to just one base and can't finish the job, blown game by hero Hyun > Flash, amazing game Shine > Special, better player won Iris > hyvaa, I don't remember this game too well but I believe Iris pulled a nice comeback Flash > Saint, hidden Lurker all in failed hero > Canata, don't remember this game fantasy > Calm, long game in which Calm played poorly after getting a huge lead Hwasin > Shine, don't remember this fantasy > Hoejja, solid play by fantasy with a great Wraith switch and a Nuke Ruby > juni Ruby > shark, nothing wrong with either of these results
That's just one map, but if you look at the game lists (and watch the games) for pretty much each of these maps, none of them is egregious. Slight edge to Terran? Probably. But those statistics you listed are terribly misleading and just plain unhelpful.
On January 21 2010 20:33 konadora wrote: Tiamat was a fucking joke lol
I dont know why Tiamat get such a hate tbh. I mean it's not a balanced map, but it's aesthetically beautiful map and i've played awesome games on ICCup when they still had it in the maphack.
So the percentages on each map except fighting spirit are based on TvZ results with flash but without jaedong. So it doesn't really give a fair view. Also the maps are fairly new and not alot of statistics are up yet so why do you speculate so much on these statistics?
Flash won twice and lost twice on televised games on matchpoint and it will be played twice. So if you want to speculate about map imbalance maybe this could be in jaedongs favour.
But we really don't know how well jaedong plays vs terrans on 3 of the 4 maps
As has been pointed out, the statistics themselves are meaningless because there are too few games in the sample size. However, in that "Progamers predict the MSL winner" thread a whole lot of them suggested that the maps were slanted towards Terran, so i dunno.
On January 21 2010 20:33 konadora wrote: Tiamat was a fucking joke lol
I dont know why Tiamat get such a hate tbh. I mean it's not a balanced map, but it's aesthetically beautiful map and i've played awesome games on ICCup when they still had it in the maphack.
Many of the terran progamers actually think matcfhpoint is a good map for zerg. And it's played twice and flash has a "bad" record on this map. But since its jaedong and flash, i dont think these maps will matter too much.
EPT
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