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[SKPL]Week 5 predictions!

Forum Index > BW General
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1 2 Next All
mustaju
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Estonia4504 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-12-27 05:29:20
December 27 2011 02:31 GMT
#1
Merry Holidays everyone!

You might have noticed that the Proleague team took a short break, but rest assured, it is only to keep the quality of our news-posts at the high standards we set ourselves. However, there is one part of the regular news-post that doesn't really allow for breaks, which is the predictions part. Hence, I dropped the holiday mutton and sat down at my keyboard to try and give you at least something to pass the time until the next news-post comes around. Enjoy!

Predictions Progress, post week 4
aka. Back to the drawing board:


[image loading]
+ Show Spoiler [The Rules] +

If I predict the winner and the result correctly, 3 points
If I predict the winner correctly, and the result is off by 1, 1 point
If I predict the winner correctly and the result is off by 2, 0 points
If I predict the winner wrong, and the result is off by 1, -1 points
If I predict the winner wrong and the result is off by more than one, -2 points.

What went right last week:


[image loading] Air Force ACE 1-3 SK Telecom T1 [image loading]


This match was predicted completely correctly, but with a bit of a surprise. ACE has a great Terran lineup with Iris, Piano and FBH and a pretty good Zerg in ggaemo. I expected great and Kal to come out and lose, continuing their slumps, but none of the good ACE Terrans playing in favor of playing Canata and M18M? Really? Honestly, ACE deserved being walked over, despite a pretty good game by M18M. I guess neither team took the match all that seriously, since SKT played Hyuk (who despite winning, still looked out of form) and Ssak instead of Soo and BeSt, who should hard-counter the Terran heavy lineup of ACE, but a win is a win. I stand by saying that ACE should have tried a little harder though.

[image loading] Samsung KHAN 3-1 Team 8 [image loading]


Stork, RorO and Jangbi are all really, really strong, hence I thought KHAN would win 3-2, but Team 8 chose to forego playing Baby AND Killer in favor of the former MBC Protosses who are just a bit off their game at this point. Jaehoon falling to a cannon rush in particular was both sad and predictable for me personally, since I am a fan of his and only wish him well for this season, yet he seems to lack the starsense players like Flash employ to mindboggling effect. (Seriously, watch Light vs. Flash, and tell me the kid does not have some form of maphack!) I can blame either the Team 8 coach for suboptimal matchups, the sword of Damocles hanging over the head of the sponsorless team or both at once, but Team 8 really needs some additional boost to stay with the competition.

[image loading] Team 8 2-3 CJ Entus [image loading]


This result was actually very different from the one in my head. CJ drew an uncharacteristic amount of bad matchups with Jaedong vs. Snow and Movie vs. Sea. To my surprise, they won the unfavorable matchups and lost a really good matchup in Hydra vs. Killer. On the other hand, CJ still seems like an autowin against most teams due to the sheer depth it has at it's disposal. Even Skyhigh seems to have some spark reignited in him (he better, if he wants to make an appearance in CJ-s CURRENT lineup), so predicting CJ wins seems safe for Liquibets and this challenge.

What went wrong last week:


[image loading] Woongjin Stars 1-3 KT Rolster [image loading]


Suits me right for only checking the TL calendar. Not predicting a match should be appropriately punished. This means -3 points.

[image loading] Air Force ACE 3-0 Samsung KHAN [image loading]


BAM! Who saw this coming?!? Certainly not me, and certainly not KHAN. While playing Juni when you have Shine and RorO seems a little weird, I do understand fielding the poor kid when you think you have the match in the bag. But I can't even blame KHAN's loss on overconfidence, since they sent out Jangbi and Stork, their best players, to play in sets 2 and 3. Against a slumping Kal and a Woongjin Terran, this should have brought KHAN back in the lead, but they were not just beaten, they were outplayed! People dissing PianO need to look at his last 10 games record and see how good he has become in uniform, and a revived Kal might make ACE a serious threat to just about everyone. Just wow.

[image loading] SK Telecom T11-3 STX SouL [image loading]


I tend to not believe in miracles. Some part of me still doesn't believe this just happened, but after rewatching the games, I do have to admit just how wrong I was in putting down the team I love so much. The STX coach did some good sniping for a change, and SKT bringing out the big guns did not help a bit when confronted by an unexpected performance from Last and thought-to-be-slumping Bogus and Calm. Last in particular proved my trust in him with a stranglehold even the OSL champion Fantasy couldn't break. Mark my words, this kid will pull more upsets!

Predictions, Week 5:


Tuesday, December 27th

[image loading] CJ Entus vs. Woongjin Stars [image loading]


At the start of the season, many wrote Woongjin off as a low-tier team, yet surprisingly, they managed to inch their way into 3rd place, partly due to a uncharacteristic performance by SKT, and partly because of the revival of free and the aquiring of Shy. Why then, do I think that this match swings badly in favor of CJ? Because Woongjin specializes in defeating Terran, yet CJ is mainly carried by it's Zergs and Protoss. While Soulkey's vP and vZ are formidable, I would still give an edge to Movie, Effort and Hydra against him. Ditto with Zero and free, and I won't even give much of a doubt in regards to Shy. Light is the major flaw in my theory, seeing how well he played against BeSt, and for his Prowess in TvZ, but there is only 1 of him, and CJ's Gosu-coaches might be able to snipe him with Snow, Horang2, Skyhigh or Leta.
My prediction: CJ Entus 3-1 Woongjin Stars

Wednesday, December 28th

[image loading] KT Rolster vs. STX SouL [image loading]


Don't just skim over this portion, this match might actually change the momentum of Proleague entirely, if the so called "miracles" are actually sign of things to come. Whichever team wins this match will have an equal win-loss ratio and a 3 win-streak momentum. Becoming a winning team changes a lot of things, and losing now could mean a downward spiral to the bottom of the barrel again. Both teams were written off by both me and a majority of people just a week ago, yet they managed to defeat teams that looked much stronger on paper with dedication and practice, practice, practice. I sincerely believe that against each other, they will do their best to keep that momentum up and continue a winning streak that will make them a force to be reckoned with in round 2. All my STX fanboyism aside, I have to acknowledge KT Rolster as the favorite this game, especially since the teams they defeated were a lot stronger, and because the win-loss ratio in their lost games was a lot better. Flash and Stats is a combo that will be very hard to stop. On the other hand, I still have strong doubts regarding Minds form, none of the KT Zergs impresses me at all (sorry, Hoejja), and if Stats manages to play against Bogus, I'm pretty sure Bogus will emerge victorious. Bogus is 4-0 vs. Stats, all of them in the last year. In addition, the KT coach hasn't been very good at getting good lineups for his team for most of the season, so the advantage isn't overwhelming. On the STX side, I have this weird feeling of Shuttle potentially taking a game off Flash and Modesty and Calm winning ZvZ-s, but these are not really suitable to be included in any serious predictions. I'd love to give the first "STX wins" prediction, yet alas, this is not the day.
My prediction: KT Rolster 3-2 STX SouL

Saturday, December 31st

[image loading] CJ Entus vs. SK Telecom T1 [image loading]


CJ Entus and SK Telecom T1. Just mentioning this game is going to send Proleague fans in a frenzy. Most predictions about the playoffs I've seen see both teams in the finals or at least one of them winning the whole thing. The enormous fanbases of both teams are sure to make the Live Report thread a long one by BW standards, and any combination of players promises a good match. Take for example, Effort. Possibilities: Effort vs. Fantasy, Effort vs. Bisu, Effort vs. BeSt, Effort vs. Sun, even Effort vs. SoO might be really good. Both teams are good at sniping, both teams have their own style, both teams have ugly uniforms, and both teams can be certain to take this match very seriously. If your friend has ever expressed the faintest desire to watch BW, you should make him watch this. I don't care if it's New Year's Eve, This promises to be very, very good BW of the highest level.
As for the prediction, I'm seriously stumped. CJ does choke in these high profile games from time to time, yet SKT has some bad momentum. This wouldn't be an upset 3-0 either way, but I predict a slight CJ victory because of the marvelous performance they've shown so far. On the other hand, this might be as high as CJ soars...
My prediction: CJ Entus 3-2 SK Telecom T1

[image loading] Air Force ACE vs. Woongjin Stars [image loading]


I mentioned earlier that Woongjin is very good at beating Terran, and that ACE has some great Terran players, which should be part of their main lineup every game. I also mentioned that ACE does not make good use of those Terrans in most of those games. Should ACE go Terran heavy or not? Doesn't really matter, because Woongjin *should* be better player per player. I would have a lot more confidence in predicting a Woongjin 3-1 if ACE didn't pull that Christmas miracle, but basing a prediction off one victory would be giving the last place team too much credit in my cynical opinion.
Sorry ACE,
My prediction: Air Force ACE 1-3 Woongjin Stars

Sunday, January 1st

[image loading] KT Rolster vs. Samsung KHAN [image loading]


I'll make a separate recommendation for this game. KT vs. KHAN promises to be pretty good, with a decent chance of Jangbi or Stork vs. Flash. For lovers of TvP, it doesn't get much better than this. Any match featuring Stats is pretty likely to be good as well. Predicting an outcome depends a lot on KT vs. STX though. If KT lose to STX, they will definitely lose to KHAN. If they win, the match should be a lot closer. Since it's likely they'll win, this match would be Game of the Week if it didn't feature CJ vs. SKT, so do yourself a favor and watch it.
My Prediction: KT Rolster 2-3 Samsung KHAN

[image loading] STX SouL vs. Team 8 [image loading]

Another match that depends strongly on the outcome of STX vs. KT. If STX beat KT, it wouldn't be a far stretch to say that they'd be able to beat Team 8. I'd love to see a Last vs. Jaedong rematch, a Sea vs. Shuttle, a Calm vs. Tyson, a Baby vs. Bogus, and a hyvaa vs. Jaehoon, but if STX lose to KT, I can't help but think that they'd roll over and die in the last game of the round. So, based on my earlier prediction -
My prediction: STX SouL 1-3 Team 8

Game of the Week: CJ Entus vs. SK Telecom T1. Every game should be good. I know what I'll be watching on New Year's Eve.

Game of the Week 2: KT Rolster vs. Samsung KHAN. Two TBLS members, Jangbi, the resurging dragon, Stats, the neo-Dragon, RorO, the slayer of Antiteams, Hoejja, the God-Zerg. Awesome. Watch it!

And to add more content to this post, here's a poll. People still like polls, right? Vote for the team which will get the next fanfic written about it!
Poll: Which team will the next Fanfic be about?

Team 8 (24)
 
53%

Samsung KHAN (8)
 
18%

CJ Entus (5)
 
11%

Air Force ACE (4)
 
9%

STX SouL (2)
 
4%

Woongjin Stars (2)
 
4%

45 total votes

Your vote: Which team will the next Fanfic be about?

(Vote): Air Force ACE
(Vote): CJ Entus
(Vote): Samsung KHAN
(Vote): STX SouL
(Vote): Team 8
(Vote): Woongjin Stars



Thanks to Simplistik for the team jerseys, to HawaiianPig for the Prediction Progress table and to the PL team for taking me into their secret elitist cabal of TL high society. Also, thank you to everyone who offered me moral support, and a Merry Holiday to all of you!
WriterBrows somewhat high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndFysO2JunE
endy
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
Switzerland8970 Posts
December 27 2011 02:43 GMT
#2
You are being harsh with yourself for that Stars vs KT match.

How did you feel after STX vs SKT ?
ॐ
Kiante
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Australia7069 Posts
December 27 2011 02:46 GMT
#3
you eat mutton at christmas?


.....why?
Writer
soujiro_
Profile Joined June 2010
Uruguay5195 Posts
December 27 2011 02:51 GMT
#4
great write-up, hope under rated teams keep surprising people and screwing some liquibets ^___^
ace hwaiting!!
2Pacalypse-
Profile Joined October 2006
Croatia9499 Posts
December 27 2011 02:54 GMT
#5
Nice! Hard to decide which Fanfic I want. Either Team 8 or ACE!

If you actually predicted ACE and Stars winning, then you would need to change your name to Paul.
Moderator"We're a community of geniuses because we've found how to extract 95% of the feeling of doing something amazing without actually doing anything." - Chill
telamascope
Profile Joined April 2010
United States310 Posts
December 27 2011 02:54 GMT
#6
On December 27 2011 11:46 Kiante wrote:
you eat mutton at christmas?


.....why?


Because it's delicious? There's nothing like good mountain-bred sheep for a Christmas dinner.
slappy
Profile Blog Joined March 2010
United States1271 Posts
December 27 2011 03:00 GMT
#7
I'm hoping the last week screwed everyone's liquibet so my score is still good in comparison ^^
Happy holidays everyone, here's to more epic BW!
jaedong imba
Sawamura
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Malaysia7602 Posts
December 27 2011 03:06 GMT
#8
I like the prediction but the fan boy in me says we will win stx and khan . KT Lolster indeed ^_^.
BW/KT Forever R.I.P KT.Violet dearly missed ..
iLoveKT
Profile Blog Joined October 2008
Philippines3615 Posts
December 27 2011 03:07 GMT
#9
I just want to know, what wouldve been your prediction in KT vs Stars? nice writeup. cant wait for the PL news post.
Woo Jung Ho
Gao Xi
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Hong Kong5178 Posts
December 27 2011 03:13 GMT
#10
Both teams are good at sniping, both teams have their own style, both teams have ugly uniforms

So true, so true.
Dat yellow...
That series will be sick, hopefully everyone will be at their best, and we'll see the sickest series yet.
龔智禮 _________________________________________________________________________________________________ CJ NATION
Kiante
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
Australia7069 Posts
December 27 2011 03:14 GMT
#11
lamb > mutton
Writer
konadora *
Profile Blog Joined February 2009
Singapore66158 Posts
December 27 2011 03:23 GMT
#12
SO EXCITED FOR CJ VS SKT
HYDRA VS FANTASY
SKYHIGH VS FANTASY
HYDRA VS BISU
EFFORT VS BISU
HORANG2 VS BEST
EFFORT VS BEST
SNOW VS SSAK
HYUK VS HYUK

THE POSSIBILITIES ARE ENDLESS!
POGGERS
mnesthes
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
5433 Posts
December 27 2011 03:28 GMT
#13
On December 27 2011 12:23 konadora wrote:
SO EXCITED FOR CJ VS SKT
HYDRA VS FANTASY
SKYHIGH VS FANTASY
HYDRA VS BISU
EFFORT VS BISU
HORANG2 VS BEST
EFFORT VS BEST
SNOW VS SSAK
HYUK VS HYUK

THE POSSIBILITIES ARE ENDLESS!
I see what you did there.
<+LighTofHeaveN> Ppl call this "Indigo Children"
babysuperga
Profile Joined November 2011
Vietnam49 Posts
December 27 2011 03:41 GMT
#14
I think SKT is slumping and KHAN is showing their inconsistent form. ACE and STX are interesting.
TheShimmy
Profile Joined January 2011
United States1808 Posts
December 27 2011 04:09 GMT
#15
STXXXXXXXXXXXXX

We should beat KT, T8 will be interesting though. Bogus should get a W, but Calm, Shuttle, and Mini need to be A game. And Modesty probably has to snipe JD.
Hyvaa #1 Fan. Gogo STX, Dear, Bogus, Classic, and Mini! Always a BW fan!
mustaju
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Estonia4504 Posts
December 27 2011 04:38 GMT
#16
On December 27 2011 12:07 iLoveKT wrote:
I just want to know, what wouldve been your prediction in KT vs Stars? nice writeup. cant wait for the PL news post.

Would have expected Stars to edge it out 3-2 for the KT lolster result, honestly. And I would have been wrong.
WriterBrows somewhat high. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndFysO2JunE
Carnivorous Sheep
Profile Blog Joined November 2008
Baa?21242 Posts
December 27 2011 04:40 GMT
#17
On December 27 2011 11:54 telamascope wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 27 2011 11:46 Kiante wrote:
you eat mutton at christmas?


.....why?


Because it's delicious? There's nothing like good mountain-bred sheep for a Christmas dinner.


...Baa ;_;
TranslatorBaa!
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50118 Posts
December 27 2011 04:54 GMT
#18
On December 27 2011 13:40 Carnivorous Sheep wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 27 2011 11:54 telamascope wrote:
On December 27 2011 11:46 Kiante wrote:
you eat mutton at christmas?


.....why?


Because it's delicious? There's nothing like good mountain-bred sheep for a Christmas dinner.


...Baa ;_;


people prefer things a bit less cheep on the holidays,you're fine.
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
1Eris1
Profile Joined September 2010
United States5797 Posts
December 27 2011 05:00 GMT
#19
Don't be too hard on yourself man. Christmas's games were unfathomable.

As for next week. SKT will destroy CJ in a blaze of glory and KT will lose both their games.

sup
Known Aliases: Tyragon, Valeric ~MSL Forever, SKT is truly the Superior KT!
Sawamura
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
Malaysia7602 Posts
December 27 2011 05:14 GMT
#20
On December 27 2011 14:00 1Eris1 wrote:
Don't be too hard on yourself man. Christmas's games were unfathomable.

As for next week. SKT will destroy CJ in a blaze of glory and KT will lose both their games.

sup


Not happening son , KT will rollster their opponent easy .
BW/KT Forever R.I.P KT.Violet dearly missed ..
1 2 Next All
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