Premature unbiased playoff predictions

Samsung > STX
CJ > Hite
Samsung > CJ
Samsung > Oz (FBH > Jaedong in the final game and sends Jaedong's career down the drain)
Samsung > T1 (Stork > Bisu in Ace and the world will explode)

On July 08 2009 07:05 Avidkeystamper wrote:
If they tie in everything, then they will play one 1v1 to decide the 3rd place seed (who will face Khan, so it is desireable).

Samsung over Hite? If the playoffs are indeed Bo7, I can't see how a team would rather play Khan over ~~Sparkyz~~ Leta.

Avidkeystamper

United States8556 Posts

July 07 2009 22:58 GMT

#104

Oh Hite? Then it's arguable, depending on which Khan shows up.

Carnac

Germany / USA16648 Posts

July 08 2009 10:20 GMT

#105

On July 08 2009 07:04 o3.power91 wrote:

Show nested quote +

Isn't STX guaranteed the #3 spot? The only way another team can get to #3 is if CJ 3-0s STX in which case both teams will be tied in wins, losses, and points for 3rd place. The only way I can see to separate them in that case is to decide by using their total record against each other in the entire season (all 5 rounds) which would then be 3-2 in favor of STX. Would be interesting though if CJ and STX are tied for 3rd place.

From the looks of it though, no matter what happens, STX has the #3 spot too.

Uhm, I even mentioned the amount of matches left in my post

When I posted Hite had 2 left, STX 1, with STX having a 32-22 record and Hite 31-22. Hite won their match vs Woongjin today, so right now it looks like this (all 12 teams have 1 match left):

Rank & Name | Match Win-Loss | game differential
1. SK Telecom T1 | 35-19 | +39
2. Hwaseung Oz | 34-20 | +28
3. STX Soul | 32-22 | +31
4. Hite Sparkyz | 32-22 | +21
5. CJ Entus | 31-23 | +25
6. Samsung KHAN | 30-24 | +4
7. KT MagicNs | 28-26 | -2
8. Woongjin Stars | 27-28 | -9
9. MBC Hero | 25-29 | -13
10. eSTRO | 21-34 | -17
11. WeMade Fox | 21-34 | -36
12. Air Force ACE | 9-45 | -76

(eSTRO and WeMade switched ranks after last night's matches btw, not that it really matters tho)

Now, if STX loses their last game and Hite wins, then Hite is #3. STX losing automatically means means CJ wins, because they play each other in their last match. CJ winning that match 3-0 would tie STX and CJ at 32-23 and +28 game differential. Since it would be for #4 #5 I'm not sure whether they would have to play a 1v1 bo1 to break the tie, because #4 and #5 play each other in the playoff anyway. CJ winning 3-1 or 3-1 would put STX at #4 and CJ and #5. It's a whole different story if Hite loses their last match though.

Heyoka

Katowice25012 Posts

July 10 2009 05:00 GMT

#106

I updated the graphics but carnac already has the relevant info in that post! You might notice some of the game differentials are funky (FOX is 103-137 in games but has a -35 spread) this should be due to penalties or something, I'm not entirely sure but these numbers are the most official.

eSTRO moving up a spot is the only interesting thing that happened this week and its not particularly interesting. Playoffs are now set minus some shuffling thats possible in 3-6.

pripple

Finland1714 Posts

July 10 2009 07:29 GMT

#107

thanks for keeping us up to date, can't wait to get the playoffs going.

SuperArc

Austria7781 Posts

July 10 2009 14:15 GMT

#108

CJ for the win!

dnosrc

Germany454 Posts

July 10 2009 17:31 GMT

#109

On June 07 2009 21:38 SuperArc wrote:
SKT won't take 1st.

Either CJ or Oz will depending on this week's match.

u were wrong! :D

Carnac

Germany / USA16648 Posts

July 11 2009 07:54 GMT

#110

Thanks for the update, heyoka!

Ok, now that Hite won their last match today, tomorrow's match between CJ and Soul will determine who will play who in the first two playoff matches:

+ Show Spoiler [long version] +

Rank & Name | Match Win-Loss | game differential
1. SK Telecom T1 | 35-19 | +39
2. Hwaseung Oz | 34-20 | +28
3. Hite Sparkyz | 33-22 | +22
4. STX Soul | 32-22 | +31
5. CJ Entus | 31-23 | +25
6. Samsung KHAN | 30-24 | +4
7. KT MagicNs | 28-26 | -2
8. Woongjin Stars | 27-28 | -9
9. MBC Hero | 25-29 | -13
10. eSTRO | 21-34 | -17
11. WeMade Fox | 21-34 | -36
12. Air Force ACE | 9-45 | -76

This would give us the following start into the playoffs (#3 vs #6 and #4 vs #5):
Hite Sparkyz vs Samsung Khan
STX Soul vs CJ Entus

STX and CJ will also play each other tomorrow in their last match of the regular season. This match can still change who plays who in the playoffs:

if CJ wins 3-0 STX and CJ will be tied for #4 in Win-Loss (32-23) as well as game differential (+28). This would force a single 1v1 between both teams as a tie-breaker to determine who gets #4 and who gets #5. The tie-breaker would be unnecessary for the playoffs since #4 and #5 play each other anyway, but since the playoff rankings are relevant for the drafting of new players I guess they would have to play it anyway
if CJ wins 3-1 or 3-2 nothing changes.
if STX wins by whatever margin they retake #3, changing the playoff matches to STX Soul vs Samsung KHAN and Hite Sparkyz vs CJ Entus.

So basically, if CJ for whatever reason feels that they'd rather play Hite than STX in the first round of the playoff, they could just drop the match. They would of course still have to play STX the next round, provided they win vs Hite and STX wins vs Samsung. They could be hoping for Samsung to throw out STX throw.
This is obviously wild speculation and personally I don't think they care either way.

+ Show Spoiler [TL;DR version] +

If CJ wins the playoffs start with:
Hite Sparkyz vs Samsung KHAN
STX Soul vs CJ Entus

If STX wins instead the playoffs start with:
STX Soul vs Samsung KHAN
Hite Sparkyz vs CJ Entus

SuperArc

Austria7781 Posts

July 11 2009 08:58 GMT

#111

On July 11 2009 02:31 dnosrc wrote:

Show nested quote +

u were wrong! :D

yeah, completely wrong lol

Heyoka

Katowice25012 Posts

July 12 2009 00:12 GMT

#112

Thanks for that Carnac!

I also get the impression they don't care - every team seems more interested in giving some of their guys game time who don't frequently play than any shuffling around in ranks 3-6. Playoffs should be fun!

Carnac

Germany / USA16648 Posts

July 12 2009 11:54 GMT

#113

There are still two matches tomorrow, but the ranking is final no matter tomorrow's results:

1. SK Telecom T1
2. Hwaseung Oz
3. STX Soul
4. Hite Sparkyz
5. CJ Entus
6. Samsung KHAN
7. KT MagicNs
8. Woongjin Stars
9. MBC Hero
10. eSTRO
11. WeMade Fox
12. Air Force ACE

Playoff match 1: STX Soul vs Samsung KHAN
Playoff match 2: Hite Sparkyz vs CJ Entus

Playoff semifinal: winner of match 1 vs winner of match 2
Playoff final: Hwaseung Oz vs winner of match 3

Proleague grand final: SK Telecom T1 vs winner of playoff final

Jonvvv

Norway1530 Posts

July 12 2009 11:59 GMT

#114

Will the first playoff match be played this week?

Carnac

Germany / USA16648 Posts

July 12 2009 12:09 GMT

#115

Well, for me the week starts on Monday, so I'm gonna say next week :p

Should be one match on Saturday and one on Sunday I think. Not sure which one on which day though. Line-ups etc still to be released