WASHINGTON, June 9 (Reuters) - Average U.S. gasoline pump prices -- already above $4 a gallon -- could run up 3 dollars or more by mid-summer, if crude oil prices don't fall from record levels near $140 a barrel, analysts said.
Gasoline prices are up almost $1 from a year ago, heaping pressure on a U.S. economy beleaguered by falling home values, a sagging dollar and an anemic job market. Oil prices have risen six-fold in the past six years and are up 40 percent since January.
For the first time ever, average retail U.S. pump prices tracked by the Energy Information Administration rose above $4 a gallon on Monday to average $4.04, up 96 cents from a year ago. California prices averaged $4.43 a gallon.
There are more gasoline price increases lurking in the fuel delivery chain, especially if U.S. refiners are able to boost historically low profit margins and pass more of their soaring crude oil costs along to consumers.
"There is still a very big upside potential to gasoline prices, because refining margins are not anywhere near where they were a year ago," said Fadel Gheit, an analyst with Oppenheimer & Co.
"By the middle of July, if oil prices don't go lower, we are going to see another pop of at least one to two dollars," Gheit said of gasoline retail prices.
U.S. crude CLc1 settled up $10.75 at $138.54 a barrel on Friday, after touching an all-time high of $139.12, in its biggest gain in dollar terms on record. U.S. oil futures were lower on Monday at about $136.50 a barrel.
If Friday's jump were fully priced into retail gasoline prices, they would increase about 25 cents a gallon, Gheit said.
So far, that hasn't happened because low demand for gasoline, as well as a mandate for refiners to use corn-blended ethanol, has kept U.S. refining margins weak, he said.
According to Credit Suisse, a U.S. Gulf Coast refinery can make about $16.03 from turning a barrel of oil into gasoline and other products. That's down from $28.59 a year ago.
So far, profit incentives to produce gasoline are so anemic that major refiners like Valero Energy Corp (VLO.N: Quote, Profile, Research) are shutting down gasoline-making equipment.
"They are all cutting (gasoline production) because they say they are not in the business of losing money," Gheit said. "They are not running a charity for the truckers and the motorists."
Oil prices could top $250 a barrel by July 4, one of the busiest U.S. travel holidays, as strong demand in Asia triggers a slowdown in shipments of crude to the United States, investment bank Morgan Stanley said last week.
A $250 oil price would equate to about $7.50 a gallon for gasoline, if refinery profit margins hold steady, according to Tancred Lidderdale, an analyst with the federal Energy Information Administration.
"It will be going higher," Lidderdale said about the national pump price. "The price will be going up, and it all depends on the price of crude oil." Crude oil prices comprise more than 70 percent of gasoline prices.
Such estimates vary, however. According to analysts at the Oil Price Information Service, a $250 oil price would yield a retail pump price in a range of $6.32 to $6.37 a gallon.
Consumption in the United States already has shown signs of faltering, even as the world's top consumer enters the summer vacation season, when gasoline demand generally peaks. (Editing by micronesia)
The only reason gas prices will soar is that people think they will soar. If we did not think they would soar, they would not soar. If people and the media stopped fucking expecting it to soar, then the speculators and people buying gas wouldn't expect them to soar so they would buy cheaper.
Oh I think you guys already know this, but watch the way you drive don't stress the engine too much and drive around 55mph it helps out a lot. I've driven 55 and watch that I don't stress the engine out (ie dont step hard on the pedal) and you do get a lot better mileage. I'm getting roughly 6 miles to the gallon more and in the end it does at up especially with current gas prices.
On June 11 2008 01:37 UmmTheHobo wrote: The only reason gas prices will soar is that people think they will soar. If we did not think they would soar, they would not soar. If people and the media stopped fucking expecting it to soar, then the speculators and people buying gas wouldn't expect them to soar so they would buy cheaper.
LOL, "The Secret"? You realize the whole movie is based on optimism and pessimism.
On June 11 2008 01:37 UmmTheHobo wrote: The only reason gas prices will soar is that people think they will soar. If we did not think they would soar, they would not soar. If people and the media stopped fucking expecting it to soar, then the speculators and people buying gas wouldn't expect them to soar so they would buy cheaper.
LOL, "The Secret"? You realize the whole movie is based on optimism and pessimism.
I have never seen that movie.
I just was thinking and one day I am like "LOL, the drilling companies are not jacking up prices, the speculators and people buying from drilling companies are."
forget the prius. get biodeisel and browns gas cars.
biodiesel does not mean u just buy diesel at the pump instead of regular gas. it means u can put in vegetable oil in it, cooking oil, a lot of oils. my brothers teacher, and arnold shwarzzenegger have biodiesel cars and drive up to kfc and ask for their leftover oil and start chugging away smelling like frenchfries and chicken.
i read an article in time's magazine about a midwest tinkerer with no engineering background fix up the hummer to run on biodiesel. it gets 65 miles to the gallon. let that bounce around your head for a while. and then look at the gas prices. stop thinking that gas is the only source of energy or that you need to be dependent on it!
biodiesel all and good but water powered cars are even better. it's too bad these aren't getting on mainstream media as much as trying to constantly remind you how pissed you should be that gas is going up. only a couple times do they do it, then it gets silenced. so instead of just walking to the dealing and buying a biodiesel or water powered car, u have to go through a few hoops. but people do it. if you (anyone) are really that worried over gas prices, isn't it worth the effort to look into another way that has already paved the proven path?
caveat: this is probably not "zero pouint energy" and a misnomer. it is HHO brown's gas.
shows you what the true spirit of science - experimenting with a free mind - can do. (and also what a strong effect the establishment saying "you can't do that" has)
THE PRICE OF GAS HAS STAYED CONSTNAT IN RELATION TO GOLD!!!!
gas isn't going up, the dollar is going down! just keep track of how much they inflated the currency since bush got in office, the time gas started to go up!
On June 11 2008 02:58 gwho wrote: forget the prius. get biodeisel and browns gas cars.
biodiesel does not mean u just buy diesel at the pump instead of regular gas. it means u can put in vegetable oil in it, cooking oil, a lot of oils. my brothers teacher, and arnold shwarzzenegger have biodiesel cars and drive up to kfc and ask for their leftover oil and start chugging away smelling like frenchfries and chicken.
i read an article in time's magazine about a midwest tinkerer with no engineering background fix up the hummer to run on biodiesel. it gets 65 miles to the gallon. let that bounce around your head for a while. and then look at the gas prices. stop thinking that gas is the only source of energy or that you need to be dependent on it!
biodiesel all and good but water powered cars are even better. it's too bad these aren't getting on mainstream media as much as trying to constantly remind you how pissed you should be that gas is going up. only a couple times do they do it, then it gets silenced. so instead of just walking to the dealing and buying a biodiesel or water powered car, u have to go through a few hoops. but people do it. if you (anyone) are really that worried over gas prices, isn't it worth the effort to look into another way that has already paved the proven path?
shows you what the true spirit of science - experimenting with a free mind - can do. (and also what a strong effect the establishment saying "you can't do that" has)
Biodiesel is a shitty stop gap. It's the reason why all of our corn prices have fucking sky rocketed. It's not a real solution.
On June 11 2008 02:59 gwho wrote: THE PRICE OF GAS HAS STAYED CONSTNAT IN RELATION TO GOLD!!!!
gas isn't going up, the dollar is going down! just keep track of how much they inflated the currency since bush got in office, the time gas started to go up!
bring back sound money.
lol...do you have any clue what you're talking about? The ratio has been horribly off for several months now.
Biodiesel is a shitty stop gap. It's the reason why all of our corn prices have fucking sky rocketed. It's not a real solution.
Biodiesel is different from ethanol. Biodiesel is usually made from wasted vegetable oil (which is why you can refuel from fast food restaurants) or soy beans. It's more efficient than ethanol and isn't nearly as damaging to the environment.
It still is a stop gap, but it's a much better one than ethanol.
We have technology to go to mars and we can't fucking use something else to power a car. Actually i heard something about using water and electricity to make a car run
On June 11 2008 03:42 yn01_ wrote: We have technology to go to mars and we can't fucking use something else to power a car. Actually i heard something about using water and electricity to make a car run
and i hear there are people who get together and teach each other to build em. i wanna get plugged in and make one myself. All it really is in the end is a source of energy. and it's just a simple matter (in that it's old technology) to simply take that energy and make it rotate some tires. people post up their cells on youtube all the time.
I was driving today as I had some errands to run, and at one point like 12 straight minivans/suvs went by me in the other lane without a single car. And I'm pretty sure most of those people were driving by themself. Yeah...
Biodiesel is a shitty stop gap. It's the reason why all of our corn prices have fucking sky rocketed. It's not a real solution.
not in the sense that it replacing gas. that's just another dependency. corn isn't the only way to get biodiesel. but it a long term solution if we diversify our energy sources. and it's definitely a short term solution. brazil long ago used multiple sources of energy including gas, biodiesel and otheres. i thnk it included hydrogen too. freemarket > control always in the long run and in the big picture.
lol...do you have any clue what you're talking about? The ratio has been horribly off for several months now.
i haven't checked it recently so i might have been mistaken. but during the entire 8 years it has stayed relatively constant. the recent months' developments could be indicating a rela problem for prices.
there are many factors to oil prices. the declining dollar, the gas tax, increased demand from industrializing nations that are very large. it all boils down to dependence on oil. we will still need energy. and it's a huge ridiculous problem to get it all or mainly from an finite, polluting source when petroleum is used to make other products that can't be made with anything else. and it could also be that the oil sellers are wisening up to the fact that the dollar is printed and created ridiculously while enjoying the benefits of the resreve currency (explain this madness to me). we have enjoyed low prices for gas and all exports because of this reserve currency status boosted inflation. we cheated. and we're paying for it. but it's really the fed and the gov, so that's why we need to overthrow them. and get back to sound money, whose value is determined by the market, not controlled by a central private agency.
water technology seems promising because there is just so damn much of it. and the mainstream media, the govenrment, oilcompanies, and the stiffling action of modern science establishment is keeping back progress and cleaner energy. so don't ask for permission. just do it.
for those that are science/engineering buff, here's an explanation video of t water cell by peter lindeman.
You know the prius gets shitty mileage compared to any of the real econoboxes right? That's right - all the pretentious pricks who drive one aren't really doing all they can. They just like to think they are.
Edit: I'm also looking into a sports bike as well as a car. Even a 600cc one will get like 40 mpg. A Ninja 250 will get like 75.
EPT
