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Daum OSL Semifinals #1 Pre-Match Analysis

Blogs > semioldguy
Post a Reply
semioldguy
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
United States7488 Posts
Last Edited: 2007-07-05 05:03:23
July 05 2007 01:42 GMT
#1
Iris v. Stork

Game 1:
Monty Hall kicks things off. We saw Stork’s game on this map last night and he took the victory here with relative ease. Iris has shown capability versus Protoss on this map though in a victory over Anytime in Proleague, which isn’t a bad claim considering the Lecaf Protoss’ record this season. I can’t help but think that Iris must remember the beating he received from Stork during their last meeting, on Longinus 2. Stork made a pair of gateways right under Iris’ nose and then pummeled him into the ground. Iris should be on the lookout for any sneaky play by Stork, especially considering the map, and may be out for a little sneaky strategy of his own. Both players seem very capable here, but I think I have to give Iris a slight edge when it comes down to who will pull a win away from the opening game.

Game 2:
For Hitchhiker I included the PSL to get a 31-21 PvT record for Hitchhiker, and that is in favor of Protoss rather than Terran. I’m not claiming that it makes it any easier for Protoss, just that they have had more success. Stork has seemed comfortable on this map in the past and I expect success from him again. Perhaps Iris can take a page out of Flash’s book from his win against Bisu and put that to good use here, but I doubt it. Stork should be on the lookout for that strategy and likewise be able to spot and shut it down. Even if Iris doesn’t try something risky I believe Stork will be able to pull through with superior play.

Game 3:
Fantasy is still a relatively new map in that so few games have been played on it. Add that on to the rather random match-ups due to starting locations and who is to say beforehand how any game might turn out. If the few statistics do imply anything however, it’s that Terran is having a difficult time on this map. I am looking forward to this game, mostly because I have no idea what either of these players might have planned and don’t want to even begin analyzing the possibilities these two might have prepared. If I were to make an educated guess, I would say that Stork is most likely to win here.

Game 4:
The game last night on Python was quite ugly. I hope it’s because Stork had planned something amazing for this match instead. If he does then I think the match will come to a close here and Stork will advance to the finals, if he starts to crumple by this point in the series as he did last night we might see Iris steal a victory from him on Python, but I somehow doubt that. It all depends on how close the positions are and whether or not either of them feels up to doing anything tricky, which I imagine is a likely possibility. As I mentioned, I expect Stork to finish off Iris here, as allowing a fifth game would be cutting it too close considering the map, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it go to a fifth and final game.

Game 5:
Monty Hall may not get played a second time, but if it does, I can’t imagine Stork losing. If it does get this far, this should be an exciting game for sure. If Iris can push the series to this game I think it bodes his best chance of winning and advancing to the finals. The problem will be forcing it to go all five games.

Iris seemed particularly fearful of Stork during group selection stages, putting him into Casy’s group despite Casy's request to have anyone but Stork. Iris clearly wanted to avoid Stork then, but now it is finally time that he must face off against the Protoss whom he fears. These two have a small history, having played eight games in the past, with Stork victorious in five of them as well as the most recent three. Iris will want revenge from being kept out of the MSL by Stork, while Stork will be looking to cement positions in both starleague finals. The nature of each of these leagues has seen the Terran competitors outnumber either of the other races, and looking from a practicing standpoint, Stork should have had more preparation for this match-up than Iris in that regard, being able to pull from recent experience. However, Iris is only participating in one league, as well as not having to had play a match just last night, and had more time to prepare for this specific match. Last OSL we saw Iris reach the semi-finals for the first time after three falls in past quarterfinal matches, and he came so close to the finals against Savior. Making the finals was likely his goal at the outset of this OSL, and I don’t see him just giving that up. Stork, on the other hand, was my pick to win this OSL, and I still like his chances. It is about time he lived up to previous expectations and wins something big.

Last 10 Games
Iris: 9-1
Stork: 8-2

Iris (TvP)
Monty Hall: 2-0 (1-0)
Hitchhiker: 4-3 (0-0)
Fantasy: 0-1 (0-1)
Python: 2-1 (0-0)

Stork (PvT)
Monty Hall: 7-3 (4-0)
Hitchhiker: 3-0 (2-0)
Fantasy: 2-0 (1-0)
Python: 7-1 (3-1)

Iris > Stork @ Monty Hall
Iris < Stork @ Hitchhiker
Iris < Stork @ Monghwan
Iris < Stork @ Python
Iris > Stork @ Monty Hall

***
Moderator
FirstBorn
Profile Blog Joined March 2007
Romania3955 Posts
July 05 2007 02:49 GMT
#2
GJ!Nice read. Keep them coming.
SonuvBob: Yes, the majority of TL is college-aged, and thus clearly stupid.
mikeymoo
Profile Blog Joined October 2006
Canada7170 Posts
July 05 2007 03:42 GMT
#3
Why Monty Hall twice? T_T

Looking forward to Fantasy/Monghwan.

Sexy writeup.
o_x | Ow. | 1003 ESPORTS dollars | If you have any questions about bans please PM Kennigit
DJEtterStyle
Profile Blog Joined October 2003
United States2766 Posts
July 05 2007 03:54 GMT
#4
On July 05 2007 10:42 semioldguy wrote:
For Hitchhiker I am not sure where Etter pulls his statistics from (perhaps this season alone) but I have a 32-21 PvT record for Hitchhiker, and that is in favor of Protoss rather than Terran.

I'd like to know the same about your statistics. I have "only" 56 total games played on Hitchhiker, and I'm pulling from KeSPA. Doesn't 53 PvTs just *sound* wrong to you? It's not a Proleague map, and it's only been in two OSL seasons.

I guess if you're counting the masses of PSL games by hand... but other than that, I have no idea how your game tally is so high.
semioldguy
Profile Blog Joined January 2007
United States7488 Posts
Last Edited: 2007-07-05 05:03:43
July 05 2007 04:14 GMT
#5
On July 05 2007 12:54 DJEtterStyle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On July 05 2007 10:42 semioldguy wrote:
For Hitchhiker I am not sure where Etter pulls his statistics from (perhaps this season alone) but I have a 32-21 PvT record for Hitchhiker, and that is in favor of Protoss rather than Terran.

I'd like to know the same about your statistics. I have "only" 56 total games played on Hitchhiker, and I'm pulling from KeSPA. Doesn't 53 PvTs just *sound* wrong to you? It's not a Proleague map, and it's only been in two OSL seasons.

I guess if you're counting the masses of PSL games by hand... but other than that, I have no idea how your game tally is so high.


I did include the PSL games by hand. Without it I have 7-8 PvT (so you're still missing a game by my count). n/m I misremembered.

25-13 for PSL
3-4 for ODT
1-1 for Shinhan 3 OSL
1-2 for OSC
1-1 for Daum OSL

and fixed.
Moderator
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