EPTThanks for the rares - Page 2
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packrat386
United States5077 Posts
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Serejai
6007 Posts
On August 17 2014 21:25 Rekrul wrote: standard fish runs good in 1 bet thinks hes a pro We're not on a boat, son. There are no fish here. | ||
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LeeJohnDong
Ireland58 Posts
On August 18 2014 21:37 Serejai wrote: We're not on a boat, son. There are no fish here. Maybe not, but theres definitely some things that are washed up. | ||
motbob
United States12546 Posts
On August 18 2014 03:30 packrat386 wrote: I feel like this would be a way more meaningful result if the ELO was based on more than just "I think fnatic is like a 1300". I'm not aware of any website that has a calculated elo for dota teams (TLPD pls), but if there was a project to have one, then that would certainly change the betting game. Gosugamers does it. I don't think they've put nearly as much thought into their system as something like Aligulac thought. But it's not just about assigning ELO. The simulation is important because it helps show how likely it is that the best team will win. It's not just "Oh, I think Newbee is the best team, I'll pick Newbee." If TI4 were just a single elimination tournament with best of 3 matches, the odds on teams like EG and DK wouldn't have been justified, since that tournament format lends itself to weird placements (and, as an aside, in retrospect the tournament format at ESL One might have led to iG being overrated coming into TI4). It's important to know how much variance there is in a given tournament format. In a theoretical month-long tournament with Bo3 group stage and Bo5 double elimination, there's not much variance that comes from the tournament format. The best team will probably win. In that instance, the variance in your model comes from how uncertain you are about different teams' true skill. When you're just making a bet on a specific match, the only things that matter are the respective skill of the teams + whether it's Bo1/Bo3/etc, but for a bet on a tournament result, it's more complicated. | ||
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SnowStormer
Norway275 Posts
Great post though! Qualitiy work! | ||
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