EPTGeneral thoughts on picking teams
First, I tried to go for players that felt like they could punch above their cost in FPL points. This automatically removed players such as and Flash (10pts) Rain (12pts) and Jaedong (8pts) from my list, because they cost way too much for a basically uncertain payoff.
Second, I tried to pick three or four "core players" rather than making sure that all my players were point generators, since I didn't want to win by making a bunch of bets and getting lucky, but rather by identifying good player deals.
Third, I thought that Zerg would be pretty gimped following the infestor patch--mainly because Zerg players which did well in prior Proleague rounds and had high $ costs would now underperform their valuations. Hence I tried to avoid relying on Z players to get me points.
Fourth, I thought that with their practice time split between Proleague and international leagues and GSTL, EG-TL would be pretty weak, and definitely not worth the 6$ cost. This impacted my anti- more than my main-team selection.
Fifth, I realized that absolute strength in Fantasy proleague is worth less than relative strength on a team. Basically, an A minus player in a B level team will earn a lot more points than an A player on an A team, because that A minus player will get sent out more, and ace matches are always a chance for huge points.
The team
Main:
Fantasy -- Team captainI picked Fantasy as my captain because he was the most consistent 7-point player. Basically, I ranked him on the same level as Soulkey, but he was cheaper and got to benefit from the "Flash/Rain effect." I felt like there was a 25-30% chance he would be ace in any given match involving SKT1, plus he had a really good record in the last SPL.
StatsI picked Stats because I wanted exposure to what I call the "Flash/Rain effect". Basically, players spend so much time prepping against S-class aces that they suffer when paired against good A-teamers on the same team as the ace. Plus, Stats was cheap at only 5 points, while he accumulated a sick record in the prior season of proleague.
herO[jOin]I picked hero[join] because he had the potential to get big points. He, Baby, and Taeja were the three cheapest aces (all at 7 points). In retrospect, I probably should have traded him for Rain, Flash, or Bogus after his monstrous 2nd week, but I'm still satisfied with the initial pick.
sHyShy was my dark horse. I wasn't expecting him to get more than 15 or 20 points over the course of R1, because I thought WJS would rely on Soulkey as the ace 100% of the time. However, I knew he was a strong player with excellent PvP and there was an off chance he would be sent out as a sniper. Plus, he was on WJS, which I expected to do really well in PL. In retrospect, though, I should have gotten Action and Wooki for what I spent on Shy, but overall I'm satisfied with the choice.
Hyuk --> traded out for Alone prior to week 3I got Hyuk to get me exposure to SKT1, which I felt would do pretty well in the PL, but which I also felt was more expensive than WJS, who I thought would do equally well. Hyuk did just that--never getting sent out and earning 1 point every time SKT1 won. In week 3, I took a gamble and swapped him for Alone because I saw Alone was playing another no-name (Mini). It didn't work out that week, but Alone then beat herO[jOin], so I guess it was a good hedging strategy?
BisAnGI got BisAnG to get exposure to WJS, just like Hyuk and SKT1.
Team:
Woongjin Stars
So I picked Woongjin because they had a +19 game differential in the last season of Proleague. Given that Fantasy pays out more for a 4-0 than a 4-3, that +19 game differential meant a lot of hidden value in WJS for me.
Obviously, I should have picked KT, but I think everyone was surprised by Action and Wooki's ridiculous overperformance this round.
Anti:
JaedongI should have picked Stephano here. I would have picked Stephano had I done my homework and found out he was staying in France for a while. Bad choice on my part. Jaedong did, however, underperform relative to his 8$ valuation, but 16 points is still painful.
IdrAWith Jaedong, Stephano, and Zenio in EG-TL, I just didn't see room for a fourth EG zerg on the lineup.
ClassicOut of all the 3 point players, he had the worst record in the last round of Proleague.
Results
Main: 138 points
Anti: -24 points
Trade tax: -1
Total: 113 points, 33rd place overall
Post-mortem
Things to work on:
I think my strategy did pretty well, but it'll be hard to replicate it next season, because valuations will be a lot more fair.
I also think I should have been a traded more. I should have especially ditched hero[join] after week 2, but I got lazy and didn't do it.
In that same vein, I should have been more tactical. I completely missed EG's weak lineup in W1 versus KT, and that cost me a lot of points, as even though I thought KT was merely mediocre, I could have easily ditched KT week 2 for WJS.
I should have done my homework on Jaedong and Stephano. And I had a great $4 pick as well: Shine.
Things I missed but shouldn't blame myself for:
The performance of KT Rolster this round was extraordinary. As a diehard KT fan, it made me really happy. As a FPL player I was a little bewildered. I don't think anyone predicted the runaway success of KT, and especially the remarkable consistency of Action and Wooki. Hats off to them.
Samsung Khan's horrific underperformance. I thought Khan was overvalued and their last season's performance was kind of flukey, but I didn't expect them to screw the pooch this badly. By extension, Shine's horrific underperformance also deserves mention here. I thought Shine was overvalued, but I didn't know he'd go 0-5.
Overall
A good FPL season, but still many areas of potential improvement. Congrats to everyone who beat me in FPL; I'll get you next time!
