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So, after doing nothing but losing for two days on Starcraft 2, I decided to do something different. Something to calm my mind. But I wasn't sure on what. So I browsed Teamliquid for a bit until a light started shining in my mind.
"Hey, Ro16 group selection was today, wasn't it?"
I figured there would be a thread for the selection ceremony, and indeed it was found quickly. Now, let's see... Group A, not bad... Group B, MMA's gonna get screwed... Group C, **** YEAH BASED JANG MIN-CHUL GETTING THE LUCK OF THE DRAW... Group D...
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WHAT THE ****? This is hands-down the most difficult group in GSL history. Every player has the potential to at least reach the finals. And 2 of the remaining 3 Zergs in the GSL are in it... Paired with a rampaging Genius.
This lone group made me do a preview/prediction for the Ro16, since it's so interesting... It's just the kind of stuff I like, you see. Now, let's get to it.
Group A: EnglishZergman in New York GomTvTLand
Players:
+ Show Spoiler +
This should be a straight-forward group.  MVP gets two Terrans, both of which with average or below average TvT. Then you have the lone Zerg,  Curious, fighting for his life in the middle of Terran territory.
Will move on to the quarter-finals:
» MVP. Two Terrans and a Zerg in his group? Easy peasy. We don't know maps yet, but his impeccable TvT only thwarted by MMA (correct me if I'm wrong) should get him out of this group. I can't see him not get at least a map against Curious if he plays him, but it's very unlikely he doesn't move on to the Round of 8.
» Curious. Ok, I’m assuming MVP gets through GuMiho, which is pretty certain. Now here comes the curveball. Curious is going to lose against aLive. aLive will surely lose against MVP, since it’s a TvT, and MVP doesn’t fail in those. Curious takes out Gumiho, even with Gumiho’s superior vZ win rate (69% vs. 58%), based off his last 5 games, which included a 2-1 win versus Bomber. That and Curious swept Gumiho 3-0 back in Code A October (yeah, it was a while ago, but I’m assuming Curious has Gumiho’s number here). Then, in the final match of the group, it’s bound to be Curious vs. aLive. One would expect aLive to win here, right? Nope. Since aLive is teamless, it’s gonna be slightly harder for him to practice, as opposed to Curious, who lives in the ST teamhouse. Curious will have more builds prepared for Terran as well, since it’s a 3T, 1Z group, him being the lone zerg.
MVP > Gumiho
Curious < aLive
MVP > aLive
Gumiho < Curious
aLive < Curious
Group B: Be Quick or Be Dead
Players:
+ Show Spoiler +
Let me start by saying that MMA will not move on to the next round. He will have to face two Protoss in what is his worst matchup. The only way he wins is with some cute early game pressure or all-ins. In other words, if he wants to live to fight another day, he’s gonna have to be quick.  Oz, on the other hand, has to face two Terrans in what also is his worst matchup. Puzzle, it doesn’t matter all that much. For SuperNoVa, this is a great group. He gets to play against two Protoss in his best matchup, probably avoiding MMA altogether.
Will move on to the quarter-finals:
» Supernova. Oh Supernova, you’re bound to be forever underrated. You ended up getting the lucky… You’re gonna avoid MMA completely. How good is that? Let the Protoss do your dirty work. Supernova’s best matchup is TvP, and he’s facing Puzzle, who has a 58% win rate. However, Puzzle had two terrans in his group, Keen and NaDa, and convincingly dispatched both of them 2-0. Granted, Keen and NaDa’s TvP isn’t on the level of Supernova, but it’s still something to note. Supernova vs Puzzle might just be a great Best of 3. Afterwards, due to MMA’s subpar TvP, and since Oz eliminated MMA last GSL in a 3-2 series (close, yeah I know) he should face Oz in the winners match. He should win it easily.
» Oz. Gonna be close. After beating MMA in the first series, and losing against Supernova in the Winners Final, it all comes down to the Losers Final, which is… MMA vs Puzzle. Yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaah, MMA will be eliminated at the hands of Puzzle. Which brings us to a PvP between Oz and Puzzle. Oz lost only 1 (!) of his last PvP games, which includes a 2-1 win over friggin Inca. Friggin’ Inca, the guy who only wins PvPs, some PvTs, and might as well do nothing in a PvZ since he’s gonna die anyways. Insane, right? Puzzle, on the other way, is quite mixed as of late, losing a 1-2 series against Parting in the Ro32. May be a fun series, but Oz should take it.
MMA < Oz
Puzzle < Supernova
Oz < Supernova
MMA < Puzzle
Oz > Puzzle
Group C: Kratoss… The Wrecking Due
Players:
+ Show Spoiler +
It’s been a while since MC was hyped to be a GSL championship contender. The two-time GSL Champion dropped to Code A in August last year. In October, he lost in the Ro32 to drop out of the GSL completely. He eventually found his way back to Code S in MLG Orlando, holding on to his spot in GSL November 2011. And with a victory at HSC4, a 2nd place finish in Orlando and 6th in Providence, he seems to be back in form. Let’s just hope he doesn’t screw himself up again.
Will move on to the quarter-finals:
» MC. The Kratoss is back, and goddamn, he’s gonna wreck havoc. It’s been a long time, and I think we’re all gonna enjoy it. Just hope he’s here to stay. He should roll over GanZi with relative ease, given it is SlayerSTvP, and we know how that turns out. From there, on Parting should pull an upset against Jjakji. Because he’s an underdog, and we know how underdogs always win, but only after almost losing. From there, we get MC vs Parting and both of which have pretty good PvP, with some limitations. You see, MC has only played PvP with bad or average PvP players as of late, both in the Korean scene and internationally. Parting, on the other hand, has a very small sample size, just 6 televised PvPs, a 2-1 win against Puzzle, who has average PvP, and a 2-1 win against SangHo, who has abysmal PvP. MC should take it 2-1 since he has more experience.
» Parting. This baby’s gonna go far. He basically came outta nowhere last season, in GSL Code A November, and tore TOP, a Code S finalist, Clide, a Code S stalwerd and SangHo, another Code S stalwerd, apart, and left without even giving them his phone number for later fun. Alpha as ****. He then took his Ro32 group 2-0 in series and 4-2 in maps, beating Puzzle and NaDa and, once again, left without asking NaDa for a date. You nerd baller you. After losing to MC, GanZi should take out Jjakji, knocking the GSL Champion to Code A Ro24, given both had already clashed in the Ro32 and GanZi came out on top, not only against Jjakji, but against The Emperor as well. And we get another SlayerSTvP. We know how that turns out…
MC > GanZi
Jjakji < Parting
MC > Parting
GanZi > Jjakji
Parting > GanZi
Group D: Dial D for Death
Players:
+ Show Spoiler +
Don’t you just love this group? I sure do. There’s so much story in it. First off, we’ve got NesTea facing DRG in the first series. Then we have MKP going head-to-head with a blazing Genius. Depending on this, we can see so many good matchups. Nestea vs MKP, a GSL Open Season 2 Finals rematch; DRG vs MKP, two of the best ZvT and TvZ players in the scene; Nestea vs Genius, a 3 time GSL Champion and a resurgent beast; and lastly, DRG vs Genius, which is bound to have some BM mixed in as well, like shown in this season’s Ro32. Goddamn, I love this group.
Will move on to the quarter-finals:
» Genius. Wow. I actually like this guy. I really do. Genius has been hanging out at Code S ever since last January, not making really deep into the tournament, but just doing good enough to stay in it. Other than a Ro8 appearance back in August, nothing else is notable. But now… This guy absolutely wrecked his Up & Down group 4-0, it consisting of BoxeR, Taeja, asd, Squirtle and Cezanne. Ro32? JYP (!), sC (!!) and Dong. ****ing. RaeGu. The hype around him wasn’t all that great, given he had gotten a fairly easy Up & Down group. Well, it should have been greater. He beat the Dong 2-0. No one expected it. Then he beat sC 2-0. No one expected it. The Blizzcon 2010 winner is on a rampage. In the last 2 months of GSL, he went 5-0 in PvT. MKP’s last GSL TvP goes back even further, it being in October. However, he won his last 12 TvPs, both on korean and on international games. All of them. Goddamn. This should be a fun series, but Genius will take it in the end. NesTea vs DongRaeGu is a dreammatch happening, which deserves something like a Ro7. The top two zergs going head to head. Nestea should take it because of the Dong’s slightly inferior ZvZ. Which brings us to Nestea vs Genius. Nestea’s ZvP looks shaky nowadays, with a plethora of losses in overseas tournaments (going to use them as a sample, since Nestea’s only recent real GSL ZvP was in November against HuK, which he lost), most of them being to NaNiwa. Genius, on the other hand, slapped around the Dong in the Ro32, beat Cezanne in the Up & Downs, beat NeeL in Code A, but lost to July in the following round. This series should be a good one, but will be won by Genius in the end.
» MKP. Oh MKP, MKP, MKP. You’re gonna make the wishes of many fans happy the day you play. Why? Because right after Genius beats NesTea, you’re up against DRG, the best ZvT around. And you’re gonna win. Why? Because it isn’t as almighty as it seemed to be. After MMA beat him in the best Starcraft 2 game ever played on GSL (don't shoot me), in the best GSL finals yet, after a 2-1 win against sC in the Ro16, who has been recovering from health issues (no shame in that though, sC is a beast player), after a 2-1 win against Taeja in Code A last season (no shame in that as well), 2 losses from GuMiho and Happy, and a win against Bomber… You get the point. It just doesn’t seem all that godlike anymore. You MKP, however, beat Stephano, arguably the best foreigner, and viOLet 2-0. However, viOLet returned the favor with a 3-2 win for himself later in HSC4. You got also beat by Delphi 2-1 in the same tourney. You beat Zenio 2-0 and Curious 1-0 in the last GSL, though. You can beat DongRaeGu. Then, give Nestea some payback for GSL Open Season 2. For his ZvT isn’t the best nowadays.
Nestea > DongRaeGu
MKP < Genius
Nestea < Genius
DongRaeGu < MKP
Nestea < MKP
This way, our quarter-finals should be:
- IMMvp vs FXOz
- SK.MC vs MarineKingPrime.WE
- oGsSupernova vs STCurious
- STParting vs MVPGenius
Which gives us:
- 3 Terrans
- 1 Zerg
- 4 Protoss (Toss OP!)
+ Show Spoiler +This is the first time I do something like this. Sorry if it's not too easy to read, I'm not the best joker around and might come around as trying too hard. My writing style isn't all that appealing as well, but I tried to explain my thought process as well as I could with my also limited english. For that reason, there may be a lot of grammar and spelling mistakes that escaped my proof-reading. I think I also went a bit overboard with the TLPDizing, but I tried not to use it too much, just once per player per paragraph. Hope you like this, and I'd like any criticism I can take. Hope you enjoyed it ^^
P.S.: I also realize it's a bit early to do any kind of predictions, but I was bored >_>
 
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.......but DRG just finished completely destroying MKP in AoL, and supposedly MKP plays better online than in a booth, I think its gonna be a real coin flip to whether DRG or MKP advances
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United Arab Emirates1141 Posts
Awesome man - you'll do well you in your liquibets 
And yes Toss is currently OP in P v T
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I actually like most of your predictions, and your reasoning.
I just don't like Genius making it out of his group. NesTea has amazing ZvP and ZvZ. I can't see him losing to DRG, or to Genius.
In fact, I imagine NesTea taking a quick 4-0 (maybe 4-1 if DRG takes a game) into the next round. I do agree, though, that MKP will be the second one to come out of the group.
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On January 22 2012 00:48 JesusOurSaviour wrote:Awesome man - you'll do well you in your liquibets And yes Toss is currently OP in P v T
Thanks man ^^
On January 22 2012 00:36 rewired wrote:
.......but DRG just finished completely destroying MKP in AoL, and supposedly MKP plays better online than in a booth, I think its gonna be a real coin flip to whether DRG or MKP advances
I seem to have forgotten to account for AoL altogether... My bad. I guess that changes it a little bit, no? MKP's TvZ hasn't also been in top shape, losing to a then-teamless viOLet... But then again he won 2-0 against Stephano. Can I say that I'm predicting with my heart for this one?
But then again, in Group D, pretty much anything can happen like I said, every player is quarter-final material. It's certainly the most difficult group to predict, but you have a point on how DRG beat MKP in AoL.
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Australia18228 Posts
Shakuras Plateau isn't in the map pool, btw, so Mvp can't choose that.
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On January 22 2012 00:36 rewired wrote:
Can I say that I'm predicting with my heart for this one?
I GUEEEESSSSSSSS you could  its gonna be a fun as hell group to watch as long as it doesn't devolve into mass cheesing I'm pumped for it :D
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On January 22 2012 01:13 Inflicted_ wrote:
Shakuras Plateau isn't in the map pool, btw, so Mvp can't choose that.
Shit, my bad, I'll edit it in, since it doesn't change much, to be honest. TvZ in Shakuras is pretty much a win for the Terran given both players are on an even level, but MVP is better than Curious IMO...
This is what you get from not being able to watch most of the matches due to when they're played, it's hard for me. Then forgetting to take a look at the map pool...
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On January 22 2012 00:36 rewired wrote:
.......but DRG just finished completely destroying MKP in AoL, and supposedly MKP plays better online than in a booth, I think its gonna be a real coin flip to whether DRG or MKP advances
MKP was in Germany during AoL King of Kong so I would not read too much into this series.
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On January 22 2012 02:23 Neelia wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2012 00:36 rewired wrote:
.......but DRG just finished completely destroying MKP in AoL, and supposedly MKP plays better online than in a booth, I think its gonna be a real coin flip to whether DRG or MKP advances MKP was in Germany during AoL King of Kong so I would not read too much into this series.
You mean in Germany where he lost to... Violet....
....
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On January 22 2012 02:26 Itsmedudeman wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2012 02:23 Neelia wrote:On January 22 2012 00:36 rewired wrote:
.......but DRG just finished completely destroying MKP in AoL, and supposedly MKP plays better online than in a booth, I think its gonna be a real coin flip to whether DRG or MKP advances MKP was in Germany during AoL King of Kong so I would not read too much into this series. You mean in Germany where he lost to... Violet.... ....
...? He played his series against DRG from Germany too.
King of Kong was a tournament made especially for you but you only made it to the semi-finals.
When this tournament was announced I felt it was my duty to win no matter what. The conditions didn't work out in my favour though. Since I went to the Homestory Cup in Germany I had to connect to the Korean server from Europe. There was a bit of lag. It was a tournament I really wanted to win so I am disappointed. Since it turned out this way I'll just take it as meaning that my life as a Kong is over this year. I want DRG to succeed me in the Kong Line. Ever since last year he has been demonstrating the qualities of the Kong line.
See http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=304262
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So you think MMA is going to lose to BOTH Puzzle AND Oz.... I understand that Oz beat him last GSL with some very... unique... strategies, but I don't think that it's going to work again. Sure, MMA's TvP is his worst matchup, but it's still amazing. Especially against his team-mate, I don't see him losing (to his primary TvP practise partner).
MMA and Oz could technically go either way, but I honestly see MMA getting his revengance. I think MMA will be 4-2 not 2-4
Edit: MKP is my favourite player, but I don't see him getting through. Both DRG and Nestea will hurt him. Nestea only loses to MVP terran.... that's why people say that his ZvT isn't great... He always gets matched up against MVP. And DRG might not be untouchable, but he is far and away the best ZvT player in the world
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On January 22 2012 02:31 Neelia wrote:Show nested quote +On January 22 2012 02:26 Itsmedudeman wrote:On January 22 2012 02:23 Neelia wrote:On January 22 2012 00:36 rewired wrote:
.......but DRG just finished completely destroying MKP in AoL, and supposedly MKP plays better online than in a booth, I think its gonna be a real coin flip to whether DRG or MKP advances MKP was in Germany during AoL King of Kong so I would not read too much into this series. You mean in Germany where he lost to... Violet.... .... ...? He played his series against DRG from Germany too.
His point is that viOLet is worse than DRG.
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In my opinion, you are giving too little credit to Slayers (coaches) and MMA. Time and again, they have come up with builds and strategies that have caught the rest of the players unawares; be it making the hellion opening standard in TvZ or the memorable TvT series with MVP at Blizzcon.
Secondly, it is a mistake to put MMA's TvP as a bad match-up as he just has not played enough TvP in the last 6 months to be able to judge his skill. In the recent history (6 months), he has played less than 7 games and only 1 BoX series where he lost 3-2 to Oz. Considering that he has improved leaps and bounds as a player since his string of losses against P in June' 11, his TvP may not to stellar but would have improved quite a bit since then. In addition, you must remember that the Slayers coach picked up Oz even though Curious was available. This suggests that Slayers do probably have something in mind for MMA vP.
That said, MMA is not the clear favorite to advance as he would have been if the group was full of Terrans/Zergs. However, I believe that this group is very equally matched and any of the four players without it being called a major upset.
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Good write up.
My only criticism is that it seems a bit cold. Like, your justifications for people's wins come almost entirely from their winrates. I think that will let you down slightly in Liquibets.
Specifically, I think MMA will do better than his TLPD predicts. His coach claimed his TvP has improved greatly from his series vs Oz, and he has practice with Puzzle, who also wants to practice PvT. The mass drop/multitasking MM style of Terran is also coming back after a brief period of wonky all-ins, blanket EMPs and balls of MMMGV, because Protoss are starting to go for earlier 3rds on little tech.
Basically, MMA is good at dropping. And multitasking. And he likes Marines. MMA might not obliterate his group, but he is unlikely to come last.
I also think you hype Parting up too much because of his stats, especially in PvP. His wins of SangHo and Puzzle were more out of their mistakes than his good play. In particular, his micro is sloppy - not good in a PvP against MC. Sure, your prediction of a 2-1 from MC may come true because of the persistently coinflippy nature of PvP, but not because Parting is a beast. This is something you can't tell just from statistics. As you overestimate Parting, I think you underestimate Jjakji. This guy is a GSL Champion for a reason. He, like Nestea, seems to do really well in GSL and less well elsewhere (KSL, ESV, HSC4 qualifiers) because of the extent to which he prepares for his matches. Again, not something you can get from winrates. After seeing his play against Oz and Leenock, I know that if he prepares sneaky strategies he can crush his opponents. I highly doubt Jjakji will get last in his group.
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I think you're overestimating Oz's PvT. Sure he beat MMA, but last season in his games vs jjakji his pvt looked kinda bad. jjakji didn't even play that series that impressively, Oz was just using greedy and screwy builds. I'm pretty sure if MMA uses his trademark aggressiveness and multitasking he'll be able to pick apart Oz's PvT builds like jjakji did.
As for Curious having more builds prepared for Alive because of him being on a team, I doubt it. Zerg isn't Terran, and there are only so many builds a zerg can open up with, and Alive is no slouch.
As for Ganzi, he's been doing pretty well lately, only recently losing to MC and Puzzle in a best of 1, and MVP in GSL October. He's had a lot of time to work on his TvP, so he's probably improved it by now.
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I don't see MMA losing to Oz AND Puzzle. I also don't see MKP taking out Nestea or Nestea taking about DRG.
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Yeah MMA shouldn't lose to Z and puzzle-especially with Puzzle and Brown to practice against and Taeja to help with TvP.
Also, it's been a while since the last patch so the game will have stabilized more, giving more opportunity for funky SlayerS builds as well as allowing MMA to get better at his vP since 1-1-1 isn't as prevalent anymore.
Don't know about ganzi though-he's a very stock player, i could definitely see him having problems but he's still a very strong player.
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Like someone already said, I think you're underestimating jjakji. I don't see him losing to any protoss in his group. He will most likely come out second out of his group and lose to ganzi but he will not lose against protoss players.
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On January 22 2012 07:15 Phemtos wrote:
Like someone already said, I think you're underestimating jjakji. I don't see him losing to any protoss in his group. He will most likely come out second out of his group and lose to ganzi but he will not lose against protoss players.
Hmm. MC definitely has the advantage if the two meet, IMO.
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I approve the MKP march to victory
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Probably not what I'd predict. Guys like MMA and Nestea are so good they generally get through whether logic suggests they will or not. You were harsh on Jjakji too.
Nice read though and most of your logic was pretty sound.
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Group of death!
Nestea>DRG
because DRG will try some bling attacks that nestea will defend perfectly against...
Genius>MKP
Genius's sexiness is too much, MKP ggs
Genius>Nestea
Nestea sucks zvp at the moment
DRG>MKP
repeat of AoL
DRG>Nestea
Nestea's an old man, cannot defend DRG's aggression forever.
Nestea will run banelings into rocks
Nestea will fall off his chair
Nestea will rue the day that he was a jerk and picked DRG in his group.
...lol
DRG and Genius advances!
...and then makes out on camera
:O
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EPT
