disclaimer - i have a seriously bad track record at starcraft betting (thanks for nothing jaedong for failing so horribly in hana daetoo msl just after flash got owned by effort in the osl final) so use this blog at your own risk
So it appears that our TL writing team are sadly unaware of official outlets whereby we can gamble actual cash money on games - whether that's because they're based in the States and can't gamble anywhere and hence they don't know of Pinnacle, I don't know, but the rest of the world can, and so we will. They have lines up for the IPL pool stage:
Huk/Boxer - seems about right. Fancy Boxer may take a game, but not often enough to justify the handicap
Boxer/aLive - 1 unit Boxer +1.5, 1.735 - looks like it's Boxer's best matchup against aLive's worst, kind of think that Boxer will have had superior preparation and can easily nick a game
Huk/Stephano - 1 unit Huk, 2.25 - while I'm fully on the Stephano bandwagon and think he's probably up there with Sen in the best foreign Zerg stakes, I can't really pick against the code S player who's in what TLPD says is his best match when I'm getting odds. Huk having more experience in live events is also kind of useful
Stephano/aLive - leaving this alone
Huk/aLive - again, not touching this
Boxer/Stephano - oh look, Stephano's an overwhelming favourite. I kind of want to pick Boxer to take a game but his TvZ record is kind of terrible, and taking a foreigner against Korean at <1.4 seems wrong just out of general principle
Ret/Strelok - 1 unit Strelok, 2.57 - this is basically as I think Strelok's perenially underrated and has looked pretty good of recent, whereas Ret's been quiet and qualifying for this is more impressive than getting invited. I expect that Ret takes this more than half the time but not enough that there's not an edge here
MC/Ryung - 1 unit Ryung, 1.862 - close to a coinflip, I'll take the guy that's still in code S against the guy in code B in a TvP every day of the week. Feel that MC's being overvalued on name alone here, although I could easily get burned if he's thought of some new post-patch special tactics
Ret/MC - I kind of want to bet on Ret, but man, I just don't see Ret play enough to be confident of his level of play.
Ryung/Strelok - 1 unit Strelok +1.5, 2.16 - if Strelok was to have so much as a 30% winrate against Ryung, this is a profitable bet
MC/Strelok - 1 unit Strelok +1.5, 1.893 - similar to the above, except as I'm getting worse odds I need a bit of a better winrate
Ret/Ryung - line looks about right, leaving this one alone
Thorzain/Select - urgh. Line looks right. I think Thorzain's better, but not better enough where I want to touch this line
Select/Hero - puke. I kind of want to bet Select just based on previous, but think it's close and with the patch in play I kind of think that it makes things about right. Avoiding
Thorzain/Sleep - just avoiding this one as I know little about Sleep at all
Select/Sleep - as above
Thorzain/Hero - 1 unit Thorzain, 1.794 - Thorzain 2-0ed Hero just a couple of weeks ago, which is more recent than Select's win over him, and to me his TvP record looks more impressive than Select's. For those reasons (and that I think Thorzain > Select) I'll make the play here
Hero/Sleep - avoiding again
White-Ra/Idra - 1 unit White-Ra +1.5, 1.694 - is it really that unfeasible that a post-patch White-Ra takes a game off someone who's flown all over the fucking world very recently who doesn't have particularly great vP?
Idra/thestc - stc's vZ record looks good on paper, but looking at it there's a lot of no-names involved in minor cups. I don't know enough here to make a play one way or the other
White-Ra/MMA - 1 unit White-Ra +1.5, 2.28 - MMA riding a 6-game losing streak vs Protoss in Korea. I don't need White-Ra to have that good a win percentage to make this profitable
thestc/MMA - 1 unit MMA, 1.498 - guy is just better
White-Ra/thestc - 1 unit White-Ra +1.5, 1.813 - I think I could just be overrating White-Ra at this stage, but I don't see how they have thestc as greater than a 2-1 favourite in a best of three
Idra/MMA - 1 unit Idra +1.5, 1.917 - 3-0ing Puma plus MMA killing own command centre equity works for me. Then again Idra did lose to Jinro, so I don't know
cliffnotes - bookies have most of them ok, looks to be some value, I love eastern europeans. I probably ought not to be betting 60% of the games so will likely cut some of the more marginal strelok/white-ra bets out
the strelok/white-ra bets are just based on that sc2 is the sort of game where even if you're the best player in the world, it's very, very difficult to have an extremely high win percentage against someone who is above a certain threshold of skill that i think both strelok and white-ra are above. build order losses, misclicks, cheeses, hidden tech, the worse player just being good enough on the day to take a game, map imbalance abuse, individually they're not a big deal but add them all up.
the maths works like this - if someone is even money to win a game (which is what a 2.0 +1.5 line is), then the other guy needs to 2-0. so you basically need to work out the winning probability for a single game so that p(2-0) = 0.5, which is pretty easy to do as it's just the square root of 0.5, so 0.707. so if the favourite only wins 70% of the time, i have a profitable bet by taking the underdog on the handicap. obviously it needs adjusting dependent on the line you have but the general principle is the same
Might put a little money down, maybe like $50 or so. Will spice up the games for me (will give me a vested interest in IPL, something I'm considerably underhyped for) and hopefully I'll make a few bucks.
Remember, general rule of thumb: Korean vs Foreigner = bet on the Korean.
As for my thoughts, Let's see.. I disagree with your HuK vs Stephano bet. Stephano has a proven track record against HuK. I also disagree with your Strelok bets. He's not a high tier foreigner. He has no chance. As much as I love White-Ra, it looks like you're placing too much trust in him. The odds you're betting on for him aren't worth it imo. I also think MMA will crush Idra. MMA has sick TvZ, especially against Idra's style. Puma plays mostly passive, MMA is a multitasking genius which is exactly what Idra has the most trouble against.
On October 06 2011 19:22 jalstar wrote: It's impossible to get eliminated from these games, so I'm betting 1000 ESPORTS dollars that betting on every underdog is a profitable strategy.
interesting but there's obviously a limit, i'm fairly sure nobody was jumping on machine to beat bomber at 9-1 or whatever lol odds it was. although machine somehow did take a game so taking the handicap line would have still been a nice payoff
The MLG group games mattered a lot more than the IPL ones do though.
On October 06 2011 19:22 jalstar wrote: It's impossible to get eliminated from these games, so I'm betting 1000 ESPORTS dollars that betting on every underdog is a profitable strategy.
interesting but there's obviously a limit, i'm fairly sure nobody was jumping on machine to beat bomber at 9-1 or whatever lol odds it was. although machine somehow did take a game so taking the handicap line would have still been a nice payoff
Huk/Boxer - 1 unit Boxer, 2.560 - Boxer is a Korean. HuK (no matter what you may think) is a Foreigner. I honestly believe Boxer has the edge against HuK, and with these odds it was impossible to pass up.
Boxer/aLive - nop {I think alive will win though}
Huk/Stephano - 1 unit Stephano, 1.685 - I'm actually not really on the Stephano bandwagon, although I try and respect his skill. I don't know as much as other Europeans would concerning Stephano, but I do know for a fact that Stephano mops up HuK quite handily most of the time.
Stephano/aLive - leaving this alone {I think alive will win}
Huk/aLive - again, not touching this {I think alive will win}
Boxer/Stephano - 1 unit Boxer, 3.100 - Stephano has subpar offline performance from the little that I know, and Boxer's still a Korean. I think Stephano has the edge but when you take into consideration that pool play has very little effect on the overall tournament, and that Boxer's cheese is one of the best (especially TvZ), the value on this one was too good to ignore.
Ret/Strelok - 1 unit Ret, 1.541 - Strelok is good. Ret is better. TvZ is pretty balanced outside of Korea so Ret should win.
MC/Ryung - 1 unit Ryung, 1.862 - MC's in Code B, Ryung is Code S. It's TvP which is still ridiculously hard to handle. The odds here are pretty bias towards MC, seeing as MC is a foreigner favourite. I personally think MC has no chance against Ryung, unless he's shaped up very recently.
Ret/MC - I also wanted to bet on Ret, but I don't want to break the Korean vs Foreigner rule. {I think Ret will win}
Ryung/Strelok - 1 unit Ryung -1.5 1.735 - Korean TvT is on a different level to Foreigner TvT. The only way I can see Ryung losing a single match is maybe if Strelok does some Hellion opening into Banshees or vice versa, but I still can't see that happening. It would be an upset on a similar scale to qxc beating MVP, which is extremely unlikely.
MC/Strelok - 1 unit MC -1.5, 1.962 - Korean vs Foreigner. I'm a little unsure of this one but MC has some pretty nice PvT all-in builds that Foreigners aren't used to. I can see MC mopping Strelok up, but I can also see the reverse. What I can't see happening is a 2-1 from either side.
Ret/Ryung - 1 unit Ryung 1.556 - Ret plays the game of drones, that's his entire ZvT mindset. Korean Terrans are the sickest drone killers, especially Terran SlayerS (Ganzi vs Leenock, anyone?). I predict a 2-0 easily.
On October 06 2011 21:51 Erucious wrote: Ive been trying to figure out a small thing on that website, but what does the "handicap" mean on certain matches? I dont quite get that in SC2 :-/...
So each match is BO3 right? Apply the handicap with that in mind. So if say, Boxer beats Huk 2-1 but you bet on Boxer having a -1.5 handicap, then you lose the bet because the handicap makes it Boxer 0.5-1 Huk.
It's basically saying you can bet on players going 2-0, which is obviously harder than simply winning.
I can't find anywhere to place the bets. So you can do this with real money online? I'm new to the whole betting thing, because of the post above I think I sort of understand the handicap, you just subtract it from the score? How does that effect the money line compared to them going 2-0?
Nice blog, wouldn't speak for SirJolt but he's not based in the States, he just prefers humorous bets to the real thing (he is all mined out at his main ). Always intested to see the sports like activities that grow up around esports, never been a gambler though!
Huk/Boxer - 1 unit Boxer, 2.560 - Boxer is a Korean. HuK (no matter what you may think) is a Foreigner. I honestly believe Boxer has the edge against HuK, and with these odds it was impossible to pass up.
Boxer/aLive - nop {I think alive will win though}
Huk/Stephano - 1 unit Stephano, 1.685 - I'm actually not really on the Stephano bandwagon, although I try and respect his skill. I don't know as much as other Europeans would concerning Stephano, but I do know for a fact that Stephano mops up HuK quite handily most of the time.
Stephano/aLive - leaving this alone {I think alive will win}
Huk/aLive - again, not touching this {I think alive will win}
Boxer/Stephano - 1 unit Boxer, 3.100 - Stephano has subpar offline performance from the little that I know, and Boxer's still a Korean. I think Stephano has the edge but when you take into consideration that pool play has very little effect on the overall tournament, and that Boxer's cheese is one of the best (especially TvZ), the value on this one was too good to ignore.
Ret/Strelok - 1 unit Ret, 1.541 - Strelok is good. Ret is better. TvZ is pretty balanced outside of Korea so Ret should win.
MC/Ryung - 1 unit Ryung, 1.862 - MC's in Code B, Ryung is Code S. It's TvP which is still ridiculously hard to handle. The odds here are pretty bias towards MC, seeing as MC is a foreigner favourite. I personally think MC has no chance against Ryung, unless he's shaped up very recently.
Ret/MC - I also wanted to bet on Ret, but I don't want to break the Korean vs Foreigner rule. {I think Ret will win}
Ryung/Strelok - 1 unit Ryung -1.5 1.735 - Korean TvT is on a different level to Foreigner TvT. The only way I can see Ryung losing a single match is maybe if Strelok does some Hellion opening into Banshees or vice versa, but I still can't see that happening. It would be an upset on a similar scale to qxc beating MVP, which is extremely unlikely.
MC/Strelok - 1 unit MC -1.5, 1.962 - Korean vs Foreigner. I'm a little unsure of this one but MC has some pretty nice PvT all-in builds that Foreigners aren't used to. I can see MC mopping Strelok up, but I can also see the reverse. What I can't see happening is a 2-1 from either side.
Ret/Ryung - 1 unit Ryung 1.556 - Ret plays the game of drones, that's his entire ZvT mindset. Korean Terrans are the sickest drone killers, especially Terran SlayerS (Ganzi vs Leenock, anyone?). I predict a 2-0 easily.
Ended up basically breaking even, I only ended up about half a unit ahead, according to this anyway. The gambler in me decided to put a little extra on Ryung for the last match and it paid off
I was just about to comment on all your plays - had it written out about 50% too - but then I felt that feeling of -EV disgust in my stomach and deleted it all. It really is a shame that the market is so small and I can't share my feelings about the games before the lines go down :/
You must construct additional peeps in e-sports betting
why yes, yes i did, it happens. meh, small sample, can recover today qq
And I could definitely see you getting every single bet wrong again today. Think you severely underestimated koreans on this one. Idra gets one 3-0 over a teammate in which case he KNEW he was the heavy underdog going in after playing hundreds of practice games, and all of a sudden you go and bet on him against MMA?
These are definitely not the safest bets you have going when you bet against the odds in every single match like that.
And I could definitely see you getting every single bet wrong again today. Think you severely underestimated koreans on this one. Idra gets one 3-0 over a teammate in which case he KNEW he was the heavy underdog going in after playing hundreds of practice games, and all of a sudden you go and bet on him against MMA?
2-8 -6.026u, idra/mma and thorzain/hero bets voided. i see no lines for saturday's games yet but will likely throw something up later today as and when i see them, i kind of like alive -1.5, huk, white-ra, stephano, mma -1.5, thestc -1.5, select, thorzain -1.5, mc, but will make actual plays as and when (if?) lines appear
Sheth vs MMA and Hero vs Puma are pretty good choices today. Also i would probably choose Kiwikaki vs Stephano too.
Well, lets see how this turns out. I'm still a bit confused about the system Pinnaclesports is using, compared to the other places i've been using before.
2u aLive -1.5 1.448 - <3 haypro but outclassed here Demuslim, Boxer +1.5 tempting but no 1u Socke +1.5, 1.735 - good enough PvT to maybe take a game MMA should crush Sheth but line looks OK here 1u Hero +1.5, 1.769 - can our new liquid protoss hero take a game off of Puma? I say... yes! Sleep/Minigun priced about right Huk a bit too short to touch Was going to go with Slush +1.5, then recalled White-Ra's vZ looks decent 1u Violet 1.546 - Strelok let me down Thursday, don't fancy him to take this Tempted with Inori +1.5 given the volatility of PvP but I've never actually seen him play Catz/StC price prohibitively short Stephano lines look right, don't want to touch them 2u Select, 1.389 - just so much better than machine Leaving Idra alone after his qqing about tiredness 1u Thorzain -1.5, 1.8 - can't see Spanishiwa taking a game
wouldnt be so sure about select v machine, machine beat socke, hashe, haypro and demuslim in open bracket, all 2-0 except socke
i think socke can be good, he did lose to machine but took a game off PuMa. he was pretty amazing at SCI but Ryung didn't show his builds yesterday, hard to tell.
Violet vs Strelok is battle of the derps, I think they are both so terrible I can't pick either to win.
These are mine, Puma -1.5 might be iffy but I've never seen him lose a TvP (and I've watched _all_ of them when it actually mattered)
boooooooooooooom, 5-1 in ro32, pulled back to 7-9 overall -3.237u. pity about socke but at least clawed back some of thursday's losses. was getting quite nervous in that second hero/puma game waiting for the terran imbaness to kick in but hero held
EPT![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/el7pT.png)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/PVI2v.png)
). Always intested to see the sports like activities that grow up around esports, never been a gambler though!
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/pxeBu.jpg)
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/CFyHz.png)
