I thought it would be nice if the gambling folk amongst us had a place to discuss bets on upcoming SC2 games. There have been threads like this in the past for specific events, like MLG, and I always thought it was interesting to see the bets people placed.
Here's what I put down for the MLG NA Invitational tomorrow (seems to be a replay cast since the lines are already down bleh)
KiWiKaKivs MajOr for Match. 1.483 1u Kiwikaki has always been very strong PvT and his games at MLG were super solid (almost beat my boy PuMa oo). Major's good, but his TvP leaves something to be desired, that combined with all the drama + his mentor calling him "emotionally retarded" I think his overall motivation will be pretty low.
iNcontroL vs Shethfor Match. 1.248 1.5u Not much to say here, I think inc still has some work to do before he can take vP specialists like Sheth.
SLushvs Tyler for Match.1.401 4u (^_^) -1.5 1.893 2u SLush never really gets talked about but his ZvP results have been impressive(Socke, Tester, Cruncher, Kiwi all 2-0ed) with only 1 loss to HerO. Tyler's recent showing at SCI3 was pretty unimpressive.
Share your bets!
edit: If you don't know what I'm talking about. http://www.pinnaclesports.com/ is offering E-Sports bets. If you don't have anything to contribute or want to share your opinion on the righteousness / moral implications of betting on SC2 please save us and yourself the time. Thanks!
Well they have all the major pros added in their friend list so they can look up when matches are played and invalidate all bets that have been made after the games have started.
They don't seem to like offering lines on replay-casted games (they stopped offering on NASL mid-way through) and I guess they assumed like we did that this was going to be live-cast.
I went with the same bets as you (just bet 2.5€ though *first bet*) KiWiKaKi vs MajOr and iNcontroL vs Sheth but decided to skip the Slush vs Tyler as I don't know enough about the two.
For some reason there is no Esports section on the Pinnacle sports site anymore, does it have anything to do with the casting of already played games, and will I still get the money I placed?
On September 13 2011 23:54 gXxshock wrote: I went with the same bets as you (just bet 2.5€ though *first bet*) KiWiKaKi vs MajOr and iNcontroL vs Sheth but decided to skip the Slush vs Tyler as I don't know enough about the two.
For some reason there is no Esports section on the Pinnacle sports site anymore, does it have anything to do with the casting of already played games, and will I still get the money I placed?
:D I started even lower than that, my first bet was 2.00 EUR.(that was in April oo) The Esports section disappears when there's no lines online. You can check out your pending wagers under My Account > Review Account. Don't worry, your money's still there If you want I can give you some tips I wish I had known before I started.
On September 14 2011 00:12 Montana[TK] wrote:Don't worry, your money's still there If you want I can give you some tips I wish I had known before I started.
That'd be awesome thanks
For the two games I wagered on, I just checked player statistics at www.sc2charts.net/en and I just learned of the TLPD, so I will check that out next time.
These odds and betting sites have been around since SC2 beta even came out, and they put odds on BW as well relax. There isn't an automatic assumption that match fixing will happen for these sites.
They probably close betting before the games happen, not for when the games are actually casted by replays.
Hi :D I don't like you Kiwi bet. Kiwi has strong vT and we haven't seen that much on Major for some time, but the odd is too low imo. Should be at least 1.65. In fact, this odd should make me bet on Major.
On September 14 2011 01:29 MrCon wrote: Hi :D I don't like you Kiwi bet. Kiwi has strong vT and we haven't seen that much on Major for some time, but the odd is too low imo. Should be at least 1.65. In fact, this odd should make me bet on Major.
go for it ;o the more i beat the line by the better^^
Don't forget the first map is Tal'Darim, last time MajOr played TvP on that map he looked pretty clueless (putting Planetaries in weird positions seemingly unable to end the game with his huge advantage) Why am I telling you this :s
On September 14 2011 00:12 Montana[TK] wrote:Don't worry, your money's still there If you want I can give you some tips I wish I had known before I started.
That'd be awesome thanks
For the two games I wagered on, I just checked player statistics at www.sc2charts.net/en and I just learned of the TLPD, so I will check that out next time.
sc2charts is good, if you just want to get a quick overview how good a player is their ranking system is much better than the TLPD ELO (which gives way too much credit to players stomping noobs in weekly cups). I use TLPD a ton for looking at past results.
Try to practice good money management. Optimally you would want to never risk more than 5% of your Bankroll. You can go a little above that if you feel like you have a big edge. A mistake many beginners make is thinking in terms of "who will win the game" which is entirely the wrong way to go about it. If you think that player A is a heavy favorite and will win 70% of the time and see odds of 1.4 you should NEVER bet even though they look good. Odds of 1.4 requite at least a 100/1.4 winrate to be profitable What you should do instead is make your own lines, think of the win percentages and then convert them to the odd format of your choice (I like decimal format), Then once you've got your own lines compare them to those of the sportsbook and place your bets if you see value in any of the lines. You should bet the more the bigger the difference between your lines and those of the sportsbook.
1 particularity of Pinnacle is that the max Wager amount isn't really the max wager. If you are betting on odds that are less than 2 (a favorite) the max wager means "max winnings", meaning you can bet whatever amount you want, as long as the winnings of it are less than max wager. A line of 1.2 with a max wager of 100EUR means you can bet 500EUR. Oh and something not everyone knows (looking at you MrCon ;o), you can repeat that max wager as many times as you want, it's just that the lines will move and deteriorate for you the more you bet.
When you're betting relatively small stakes it's not that important, but the more money - relative to your overall wealth - you bet, the more outcomes of bets will affect your emotions. After losing a couple of big bets in a row you might think "I need to win back my money" and place bets without analyzing them properly beforehand (thinking you "need to bet the line before someone else does"). Don't do that, if you notice that you're emotionally heated up, put down the sportsbook and stop betting for a day, re-evaluate your losing bets and try to figure out ways to minimize your losses the next time.
Manage your risk. It's generally unwise to put all your eggs into one basket. Koreans own white dudes, but you shouldn't blindly bet on Koreans just because of that. For example on the first days of foreign events Koreans might have problems with their equipment / flight / accommodation, you should tread cautiously if you don't know how this will affect the games.
Finally don't pay too much heed to results of online tournaments. Especially with top players it can happen that they feel a tournament isn't really worth their time and they will not prepare / play out-dated build-orders / not care at all. This can skew your analysis for "real" tournaments.
I know writing all this advice down is massively -EV for my own betting, but I think it's ok with the week I had + Show Spoiler +
Wow thanks for this awesome post, should be stickied
I still have some questions though, if you don't mind answering.
On September 14 2011 02:57 Montana[TK] wrote: Odds of 1.4 requite at least a 100/1.4 winrate to be profitable
So I should always check the odds and see if 1/odds = req. win percentage for break even < win percentage of player I bid on [acquired through research] (so in your example 1/1.4 = 71% Win percentage) otherwise its a risky bet?
On September 14 2011 02:57 Montana[TK] wrote: thinking you "need to bet the line before someone else does"
Could you explain how the lines move? I figured that they set an initial line and then when people bet, the amount of money set on a specific player moves the line proportionally. So early betting might be favorable if the sportsbook was "wrong", while late betting could be profitable when the general public has the "wrong" idea about the players.
And one thing you did not cover: handicap bets ... are they worth it? And if so when do you play them (i.e. when estimated Win percentage is 20% more than calculated break even Win percentage?
not risky, just a bad bet that will lose you money "over time".
lines movement is a function of the amount that has already been bet vs. what you are betting. So if you are one of the first ones to bet and you bet the maximum you're often able to move the line a whole 0.1-0.2 points. Your analysis is correct.
If handicap bets are worth it or not is up for you to decide They have the same juice so there shouldn't be a big difference, they have a little more variance since 1 set often makes the difference. It depends on your analysis.
overall pretty happy with my bets, kiwikaki decided not to play like he did at mlg, which is a bit disappointing but there's no way of knowing that beforehand. MrCon was probably right, Major would've been a good bet here regardless of past results, because Kiwi can be really on and off with his play and there was nothing to base Major's expected performance at this tourney off of. slush vs tyler i got really good odds and the series almost ended 2-0, shit happens
EPT
There have been threads like this in the past for specific events, like MLG, and I always thought it was interesting to see the bets people placed.
KiWiKaKi vs 
MajOr for Match. 1.483 1u
Sheth for Match. 1.248 1.5u
If you want I can give you some tips I wish I had known before I started.![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/R7RDx.png)
