NASL Prospectus: division predictions with TLPDELO

Primadog

United States4411 Posts

May 03 2011 06:17 GMT

Spreadsheets

In an attempt to improve the Fantasy NASL Draft Guide (and more importantly, my team standings) for the next season, I have been researching how real sports ranking and projection actually works. This is a preliminary attempt to use TLPD's player ELO to predict NASL Season 1 in style of Sagarin Ranking.

If I don't put an picture here, nobody will keep reading.

Methodology

The only inputs used for this projection are TLPD ELO (International) and the current NASL records/points of each player. Perceived strength, racial match-up statistics, server used, and other intangibles are not used for this projection to simplify calculation. Further details can be found under Formulas or the spreadsheet.

Results for each game are projected using the expected score per matchup, and further combined to project the record and point as specified by NASL.

Projection - Week 3

Top 2 of each division (10 players)

Div 1: (Z)

Moon (7-2, 7pt) (Z)

Sheth (7-2, 8pt)
Div 2: (Z)

DarKFoRcE (6-3, 2pt) (P)

White-Ra (6-3, 3pt)
Div 3: (P)

NaNiwa (7-2, 12pt) (T)

Strelok (8-1, 9pt)
Div 4: (Z)

Ace (8-1, 12pt) (T)

SeleCT (6-3, 6pt)
Div 5: (T)

IdrA (8-1, 12pt) (T)

ClouD (6-3, 5pt)

Qualify for playoffs (20 players)

Socke,

KiWiKaKi,

HasuObs,

Ret,

TLO

MorroW,

CrunCher,

SLush,

Fenix,

iNcontroL

BRAT_OK,

Squirtle,

Zenio,

Ensnare,

July

NaDa,

MC,

BoxeR,

Sen,

KawaiiRice

Qualify for season 2 (4 players)

SjoW,

MoMaN,

dde,

Tyler

Relegated from NASL (16 players)

Axslav,

MaNa,

TT1,

Grubby,

Stalife

RainBOw,

Drewbie,

qxc,

Machine,

CatZ

ViBE,

GoOdy,

HayprO,

mOOnGLaDe, (T)

PainUser,

Artosis

Thoughts

The results pass the eyeball test - none of the projection are particularly jarring - giving me some assurance of my methodology. My biggest concern is the lack of separation between the wheat and the chaff in Division 2, but not surprising considering the parity within this particular division. Additionally, the accuracy of the TLPD.I rating of some players are suspect due to low recorded plays (July and Rainbow). Hopefully with one or two more weeks of results, the projection can be a bit more reliable.

Projected Standings - Week 3

+ Show Spoiler [Division 1] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


Sheth		2211	7	8
Moon		2196	7	7
KiWiKaKi	2219	6	5
TLO		2186	6	6
MorroW		2136	6	3
Fenix		2060	5	3
Grubby		2104	3	-3
Rainbow		2066	3	-6
ViBE		2021	2	-9
Artosis		1885	1	-13

+ Show Spoiler [Division 2] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


DarKFoRcE	2169	6	2
White-Ra	2151	6	3
CrunCher	2219	5	4
iNcontroL	2059	5	1
Ensnare		2123	5	2
July		2086	5	1
SjoW		2130	4	-1
MoMaN		2114	4	-1
TT1		2056	3	-4
qxc		2109	3	-7

+ Show Spoiler [Division 3] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


Strelok		2272	8	9
Naniwa		2339	7	12
Slush		2137	5	1
Squirtle	2149	5	1
Nada		2122	5	0
Kawaiirice	2155	4	0
dde		2135	4	-1
Axslav		2130	3	-3
Haypro		2077	2	-9
Moonglade	2047	2	-10

+ Show Spoiler [Division 4] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


Ace		2337	8	12
SeleCT		2218	6	6
Hasuobs		2300	6	4
Ret		2237	6	5
Brat_OK		2235	5	1
MC		2284	4	1
Stalife		2110	3	-7
Machine		2071	3	-7
Catz		2061	2	-7
Goody		2121	2	-8

+ Show Spoiler [Division 5] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


IdrA		2297	8	12
Cloud		2242	6	5
Socke		2231	6	5
Zenio		2168	5	1
Boxer		2112	4	-1
Sen		2132	4	1
Tyler		2141	4	-2
Mana		2074	3	-5
Drewbie		2113	3	-6
Painuser	2000	1	-10

Formulas

+ Show Spoiler [Projecting a game result] +

A player's expected score is his probability of winning. Thus an expected score of 0.75 could represent a 75% chance of winning and 25% chance of losing.

If a game has been played, a win is equal to an expected score of 1.0 and a lose is equal to an expected score of 0.0. If a game has not been played, an expected score E is determined for each match-up. It is calculated using an the TLPD.I rating of the two players in the match using the following formula,

$[image loading]$ . where $[image loading]$ and $[image loading]$

Example: NASL day 4-5 game 3 is a matchup between (T)

IdrA (2297) and (T)

PainUser (2000). Expected score of (T)

IdrA in this matchup is 0.85. In the other words, (T)

IdrA is expected to win 85% of games he played against (T)

PainUser, based solely on their TLPD.I rating.

An aside on the ELO formula: Rating spread of 100 means the better player is twice as likely to win the matchup. Rating spread of 200 means about three times as likely. Rating spread of 400 means about ten times as likely.

+ Show Spoiler [Projecting record and points] +

All match-ups in NASL divisional play is best-of-3 (bo3). A player's record in NASL is the number of division matchup won by the player. A player's points in NASL are the number of individual game wins minus the individual game loses of the player in divisional play. Record has a value range between 0 and 9 and points have a value range between -18 and 18. If a matchup has been played, the record and points of that matchup are the actual results, otherwise the following formulas are used:

Each match-up is a bo3 with game 3 not played if the results are already determined (WW or LL). The possible winning permutations then are WLW, WW, LWW, with the possible losing permutations of a bo3 are WLL, LL, LWL. Projected record R is determined using expected value E for a win and 1-E:

Projected Record = expected value of WLW or WW or LWW 
R = E * (1-E) * E + E * E + (1-E) * E  * E 
R = 2 * E * E * (1-E) + E * E

The projected points P is the number of games won minus the games lost in all permutations:

Projected Points = Expected value of WW, LL, WLW, WLL, LWW, LWL
P = 2 * EE - 2 * (1-E)(1-E) + E(1-E)E - E(1-E)(1-E) + (1-E)EE - (1-E)E(1-E)
P = 2 * [ E(1-E)(1-E) + EE(1-E) + EE + (1-E)(1-E) ]

Example: Continuing the previous example of Day 4-5 game 3, the projected record of IdrA for this matchup is .94 with 1.57 point; and the projected record of Painuser for this matchup is .06 with -1.57 point. Notice that .94 + .06 = 1 and 1.57 + (-1.57) = 0 as expected.

References

Primadog

United States4411 Posts

May 03 2011 06:18 GMT

+ Show Spoiler [archive for retrospection] +

Projections - Week 3

Projection

Top 2 of each division - (10 players)

Div 1: Moon (7-2, 7pt) Sheth (7-2, 8pt)
Div 2: DarKFoRcE (6-3, 2pt) White-Ra (6-3, 3pt)
Div 3: NaNiwa (7-2, 12pt) Strelok (8-1, 9pt)
Div 4: ACE (8-1, 12pt) SeleCT (6-3, 6pt)
Div 5: IdrA (8-1, 12pt) ClouD (6-3, 5pt)

Qualify for playoffs - (20 players)

Socke,

KiWiKaKi,

HasuObs,

Ret,

TLO

MorroW,

CrunCher,

SLush,

Fenix,

iNcontroL

BRAT_OK,

Squirtle,

Zenio,

Ensnare,

July

NaDa,

MC,

BoxeR,

Sen,

KawaiiRice

Qualify for season 2 - (4 players)

SjoW,

MoMaN,

dde,

Tyler

Relegated from NASL - (16 players)

Axslav,

MaNa,

TT1,

Grubby,

Stalife

RainBOw,

Drewbie,

qxc,

Machine,

CatZ

ViBE,

GoOdy,

HayprO,

mOOnGLaDe, (T)

PainUser,

Artosis

Projected Standings

+ Show Spoiler [Division 1] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


Sheth		2211	7	8
Moon		2196	7	7
KiWiKaKi	2219	6	5
TLO		2186	6	6
MorroW		2136	6	3
Fenix		2060	5	3
Grubby		2104	3	-3
Rainbow		2066	3	-6
ViBE		2021	2	-9
Artosis		1885	1	-13

+ Show Spoiler [Division 2] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


DarKFoRcE	2169	6	2
White-Ra	2151	6	3
CrunCher	2219	5	4
iNcontroL	2059	5	1
Ensnare		2123	5	2
July		2086	5	1
SjoW		2130	4	-1
MoMaN		2114	4	-1
TT1		2056	3	-4
qxc		2109	3	-7

+ Show Spoiler [Division 3] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


Strelok		2272	8	9
Naniwa		2339	7	12
Slush		2137	5	1
Squirtle	2149	5	1
Nada		2122	5	0
Kawaiirice	2155	4	0
dde		2135	4	-1
Axslav		2130	3	-3
Haypro		2077	2	-9
Moonglade	2047	2	-10

+ Show Spoiler [Division 4] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


Ace		2337	8	12
SeleCT		2218	6	6
Hasuobs		2300	6	4
Ret		2237	6	5
Brat_OK		2235	5	1
MC		2284	4	1
Stalife		2110	3	-7
Machine		2071	3	-7
Catz		2061	2	-7
Goody		2121	2	-8

+ Show Spoiler [Division 5] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


IdrA		2297	8	12
Cloud		2242	6	5
Socke		2231	6	5
Zenio		2168	5	1
Boxer		2112	4	-1
Sen		2132	4	1
Tyler		2141	4	-2
Mana		2074	3	-5
Drewbie		2113	3	-6
Painuser	2000	1	-10

bkrow

Australia8532 Posts

May 03 2011 06:59 GMT

Hey - that is pretty awesome; but the Korean players would have entries in the Korean section of the database; they are separate (i think) so based purely on Internationa ELO - they still qualify?

Epic

Mailing

United States3087 Posts

May 05 2011 07:14 GMT

You should make a thread with this in Community and regularly update it, it is really nice.

Xeris

Iran17695 Posts

May 05 2011 17:55 GMT

interesting! =D !

MotherOfRunes

Germany2862 Posts

May 06 2011 06:44 GMT

i smell highlight inc

Primadog

United States4411 Posts

May 10 2011 06:41 GMT

NASL Projections Spreadsheet - Week 4

NASL Format
At the end of the season the top 2 in each division will qualify to be flown to our live-finals. The remaining players will be ranked. The top 20 will have a playoffs where 5 of them will be selected to continue on to the live-finals. The bottom 16 players will be relegated from the league and will have to re-qualify if they wish to play next season.

NASL Projections - Week 4

Automatic placement in the Grand Finals (10 players)

Sheth (7-2, 9pt), Fenix (7-2, 8pt)
DarKFoRcE (6-3, 4pt), White-Ra (5-4, 2pt)
Strelok (8-1, 9pt), NaNiwa (8-1, 14pt)
Ace (7-2, 10pt), SeleCT (7-2, 8pt)
IdrA (8-1, 13pt) Socke (6-3, 5pt)

Qualify for the Playoffs (20 players)

Alive for season 2 (4 players)
(Z)

ViBE,

MoMaN,

dde,

KawaiiRice

Relegated from NASL (16 players)

Changes from Week 3 Projections

Moon's (3-1) surprise lost to MorroW bumps him down from the favorite of Division 1, so the Prospectus naturally favors the still-perfect Fenix (4-0). However, there's still a significant lack of separation between the Top 2 and rest of the pack, that along with the relatively weak schedule Fenix has faced implies that the second automatic spot remains at large.
Socke 's (3-1) convincing win over ClouD (3-1) puts him in the prime position for the second Grand Finale spot of Division 5. With the other major contenders of the division (Zenio, Sen, Boxer) beating each other in a standstill, this Protoss has the clearest path to represent Division 5 with IdrA.
Tyler's (1-3) ails has a surprising beneficiary - Division 1's ViBE (1-3), whom just secured his first win after a bumpy start. For now, the Prospectus projects ViBE to survive to the 2nd Season over Tyler.
CrunCher's (1-3) month of miracles has ended, and the monsters within Division 2 are happy to jostle for position in his wake. With both SjoW (2-2) and TT1 (2-2) coming off strong performances this week, this 8-deep division can easily send half its members to the playoffs.
The biggest loser from Division 2's rise is KawaiiRice (1-3), whose stocks continue to free-fall and is at the edge of relegation.

Closing words

With 20% changes in Week 4 Projection over Week 3's, the outcome of NASL Season 1 Divisional Play remains volatile. While clear leaders have emerged, the tides of fortune can and will shift. The next two weeks will be critical to determine who will be in reach of the $50,000 grand prize, and who will crush and fall from the league.

Projected standings - Week 4

+ Show Spoiler [Division 1] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


Sheth		2221	7	9
Fenix		2177	7	8
MorroW		2183	6	5
Moon		2189	6	5
KiWiKaKi	2228	5	4
TLO		2168	5	2
ViBE		2108	3	-4
Rainbow		2035	3	-6
Grubby		2087	2	-7
Artosis		1880	1	-15

+ Show Spoiler [Division 2] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


DarKFoRcE	2168	6	4
White-Ra	2131	5	2
July		2113	5	4
SjoW		2146	5	2
TT1		2136	5	1
iNcontroL	2067	5	-1
Ensnare		2132	5	2
MoMaN		2156	4	0
CrunCher	2067	3	-5
qxc		2071	2	-8

+ Show Spoiler [Division 3] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


Strelok		2280	8	9
Naniwa		2394	8	14
Squirtle	2172	5	3
Slush		2157	5	0
Nada		2126	5	0
dde		2169	4	-3
Kawaiirice	2153	3	-3
Axslav		2137	3	-3
Moonglade	2077	2	-7
Haypro		2047	1	-10

+ Show Spoiler [Division 4] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


Ace		2329	7	10
SeleCT		2233	7	8
Hasuobs		2280	6	4
Brat_OK		2213	6	2
Ret		2178	6	3
MC		2294	5	2
Stalife		2135	3	-6
Machine		2057	2	-8
Catz		2067	2	-6
Goody		2149	2	-8

+ Show Spoiler [Division 5] +

Name		ELO	Record	Points


IdrA		2330	8	13
Socke		2254	6	5
Cloud		2225	6	4
Sen		2141	5	3
Boxer		2112	5	1
Zenio		2153	4	-1
Mana		2109	3	-5
Drewbie		2117	3	-6
Tyler		2099	3	-5
Painuser	2011	1	-10

More on Week 4...

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