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Spreadsheets
In an attempt to improve the Fantasy NASL Draft Guide (and more importantly, my team standings) for the next season, I have been researching how real sports ranking and projection actually works. This is a preliminary attempt to use TLPD's player ELO to predict NASL Season 1 in style of Sagarin Ranking.
![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/gSS6A.jpg) ![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/utvQB.png) ![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/3DzXe.jpg) If I don't put an picture here, nobody will keep reading.
Methodology
The only inputs used for this projection are TLPD ELO (International) and the current NASL records/points of each player. Perceived strength, racial match-up statistics, server used, and other intangibles are not used for this projection to simplify calculation. Further details can be found under Formulas or the spreadsheet.
Results for each game are projected using the expected score per matchup, and further combined to project the record and point as specified by NASL.
Projection - Week 3
Top 2 of each division (10 players) Div 1:  Moon (7-2, 7pt) Sheth (7-2, 8pt) Div 2: DarKFoRcE (6-3, 2pt)  White-Ra (6-3, 3pt) Div 3: NaNiwa (7-2, 12pt)  Strelok (8-1, 9pt) Div 4: Ace (8-1, 12pt) SeleCT (6-3, 6pt) Div 5: IdrA (8-1, 12pt) ClouD (6-3, 5pt)
Qualify for playoffs (20 players) Socke, KiWiKaKi, HasuObs, Ret, TLOMorroW, CrunCher, SLush, Fenix, iNcontroLBRAT_OK, Squirtle, Zenio, Ensnare, JulyNaDa, MC, BoxeR, Sen, KawaiiRice
Qualify for season 2 (4 players)
Relegated from NASL (16 players) Axslav, MaNa, TT1, Grubby, StalifeRainBOw, Drewbie, qxc, Machine, CatZViBE, GoOdy, HayprO, mOOnGLaDe, PainUser, Artosis
Thoughts
The results pass the eyeball test - none of the projection are particularly jarring - giving me some assurance of my methodology. My biggest concern is the lack of separation between the wheat and the chaff in Division 2, but not surprising considering the parity within this particular division. Additionally, the accuracy of the TLPD.I rating of some players are suspect due to low recorded plays (July and Rainbow). Hopefully with one or two more weeks of results, the projection can be a bit more reliable.
Projected Standings - Week 3
+ Show Spoiler [Division 1] +Name ELO Record Points
Sheth 2211 7 8
Moon 2196 7 7
KiWiKaKi 2219 6 5
TLO 2186 6 6
MorroW 2136 6 3
Fenix 2060 5 3
Grubby 2104 3 -3
Rainbow 2066 3 -6
ViBE 2021 2 -9
Artosis 1885 1 -13
+ Show Spoiler [Division 2] +Name ELO Record Points
DarKFoRcE 2169 6 2
White-Ra 2151 6 3
CrunCher 2219 5 4
iNcontroL 2059 5 1
Ensnare 2123 5 2
July 2086 5 1
SjoW 2130 4 -1
MoMaN 2114 4 -1
TT1 2056 3 -4
qxc 2109 3 -7
+ Show Spoiler [Division 3] +Name ELO Record Points
Strelok 2272 8 9
Naniwa 2339 7 12
Slush 2137 5 1
Squirtle 2149 5 1
Nada 2122 5 0
Kawaiirice 2155 4 0
dde 2135 4 -1
Axslav 2130 3 -3
Haypro 2077 2 -9
Moonglade 2047 2 -10
+ Show Spoiler [Division 4] +Name ELO Record Points
Ace 2337 8 12
SeleCT 2218 6 6
Hasuobs 2300 6 4
Ret 2237 6 5
Brat_OK 2235 5 1
MC 2284 4 1
Stalife 2110 3 -7
Machine 2071 3 -7
Catz 2061 2 -7
Goody 2121 2 -8
+ Show Spoiler [Division 5] +Name ELO Record Points
IdrA 2297 8 12
Cloud 2242 6 5
Socke 2231 6 5
Zenio 2168 5 1
Boxer 2112 4 -1
Sen 2132 4 1
Tyler 2141 4 -2
Mana 2074 3 -5
Drewbie 2113 3 -6
Painuser 2000 1 -10
Formulas
+ Show Spoiler [Projecting a game result] +A player's expected score is his probability of winning. Thus an expected score of 0.75 could represent a 75% chance of winning and 25% chance of losing. If a game has been played, a win is equal to an expected score of 1.0 and a lose is equal to an expected score of 0.0. If a game has not been played, an expected score E is determined for each match-up. It is calculated using an the TLPD.I rating of the two players in the match using the following formula, Example: NASL day 4-5 game 3 is a matchup between IdrA (2297) and PainUser (2000). Expected score of IdrA in this matchup is 0.85. In the other words, IdrA is expected to win 85% of games he played against PainUser, based solely on their TLPD.I rating. An aside on the ELO formula: Rating spread of 100 means the better player is twice as likely to win the matchup. Rating spread of 200 means about three times as likely. Rating spread of 400 means about ten times as likely.
+ Show Spoiler [Projecting record and points] +All match-ups in NASL divisional play is best-of-3 (bo3). A player's record in NASL is the number of division matchup won by the player. A player's points in NASL are the number of individual game wins minus the individual game loses of the player in divisional play. Record has a value range between 0 and 9 and points have a value range between -18 and 18. If a matchup has been played, the record and points of that matchup are the actual results, otherwise the following formulas are used: Each match-up is a bo3 with game 3 not played if the results are already determined (WW or LL). The possible winning permutations then are WLW, WW, LWW, with the possible losing permutations of a bo3 are WLL, LL, LWL. Projected record R is determined using expected value E for a win and 1-E: Projected Record = expected value of WLW or WW or LWW
R = E * (1-E) * E + E * E + (1-E) * E * E
R = 2 * E * E * (1-E) + E * E The projected points P is the number of games won minus the games lost in all permutations: Projected Points = Expected value of WW, LL, WLW, WLL, LWW, LWL
P = 2 * EE - 2 * (1-E)(1-E) + E(1-E)E - E(1-E)(1-E) + (1-E)EE - (1-E)E(1-E)
P = 2 * [ E(1-E)(1-E) + EE(1-E) + EE + (1-E)(1-E) ] Example: Continuing the previous example of Day 4-5 game 3, the projected record of IdrA for this matchup is .94 with 1.57 point; and the projected record of Painuser for this matchup is .06 with -1.57 point. Notice that .94 + .06 = 1 and 1.57 + (-1.57) = 0 as expected.
References
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+ Show Spoiler [archive for retrospection] +Projections - Week 3Projection Top 2 of each division - (10 players) - Div 1: Moon (7-2, 7pt) Sheth (7-2, 8pt)
- Div 2: DarKFoRcE (6-3, 2pt) White-Ra (6-3, 3pt)
- Div 3: NaNiwa (7-2, 12pt) Strelok (8-1, 9pt)
- Div 4: ACE (8-1, 12pt) SeleCT (6-3, 6pt)
- Div 5: IdrA (8-1, 12pt) ClouD (6-3, 5pt)
Qualify for playoffs - (20 players) Socke, KiWiKaKi, HasuObs, Ret, TLOMorroW, CrunCher, SLush, Fenix, iNcontroLBRAT_OK, Squirtle, Zenio, Ensnare, JulyNaDa, MC, BoxeR, Sen, KawaiiRice Qualify for season 2 - (4 players) Relegated from NASL - (16 players) Axslav, MaNa, TT1, Grubby, StalifeRainBOw, Drewbie, qxc, Machine, CatZViBE, GoOdy, HayprO, mOOnGLaDe, PainUser, Artosis Projected Standings + Show Spoiler [Division 1] +Name ELO Record Points
Sheth 2211 7 8
Moon 2196 7 7
KiWiKaKi 2219 6 5
TLO 2186 6 6
MorroW 2136 6 3
Fenix 2060 5 3
Grubby 2104 3 -3
Rainbow 2066 3 -6
ViBE 2021 2 -9
Artosis 1885 1 -13
Name ELO Record Points
DarKFoRcE 2169 6 2
White-Ra 2151 6 3
CrunCher 2219 5 4
iNcontroL 2059 5 1
Ensnare 2123 5 2
July 2086 5 1
SjoW 2130 4 -1
MoMaN 2114 4 -1
TT1 2056 3 -4
qxc 2109 3 -7
Name ELO Record Points
Strelok 2272 8 9
Naniwa 2339 7 12
Slush 2137 5 1
Squirtle 2149 5 1
Nada 2122 5 0
Kawaiirice 2155 4 0
dde 2135 4 -1
Axslav 2130 3 -3
Haypro 2077 2 -9
Moonglade 2047 2 -10
Name ELO Record Points
Ace 2337 8 12
SeleCT 2218 6 6
Hasuobs 2300 6 4
Ret 2237 6 5
Brat_OK 2235 5 1
MC 2284 4 1
Stalife 2110 3 -7
Machine 2071 3 -7
Catz 2061 2 -7
Goody 2121 2 -8
Name ELO Record Points
IdrA 2297 8 12
Cloud 2242 6 5
Socke 2231 6 5
Zenio 2168 5 1
Boxer 2112 4 -1
Sen 2132 4 1
Tyler 2141 4 -2
Mana 2074 3 -5
Drewbie 2113 3 -6
Painuser 2000 1 -10
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Australia8532 Posts
Hey - that is pretty awesome; but the Korean players would have entries in the Korean section of the database; they are separate (i think) so based purely on Internationa ELO - they still qualify?
Epic 
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You should make a thread with this in Community and regularly update it, it is really nice.
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NASL Format
At the end of the season the top 2 in each division will qualify to be flown to our live-finals. The remaining players will be ranked. The top 20 will have a playoffs where 5 of them will be selected to continue on to the live-finals. The bottom 16 players will be relegated from the league and will have to re-qualify if they wish to play next season.
NASL Projections - Week 4
Automatic placement in the Grand Finals (10 players) - Sheth (7-2, 9pt), Fenix (7-2, 8pt)
- DarKFoRcE (6-3, 4pt), White-Ra (5-4, 2pt)
- Strelok (8-1, 9pt), NaNiwa (8-1, 14pt)
- Ace (7-2, 10pt), SeleCT (7-2, 8pt)
- IdrA (8-1, 13pt) Socke (6-3, 5pt)
Qualify for the Playoffs (20 players) - MorroW, Moon, KiWiKaKi, TLO
- July, SjoW, TT1, iNcontroL, Ensnare
- Squirtle, SLush, NaDa
- HasuObs, BRAT_OK, Ret, MC
- ClouD, Sen, BoxeR, Zenio
Relegated from NASL (16 players) - RainBOw, Grubby, Artosis
- CrunCher, qxc
- Axslav, mOOnGLaDe, HayprO
- Stalife, Machine, CatZ, GoOdy
- MaNa, Drewbie, Tyler, PainUser
- Moon's (3-1) surprise lost to MorroW bumps him down from the favorite of Division 1, so the Prospectus naturally favors the still-perfect Fenix (4-0). However, there's still a significant lack of separation between the Top 2 and rest of the pack, that along with the relatively weak schedule Fenix has faced implies that the second automatic spot remains at large.
- Socke 's (3-1) convincing win over ClouD (3-1) puts him in the prime position for the second Grand Finale spot of Division 5. With the other major contenders of the division (Zenio, Sen, Boxer) beating each other in a standstill, this Protoss has the clearest path to represent Division 5 with IdrA.
- Tyler's (1-3) ails has a surprising beneficiary - Division 1's ViBE (1-3), whom just secured his first win after a bumpy start. For now, the Prospectus projects ViBE to survive to the 2nd Season over Tyler.
- CrunCher's (1-3) month of miracles has ended, and the monsters within Division 2 are happy to jostle for position in his wake. With both SjoW (2-2) and TT1 (2-2) coming off strong performances this week, this 8-deep division can easily send half its members to the playoffs.
- The biggest loser from Division 2's rise is KawaiiRice (1-3), whose stocks continue to free-fall and is at the edge of relegation.
Closing words
With 20% changes in Week 4 Projection over Week 3's, the outcome of NASL Season 1 Divisional Play remains volatile. While clear leaders have emerged, the tides of fortune can and will shift. The next two weeks will be critical to determine who will be in reach of the $50,000 grand prize, and who will crush and fall from the league.
Projected standings - Week 4
+ Show Spoiler [Division 1] +Name ELO Record Points
Sheth 2221 7 9
Fenix 2177 7 8
MorroW 2183 6 5
Moon 2189 6 5
KiWiKaKi 2228 5 4
TLO 2168 5 2
ViBE 2108 3 -4
Rainbow 2035 3 -6
Grubby 2087 2 -7
Artosis 1880 1 -15
+ Show Spoiler [Division 2] +Name ELO Record Points
DarKFoRcE 2168 6 4
White-Ra 2131 5 2
July 2113 5 4
SjoW 2146 5 2
TT1 2136 5 1
iNcontroL 2067 5 -1
Ensnare 2132 5 2
MoMaN 2156 4 0
CrunCher 2067 3 -5
qxc 2071 2 -8
+ Show Spoiler [Division 3] +Name ELO Record Points
Strelok 2280 8 9
Naniwa 2394 8 14
Squirtle 2172 5 3
Slush 2157 5 0
Nada 2126 5 0
dde 2169 4 -3
Kawaiirice 2153 3 -3
Axslav 2137 3 -3
Moonglade 2077 2 -7
Haypro 2047 1 -10
+ Show Spoiler [Division 4] +Name ELO Record Points
Ace 2329 7 10
SeleCT 2233 7 8
Hasuobs 2280 6 4
Brat_OK 2213 6 2
Ret 2178 6 3
MC 2294 5 2
Stalife 2135 3 -6
Machine 2057 2 -8
Catz 2067 2 -6
Goody 2149 2 -8
+ Show Spoiler [Division 5] +Name ELO Record Points
IdrA 2330 8 13
Socke 2254 6 5
Cloud 2225 6 4
Sen 2141 5 3
Boxer 2112 5 1
Zenio 2153 4 -1
Mana 2109 3 -5
Drewbie 2117 3 -6
Tyler 2099 3 -5
Painuser 2011 1 -10
More on Week 4...
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EPT![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/c/2/e/c2eecfeb247543d45ced6cc8871cfd97.png)
. where ![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/d/c/9/dc9a6f0ad70b86ed17cfd64cfa37b922.png)
and ![[image loading]](http://upload.wikimedia.org/math/c/5/e/c5e734efd10fa149568386835828074c.png)
![[image loading]](http://imgur.com/hIfB5.jpg)
