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GSL May group analysis

Blogs > [F_]aths
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[F_]aths
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Germany3947 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-14 15:06:28
April 14 2011 11:07 GMT
#1
What drama at the group drawing! The highlights include:

▪ A bang at the start: MC picks his coach, TheWind.

▪ July plays safe and picks Rain.

▪ San whined a bit about the patch and then draw Jinro. OMGWTFBBQ.

▪ Lyn picks Fruitdealer. The ex-WC3-pro has some nerves! FD picks Check who he obviously considers beatable. Check's revenge is the choice of TSL_Killer. With Lyn in the group, it could go to a group kill of Fruitdealer and Killer.

▪ Nada's choice is Marineking. Interesting! Later on, MKP asks Nada about advise for his pick. This small episode tells so much about the status and prestige of being a real legend and not just a random champion or only a very good Code-S player.

▪ sCfOu picks HopeTorture who picks ZenexByun. Byun is represented by his coach who picks oGsTop. Only terrans in group B.

▪ Kyrix, who was picked by Hongun, draws Losira. I think he will regret that.

▪ Clide said that he originally considered to pick a zerg. With Nestea being the only zerg left it is obvious that he will not do it.
▪ Jinro realized his mistake of picking Clide and asks him how much money he must pay to prevent Clide from pulling Jinro's friend (Huk) in the same group.
▪ Clide now reveales that he acted all the way long and does pick Nestea. The Zergbong certainly had fun all the time, he finds it amusing that he was avoided for so long.


With the group drawing finished, the first chapter of GSL May is now written. How could it go on? Lets see.


In group A, MC and TheWind probably will try to advance both for their team. We will get at least one teamkill, though, as Supernova also plays in this group. With Polt in the group, too, it is no easy task however to get two oGs players to RO16. I expect TheWind to stay in Code-S, even if he must go to the Up-and-Down-matches. I predict MC and Polt to get to RO16 with Supernova performing well, but not good enough against players of this caliber.

Group B consists of 100% terran. With TvT being a volatile match-up due to several cheese options, I don't dare to offer a reasonable prediction. Everyone of the players has its own style. I would guess that HopeTorture (Rainbow) makes it to RO16 if he can beat sC in the first match. Overall I think sC and Byan should advance. I really don't dare to predict.

Group C has no real BIG name in it, but some trump cards. Betting on Hongun and Losira looks like quite safe bet to me. However I would be the last one who underestimates Genius. With enough practice, he could rock the group and get out of top. But I don't expect him to perform that well. I also think Kyrix will not advance this time. Too much competition.

Group D has Nada and Foxer in it. Sorry, Zenio, and good look in the up/down matches. The question is of course how Alicia performs. I don't expect him to "upset" neither Nada nor Foxer, but I admit that he could be able to do it. Individual GSL is no team league (where Alicia did exceptionally well) but he is probably the most promising newcomer in Code-S. Foxer and Nada of course have more stage experience and both are beasts of its own class. May be Alicia can allkill Zenex, but I has yet to prove that he plays in the heavy weight class.

Group E is my favourite. Lets just look at the players: San (who made RO4 in GSL Mar), Jinro (who is eager to prove his solid TvP) plus Clide and Nestea. Four guys of which everyone is considered to have a real chance to be the next champion. Only two can advance to RO16, though. I CANNOT WAIT TO SEE THESE MATCHES. Will San continue to show strong performance? Can Clide upset his group? Does Nestea recover from his "slump"? (A "slump" everone else would like to be in!) Can the Swede pull it off this time? While I cheer for FrozenArbiter, I expect San and Clide to advance.

Group F is may be the most interesting, though. We have the old WC3 mates Lyn and Check, and two very good TSL players. Fruitdealer should advance. Lyn is good, but not on Fruitdealers level. However Lyn's aggressive and somewhat risky style could offer him a ticket to RO16. This would mean that Check and Killer go to the up/down matches. I expect a lot of mind games with Lyn / Check knowing their style from old days, and FD / Killer having an understanding of each other's style either since they are in the same team.

Group G should be doable for Trickster. I expect both Anypro and Virus falling to up-and-down, with Ensnare getting to RO16, too.

Group H should be owned by JulyZerg. If you are not on MC's level, there is just nothing you can to against July's style. Rain is good, but probably not good enough for Inca. I expect Rain and Huk not to advance with July and Inca acquiring the ticket to RO16.


Well, overall we should see a lot of close matches. Even with the most sophisticated strategy to pick your groupmate, you can influence your result only so much. In the end, you need the skill and insight into the opponent's weaknesses, as small as they may appear, to ensure your ticket to RO16.



*
You don't choose to play zerg. The zerg choose you.
Danglars
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States12133 Posts
April 14 2011 11:37 GMT
#2
Right with ya, can't wait to see Group E. Prediction of best matches coming out of there.

Fruitdealer hasn't been impressing me lately (TSL 3, GSL March). I'm thinking a tossup between him and Lyn (If Lyn's on fire as he was blazing through Code A). Fruitdealer still fights better than Check and Killer in my opinion.
Great armies come from happy zealots, and happy zealots come from California!
TL+ Member
Daigomi
Profile Blog Joined May 2006
South Africa4316 Posts
April 14 2011 12:18 GMT
#3
Nice write-up. I don't agree with all your predictions, but I think that just shows how unpredictable this season will be. The only clear "favourite" to advance, for me, is MC (and maybe July). No other player seems to have more than a 60% chance of making it. This season is going to be really exciting :D
Moderator
jupidar
Profile Joined December 2010
United States229 Posts
April 14 2011 12:43 GMT
#4
Isn't TvT considered the least volatile of the mirror match ups?
[F_]aths
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Germany3947 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-04-14 15:17:00
April 14 2011 15:10 GMT
#5
On April 14 2011 20:37 Danglars wrote:
Right with ya, can't wait to see Group E. Prediction of best matches coming out of there.

Fruitdealer hasn't been impressing me lately (TSL 3, GSL March). I'm thinking a tossup between him and Lyn (If Lyn's on fire as he was blazing through Code A). Fruitdealer still fights better than Check and Killer in my opinion.
Lyn really did impress me. He transitioned quite fast from WC3 to SC2. While I often did not understand his choices, I was able to win a lot of games.

FD of course has all the experience he need. I would say that Fruitdealer can be a genius only against top players. He often fails versus "lesser" players which are not so well-known that FD can prepare a special strategy. If he relies on his standard zerg play, he still should be able to take out everyone in his group, though. As it is easy to see, I am a huge fan of Kim-Won Gi.

Check and Killer are booth good in my opinion, however not too impressive. They are solid, however lacking the punch.



On April 14 2011 21:18 Daigomi wrote:
Nice write-up. I don't agree with all your predictions, but I think that just shows how unpredictable this season will be. The only clear "favourite" to advance, for me, is MC (and maybe July). No other player seems to have more than a 60% chance of making it. This season is going to be really exciting :D
Either MC or July not advancing to RO16 would be a sick upset indeed.

On April 14 2011 21:43 jupidar wrote:
Isn't TvT considered the least volatile of the mirror match ups?
I feel that with all the drops and hellion rushes (banshees are an option, too) some players will try to push early instead of opting for a long macro game.
You don't choose to play zerg. The zerg choose you.
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