1% for each of the Protoss players even though their skill is top tier, ooof.
So despite there being 2 out of 8 protoss players, people think Protoss have a 2% chance to win the tournament, bleak times.

Drfilip

Sweden592 Posts

October 31 2019 12:14 GMT

This poll is really skewed towards favourites. I do not think there is a ~70% chance that Serral wins it all, but I think he is the most likely winner. Aligulac predicts a 52% win chance for Serral, supporting my belief.
Aligulac says 89% win vs soO, with a 76% chance at facing Reynor in the semifinal.
The finals has a 32% chance to be vs Maru, 27% chance vs Rogue, 25% vs Dark and 16% vs Classic.

Just asking "who wins?" is an easy way to make it look like statistics says something it doesn't. This is an opinion piece, with a few hundred data points, asking for a specific scenario. I would be interested in a full on % per matchup, but the TL poll system is not really made for that.

My percentage prediction is (leaving out losing scenarios):
Serral 80% vs soO
Reynor 60% vs Trap
Rogue 55% vs Classic
Dark 48% vs Maru

Serral 55% vs Reynor
Rogue 45% vs Maru

Serral 60% vs Maru

Fun sidenote: Aligulac predicts Dark>Maru and a Serral vs Rogue finals, but Maru is second most likely to win it all.

Dedraterllaerau

113 Posts

October 31 2019 19:45 GMT

no pressure serral no pressure

shadow4723

87 Posts

October 31 2019 19:49 GMT

#10

so all I get from this is that Serral is gonna win and GGemini made 8 accounts to vote for Trap

sugarmuffinpuff

Canada39 Posts

October 31 2019 23:49 GMT

#11

On October 31 2019 21:14 Drfilip wrote:
This poll is really skewed towards favourites. I do not think there is a ~70% chance that Serral wins it all, but I think he is the most likely winner. Aligulac predicts a 52% win chance for Serral, supporting my belief.
Aligulac says 89% win vs soO, with a 76% chance at facing Reynor in the semifinal.
The finals has a 32% chance to be vs Maru, 27% chance vs Rogue, 25% vs Dark and 16% vs Classic.

Just asking "who wins?" is an easy way to make it look like statistics says something it doesn't. This is an opinion piece, with a few hundred data points, asking for a specific scenario. I would be interested in a full on % per matchup, but the TL poll system is not really made for that.

Exactly. People shouldn't mistake "70% of the community think Serral has the best chance to win" for "the community thinks Serral has a 70% chance of winning."

Morbidius

Brazil3449 Posts

November 01 2019 06:05 GMT

#12

I'd give Serral a solid 50, just because of the upset potential in ZvZ, either way he is favored against every single player here except the Last Terran. My opinions on the contenders:
1. Serral: The best player and he's certainly playing the best race, in a meta that favors the way he likes playing his race. Obvious favorite.
2. Maru: The best Terran, seems safe from the dreaded Protoss who ruined his tournament ambitions this year, and TvZ looks far better than PvZ.
3&4: The Korean Zergs, very distinct from each other and also very distinct from Serral, but a few good ZvZs could give either of them a big paycheck.
5. soO: soO is a very clutch player outside of finals, if he upsets Serral he can go all the way. Beating ''impossible'' oponents(before finals) is just what he does.
6. Reynor: Seems to struggle against Koreans and despite being the best Serral killer in the world, he still dies to Serral more often than he wins.
7&8: The old and the new Protoss hope, they certainly could extend their tournament life if they got Maru but this is looking like a Zerg affair, and all Zerg players here have beaten them comfortably in the last month.

This seems like an easy tournament for Serral, only god mode Maru could mess this up in my opinion.

Obamarauder

697 Posts

November 01 2019 12:32 GMT

#13

btw, in approximately 8 hours soo will eliminate serral

Weavel

Finland9224 Posts

November 01 2019 16:08 GMT

#14

SERRAL SUOMI PERKELE

pitbulTweety

4 Posts

November 01 2019 21:44 GMT

#15

I've just watched the first game Serral played versus soO. Tasteless is so right. His playstyle in early, middle and late game is perfect. There's nothing more to add from me. I think Serral is going to win the tournament. I think as long as Serral is playing this good, it'll be so hard for the others to beat him. Try your very best! glhf

KalmeCavia1011

1 Post

November 01 2019 22:12 GMT

#16

I can say it'll be all about 6 letters: _ _ _ _ _ _. Guess who I'm talking about. glhf!

Oukka

Finland1683 Posts

November 01 2019 22:18 GMT

#17

Serral just made himself even more of a favourite with that 3-0. So solid.

narusensei22

31 Posts

November 02 2019 07:24 GMT

#18

now.. this is becoming bit awkward for foreign fans :/

ProFalseIdol

70 Posts

November 02 2019 18:06 GMT

#19

On November 02 2019 16:24 narusensei22 wrote:
now.. this is becoming bit awkward for foreign fans :/

Yeah, too much hype for Serral. And this has happened with Neeb before. And unlike Neeb, Serral has never won any tournament where qualifier is open to all.

Now foreign fans point out Zerg is broken. Lols.

All hype, no championships to back it up.

DanceSC

United States751 Posts

November 02 2019 18:53 GMT

#20

I am so glad Dark won hahaha, I wish Trap beat Reynor though but oh well. Seriously, with the amount of praise the casters were giving serral, I was so happy to see the upset. If your drinking game included the casters bringing up Serral when he wasn't playing you wouldn't have been able to make it past the ro16. I dont know, the whole thing was extremely obnoxious and the balance issues were pretty apparent. Hopefully we can get a year where a t and p make it to the finals.