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Fog or Snow are the obvious only choices for Day 1. Snow on days 1 and 2 might give us a very solid clue set from which to work from.
The only thing I worry about regarding an auto-fog vote is the inability to cross check for pledges later on. Basically you guys need to weigh the value of additional clues versus 2 extra kills. Remember that resurrection means that reducing mafia KP is more important, since we can approach a break-even point much quicker.
With that said, this is the only day that Cover is not active. From tomorrow onwards, mafia will likely attempt to get DTs to check covered targets, which means that a double check on the godfather knocks more than both our DTs out; It could also very well confirm a number of mafia as blue, and likely end the game. So would Godfather attempt to run for Emperor and draw DT checks to himself? I would if I were him.
Having said that. I will run for emperor, largely to split the vote and give us at the very least solid lists to check.
I'm not going to bother putting up a fancy platform, because quite frankly we really don't have enough information on mafia numbers or any clues with which to form a decent plan. As with the previous game I was in, I plan on setting up a situation that assures us kills during double lynches on days 3 and 4. Note that our DTs cannot confirm roles; they only get the ability to determine Mafia/Not mafia.
Because of this, It is my opinion that after day 1's 'checks' happen to form circles of trust, we co-ordinate vote list information, and have multiple cross checks to make sure no one is providing false information.
There is, however, a problem with that.
Given Godfather Emperor, Dts can never be certain that the 'other DT' they're told about is the real one. If they doubt and don't role check, Godfather can use DT cover and then we have a situation in which detective info can be faked. This, however, is a foolish gambit; if the fake DT is not mafia, he will not be able to provide the true DT with a vote list to check alongside the list published in the thread, and if he is mafia, reds cannot kill DTs singly without having the other unmask 2 mafia worth 1.5 kp. Essentially the gambit is useless, unless the mafia want to keep the DTs alive, but that would result in a crushing amount of cross checked vote lists.
So, given the fact that the alternative is fucking stupid as shit, Emperor or whomever DTs end up trusting needs to reveal the existance of the other DT. DTs NEED to be sure to check before night starts, however, and we cannot fuck the timing up. In this way, a mafia godfather cannot falsify vote-lists even if a DT replies late and the Godfather is forced to post during night.
All of that said, there are some intentional 'mistakes' left in this plan, and a few potential gambits the mafia could use against it. Feel free to find them.
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Not DT list check, silly.
Step your game up, vote lists provide information even if they don't have numbers attached.
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On July 03 2009 12:00 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Also, mafia can fake vote list checks because they know how many mafia vote for each person... Also, you correctly said that the DT need to role check important people Day 1 before Cover is possible... so why would we do anything other than Fog Day 1 when DTs should be using alignment check instead of vote list check (which they can't use Day 1). I dunno how intentional these mistakes are but it doesn't look like anything someone should Pyrry Says: vote BloodyC0bbler unless he comes up red today because he's the best player running and, at the very least, he understands (this should be obvious) that taking anything other than the guaranteed KP lowering at this point is stupid. See this thing? If you're green, TURN IT ON! 
Fog is by far the best option for day 1 by far. If we are going to to play a list based game during days 2-5, we can't keep fog up during day 2. Fog, however, may not be the best choice during subsequent days, when Rain and Snow provide us with a .33kp reduction if we play our priest right, or additional clues and let us check lists.
And all of the 'mistakes' are within the area after.
Mafia cannot 'set up' lists. We cut the checked lists in half every day and substantially hem their ability to throw votes around in. They can delay the inevitable, but all of their pledges should be out in the open by day 4-5. Losing the suicide bomber means we can do a number of solid things, like set up our angels on our priest and have him just chain res blue targets.
Plexa, do covered pledges show up on lists? Do dead covered people flip as the cover or as their real role?
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On July 03 2009 12:03 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2009 11:50 L wrote:
Not DT list check, silly.
Step your game up, vote lists provide information even if they don't have numbers attached. They don't necessarily give any information, especially if someone's platform is to run just to put another name on the ballot. If anything, that spreads things out and makes it easier to mafia to alter the voting with less effort.
The platform isn't simply putting another name on the ballot, but that's the only concrete benefit we get out of another person running. I've already outlined my basic gameplan as emp, but all of that is subject to change if we get lucky hits, lose a fuckton of blues, a bunch of people play retardedly, etc.
I really shy away from making predictions which aren't mathematically probable, and that's why i'm not going to try and lock myself into a certain mode of play. My preferred mode would be the one I listed, but you can go back up and read it.
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On July 03 2009 12:51 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 03 2009 12:24 L wrote:On July 03 2009 12:03 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:On July 03 2009 11:50 L wrote:
Not DT list check, silly.
Step your game up, vote lists provide information even if they don't have numbers attached. They don't necessarily give any information, especially if someone's platform is to run just to put another name on the ballot. If anything, that spreads things out and makes it easier to mafia to alter the voting with less effort. The platform isn't simply putting another name on the ballot, but that's the only concrete benefit we get out of another person running. I've already outlined my basic gameplan as emp, but all of that is subject to change if we get lucky hits, lose a fuckton of blues, a bunch of people play retardedly, etc. I really shy away from making predictions which aren't mathematically probable, and that's why i'm not going to try and lock myself into a certain mode of play. My preferred mode would be the one I listed, but you can go back up and read it. Alright, I understand your plan a little better now with your further explanation / clarification. It's something to consider but, like you say, a lot could go wrong. Fog spam, though not fancy, is pretty sturdy and will help us win the game if we just play better than the mafia.
The problem I have with fog is that we can assuredly get a few pledges with proper list checks during days 2-5 which opens us to the other 3 weather choices. If we're right about the 4.5kp-> 5, after 2 pledge kills we gain the equivalent of perma fog.
Doing so opens us up to something like rain spam/res into sunny when we're sure about our clues. Rain spam is a net -.33 mafia kp, since if done right we can keep our mystic invulnerable pretty much the entire game.
The goal, as usual is how to net some early KP cutting kills, and that's where I'm somewhat on the fence. Snow and an active town with solid clue interpretation + list checks is devastating. Snow + a stupid town + poor DT control is a gigantic waste of weather. That's why I don't want to really pin weather down for future days until we see what type of information we're pulling out.
Either way, day 1 fog is the best option assuming no one can capitalize on a snow clue. When day 2 rolls around, we'll have some more information to go on and we'll be better placed to discuss what the best course of action lays ahead of us.
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I'm somewhat hoping that green townies having a critical game function will help out in that manner, but no, I'm not assuming we'll have perfect vote lists.
In actuality, some people dropping off of lists will speed shit up depending on the counts we get.
Either way, I'm not 100% into going full out on list checking. I kinda want to see how people vote today and who's killed. If we have a bunch of high suspicion players, having our DTs check individual alignments might be more worth our while. Regardless, that's something we'll have to discuss more when we have additional information.
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If covered pledges do not show up on lists there is almost no point to trying to split lists and narrow the groups down systematically.
Fog is looking much stronger in that instance.
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Catching up with thread. Will post when I'm done.
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First impressions, midway through page 8: HeavOn is 100% right about the likely hood of one of us being GF compared to him. His chance is a straight 1/38, ours are much higher.
That said, that was the exact same reasoning we used to almost get randombum into mayor during mafia 2 (LOL WAY TO GO INACTIVE MAFIA MEMBERS). We got him pardoner instead, which ended up netting us some info, so I'd suggest people vote the person they're most comfortable with. I personally can't favor the math here because I know i'm 100% innocent, which forces me to favor my candidacy.
As for one of us three being GF, I can see mafia advancing GF to take DT checks and establish a fake circle of trust, but GF isn't a standard mafia member in this game. He has a straight KP and Cover, which might FAR outweigh the risk/reward of getting into office, but it seems to me from my initial analysis that that's not the case. Either way, even if its favorable, most players play suboptimally in all mafia games, so it wouldn't be surprising if the GF wasn't running.
The reason WHY pre-running was removed is that it gives the pre-running player a much lower risk of getting in, and the move is made pre-role distribution which means that their candidacy gives us nearly zero information.
Moving onto page 9 now.
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On July 04 2009 09:03 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2009 07:47 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:This has gotta be the least active game ever  nothing has really happened in the last 6 hours. I guess JeeJee started running and Heavonearth finally gave a platform but meh. Not good for town. How's this not good for the town?
Page 9: Heav0n's throwing down absolutely terrible analysis. The man with the golden gun's weapon was tiny, for instance.
The above quote is very interesting: If you've been in any other game you know that the real 'killer' mentioned in the above post is inactivity. Inactive means we have less information. Means mafia can sit back and pick us off.
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On July 04 2009 12:52 Pyrrhuloxia wrote:Show nested quote +On July 04 2009 10:30 L wrote:
First impressions, midway through page 8: HeavOn is 100% right about the likely hood of one of us being GF compared to him. His chance is a straight 1/38, ours are much higher.
That said, that was the exact same reasoning we used to almost get randombum into mayor during mafia 2 (LOL WAY TO GO INACTIVE MAFIA MEMBERS). We got him pardoner instead, which ended up netting us some info, so I'd suggest people vote the person they're most comfortable with. I personally can't favor the math here because I know i'm 100% innocent, which forces me to favor my candidacy.
As for one of us three being GF, I can see mafia advancing GF to take DT checks and establish a fake circle of trust, but GF isn't a standard mafia member in this game. He has a straight KP and Cover, which might FAR outweigh the risk/reward of getting into office, but it seems to me from my initial analysis that that's not the case. Either way, even if its favorable, most players play suboptimally in all mafia games, so it wouldn't be surprising if the GF wasn't running.
The reason WHY pre-running was removed is that it gives the pre-running player a much lower risk of getting in, and the move is made pre-role distribution which means that their candidacy gives us nearly zero information.
Moving onto page 9 now. This is gonna be like learning Santa Claus isn't real all over again (hope I didn't spoil anyone), but the people who run these games don't usually assign the roles in a perfectly random way. They usually make sure a total noob doesn't become GF, for example, and the GF is usually randomized around until it lands on a player who is at least somewhat experienced, which fits all three people running. Don't forget that a player who announces their candidacy before the election can always pull out after the game starts if they roll blue and don't want to draw attention to themselves, or are green and would rather a blue win, or are red and don't want to get checked or have the cover on them all game long (for any of these reasons they could come up with some excuse not related to the game). Any GF who started running before receiving their role would certainly yell "jackpot!" and stay in the race. Heavonearth's chances of being GF are certainly higher than 1/38, and, all things considered, probably not very different compared to L's or BC's.
Oh, I know that. We've had the godfather being re-randomized outing before.
Either way, 1/possible players is quite a bit less than 1/role induced candidacy. Doesn't really matter either way because he dropped out of the race. We can actually deduce rather quickly that Heav0n is unlikely to be a mafioso or pledge if he decided to run seriously. The fact that he pulled out and made a really shitty set of clue interpretations works against him.
Speaking of being active, I have a habit of voting late. When does the current day end? I'll assume July 6th 0:00 KST?
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People shouldn't be drive-by voting when people are bitching in-thread about activity. That goes for everyone that voted. If you aren't posting here and toss a vote into the vote thread, just pop in and go "i voted xyz because abc".
But more importantly; What, exactly, should DTs be doing post check? Should they out themselves to the person they checked? I don't mind them outing themselves to me because I know i'm legit, but they don't. They can't, either. They can't post in-thread about it without putting a big 'fuck me in the face first night plz" target on themselves. They can't really do much at all besides raise a flag if a pledge or mafioso was running, and we already have a massive deterrent against that set-up in the proposed DT checks.
As for tomorrow onwards, the emperor can be covered to mafia too.
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Well, that's the thing, as high an opinion of ourselves as we have, we can't assume they know as much as we do, especially since we've all agreed that GF running wouldn't be a bad idea.
So if they can't be assumed to come out into the open, the checks today essentially do nothing more than prevent a later check from being switched with cover, because the threat of checks itself has been here for around a day and no pledge/mafioso would run.
Which is why I'm wondering what the fuck DTs should do.
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If he's wrong, he dies. That's a pretty big flaw, seeing as around 1/4th of the players in the game are out to kill him.
The DTs aren't going to find a mafia or pledge running for office, so we're not going to learn anything from their check. Better that they pick people who are voting oddly (LOL HALF OF THE PEOPLE ON ME. YEAH, THATS RIGHT), or people who are outspoken but not in the running.
The office is going to come down to faith for all but 2 people. Me and BC know our roles. The only issue I can see with my suggestion would be if BOTH BC and I are mafia aligned, but if that was the case I wouldn't have waited close to 2 days to say this.
If anyone disagrees and thinks we're actually going to catch someone or reduce our fear of godfather by checking me and BC for any unused DT checks, voice your concern. Otherwise I think its a better idea if, say, pyrr or one of those early 4 bandwagoners on me get checked.
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Dear Scamp: Get more active. That shit isn't going to work twice in a row.
-L
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Ignoring the fact that I was far more likely to be the godfather because I ran in the election is somewhat silly, unless you already know who the godfather is.
Truth be told, I was going to kill you if I got elected in along the exact same lines of reasoning that lmnop gave.
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On July 06 2009 02:19 BloodyC0bbler wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2009 02:13 L wrote:
Ignoring the fact that I was far more likely to be the godfather because I ran in the election is somewhat silly, unless you already know who the godfather is.
Truth be told, I was going to kill you if I got elected in along the exact same lines of reasoning that lmnop gave. Except the reasoning is faulty. Using an autolynch instantly on your running mate gives you pretty well dick all if they are green. Besides, this plan ensures that when mbh revives, neither you or I lead the town. This plan works for the towns best interest, just requires us not crashing this ship before hes back in the game.
Not exactly. If they're green, you know far more about how mafia would have voted, and if they're the GF you gain a massive amount. If you wanted someone known-town you can simply revive the other person, and that's that. The way it is now, the town is basically forced into throwing all our weather + medic protection onto a certain few players for the rest of the game, which amounts to more than +3 kills. It also confirms angels when they take their first hit, because no one else is going to get prot. We also can't NOT rain for the next 3 days because if mafia unravel the priest clue, a suicide bomb puts us so far behind it isn't funny.
The problem with this plan is that it doesn't ensure that MBH revives at all; an angel kill tonight all but ensures we lose both the priest and him. As it stands, mafia hits for 5 next night and can spend a night taking the priest role out of the game whenever they choose, even with rain. Even if they don't, mafia have the advantage of knowing the medic protection is going to be prefferentially put on the priest, so they have the luxury of simply dropping 10 of our most active non-priest posters before killing the priest, which is half of the active players in the game. Look at our current activity levels and make an assumption about the proportion of mafia active posters (3-5 of them posting?), then check the proportion of town to mafia posters on day 3-4.
I don't really mind sacrificing the priest to absorb a night's worth of hits, but we didn't need to go and kill off MBH specifically to make that threat. The moment ANYONE is killed and ressed, he is confirmed. The side advantage of hitting someone who has a higher proportion chance of being mafia is that on the odd chance that the hit flips red, we gain a massive amount of information and get rather ahead in the game.
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On July 06 2009 03:47 Foolishness wrote:Show nested quote +On July 06 2009 03:10 L wrote:
I don't really mind sacrificing the priest to absorb a night's worth of hits, but we didn't need to go and kill off MBH specifically to make that threat. The moment ANYONE is killed and ressed, he is confirmed. The side advantage of hitting someone who has a higher proportion chance of being mafia is that on the odd chance that the hit flips red, we gain a massive amount of information and get rather ahead in the game.
Earlier you had stated if elected you would've killed BC. Your reasoning makes it sound that BC should've killed you instead of MrBabyHands. You're advocating that killing MrBabyHands was a bad idea (or at the very least, there was better options) yet the other alternative that YOU suggest would be BC killing you. That being said, had it still been up to you, who would you have lynched that's not BC?
Me.
I know i'm green, but he doesn't, nor does the town.
If not me, Heav0n.
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On July 06 2009 04:00 So no fek wrote:
Yeah, it's definitely a fortunate night. We lost 4 people, so our angels didn't save anyone, but at least we didn't lose much blue.
I'll look over the post in a minute and see if anything jumps out at me, but clue analysis is not something that has ever come easy to me. One thing to consider, was redtooth's plan. He stated that if BC was mafia, we were completely fucked. Yet we weren't entirely raped last night. So I'm curious as to what was said between the two of them.
Redtooth's plan was a box of idiocy. Our vigis can't hit first night and he wanted us to go sunny. This is a complete red herring.
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And for the triple post: Can someone make a list of every post the people who died put up?
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EPT![[image loading]](http://files.getdropbox.com/u/51715/fogstorm.jpg)
