EPT
), but I don't understand how campaigning prematurely provides sincerity.Otherwise, yay for small town size and big-name players!
Mafia VIII [GG]
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
), but I don't understand how campaigning prematurely provides sincerity.Otherwise, yay for small town size and big-name players! | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
By the way, I made another list of compiled profile information here (work was incredibly slow today, so I thought, "Why not?"). Please let me know if it's considered to be cluttering up the Mafia forum. I figured it was better to make a thread rather than a blog entry, as the thread doesn't need to be bumped constantly for people to find it. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
Right now, I'm voting for Ver, because, as everyone has said, it's common sense to try to place good behavioral/clue analyzers into office, and Ver is definitely good enough at behavior analysis to merit bodyguard protection. He also has a history of being able to work very fast, which (as L demonstrated in his worst-case scenario) is even more important in a game of this size. On the other hand, it should also be easy to spot if he's Mafia, if the town starts hemorrhaging blue roles. I would also like to ask, not just the candidates but the town in general, if anyone has any ideas for possible plans for the town. Now that Mafia can hit fellow Mafia, it's plain that we can't even use the strategy of people claiming they took a hit on Night One or medics roleclaiming to the person they saved. While it's highly unlikely that Mafia will sacrifice one of their own so early on the hopes that they might be saved by a medic, I think it's something to keep in mind. They might also use this ability to try and masquerade as a vigilante later in the game. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
1. LTT getting bowled into by something and knocked into the water. I thought it was especially interesting that it said "something" bowled into him, not "someone." Maybe a weapon or object pushed/thrown by the attacker? 2. Qatol being unable to locate his attacker, then seeing a blur as he's stabbed. This suggests someone who is very fast, and possibly either indistinct or very small. Everything else looks to me like LTT and Qatol were having fun with the writing. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
On May 17 2009 08:29 nemY wrote: Why have I came out and admitted this? Because I feel that my position may have already been compromised. I've received PMs from multiple individuals who seem to think that I may be a blue, and now I'm confirming it. Emphasis on the "multiple." At first, I thought this sounded silly and panicky, but if I was confronted by a dozen people who pinpointed my exact role on the first day, I figure I would get worried too, if I were an innocent detective. Especially if I'd only made a handful of very brief posts all game, as nemY had done. After some pressure from others to reveal these PMs, though, he returns and posts them. Incomplete and hardly multiple at all. In fact, only one person, Incognito, seems to have written to him, and what he wrote was: On May 17 2009 14:30 nemY wrote: I'm not going to post the whole thing since much of it is our discussion and finger pointing (which I'd rather leave out) so here it is... ala Richard Nixon Style That doesn't seem like enough to panic over, let alone to prompt a public roleclaim. The overall tone seems non-threatening and inquisitive, and Incognito confirmed that that was all he said. If there were other PMs from other people, nemY hasn't posted them. And if this was all there was, then why claim multiple people had contacted you in the first place and use that as your only excuse to out yourself? It just doesn't seem very honest to me. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
Of course, while I was catching up on older stuff, new stuff happened in the meantime. Bah. I'm glad we didn't vote nemY into office, because I wouldn't have been comfortable with a Mayor or Pardoner who seemed so comfortable with lying to the town about key issues, like the reason for his public roleclaim. I'm still on the fence about whether he should have been lynched or not, because he does seem like a traitor and lynching the traitor doesn't hurt the town's numbers, I think, but on the other hand, if he is just a misguided detective, it would be better to preserve that role if we can. From nemY's actual posts, I couldn't tell either way. As it didn't happen, though, I guess we'll have to wait until Night to see if anything happens in that area. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
Mafia A I agree, I like infundibulum for this one too. He's the only player whose profile contains anything medically-related; I couldn't find anything else about medicine, syringes, needles or even drugs. (Of course, this might also be influenced by the fact that in Chuiu's game, someone was killed with a syringe and everyone assumed it was infundibulum, including me.) Furthermore, the emphasis on sounds in the later part of the paragraph really suggests infundibulum, whose profile is full of musical references and the Hammerstein quote. The only other potential flaw I could think of is that syringes are not funnel-shaped (I hope) or at least are usually thought of as cylinders with only a small funnel at the very end near the needle. However, that was an extremely minor part of your analysis. Mafia B Again, this is fantastic analysis, and damn, I wish I weren't the suspect you arrived at in the end. Linking the quote at the end was excellent, though I would argue that the answer to mikeymoo's prayers would not have been an end to his sore throat, but his life. So, in that sense, his prayers were not answered. The behavior of the Mafia seems to indicate being easily distracted and not perceptive, as shown by his watching LucasWoJ's death instead of going after mikeymoo right away and then totally missing mikeymoo. However, he does exhibit focus when he hunts after mikeymoo, so it's not as though he were totally devoid of mental processes. He just misses details, even glaring ones. Someone sleepwalking or daydreaming would probably have completely wandered off or forgotten, instead of being distracted for a moment before hunting mikeymoo down quite attentively and thoroughly. Because of the focused brutality of the killing and the fact that the killer misses details, I might tentatively suggest Heavonearth. His quote at the end includes a link that reads "http://l0lhi.mybrute.com." I didn't click on the link, but the words "my brute" does fit the way mikeymoo was killed. In addition, his profile also includes a series of letters (rather like an eye chart), followed by the sentence: "What's the pattern? no really tell me, i have no clue :O" This suggests someone who doesn't notice patterns or details, like mikeymoo's killer. Mafia C Good Lord, but that is a horrible way to die. I thought of Ver as well, because of his rape quote and the rake up the butt. My only point of disagreement is that it's Fishball who died, and I remember that Ver said he's always had a hard time reading Fishball. I don't know if that has changed, but I'm not sure he normally would have been able to discern his role. For my part, I admit I immediately thought of MrBabyHands because of his quote. Just because it references both, ahem, butt holes and manliness, and the only other thing that can be used to make clues for him would be his name. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
On May 20 2009 00:41 Bockit wrote: I'm doing some clue analysis of my own and just started going through your stuff now, just a note about Mafia C: it's not particularly relevant that fishball died. Whoever figured out that fishball is a medic isn't necessarily the one who killed him. And if it was, it's just chance. That's a good point. I think I was just influenced by the confluence of Ver's and Fishball's names in the same sentence in MTF's analysis. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
I can see two factors pointing toward me: MTF's clue analysis and my quietness. Let me address those right now: 1. MTF's clue analysis was good, but it was also written from Day Two clues from hosts who have never run a game before. We still don't have a clear picture of how their clues work. Even MTF said that his clue analysis was mostly preliminary and intended to generate discussion, rather than to point a finger unmistakably at anyone. I'm only one of three suspects he comes up with for Day Two, as he also links Infundibulum and Ver to the other killers. The analysis linked to me has strengths and weaknesses, just like the other two. I think the case against Infundibulum is quite as strong as the one against me, with the syringe and the emphasis on sounds. 2. I have been quiet, which I'm sure hasn't helped my case. However, I am usually quiet because I don't like to post without having something substantial to contribute. Thus, I've only posted when I thought I found something to help the town, such as clue analysis, discussion of the game's rules or finding nemY's lie about multiple PMs. I didn't say much during the elections, because I didn't want to get caught in the crossfire between Ace, L, Ver, and nemY especially when I'm not very good with behavior analysis and didn't have a firm reading on any of them. I wanted to help the town, not complicate it further by wading into the middle of a discussion when I hadn't even fully formed opinions of the people involved. Knowing that I don't have good behavior analysis skills shouldn't be a reason to lynch. I tried analyzing behavior last game, only to nearly get a townie (JeeJee) lynched, and I don't want to repeat that mistake again. Right now, with the two bodyguards dying, I have the feeling that either Ace or Ver could be mafia, but not both. I'm leaning toward Ace, because he was starting to remind me of Qatol from last game because he was pursuing lynches so aggressively. The vote swapping doesn't help either. On the other hand, we've mostly been hearing from Ace and L for the last few pages, and I would like to hear more from Ver as well. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
The only thing worse than zombies coming back to haunt us are zombie trolls coming back to haunt us. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
Normally, these two things wouldn't be connected in the least. However, well before Day Two occurred, Ver contacted me through PM to say he believed I had a blue role. Specifically, he said he thought I was probably medic/DT. This alone made me think that he wasn't Mafia, because he wouldn't have bothered to PM me at all if he were; he would have just killed me. Why leave a potential victim the possibility of getting protection? Being tired and surprised, I worded my response rather regrettably in a way that probably wouldn't convince him otherwise. When Day Two dawned, I knew that if he were Mafia, I would be dead. The fact that I didn't die, even though he had figured me out as a blue, persuaded me that Ver is innocent. Why leave a blue role alone, especially if you suspect them to be a medic or detective? Both are potentially far more valuable and devastating for the town to lose than two bodyguards, because of their inherent abilities. I'd have made a far better target than poor LucasWoJ or mikeymoo. Instead, I didn't die, even though he had figured me out as blue. Thus, logically, he can't be Mafia. Which means he's innocent and has the town's best interests in mind, more so than the likes of Ace and L bickering and quarrelling with each other. Here are the PMs we exchanged, if anyone wants concrete proof about the conversation. To: Ver Subject: Re: your mafia role Date: 5/18/09 12:25 Ironically, I just wrote to you not thirty seconds ago. And no, no one has contacted me. The confusion over nemY has pretty much occupied everyone's minds, and I don't think I would have come to anyone's attention anyway. What makes you think I'm a medic or DT? Or even a blue role? ----------------------------------------- Original Message: I think you're a medic or DT. What do you think of the current situation? Has anyone else contacted you that's playing? | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
I'm the one vigilante in this game. This is why I've been quieter than usual this game, though I doubt it would necessarily have been noticeable for most. It's why I've avoided the spotlight and tried to post only when I had something truly substantial to share or when I wanted to defend myself so that I could carry out my role. Ver did correctly guess my color, but not its exact, shall we say, flavor. But then, there are twice as many medics and detectives as there are vigilantes in this game, after all. Now, why should you believe me? Well, it would be highly risky for Mafia to ever roleclaim vigilante, even in ordinary circumstances when there are more than one. In this game, when there's only one vigilante, it becomes even more dangerous, even for the godfather. They can't run the risk of having their clues repeat, as the vigilante has only one hit and which clues show up in the Day posts aren't under their control. It's true that Mafia can kill their own members this round, but I don't think they'd want to chance that, with only six members this game. So, I'd really like to see if Mafia tries to roleclaim vigilante as well, as I'm the legitimate vigilante and they, well, would just make themselves targets. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
On May 21 2009 13:02 Caller wrote: seconded... if you really are vigi, then who are you going to hit tonight? You might as well tell us. I'm letting this be up for debate after the lynch. I have some ideas on who I'd like to hit, but I'm open to suggestions as well. Part of the reason why I did this was because I didn't want to waste my hit by getting lynched too soon. I admit that's definitely not a concern now, after Ver's post. In addition, this will likely help make clue analysis easier, as well as giving the town a confirmed innocent should I survive after my hit. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
And speaking of roles, especially blue roles, I've been thinking about who I should use my vigi hit on tonight. I've decided that I should target MrBabyHands. I would appreciate hearing everyone's input on this, though please remember that I can use my hit as I wish. With Ver dead and verified as a veteran, I don't think there are many players left who could have killed off so many blue roles so early. MrBabyHands showed himself to be an outstanding behavior analyst in Chuiu's most recent Mafia game, where I recall he single-handedly found at least five Mafia using behavior analysis with a light helping of clue connections. He can work quite fast, and in that game, at least, he was very rarely mistaken in his analysis. Were he on the Mafia side, I'm pretty sure he could identify blue roles in the town with equal accuracy. And for those of you who think the bodyguards were killed by luck, I would like to ask: If the Mafia were just stabbing in the dark, why hit LucasWoJ and mikeymoo? Both have played in several games, but both are fairly low-profile players who wouldn't normally be high priorities for early deaths. Considering there are only six Mafia in this game, there must have been a few town-aligned players who would have been better targets based on merit, rather than role. So, I'm pretty sure those two were targeted because they were bodyguards. In addition, MrBabyHands has only posted once or twice ever in this game. This is in stark contrast to his steady activity in Chuiu's game, where he debated styles of analysis, criticized plans for confirming innocents, and wrote long posts presenting suspects and analysis. He even posted large pictures taunting others, rather like a more pointed Caller. In this game, he's showed up a handful of times to talk about behavior analysis, then disappeared. If he's town-aligned, why isn't he helping? Why wouldn't he lend his skills at analysis to help us? It might also be mentioned that Ver believed that MrBabyHands is the one of the few who has ever successfully "read" Fishball (he found out he was a vigilante in Chuiu's game). I don't really know much about this, as I'm barely a beginner at behavior analysis, but it's worth adding to the argument. I believe that, if he is Mafia, he would prove extremely dangerous to town. If not, well, then he is simply being appallingly inactive. But I don't think that's the case, given his behavioral analysis skills and the deaths on Day One. | ||
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
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dreamflower
United States312 Posts
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