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Hey Guys,
I'm running for mayor. I have nothing to offer. Absolutely nothing. In fact, I suspect I'll make a terrible mayor. Therefore, I ask that everyone vote for me. Please do.
I feel that now would be the most opportune moment to say something everyone ignores: L is mafia. I'll be voting to lynch him every day from now.
Lastly, I suspect that Ver is not, but, of course, it is far too premature to matter. If he is not, then it seems to me that that propitiates the town's ability to win. So yeah, I'm tentatively thinking about perhaps voting for Ver.
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I would like to note that my candidacy is not one based on a power play. I am but a mere townie.
If anyone else would like to claim a role in order to enhance his OR HER chance to win election, then by all mean, please feel free to do so. I, however, do not wish to tarnish my good name. So I won't lie. And isn't that doubtlessly the most important quality a town could hope for from a leader (that is to say, a mayor or pardoner)? Again, I remind everyone that I am running for mayor. I will not offer a thing; however, I encourage all to vote for me. Together, we can somehow elect me! !
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HeavONearth is mafia, by the way. I'll explain after I'm killed during the night !
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L, I'm just choosing to ignore it; I thought it was extremely stupid.
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The only problem with RoL's post is that it's a typical RoL mafia post.
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OR....
We could just elect me into a position of power. o.o
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On May 18 2009 04:45 Scamp wrote:Show nested quote +On May 18 2009 04:21 0cz3c wrote:
OR....
We could just elect me into a position of power. o.o This gives me a brilliant idea that's not actually brilliant! Let's vote in whoever has been the most inactive right now! No way any mafia member would be inactive for this long. It's foolproof! Especially if the guy really is inactive for whatever reason. Then he'd get back to the game and be like: "What the hell???" But then again if he really is inactive then he could actually be mafia too...
While your idea may not be brilliant, mine, without a doubt, certainly is.
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On May 18 2009 07:49 Incognito wrote:
Why is nobody responding to my post? Either it is correct or it is flawed, I don't think you can have no opinion about it...
Because you didn't consider me as a serious candidate for pardoner. Who wouldn't ignore you?
Owned Bockit.
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I'd like to remind everyone that I am indeed running for mayor. I am willing to accept the position of pardoner as well.
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I couldn't help but notice that I'm not on that list. Does that mean that I create my own special category? Or do you not take 100% into account?
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I see what you did there.
I'd like to take this opportunity to remind everyone that I have already announced my candidacy for mayor. Not really sure what's holding the votes back.
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I already did the job for him on you HeavOnEarth. You're confirmed mafia. 
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On May 18 2009 10:53 Caller wrote:
what the hell is going on here...?
where did those percentages come from? and what's with the massive flame war here? Can't we all just get along...? And could we also get a vote tally?
I'm seeing a lot of questions; I'm not seeing any answers.
I can provide this town with answers...provided I get elected into office, of course.
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Hey nemY, if you really wanted to prove that you're a DT, you'd place your vote on me. Let's hope that starts the bandwagon I'm expecting.
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On May 18 2009 11:32 Ace wrote:
here we go again. Mafia managed to make people take votes off of me, and no one read Ver's post.
Gotta love this town.
I can't read.
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On May 19 2009 01:51 RebirthOfLeGenD wrote:
Well, I wish I wasn't so far behind with everything when reading earlier. The infinity kill makes sense, I guess. He just posted a few times saying lawl I have no idea whats going on and then ran away and never really did anything.
and for the last time, Ace shut the hell up. NemY being mafia is so fucking unlikely and you know it. It is like a 1% chance at MOST. 98% chance of him being DT/Traitor and 1% of him being a douche townie.
The lying leads him to look more like a Traitor who didn't plan everything out that he would need. It happens. However BESIDES that, most of his behavior makes him look like a legit detective. This is just a dumb move for mafia.
Just because the election is over doesn't mean this serves no purpose. The mafia is going to kill him just to be safe, so we should consider putting a medic on him so they will hesitate on hitting him. At LEAST for one day until he can try to prove whether he is a legit DT or not. Well not so much prove, but give us something to work with then if he dies and pops up blue, now we have a legit role check to work with.
To summarize what I said. The mafia has to kill him UNLESS hes mafia. At which point in a few days we will just kill him if he doesn't die from the oppositions volition. If hes a DT/Traitor which I have stated is most likely then the mafia has to kill him regardless of which they think he is. The longer they let him live and he is a DT the more information we get from him. Even if they risk killing the traitor who only helps them cause chaos without implicating one of their own.
So yeah, if in 4 days mafia doesn't kill him hes probably mafia. Chance of that happening? Practically zero. Until then, lets just bask in the glorious amount of behavioral data that the nemy debacle has caused us. I collected some fishy shit from before page 18, I should probably update it accordingly though.
Not true, and you know it. In my perspective, there's a 25% chance that Nemy is mafia. Mathematically, that is wholly true. In your perspective, he probably has closer to a 21% chance of being mafia, Certainly not 1%. He also has a 45% chance to be a green townie. That's not 1%. Nice try. Also has a 10% chance to be a DT or traitor.
I'd like to know from where you're pulling these imaginary and false figures?
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On May 19 2009 05:54 L wrote:Show nested quote +I'd like to know from where you're pulling these imaginary and false figures? From the fact that the play was ultra ballsy, the fact that history shows that a real DT has figured its worth trying, and the fact that mafia setting up one of their members to get killed/vig hit on day 1-2 is incredibly poor play. The risk is huge, the reward is not: Compare to someone who is a 'good player' like Ace/Ver being mafia and running (and there's obviously going to be one on the mafia side) why would you go about this route? After this game, when the precedent is set that the gambit is a potential success for someone who tries it, it would be far less likely, but compared the potential nemy is mafia to ace or ver. Ace and Ver have huge playing tells and action tells which are pointing towards them being mafia. They might not be, but they're more likely to be than joe 6pack average player given the way they played day 1. The likeliness nemy is mafia depends on the risk/reward ratio of making the claim. In the current instance, the risk of being caught is very high and the penalty is severe: 1/6th of the mafia die. Compare that to the reward: Ace is on record saying pardoner is far less powerful than i proposed it to be, so lets do this calculation in his head: Minimal reward: Town wouldn't start listening to him or funneling him information. Town would still be looking at him. Which makes me wonder why Ace could possibly believe nemy is lynch material.
You're mentioning qualitative not quantitative observations. Still, my question remains unanswered.
By the way, the word "feast" appears several times in the first post. This, to me, suggests extravagance (it had been the mafia's fourth feast). Both seem to suggest mafia feasting. In the first case, it's Chuiu and Pyrr, and in the second, LTT wrote, "The sharks feasted." (And, by the way, the writing is unquestionably LTT's. You're welcome.) Sharks, ravenous, murderous creatures, can serve as a metaphor for the mafia. Indeed, the fact that the water was shark-infested seems to confirm this (it goes well with the mafia's claim: "“You no longer control this town. It is ours now.”") After that moment, the mafia control the living bodies aboard the ship; the sharks, the dead thrown into the sea.
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On May 19 2009 06:24 L wrote:Show nested quote +You're mentioning qualitative not quantitative observations. Still, my question remains unanswered. You're intentionally wasting my time. There is no quantitative data in the game which is assured until people confirm themselves or die. beyond 22/29 chances for being a townie 7/29 for being mafia aligned there are no numbers you can use to directly determine the percentage "mafia" you are. You know this. I know this. "the I'm 99% certain he's a mafia" line, or variations thereof is simply meant to express that one person strongly believes in the statement. But why are you even talking about his use of a fairly transperant literary device? Please tell me.
To know, check my numbers. They are revealing, are they not?
Edit: And I wasn't trying to waste your own time. You were not the target. But yes, that's what's happening right now.
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I thought I'd try my hand at this, by the way. Empirically based, by the way.
Mafia Percentages (Plus/Minus 5 percentage points for total accuracy)
1. Caller - 36%
2. Incognito - 34%
3. scamp - 14%
4. scaramanga - 0%
5. bloodyc0bbler - 31%
6. fishball - 19%
7. nemy - 78%
8. fusionsdf - 67%
9. Ver - 59%
10. bockit - 0%
11. plexa - 70%
12. camlito - 82%
13. showtime! - 20%
14. mikeymoo - 45%
15. dreamflower - 47%
16. ace - 9%
17. infundibulum - 43%
18. vivi57 - 38%
19. mynock - 28%
20. lucaswoj - 35%
21. amber[light] - 39%
22. rebirthoflegend - 0%
23. MTF - 0%
24. 0cz3c - 0%
25. infinity21 - 87%
26. heavonearth - 95%
27. Tricode - 0%
28. Malongo - 0%
29. MrBabyHands - 69%
30. L - 63%
31??? LTT 1%
Chances that the person is NOT mafia (plus/minus say...2 percentage points)
1. Caller - 64%
2. Incognito - 66%
3. scamp - 86%
4. scaramanga - 100%
5. bloodyc0bbler - 69%
6. fishball - 50%
7. nemy - 36%
8. fusionsdf - 70%
9. Ver - 89%
10. bockit - 100%
11. plexa - 17%
12. camlito - 43%
13. showtime! - 19%
14. mikeymoo - 61%
15. dreamflower - 54%
16. ace - 91%
17. infundibulum - 85%
18. vivi57 - 42%
19. mynock - 28%
20. lucaswoj - 68%
21. amber[light] - 59%
22. rebirthoflegend - 100%
23. MTF - 100%
24. 0cz3c - 100%
25. infinity21 - ~30%
26. heavonearth - 23%
27. Tricode - 100%
28. Malongo - 100%
29. MrBabyHands - 25%
30. L - 34%
31???! LTT - 99%
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EPT
