EPThope this game lasts longer than the last one :D
edit: I got a question. Will you make it public that a player has been incarcerated or even name the player? Will this affect a mafia player as in mafia's KP goes down if a player is incarcerated?
TL Mafia 5 [Game Over]
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
hope this game lasts longer than the last one :D edit: I got a question. Will you make it public that a player has been incarcerated or even name the player? Will this affect a mafia player as in mafia's KP goes down if a player is incarcerated? | ||
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
MrBabyhand's idea is based fully on behavioural analysis which is fine to a certain extent, but obviously he trusts that too much. People on tl.net are not sheep. I was killed because of this when I was innocent in Ace's game while I heavily contributed for the town in Chuiu's (I think it was) 3rd game when I was mafia. While behavioural analysis might be right in like 70% of all cases, saying stuff like On March 18 2009 05:47 MrBabyHands wrote: Which tells us that: quatol caller bw semioldguy pyrr bloddycobbler are all very likely innocent. is over the top. You take it as fact that mafia is stupid and that is naive. There have always been mafia players who actively contributed in town's favour and I doubt this game will be any different. That's why I vote for Pyrrhuloxia. | ||
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
On March 19 2009 05:06 MrBabyHands wrote: i disagree. i think a skilled player can nail the mafia with amazingly high odds using behavioral analysis. much higher than 70% they are. and they make mistakes-- they overcompensate or underperform. they have slight imperfections in their posts and sometimes they try so hard to look innocent that it backfires. mafia are under more pressure than innocents, and 9 times out of 10, you can tell if you know where to look. Just to make that clear, I'm not saying behaviour analysis is a bad thing. It was the most dominant key to town's success in most mafia games on this site, but it was always only successful in combination with clue analysis (and the DT/Jack power). I just think you're jumping the gun when you say a player like Caller is most likely innocent when all he did was say he'd run for mayor and another one saying he's not running. That said, I don't think he acted suspiciously, just that we need deeper analysis than what you offered thus far. | ||
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
On March 19 2009 07:37 MrBabyHands wrote: Second Test: Yesterday, I posted a list of the people I believe are innocent. Some people questioned it. Since i was sure the mafia werent online or participating at the time, questioning such a list is certainly something the logged-on innocents would do. Like how? Unless you are in their irc channel or sth how are you supposed to know the mafia players are not online or participating? This is getting ridiculous. On March 19 2009 07:37 MrBabyHands wrote:But a lot changes in a night. Today, i fully expected the mafia to read yesterday's posts, including my list. I also expected them to notice that i said "questioning the list is something an innocent would do." So, if the mafia read that, I would expect them to start doing just that-- questioning the list in an attempt to appear as innocent as the others. Of the 3 people i identified earlier, one of them also questioned the list: mandalor That's like posting "mafia players are so stupid, they can't calculate 2+1" and when the first person says it's "3", he has to be mafia. If you seriously think I'd fall for that, I have no hopes for you. On March 19 2009 07:37 MrBabyHands wrote:In addition, mandalor's direct response to the list was -------- On March 19 2009 04:55 Mandalor wrote: You take it as fact that mafia is stupid and that is naive. -------- In my experience, it's usually the mafia that explicitly defends a quality of the mafia (in this case, he defended the mafia's intelligence). I am now convinced that mandalor is mafia. how is that for behavioral analysis? In my experience the players who stir the most shit, going on a blind witchhunt are most likely to be mafia. How is that for behavioral analysis? Your behavioral analysis is based purely on thinking anyone who criticizes you or posted after the first day has to be mafia. That is hilarious and I hope everyone can see that, I haven't read the replies to this, yet. | ||
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
gj semioldguy! | ||
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
| ||
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
On this note, I bring to you all another suspect from the investigations of mrbabyhands and myself....Mandalor! (brackets + italics are my adding). The first part is true, the second is a blatant lie. Mandalor never contributed to the town when he was mafia, and furthermore his second statement was a mafia point. Using false evidence to make a point for the mafia...I wonder. Again, it's not a lie. I did warn the town to not elect a major that has a potential clue attached to him (it was Ghar, who was innocent but still that is an advice I would always give). Now that doesn't necessarily count as contribution for everyone, but it does for me. Then again, why would I even lie about it? There's tons of players in this game that also played the old game. This is Mandalor's history: ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Game 2- Mafia. Tried to fake DT, Ace tricked him in a rolecheck test and died at first lynch. Game 3- Townie. This game he contributed quite a bit to the town with his own plan and actively debated suspects and ideas. Because of this, the mafia killed him off night 2. This is the only game where he actively contributed publically. Ace's game- Townie. Stayed silent but was active. At the end of game 3 (before Ace's game began) he said he would be lying low to avoid being killed off early again. He fit my pattern of a previous contributer trying to hide as an inactive while being mafia, and I killed him second lynch. Chuiu's previous aborted game- Medic. Just voted and tried to lay low so he wouldn't get killed. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I'm not going to comment this now, but I'll use it later. 3 points against him in my own analyses: 1) He lied. His lie was trying to prove a mafia point. This point was to cast doubt on mrbabyhand's statement claiming that certain players were innocent because they were dissecting strategies. Mandalor wanted to show that mafia had contributed heavily to town strategy discussion. He just didn't realize that he couldn't use himself as an example. I did not lie. It's true I used it to cast doubt on mrbabyhand's analysis, because it's simply wrong concerning me. Mafia players have been running for major positions and contributed by doing (wrong) clue analysis or just giving general advice (like what I did). MrBabyHands completely ruled the people out that were running for major and contributed on the first day and I criticized that because some mafia players in the past have been quite loud from the first day on. 2) He is attacking mrbabyhand's analyses with mafia reasoning: casting doubt on valid statements while adding nothing new. I'm not sure what to say to this. What else am I supposed to do? His analysis is wrong and I pointed out its flaws. There's not much else I can do. 3) He no longer fears mafia death, a direct switch from his previous 2 games as a town role. Why would I not fear mafia death? Dying as a mafia player is worse than dying as a townie or a blue. Your life is more important. This is the part where my "history" comes into play. In the last 3 games or so I have always said I hate to die early. Now imagine this: You've been dying in the first few days in mafia games for like 5 consecutive games for whatever reasons. Now imagine you've gotten the mafia role. Would you come out and openly criticize the head-of-analysis MrBabyHands who is backed up by like 90% of all vets? Yeah, me neither. Thinking about it, mafia death could also mean getting killed by mafia. If you mean that, I was killed by the mafia because I contributed heavily and came up with a (pretty good imo, if I may say so myself) plan. While I criticized MrBabyHands to a certain extent, it was not enough to make me a primary target and now that you guys want to see me dead, I'm even less of a target for mafia. Notice how in all of his history, he was only mafia once and in that game he died immediately after staying silent until the last minute; the complete opposite of what he claimed. I suppose it's possible that he somehow forgot that he never did what he claimed as mafia (lol). Read that thread again. Once again, I was not silent. I did lay low after the major was elected, but I was rather loud before. Of course it's far more likely that he's lying because he's mafia trying to manipulate the town: after mrbabyhand's post asserting those people innocent he wants to make the town suspect those who were contributing to strategy discussion. The only reason I'd be questionable of my own logic is that it's such a huge and obvious blunder that a careful mafia shouldn't ever make. But I think his obvious motivations and the simple fact that mafia do slip up makes it a pretty convincing argument. And there's more. Never did I say that we need to make those suspect who do analysis and contribute. The only thing I said is that we should not completely rule out the possibility that some people who contribute might also be mafia. People who contribute are more likely to be innocent, but saying stuff like "Person A and B said something on day 1 and ran for major, they are innocent" is the wrong attitude. As shown by the game history, when a town role, he's switched his style to that of lying low to avoid being killed early. In Ace's and Chuiu's latest game he basically didn't say anything and just voted. In this game, however, he spoke out immediately and was not afraid to make himself a possible mafia target. Maybe he got sick of staying silent early? Maybe he saw something that he alone could correct? Actually, you're contradicting yourselves here. MrBabyhands criticized that I was silent until he posted "test 1" and you're criticizing that I "spoke out immediately" (which is not true btw). So, no matter what I did, one of you would criticize it. However, I think it's because he saw something that was true, and pointed out something bad for the mafia (mrbabyhand's statement of how the mafia weren't participating in strategy discussion). This first came to my attention because Mandalor now is speaking without fear of death. That fear of mafia death made him stay absolutely silent the previous 2 games (up until he was to be lynched). Now he's speaking freely. I wonder if he's doing this because he doesn't fear the mafia anymore hmm. This is something I discussed in pms with you. I don't know why you're bringing that up once again when you were wrong the last time. I was inactive in Ace's game, because I regretted signing up in the first place. The game was packed with roles, different mafia families and whatnot that made me care less about the game. Chuiu's last game only lasted a day, I had nothing to contribute. ------------------------ So much about Ver's analysis. Now there's one more thing I want to say: Did you notice who was killed today? First of all, Scaramanga. Yesterday, it was literally me and Scaramanga who were sure to be killed and now he's dead. If I was mafia, would I like to target the guy that might save for me for another day? And then, Ver. He was, together with MrBabyHands, the most important player who wanted to see me dead. Killing him makes his analysis look stronger and I wouldn't want that. People even started to bandwagon a vote on me because the guy that criticized me is now dead until Ace stopped them. I could have never forseen that Ace would do that. ----------------------- Now that SoG found out that I'm a miller this post is most likely to be worthless. I hate you, Chuiu. It's in town's best interest to kill me even though I'm not mafia, because you guys will never be able to find out if I'm miller or mafia any other way. | ||
|
Mandalor
Germany2362 Posts
 I completely stopped following this thread to avoid any temptation to post or help mafia so I cannot comment on our play after my death. | ||
| ||
