EPTBy announcing it right now, choosing me is less likely to end up with a mafia mayor than someone who runs for mayor after roles are assigned.
VOTE FOR ME(When the time comes)
TL Mafia 2 [GG]
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
By announcing it right now, choosing me is less likely to end up with a mafia mayor than someone who runs for mayor after roles are assigned. VOTE FOR ME(When the time comes) | ||
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because mafia will want to be mayor obviously. so if 1/7 people are mafia, right now, by electing me when my behavior is both known and independant of role, there would be 6/7 chance that Im a townie. After the roles are assigned and mafia start gunning for office, it much more likely that a candidate will be from the mafia. | ||
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The mayor should be a person who can think independently, follow clues, is dedicated and able to use the role wisely. As the first person to make a profile list in the last game, along with all the other clue research me and plexa did, I think I make an excellent candidate. I suggest every other person running for office, do the same as I do and announce their intentions now. Everyone who doesn't might be doing it for mafia motives. | ||
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On March 13 2008 15:48 qrs wrote: You're assuming that a higher percentage of Mafia than of townies will run for mayor, which is not necessarily true, and wasn't, in the last game. its a smart mafia strategy.....mayor is an extremely valuable position for a mafioso to hold I don't expect them to dodge it twice Once the game starts, you'll have to ask yourself if every candidate is applying to further mafia goals. But anyone who declares themselves known is free from ulterior motives. Plus, I'll wear these cool elky-style sunglasses when I post  | ||
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On March 13 2008 15:57 qrs wrote: What do you expect?--be precise. That one mafioso will run for Mayor? Two? All of them? I agree with you that it's a smart strategy to have a Mafia candidate. It's not necessarily smart for the Mafia to have multiple candidates--in fact, I think that's a bad idea for a number of reasons. Townies will not have the same compunctions about multiple candidates. If a smaller fraction of the Mafia than of the townies runs for Mayor, then you've given us a reason not to vote for you. I expect them to field 1 or 2 candidates. It would be fairly easy for them to subtly influence the vote. 5 coordinated votes, properly timed, could be enough to secure the proper mafia candidate. It would be a huge bonus: the instant lynch, the prospect of mafia-timed double lynches, and would have minimal risk to the mafia as a whole. An optimal strategy would be for the mafia to field a whole bunch of candidates. Through coordination, it would only take 2 or 3 voters to push a candidate from no-name to front runner. It would be subtle, and hard to determine if it had occurred. And it would implicate such a small fraction of the mafia that the signal would effectively be lost in the noise. Even if the mayor came under suspicion, it would be impossible to trace that suspicion back to other mafia amid all the scattered towny votes. In such a system, unless a townie has a cult of personality, he would be unlikely to have more than one vote for him. Further not everyone playing has proved their deductive abilities. It would be worse than useless to pick a mayor with no game sense. My dedication to the last game, and the fact that me and plexa found proper suspects, such as empyrean, zdd and unforgiven almost a month before the mainstream players shows that I would be extremely valuable in interpreting clues. If I'm not mayor, that usefulness will probably lead to my death in the first round. I don't intend to hold back my interpretations no matter the result, but if I can only work off one night of clues before the mafia kills me, then I can't contribute. I can make Liquidia safe again! | ||
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On March 13 2008 16:51 nemY wrote: I VOTE FOR FUNSIONSDF to be lynched right now for starting his mayoral campaign before the game has even started. I'm like barack obama camping out Iowa | ||
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they'll probably use something like http://www.random.org/integers/ | ||
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that makes no sense lol Obviously there is a chance any of us could end up being mafia.....but its like a 1/7 chance lol thats a lot better odds than anyone else | ||
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On March 15 2008 00:33 Falcynn wrote:  You're breaking my balls man.Edit: Also just a random thought, wouldn't it technically be advantageous for mafia to not even try to run for mayor? I mean it seems like everyone here assumes that at least one person who runs for mayor HAS to be mafia. So if the mafia don't even bother to put a candidate up, then later in the game all those towny candidates will essentially end up being scapegoats for the lynchings. All I'm trying to say basically, is when we start lynching people...please come up with a better reasoning than "Well he ran for mayor and at least one of the candidates has to be mafia", because anyways...mayor seems to be useless to mafia. Besides the first lynching (which a towny mayor will probably get wrong anyways) the only powers the mayor has is his extra votes, which are pretty much useless if the town is even half decent (and if town sucks...then they REALLY don't need a mayor). As for the double lynching...well a mafia mayor would have to use his double lynchings in respect to the town's wishes anyways or risk being suspected as mafia. So in reality it seems that the wild goose chase that would ensue from not running for mafia would be more beneficial to them than the mayor or pardoner position would. I say the pardoner position is useless to mafia because then if he decides to pardon a fellow mafia without giving good reason then that guy will probably just be taken out by a vigilante at night. Afterwards the pardoner would be lynched by day giving the town two guaranteed mafia kills. mafia did that last game, and I highly doubt they would do it again for a couple reasons 1) there are more people, so its harder to figure out who the mafia candidate would be if they exist. Because of this, we have absolutely no idea if mafia runs a candidate or not, which means no real risk for mafia running. We just wont know if its happening or not, so they might as well take advantage of that. Getting us to lynch an innocent mayor is probably fun, but has less advantage for them than just securing the spot in the first place, since even a mistrusted townie mayor still gets a free lynch and can still declare double lynch which obviously benefits the town. 2)Again, because of the numbers and the nature of mob mentality, mafia would only have to risk a very small number of votes to tip the vote to their candidate. This assumes they have a candidate. Obviously, since we cant tell if mafia even brought a candidate (which would be the smart choice) or if they were successful in swinging the vote, we cant exactly start suspecting the mayor because of voting patterns. You are basically dealing with signal vs noise. Townies have no unified information, and act basically as a mob.(emotional contagion, herd theory, etc.) Because the mafia are unified and coherent (signal) they can greatly sway the vote. Basically once a few votes start going to a candidate, more votes will follow. Once they get a mafia mayor, he can be subtle to try and mislead the town, or he can simply say screw you guys I'm mafia. Trading one day's lynch and preventing future double lynches still benefits the mafia. (Not that he should, but I'm just trying to show that mafia mayor benefits mafia in every case, even if he gets lynched) 3) There are huge benefits to being mayor. Preventing double lynch is huge, so is the election day lynch. Mafia mayor makes the bodyguards pretty much useless, especially if the pardoner is mafia/lynched. The mayor is really a super detective. They can be obvious about their suspicions without fearing death. So its best not to waste that position on either mafia or people who aren't good at clues/willing to spend a ton of time deciphering clues, making lists, researching etc. A mafia mayor really plays a denial role to one of only two hit-proof roles. | ||
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Subject: Mafia Date: 3/18/08 11:37 Hey, you barely know me, but you might have seen me around TL.net particularly the mafia game. This is just a PM to ask you to vote for me for mayor, because that would rock. I'm sure you have your own ideas, but if you are undecided and don't know whom to vote for, please consider me, randombum. Here are some reasons as to why I would be a good choice. 1: I spend far too much time at home, so I will always have time to check tl.net and do the double lynch if the town asks. 2: I will always double lynch if town asks (a good thing) 3: I will be taking an active role trying to figure out clues and this way I will be able to willingly post them without fear of mafia taking me out. 4: I took the time to write this pm to you hoping to convince you so you do not have to look though pages of spam in the actual thread. Thanks, randombum hmmmmm | ||
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are the mafia going to kill you again? | ||
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I will have a post showing my usefulness soon, hopefully some time tonight If you have any doubts about me, I suggest you look at my earlier posts, and the endorsement from plexa | ||
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But I am not the one | ||
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a ha | ||
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On March 19 2008 06:51 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote: The mafia have by now had enough time to read my megapost and formulate an opinion on whether they want me killed or not. It would appear that my guesses are for the large part correct, and thus they're trying to turn public support against me. Go for it guys ^^ I think your suspicions are a good start. don't take a joke the wrong way. | ||
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On March 19 2008 07:01 ShaLLoW[baY] wrote: Last game a joke got Dr.Dragoon directly lynched, followed by a string of indirect lynchings and deaths. Putting all of the spaces doesn't seem to do anything by the way. last time a joke got you killed as well | ||
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a giuliani strategy | ||
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