| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
Eager to avenge their ancestor's death, in a small town 300 years ago... at the hands of the insane mayor FakeSteve... a small band of marine's ventured forth... But they were butchered and eaten by a bunch of Jaedong's lings, feeding the swarm. Thus, the descendants of Alethios were unable to participate in that which they were traveling towards... The Team Liquid Mafia 2 [Signups]. Bummer. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
Either he's lying or he's being idiotic for personal gain. Neither of which are qualities we want in a mayor. EDIT: Ace above me pretty much sums it up. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
On March 19 2008 15:32 HotZhot wrote: I think people running for mayor should state who are they lynching as their first act. It is very important to discuss it because we don't want another FS doing whatever he wants. (although I have to admit it was a lot of lol) I resent that. It's a good idea however, if the candidate has somebody in mind already. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
On March 19 2008 15:42 Ace wrote: I do have a good idea of how I'm going to go about using that first lynch, I just haven't decided on a person yet because it's pretty much impossible to do it right now. Could you enlighten us on this? Your method of selection. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
No hard feelings. On March 19 2008 19:06 CDRdude wrote: If you know so much about American politics, why does your profile list you as from Afghanistan? I'm not really sure about Ralph Nader's international prestige, but I really doubt it extends to Afghanistan. And it might not extend to Australia either, which is what Ghar's profile lists. With the USA being the immensely powerful nation that it is, American's aren't the only people to follow it's politics. Simply because you don't follow Australian, Afghan or New Zealand politics doesn't mean we don't. I would advise against having Empyrean in public service. The reasons have been stated by others. His rolecalling was either a tactical blunder or a tactic to illicitly gain out trust. That being said, since i'm currently voting for Ace, thus am partly to blame for Empyrean's position of second place. Très suspicious ne? | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
2. Tough luck on the lynch result, but chances were that we weren't going to get anybody. While i'm sure most realise this, the fact that Inc was a blue... tells us nothing at all about Ace, nobody knew about any blue player other than themselves. 3. I would encourage people to use their votes liberally, and to change them as often as they see fit. Vote counts provoke discussion, and generally a defense from the bloke on death row. This defense can then be analysed for inconsistencies and so forth. Don't withhold your votes, don't 'save them' for later in the day, like discussion, voting is good for the town. 4. Do we have any news yet on the bodyguard plan? May well have missed a post about it. With even more people than last time... the time difference means when I come home, there is another 30 pages new from last night, so I'll probably miss the odd post here and there. If Ace could simply let us know when stage 1 has been completed, that would be dandy. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
Love all the Tentin Qurantino references, not sure how far they'll get us early on in this game. My prediction is that later in the game however, they'll come in handy. ----- Just to remind everybody to do two things: 1. Send in your role to Ace (who by now is almost certainly innocent). 2. Vote vote! The day is still young and there is plenty of time to accuse and acquit multiple people :D 3. Talk, talk. Seriously, being silent is really really bad for the town, and is thus, bad for you. Just look at last games cult of death list if you need more evidence. So many of them were inactive and never noticed by the masses. It was one of the main reasons the town lost the last game. Get talking, but keep it on topic and thoughtful. "lol inc died" is not helping anything. Theorycraft on Diablo's minions and the events thus far is on the horizon. EDIT: Added link to the voting page. Click it. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
On March 22 2008 20:34 Energies wrote: The fact that most of your suspects are completely different from mine makes me think that you are Mafia drawing attention away from your brethren, I vote we lynch the kiwi. I have 100% proof that he is Mafia, which I will reveal once he is lynched. What do you mean "the kiwi? Bastard! All seriousness aside, Ace's plan, thus far unrevealed, is curious. We can be fairly certain he is town, yes... but withdrawing our votes could have unforeseen consequences. Daytime has a habit of running out on us (read: me) in inopportune times. If the town (for townies are most likely to heed Ace's advice) withdraws it's votes, and the day runs out before Ace's plan comes to fruition... It could leave us in the situation where the Assassin's Guild could easily kill a townie (wasting our lynch, and killing one of us), without any serious effort on their part. That is to say, we won't be given a list of which 9 out of 11 people (or whatever it was... I was pushing up daisies at the time) are mafia. I've complied with Ace's request, and hope that the sun's course across the sky is slowed by Māui's jaw bone. Kia Kaha. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
As an old school WoW player (don't socially ostracize me, I gave up years ago).... "Ghar" to me is the one of Ragnaros' lieutenants. Ragnaros was the BigBad in the early versions of WoW, before patches brought in Newer and Harder raid instances. Ghar was a big black and red rock elemental. He had 8 minions, which were smaller versions of himself. As you rushed in, and he agro'd, he would cast a spell. The spell was to remove all buffs from everybody in the raid. Ghar: -Baddie -Links to colours -Henchman of Ragnaros/Godfather -Ability could be indicative of Role Blocker status. ------ Voted Mandalor, as per request. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
| ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
58 votes to kill Mandalor, next closest Ghar on 7. Tomorrow we don't have as much to go on, and while Ghar will probably snuff it between now and dusk tomorrow... beyond that it's very unclear what will happen. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
Wooooooo! Go us / Ace. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
On March 24 2008 17:52 AcrossFiveJulys wrote: I'm beginning to think that next game we might think about PM's not being allowed except for mafia, because as a vanilla townie im not even involved in this game at all anymore and have no way of finding out what's going on. It makes sense to go for the winning strategy, so let's just tweak the rules so that this kind of situation can't happen (half the people in this game are plain townies for gods sake...) I'm actually feeling something similar to this at the moment. I'm withholding judgment for a day or two though, because I think it will pick up big time. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
It's the whole "If I die, lynch x" thing, roled up into one action. Problem is, by killing the person when they are saying that (assuming x isn't mafia), they effectively kill two people instead of one. Flawed role. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
---------- By now, Ace has enough information on us, and enough of us trust him to lead the opposing side to an easy victory. Assuming he's mafioso that is, it's unlikely but still plausible. Imagine this scenario, if you will. 1) Ace is a member of the Death Company. 2) Ace is roleblocked by fellow cult member. 3) His word leads Town to an early lead. 4) No detectives speak out about him.... causing the town to trust Ace absolutely. 5) Ace sets up two blue townies, and we all follow him like lemmings. 6) The dead's allegiances are revealed, and all Ace has to do is say "huh" Now i'll explain why this is possible. 1) Obvious, he was given the role. 2) A clever ruse, to help Ace gain our trust. Here is what chuiu has to say about Saboteurs: "he may disable one players [sic] abilities" It doesn't say that this person may not be a fellow Satan Worshiper. 3) Again, a clever ruse. 4) Look again at the detective's ability. The detective has 3 powers, one of which would be useless in determining Ace's colour. The other two are: -You have the ability to ask me whether or not a specific clue points to a specific person and get a yes/no answer. -You have the ability to, twice a game, ask me what role a specific person has. If a detective used the first ability, chances are he's going to get back a "no". If he uses the second, chances are that he's going to get "no special role" returned. In both cases, the detective will not speak up. Leading us, and the detectives, to believe Ace walks in the light. 5) Judging from the reaction to wurm's denouncement, Ace has deduced correctly that he is able to kill off two important townies tomorrow afternoon, simply by having the majority follow him like sheep. 6) If two townies are hung, or two blues... Ace is still in the clear. All he needs to do is sight wurm's behavior and the action will be justified. From this point on, all that he needs to do is implore people to vote for X, and X will be hung. By the time we figure out what is going on, it will be too late. So, there you have it... Ace COULD be a Viper, playing the role of his life. It's unlikely, but I implore everybody to consider the fundamental theorem of this game: Only trust yourself, the dead, and confirmed teammates (Diablo's fellow minions, Bodyguards if Mayor). Keep in mind that Ace is a very intelligent person. Isn't it possible that Ace thought through this logic before me and discovered a sure fire way for the Deadly Viper Assassination Squad to win the game. Wouldn't it be damned fun to play the way Ace is now? ----------------- That being said, I by and large trust Ace and I have a large dose of respect for many of his ideas... but what has prompted me to speak up is this plan of his for tomorrow's vote. IT'S RETARDED. You're splitting up two different lists, in the hope that the demon's will present themselves in a more obvious light. This in itself has nothing wrong with it, but (assuming your town) haven't considered the ramifications. 1) More than likely, more than a few people will not vote... and claim they were away. Leading to the whole system being a farce. But it gets worse... 2) Chances are, you aren't going to catch anybody. You'll have a list of people in which some are Undead... but you could do just as well by taking a random sample. Good work. 3) You're wasting an entire day/night cycle of detective power. 4) You're setting up a situation where YOU decide who the two suspects are to be. This is a problem not only because there is still a chance you might be mafia... but you exclude the town from making up their own minds. Bad for entertainment value, and also the key precepts upon which the town should always vote. Making up your own mind about who to vote for and not jumping upon bandwagons. 5) Deserter's such as myself are required to be punished, otherwise the whole idea falls down. But what about if they have actual reasons for not doing as you wish? What if they see your idea as being flawed, or do not trust you? I shall not vote as you prescribe Ace. It's stupid and almost counterproductive assuming you are town, and truly terrible if you are satanic. I encourage you all to start thinking for yourselves once more. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
I don't mean to suggest that you are part of the multi-international corporation, simply that you could be. However, I DO mean to suggest that your plan for tomorrow's voting is stupid, because it is. If there were higher numbers of mafia in each list... I might condone it. As it stands however, if you took a random sample... your data would probably lie within 1 std deviation of what you've got. Not enough to act upon. Give up, try another tack. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
On March 26 2008 16:09 Showtime! wrote: If that is the last defence of the mafia then they just failed.     Please tell me you aren't talking about Ace... If so, please go and read what I actually had to say. ----- On March 26 2008 16:05 Ace wrote: explain your math, because right now it's not adding up. Put simply... 1/7 Guilty in the first lot (this is your better sample) is still only 14.3% mafia. Compare this to the total murderers in the game, over the total players. 22/130 = 16.9% mafia Then you have your 10/58 Guilty in the second lot.... Which is slightly more at 10/58 = 17.2% but still not far from the mean. Furthermore, much more effort is required to separate out these mafia than in the first lot. Seriously... I don't buy your "math isn't adding up" for a second. I realise that (assuming you ARE town) you have to maintain the trust of the town, but persisting with this stupid scheme isn't helping in the slightest. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
On March 26 2008 16:22 Alventenie wrote: I thought the saboteur and suicide bomber were included in the 20 mafia o.o, because there are 110 townies out of 130, so thats 20 left for mafia slots. therefore its 20/130, not 22/130 Ah good point. Rather misleading first post. I conceed this however. The total percentage of Mafia is infact 15.4% Doesn't change a thing however. Your lists have about the error you'd expect to find in a random sample. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
On March 26 2008 16:24 Showtime! wrote: You are blinder and dumber than I thought. bye bye kiwi. Oh please.... don't even try to pull that one on me. Please don't forget your the one who's name was being bandied about in connection the clues not long ago... I had hoped you were talking about me, interesting you picked up that I am female... Instead of saying "so says the mafioso" why don't you try to actually pick apart my argument. Might be a bit more productive. | ||
|
Alethios
New Zealand2765 Posts
On March 26 2008 16:31 Alventenie wrote: I believe what Ace is going on is that even though the % is close to the mean in that group of 58, its a better % of finding mafia and innocents (say one group there is no mafia, other has all 10), than say, choosing the group that didn't vote/abstained from voting. Therefore, he is picking the most reasonable approach of the use of this detective power. While i think he should just use one detective role on the ghar group, its really up to him, and if he finds mafia that way, then good for him. Otherwise until you provide a better plan (and i mean complete plan of action tomorrow) to use those powers and make them more useful than what Ace is doing, I suggest you not try and post stuff saying that his way is retarded. Going on prior evidence, the Mafia are more likely, statistically to be the ones lurking. So i'm not sure what evidence you have to say it's better than choosing the group that didn't vote/abstain... Furthermore, I'm not required to provide an alternate plan in order to point out that the current one is stupid, but I shall anyway. 1) Vote how you see fit, acting upon Ace's evidence against somebody if you wish. This has worked well in the past, and will again. 2) Detectives use their powers to find out useful information. One such use would be to check the new (fresh) lists for mafia and cross-referencing the two lists. This will almost certainly result in far better results. 3) Don't let yourself become removed from the loop. Yes, I think we should trust Ace for now... but don't allow yourself to become a bystander, as it puts too much trust in Ace. Satisfied? Bet you thought I wouldn't come up with one. | ||
| ||
|
|
CSO Contender
Sparkling Tuna Cup
Online Event
Esports World Cup
ByuN vs Astrea
Lambo vs HeRoMaRinE
Clem vs TBD
Solar vs Zoun
SHIN vs Reynor
Maru vs TriGGeR
herO vs Lancer
Cure vs ShoWTimE
Esports World Cup
Esports World Cup
Esports World Cup
CranKy Ducklings
|
|
|
EPT
