TL Mafia LXVIII: Fanfic Crossover Edition

On August 01 2014 22:47 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Random collection of thoughts:

I'm fairly certain DC was bussed. Given he had literally no defense of himself, either he gave up when the jig was up, so to speak, or was deliberately dying to advance mafia interests. Or perhaps abit of both, idk. But literally posting nothing but a vote change is about as white flag and suspicious as all hell, and leads me to conclude he was bussed.

Two possibilities: Either it's to deflect from meatpudding, who was a mafia power role and thus preferential to keep alive if both are up for lynch (but that assumes we lucked out on two mafia bandwagons D1: something I feel isn't very likely, and that mafia has a power role, which isnt confirmed and is thus speculation), or to cover for someone who is now currently on the DC train. I'm scrutinizing GB, but there seems little incentive to swap so late after the silence from DC was seriously deafening, or to be the "decisive vote" (how he was painted that I have no idea).

Assuming he was bussed then, either this was a pre-meditated part of mafia strategy (and mafia could've even started the wagon) since as a D1 mafia kill, this was too "easy", or spur of the moment. It significantly impacts who's under the microscope on the vote list, I think.

Or perhaps its super WIFOM and the mafia stayed on meat, but given how there was no defense of DC, it makes little/no sense.

I'm actually looking at TehPoofter again given the possibility of bussing here. But given a votelist analysis under the assumption of bussing, without ANY prior reads I'd say the following.


People who should be a D2 wagon:
Meatpudding (unless things change drastically, step it up)

People who are suspicious as all hell:
GB
Me (even tho confirmed town)

People who should be reviewed carefully:
Banks
Jenny
lilwade

People who are most likely stupid town (like srs, DC put up no defense whatsoever):
Teemu
Seeya

If you're mafia, fuck you. Everything's locked in. :D

On August 03 2014 10:21 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Alright, time for me to get active. Free time inc.


1) I'm starting to see posts from MP that are comforting me with my assumption he's townie.

#unvote Meatpudding

Continue this trend, plox. Additionally, what are your thoughts on Banks, and give me a detailed explanation why. Why do you think he is the most espoused town exactly?

Also, where is your push onto lilwade?



I see your case on GB and cya, but not on lilwade, and to continue to say you're eyeing him. Can I hear your suspicions?

2) GB: This is bad, very bad as you very well note.




FINE LETS MAKE A HYPOTHETICAL. Meatpudding gets lynched today and flips green. Who do you think is potential scum now? LET'S REMOVE MP FROM THE EQUATION HERE.


I'll be honest, I think meatpudding is more useful town than you are atm. I think you're both (stupid) town (you mostly because I don't think mafia would be stupid enough not to closely check the votelist before claiming to have brought the hammer down on his partner) btw, but if I had to choose, I'd much rather you die than meatpudding here since meatpudding is at least considering other options and thus strikes me as more town. IF YOU'RE TOWN, CONVINCE ME.

3) Seeya: why do you think Teemu is donkey town exactly?

4) lilwade: I understand RL issues, it's what's been keeping me all week. Now then, I want to hear much more from you right now. Why do you think meatpudding is more likely to be scum, when GB has been even more unhelpful D2 than MP (who has been entertaining alternate mafia possibilities, versus MP tunnelvision)?

I also really want to hear much more from you starting now (and you should all expect the same from me).

5) Teemu: what are your thoughts on lilwade and Banks.

6) TehPoofter wants to club baby seals. confirmed canuck, canadian mole, better lynch now


I'll be on the rest of the night if you guys want to establish a rapport, but these are some major questions I want answered now.

I'll give my vote and mafia case later.

On August 04 2014 22:42 Lord Tolkien wrote:
The mislynch of MP makes this game more difficult to solve, if it's not already obvious.

First, something I've been meaning to answer for awhile,


After carefully reviewing lilwade's filter, I'm revising my initial suspicions D1, and my suspicions D2 about him. Despite wishing he was more active (esp D2 onwards), his posts thus far have been succinct and town-oriented after I reviewed them a second time. At the time I started my grand list of questions, I was planning on pushing him as a bandwagon D3.

Indeed, I was going to present a case on him tonight before the flop as he was the only one I didn't get a town read off of by late D2, but I'm entirely frustrated by the posting patterns D2 (quite frankly, there was nothing truly alignment indicative or insightful D2, and was mostly just mindless "yeah lets just lynch meatpudding; GB stahp being stupid") and by my careful review of his filter. I severely need lilwade to post more for me D3 to allay my fears, but I'm starting to come around to see him as town.

Which fucks my current view of the damn game quite alot, because I was going to push hard for him D3. And if lilwade isn't mafia, I need to re-evaluate the people whom I considered town (Teemu/Banks) or donkey town (GB/Seeya).

I saw Banks' case and while it appears convincing, I still feel cya is donkey town in my prior reviews of his filter, and I'll review it again. If I die, DO NOT LET D3 degenerate to a single bandwagon tunnel on one person. Do not let this be a repeat of D2 and alllow bandwagons to stand for the entire day. ALWAYS LOOK FOR ALTERNATE BANDWAGONS, DO NOT BE COMPLACENT (COUGH GB COUGH).

OF PEOPLE WHO NEED TO STEP UP D3 IF YOU'RE TOWN:

Everyone not Banks


I mean that seriously. None of you (or I past D1) have been seriously pushing forward new cases D2, and I mean it. While cya probably looks the scummiest after the above case from Banks, DO NOT SHEEP HIM AND EVALUATE CYA ON HIS MERITS.

On August 06 2014 07:04 Lord Tolkien wrote:

If I have to choose between you and Banks right now, I'd vote on you. That's the issue. Who is more likely to be scum in my eyes? You.


If Banks is actually claiming vigi (if he's fakeclaiming, he's is stupid), then that opens up cya as mafia godfather, because with 2 blue roles it makes no sense otherwise. In which case the game gets harder.

Do I believe that cya is godfather? Not really no. My read on him has actually been the only one that's been consistent this entire game, and lilwade's claim corroborates it. If the possibility of godfather goes up, then cya's position as confirmed town is much weaker for me. But right now?

You're more likely scum.

And yes, I believe the cop claim for now. He'll die tonight if he's cop, because mafia won't let him live till tomorrow. He's likely not VT because he's not stupid enough to fake-claim (I HOPE), and I'm fairly certain mafia won't claim tonight; mafia would much rather claim LYLO.


The vigi claim is blowing my mind though. Like wat.

On August 06 2014 07:16 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Basically we should know tonight if lilwade IS ACTUALLY COP, so I see no reason to push onto him TODAY. If by some miracle he lives till LYLO, he becomes top scum candidate unless he gets a good check in (which is a 33-67% chance of happening), but until then, no.

It remains possible that cya is godfather, I'm not ruling that out. But honestly, I'm willing to risk it ATM since my gut has been telling me he's donkey town this entire game, and I have a cop check on him.

IN MY CURRENT TIER LIST OF PEOPLE TO LYNCH:

GB
Banks
Cya
lilwade (jumps to near first if he doesn't die tonight)

On August 06 2014 07:43 Lord Tolkien wrote:
Either cya dies or lilwade dies, regardless of who we lynch. So lynching them is not necessary. STICK WITH THE UNCONFIRMED TOWN (me, Banks, you).

On August 06 2014 07:26 Lord Tolkien wrote:

1) why the fuck would they let him live when he has a 66% chance of checking someone in LYLO, and making the game that much harder for mafia.

2) who else would they shoot exactly; the only one who's "confirmed" town is cya if the check is correct, and there are 3 unconfirmed towns. IF WE LYNCH CYA and he's not mafia (which I currently believe), what then? Argh.

I suppose they'll shoot me or Banks if one of us isn't lynched tonight, but eh. It's a significantly weaker play I would think.


3) I wouldn't lynch lilwade immediately. It just puts him as prime lynch candidate. opinions *le gasp* change,