EPTAlso I think you should lower the possible blue power that town has... I do think it's op. Maybe 1 max blue role or something like that. Or no blue roles, that'd be nice too!
[S] Shadowed Mini Mafia: The Reboot
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Also I think you should lower the possible blue power that town has... I do think it's op. Maybe 1 max blue role or something like that. Or no blue roles, that'd be nice too! | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 06 2014 08:40 jaybrundage wrote: Don't be scum Balla I don't wanna have to lynch my clone D: Holy shit though we literally are clones like wtf... it's gonna be so stupid if one of us rolls scum.... It'll just be like: "Man wtf Balla you didn't think exactly like me you're probably scum ##vote Balla24" | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 06 2014 08:42 Hopeless1der wrote: You say that now, but I do that as town as well. LXIV most recently. EDIT: whoops ur not in the current game | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 06 2014 08:34 JonnyLaw wrote: Man I felt so vindicated when LM flipped doc. The let down. I can't imagine what you were thinking during that whole ordeal: - Man i'm gaining steam, JB is so fucking scum. - GOD DAMNIT i just outted the doctor - OH SICK FUCKING 100% CONFIRMED MAFIA! - (lonemeow flips) FUCKING KNEW IT YOU LITTLE PIECE OF SHIT - (artanis) god fucking damnit | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 06 2014 09:01 Koshi wrote: - (koshi) trolololololol koshi's just like: "uh what? ok? LOL" | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
- fuck jb is totally scum - god damnit now i have to cc or i get lynched and i probably will still anywyas cause I always get lynched as doctor - (gets lynched) fuck this im out. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 06 2014 09:03 Blazinghand wrote: Little known fact, JB and I started playing mafia basically in the same game, hosted by my all-time favorite host, Zona. It was a newbie game with a couple of vets, notably Palmar smurfing in as Electricblack. Before then JB had played in MM X, and we had both taken part in the massive clusterfuck that was TL Mafia XLVII. Suki is pretty ancient too. In her newbie games she has like... sandroba and sciberbia IIRC. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
I claim Harry Potter. EDIT: LOL I JUST HEARD SIDESPRANG'S COACH WAS HOLYFLARE FUCK I CAN'T STOP LAUGHING. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 06 2014 09:11 Toadesstern wrote: Everytime you say that I remember that game were you fakeclaimed Doctor as a VT despite town having a real doctor and told everyone that noone needs to worry about Syllo (I think it was Syllo?) because you're going to protect him and the real Doctor ended up protecting someone else because of that. Obviously Syllo (or whoever it was, it was a strong VET though) died that night. Was that the legendary annul game? I mean you're not that bad... but you're weird and always have these weird, very complex plans that in 99% of the cases will fail horribly. HAH! That's fucking awesome! It's so good because this game. I was going to claim vig and hope that everybody joined me and claimed vig with me so that vig gets a guaranteed shot on jaybrundage without RB. But foolishness told me not to  | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 06 2014 09:22 suki wrote: Like I would have been like.. Great. Now we have a fake doctor claim AND a fake vig claim. I'd probably shoot Jay and then push for your lynch day 2 haha. Haha yeah, it'd be too hard to coordinate for everybody to claim vig so it wasn't worth it. Maybe it would have been worth it for me to just say "EVERYBODY CLAIM VIG", then there's some wifom already for mafia. I would have retracted as soon as day 2 started, would be pretty easy to explain myself. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Especially you jonny i think you'd be funny here. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Exactly. You'd be great for voice! | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 06 2014 15:37 LoneMeow wrote: You'd just mislynch me on D1, I'm terrible at this game. Also my spoken English isn't anywhere near as good as my written (which admittedly isn't perfect either). Meh. In hindsight my read on you was mad weak. I wanted to pressure you myslf, but JB took the honors. My hopeless read was much stronger which is why I was hesitant to switch in the first place. Its just that it was also heavily based on the fact that he was afk, and people weren't biting on that. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Here's what I think is going on this game. Using your last 3 games, I have calculated everybody on the playerlist's chances of rolling mafia this game using basic math. I did not use games that you replaced into, as there is a possibility of it being likelier to replace into one alignment rather than the other, nor did I use ongoing games unless you have already flipped and thus everybody knows your alignment already and could not affect the game. I did use information from the last game, since it totally counts, unless you replaced into the game. Let's start: For each player, I found their last 3 games, and in each of those games I calculated the probability for each alignment and wrote down your alignment in that game. The probably incorrect mathematical theory is within the spoiler below: + Show Spoiler [The Theory] + In this game, every player has a 72% chance to roll town and a 28% chance to roll mafia. To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 3 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(town% game3) *P(mafia) = P(of a TTTM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 2 times out of 3: P(town% game 1) * P(town% game 2) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia) = P(of a TTMM situation) To calculate the chances of rolling mafia in this game if you have rolled town 1 times out of 3: P(town%game1) * P(mafia% game1) * P(mafia% game2) * P(mafia) = P(of a TMMM situation) And so on and so forth. If you have rolled mafia at ALL then the chances of any situation goes down significantly. + Show Spoiler + Note: that these are all independent events and in reality your chances of rolling mafia are completely independent of your previous games, therefore this is all bullshit anyways, but its fun! Also, fuck you jonny!!! Based on that theory: + Show Spoiler + Aquanim: T(.75) * T(.75) * T(.8) * M(.28) * 100% = 12.6% of rolling mafia Alakaslam: T(.8) * T(.76) * T(.72) * M(.28) * 100% = 12.2% chance to roll mafia Sidesprang: T(.76) * M(.28) * T(.76) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.52% chance to roll mafia LoneMeow: T(.72) * M(.25) * T(.8) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.03% chance to roll mafia Jaybrundage: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.25) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.83% chance to roll mafia Hopeless: M(.28) * T(.75)* T(.76) * M(.28) * 100% = 4.46% chance to roll mafia Oatsmaster: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.52% chance to roll mafia JonnyLaw: T(.76) * T(.76) * T(.72) * M(.28) * 100% = 11.64% chance to roll mafia Suki: T(.72) * T(.76) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 3.52% chance to roll mafia Koshi: M(.27) * T(.8) * M(.23) * M(.28) * 100% = 1.39% chance to roll mafia Me: T(.72) * M(.23) * M(.22) * M(.28) * 100% = 1.02% chance to roll mafia The conclusions: The town Koshi and I are mathematically literally and figuratively confirmed town. You cannot get more confirmed town than this except with mod-confirmation, regardless of how incredibly anti-town this whole thing is. Koshi with the 1.39% chance to roll mafia. Me with the 1.02% chance to roll mafia. Fight me on this, I dare you! Questionable players Oats Suki Jaybrundage LoneMeow Hopeless Sidesprang This is roughly in order of most to least town. None of you had a chance to post yet, so you all have had weak appearances. I'm okay with them right now since they clearly don't have a very high chance to roll mafia, and it is also obvious that others are probably way more mafia so they are likely to be town. Mafia Aquanim Alakaslam Jonnylaw I will go into a little more detail here: Actually I can't cause there's nothing to go into detail about With 12.6%, 12.2% and 11.64% chance to roll mafia respectively. These guys are PROBABLY mafia. This game is solved. QED. ##Vote Aquanim + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + + Show Spoiler + Disclaimer: huehueuhehuehuehueuheuheuhuhe this is all so useless because in reality everybody who has rolled less times as mafia also has a much higher chance to roll town and basically all I did was prove that every game was independent from each other huehuehueuheuheuheuhehuehueuhe... like jonny has a 39% chance to roll town town town town whereas I have a a 3% chance to roll town mafia mafia town and this is all for the lulz huehuehueuheuhehueuheuheuh and also i probably should have used some time of conditional probability formulas like bayern's theorem but i was too lazy to re-learn that so i just made stuff up   | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
On February 07 2014 07:04 JonnyLaw wrote: You can never go wrong lynching Balla. The odds our in our favor. I told you that you hate everything I post. My post literally, figuratively and mathematically shows that the odds are NOT in our favor to lynch me and lynching you, aquanim and Slam = odds in our favor. | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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Balla24
2322 Posts
Really Small Mafia (replaced into a doc spot, useless game to look at since the game ended pretty much right after he replaced in) TL Mafia LXIV: A game of intrigue (the non restart) TOWN Back To Basics (not really recent) | ||
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Balla24
2322 Posts
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