EPTWCS Season 3 Finals
Round of 16
Group A
Polt, Hack, Soulkey, MC
Group B
MMA, Trap, Jaedong, Genius
Group C
Dear, HerO, VortiX, Oz
Group D
ByuL, duckdeok, Maru, soO
Brackets and standings on Liquipedia
Round of 16 Preview
Love em or hate em, we're down to our last WCS Season Final of 2013, and this time we're headed north to Canada! Hopefully the esports fans have gotten over their depression from Scarlett and HuK's elimination and are ready to cheer on the players on at the first major event in Canada in over a year. It all begins on day one, where all four Ro16 groups will be played out.
Countdown:
Group A: Polt, Hack, Soulkey, MC
Group A features three kings of consistency, two of whom are very old school and one is rather new.
Both Polt and MC have been around since ancient times, competing in the very first GSL Open in 2010. Since then both have gone on to have storied careers, winning championships not just in Korea but all around the world.
What's more striking about this pair than their victories is their sheer consistency. They've been active for over three years, and are still championship caliber players. In Polt's case, he's won championships in 2011, 2012, and 2013. As for MC he's won in 2010, 2011, and 2012, and he still has enough time left in 2013 to make it four years in a row with a title.
Aside from the tournaments where they took first place, both players have made countless deep runs into tournaments, and it's no surprise they are #1 and #2 on the all-time earnings ranking. All of this has come with minimal slumps – they've experienced hiccups now and then but rarely have they fallen below Code S level.
As two players who have played for a very long time and have very many achievements to go along with that, Polt and MC get to play for special stakes at the WCS Season Finals, stakes that go beyond the usual prize money and glory. For MC, a championship here gives him his fourth consecutive year with a championship, pushes him WELL over $400,000 in winnings, and probably makes him the second greatest SC2 player of all time. I'm sorry to say it Nestea fans, but it's true. Nestea's three GSLs + nothing else was eventually going to get surpassed by the sheer volume of tournaments MC competes in, and the changing of places may very well happen in Toronto.
As for Polt, a win at the season finals could push him into the top four all time, alongside the holy trinity of Mvp-MC-Nestea. Without giving away too many details of a future article that's guaranteed to spark infinite controversy, we currently have Polt fighting with MMA, Life, and DRG to entered that hallowed tier. Yes, that friendly, cheery Terran next-door could also be one of the all-time greats of StarCraft 2. Go figure!
If MC and Polt have been consistent over the super-long term, Soulkey is attracting attention and breaking records in his own way. Over the course of one year and five Code S/OSL/WCS Korea tournaments, he has always placed top eight or better. To put that in perspective, the second best Ro8 streak ended at three. While Soulkey hasn't been around in SC2 for nearly as long as Polt or MC, the fact that he's stayed at a championship level with so little fluctuation is just as impressive as winning the "Nestea" award (for ten consecutive Code S Ro32's), if not even more so.
That said, he could really do with winning more championships. After winning in thrilling fashion against INnoVation at the Code S finals in may, Soulkey is becoming slowly overlooked despite his continued excellence. Soulkey could very well be the best player out of all sixteen in the tournament, but there's only one way to prove that.
Oh, uhhh and then there's Hack. How'd he get stuck up in here with these three giants? While Hack's resume doesn't even BEGIN to compare with the above three, he's not without merit. He does suffer from "generic Korean Terran" syndrome, but generic Korean Terrans are dangerous opponents. If Happy, ThorZaIN, and sC can hand MC losses in TvP, then Hack most definitely can as well. Similarly, if Soulkey can lose a very important series to SuperNoVa, then count me in on Hack having a fighting chance. The only player you would count Hack out against is probably Polt, but that's only because Polt has looked absolutely godlike in TvT as of late.
Predictions
Polt > HacK
Soulkey > MC
Polt > Soulkey
Hack > MC
Soulkey > Hack
Polt and Soulkey advance.
Group B: MMA, Trap, Jaedong, Genius
Even though Group B contains no European players, it will still serve as a test for WCS Europe. MMA and Genius, two very old-school champions, enjoyed their best results in a very long time in the previous WCS Europe. While fans were happy to see the old veterans placing high in the rankings again, there was still an undercurrent of doubt. Getting results is good, but what do those results mean when they come in the weakest WCS region?
With the exception of Mvp – a supernatural being to whom conventional wisdom does not apply – no WCS Europe player has reached the semi-finals of the WCS Season Finals so far. Two players in ForGG and NaNiwa have reached the quarter-finals, while the rest have been eliminated in the group stages. WCS Europe players are overshadowed in non-WCS tournaments as well, with a disproportionate number of top finishers hailing from the WCS America or Korea regions.
Genius in particular invites a lot of questions. Carefully studying his opponent's builds allowed him to craft strong all-ins make a strong run through the Premier League, even defeating fellow Koreans ForGG and Duckdeok. With the groups revealed on such short notice, it will be more difficult for him to prepare.
Still, Genius has shown he is capable of putting impromptu displays of brilliance, like when he four-killed Startale in the GSTL playoffs back when was still with Azubu. With barely any recorded games played outside of WCS Premier, we're left wondering what kind of play the mercurial Genius will bring.
For fans of WCS Europe, MMA is the player to place one's hopes on. Relatively weak region or not, MMA absolutely crushed WCS Europe Season 3, dropping just three maps on his way to the title. He's had plenty of good results in non-WCS tournaments as well, coming up top four in a DH Bucharest run where he defeated Flash, Ryung, YuGiOh, Avenge (underrated!), and ForGG before he was toppled by teammate INnoVation. This isn't some fringe Code S player taking advantage of this poor Europeans – this is one of the greats of old finding his form again. At the Season Three finals, expect MMA to be more Mvp than duckdeok.
As for the players doing the testing... First we have Trap, who is a most unexpected entrant into this tournament. The Europe region may have some questions about their worthiness to answer, but that's nothing compared to Trap, who many people probably didn't even know was competing at all up to this point.
Put in a mini-tournament with jjakij, Rain, and PartinG, Trap somehow triumphed over them all to win a ticket to Canada as the Korean region's fifth representative. First, Trap won 2 – 1 against the famously strong PvP player PartinG. Then, he went on to defeat Jjakji (who upset Rain earlier) 3 –1 in the deciding series (here's a more detailed recap).
For a player who was previous known as a PvZ-only specialist, it was a result that came out of nowhere. It could have been a fluke, Trap showing off his improved PvP and PvT in a very eye-catching way, or some mixture of both. Much like Genius, he's a dark horse who can't be underestimated.
Finally there's Jaedong, who has that annoying Kong thing going on still. You really have to be a special kind of elite to have four runner-up finishes in just as many months. Jaedong very nearly had a shot at making it five second place finishes at the past WCS America, but a narrow 2 – 3 loss to ByuL in the semis saw him fall short just before the final step.
Overall, Jaedong seemed to struggle a bit more than he should have against both Hack and ByuL, which makes us doubtful about his chances of winning a fifth silver medal. Was that the hidden cost of doing a complete 180 on JvP? However, even if Jaedong has fallen off slightly from being a perennial finalist, he still has to be considered a favorite to advance from this group.
Unrelated subplot: will Jaedong betray the USA for Canada?
Predictions
MMA > Trap
Jaedong > Genius
MMA > Jaedong
Trap > Genius
Jaedong > Trap
Group C: Dear, HerO, VortiX, Oz
"Good luck. The world is counting on you." We like to imagine that's what Lucifron told his brother VortiX just before he embarked on his voyage to Canada for the season three finals. In each previous season, there were four foreigners to represent the non-Korean world. This time, we're down to just one.
In one way, VortiX is an unexpected hero for the foreign scene. When you think about foreigner hope, Scarlett and NaNiwa are typically the names that come to mind. In another way, it's surprising that it took VortiX so long to get here. Despite being overshadowed by Stephano and Nerchio, he was clearly at least the third best European player toward the end of WoL. And while he was certainly aided by his race back then, there's a reason why he was getting great tournament results while other Zergs were not. Arguably, he's been an elite Zerg for most of HotS already – it's just that it's taken him a while to show that through his WCS Europe placement.
Like any foreigner going up against a sea of Koreans, the outlook for VortiX is grim. While having just one race to practice against would have helped under regular circumstances, VortiX won't even have that going for him due to the late announcement of the groups.
What VortiX does have going for him is relative unpredictability. Even though Koreans pay foreigners a lot of lip service in interviews, not all of them research foreigners with a great deal of thoroughness. Even in the BL-Infestor days VortiX was more keen than most on mixing things up, whether that meant going for weird lair timing attacks or baneling busts.
The Korean Protosses will be more than familiar with the hydra-roach-viper style VortiX used predominantly in WCS Season 2, but he showed us a more mixed repertoire of ZvP strategies in Season 3, including abrupt muta-switches and mass roach-infestor mid-game play.
One difficulty in predicting how the matches will go is the recent popularity of the "sOs-style" in PvZ, which can be (very poorly) summed up as using void rays to take a very fast third base, followed by delaying robotics tech in favor of faster templar tech or even more voids. VortiX didn't play anyone who employed that style in WCS Season 3, but was not very convincing against NaNiwa's interpretation of sOs-style back in Season 2. Considering that Dear received personal coaching from sOs, VortiX better have an answer ready, whether it's in the form of huge queen-roach-hydra busts or just immaculate late game stalemate play.
Ultimately, the greatest fear is that all this wondering about how VortiX might play against the Koreans in a macro game is for naught, because he'll just be all-ined out before he can get there. That's the very reason why Scarlett won't be playing in front of her countrymen come this weekend – because Oz decided that he was just going to Soul Train her twice. Not only that, but HerO and Oz are two huge fans of cannon rushing as well, so there's danger for VortiX at every phase of the game.
So good luck VortiX, you've got a difficult fight ahead of you. We're counting on you!
Oh yeah, there's players besides VortiX in this group.
Dear: While some might still be shaking their heads in disbelief at Dear's Code S title run, he's already got off to a good start at proving his doubters wrong. Dear's ace match win against Life just three days after the grand finals didn't just give Soul their first in the GSTL, but it sent the statement that he is no one hit wonder. How convenient that he now has a chance to make that statement on a global stage!
HerO: These days HerO is making his fans tear their hair out by being as HerO-ish as possible, playing brilliantly one game and looking completely lost the next. Usually when winter comes along HerO starts to find the consistency needed to string together some deep tournament runs, but it looks like winter is coming late this year.
Oz: Like his old housemate HerO, Oz can be very up and down. One month he's getting eliminated from DreamHack by elfi and TLO, the next he's giving Polt all he can handle in the semi-finals of WCS America. Not only does he have the potential to go far in this tournament, but he also has a chance to become the most hated Korean ever if he all-ins VortiX out with a Soul Train.
Predictions
Dear > HerO
Oz > VortiX
Dear > Oz
HerO > VortiX
Oz > HerO
Dear and Oz advance.
Group D: ByuL, duckdeok, Maru, soO
Group A may be harder. Group B may have the two fan favorites of MMA and Jaedong. Group C has the only foreigner to make it to the Ro16. But Group D is the only group among the four where all four players have reached the finals of their respective regions. Byul made it to WCS NA Season 3, Maru won WCS KR Season 2, Soo was a finalist in WCS KR Season 3 and duckdeok won WCS EU Season 2. At the beginning of this year, all four players were either relative unknowns or complete non factors at the top tier of play. One year later each of them have reached the top echelons of play. With their own beliefs, practice and hard work each of them have forged their own path to make it to the WCS Season 3 Finals.
Byul, Nestea's protege
The IM team has a distinct style and flavor to how each of their races play. The Terrans all play a more macro focused style of what Mvp does when his back isn't broken. The Protoss players all have a strong orientation around 3 bases and robo units. But for Zerg, IM only had Nestea and Losira. While both are extremely strong, the way they play is completely different from each other. Losira likes to play towards the late game and likes opening with queens and roaches. Nestea looks to open insane and then go into mutas in all three matchups. And up until now, no Zerg from IM has ever adopted his style: Junwi, True, Ragnarok, horror, Sophia, Minseok. None until Byul.
Byul is in many ways a younger Nestea. He uses similar builds often doing proxy hatches, surprise roach or speedling busts, two base spire or nydus. He likes opening in a way that confuses his opponent and leaves him in charge of the opening phases of the game. And just like Nestea, he is incredibly strong at the muta base trade in ZvT and ZvP. He may not have his mentor's incredible fame or prestige, but he does have his style without any of the lapses of judgement or concentration that have become a hallmark of Nestea's play. Many will forget about him in favor of Polt's incredible performance in the WCS NA Finals, but it takes two players to make a great series.
Maru, the Prince that was promised
Each race had a young prodigy. A player that was foretold to be the future of their race, a young player of great potential that could one day win a championship. They are Creator, Life and Maru. Creator won TSL 4 and WCS Korea 2012. Life became the strongest and most consistent zerg winning championship after championship. And Maru just won the OSL. What made each of them unique was that each of them contributed something to the way their race was played. Creator made a name for himself early on with propelling Korean Protoss to use a double forge build and later on perfected PvT and PvZ in WoL to a fine science. Life showed that Zerg play had been handicapped. And under his hands, zerglings soared to completely new heights as he tore up the competition with his ling micro alone.
Maru is quickly on his way to changing the way Terran is played as well. When he won the OSL he won because of his courage, tenacity and calm in the face of pressure. He had played the best in the tournament, but not so above everyone else that he was on a different echelon. But during his last GSL run, Maru seemed to become even stronger than he was before. He showed insanely greedy builds against Flash and won with perfect defense. Against Dear, he showed the best bio medivac micro of all time and won a game from a large deficit against the future GSL champion. Maru is pushing the boundaries of what can be done with Terran. And though Terrans like Innovation, MMA and Polt are the present. Maru is the future and he is coming.
Soo Good or Soo Sad?
Soo has had major problems with consistency throughout the 3 seasons of WCS KR. Yes, he made it twice to the Ro16 before making it to the finals, but on the way he has shown two sides of himself. On one side is Soo Good; a Zerg that shows a completely dominant form of Zerg. One that has a keen sense of economic risk, build orders and generally strong mechanics to back it all up. On the other hand is Soo Bad; a Zerg that is sluggish, indecisive at times and confused. The one that showed up to the finals was the latter. By game 3 the former had shown up, but even the Soo Good Soo was no match for the Soul Zombie Dear. For many, losing a GSL Finals can be a devastating event and most lose all motivation to keep practicing after the loss. So the question for Soo will be if he can gather himself together in time for the WCS Season 3 Finals. If not, he'll be Soo sad.
Duckdeok, a man of conviction
Once when Duckdeok was known as finale, he was a macro player. A player that specialized in PvT, but had strong timing attacks in PvZ and strong PvP. He slowly grinded his way up through the GSL as he slowly and surely incremented his skill over time. But that was WoL and that was a different time, different place, different person. After being frustrated for so long in his constant pursuit of a win, he finally decided to bet it all. The safe cautious approach was not working and it was time to bet it all. finale changed his name to Duckdeok and then he took all of the risks inside and outside the game.
When WCS was announced, Duckdeok immediately jumped from Korea to Europe despite the fact that he was playing at bad times, bad pings and his team wouldn't pay a trip for him to go to Europe even if he qualified. That didn't matter, Duckdeok was all-in and he covered the costs of travel himself. So Duckdeok kept playing at those bad times with that bad ping in a qualifier that didn't particularly want him. He may have failed a few times in the first qualifiers and they may have laughed at his attempts, but he kept going with every all-in in the book and then some of his own devising. Some called him coin-flippy, others called him lucky, and no one believed he could win, but none of that mattered. Because Duckdeok had conviction, he believed in himself. Duckdeok knew he had it in him to win a major championship and he bet it all to make his dream come true.
In an era where we get another retirement announcement from one of the greats or fan favorites of SC2, Duckdeok went all-in on SC2. It may have looked like a huge gamble from the outside, but for Duckdeok, it was the only place he wanted to be. The only game he wanted to play. And at the end he was right. He won WCS EU Season 2 and vindicated his 3 years of hard work. He may not be as strong as the three other players in this group, but Duckdeok is a man of conviction and he will do anything to win. He may be the weakest player in the group, but he could very well be the most dangerous.
Predictions
Maru > Byul
Soo > Duckdeok
Soo > Maru
Byul > Duckdeok
Maru > Byul
Soo and Maru advance.
