EPTIf it gets going over/after the weekend, I can step up.
Thug Life Mini Mafia
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
If it gets going over/after the weekend, I can step up. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 01 2013 10:52 WaveofShadow wrote: Will you chat with me?I thought that was VE. Never mind. I don't want to talk to you. | ||
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austinmcc
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austinmcc
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austinmcc
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austinmcc
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I don't like FT for scum. He first got scrutinized for his early posts: On September 27 2013 15:35 FirmTofu wrote: Okay, so my best scum read right now is ShiaoPi. He's been around, but hasn't contributed. His filter is all one liners with basically no substance. Now, I know ShiaoPi is a lot better than how he's playing right now. I want to know why he is playing below is full potential. Filter: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=429897&user=ShiaoPi RNG debate. Statistically, it is a great idea to randomly choose a day one lynch. There are 6 scum between us. 6/20= .3 I don't think the best scumhunters among us can lynch with greater accuracy on Day 1 than 30%. However, I also don't think there is any method by which we can decide a fair way to choose a random kill. We would need an unbiased party to use random.org or something. We don't have any confirmed town, so discussing this topic is pointless. Lynching randomly is impractical and unfeasible. Stop wasting time discussing this pointless topic. On September 27 2013 15:37 FirmTofu wrote: ##Vote: ShiaoPi ...and I'm off to bed! On September 27 2013 15:38 FirmTofu wrote: We've already discussed you quite enough. There are at least 5 other scummers out there. I'm interested in discussing as many people as possible. I'll discuss you if you end up being the #1 or #2 candidate later in the day. On September 27 2013 15:41 FirmTofu wrote: Thread wasn't hopping at the point FT dropped these. If FT is scum, he wanted to get active, post something legitimate, and dropped...that set of posts? No. He has no reason to do that as scum - he doesn't need to finger SP, he doesn't need to tell Grack he's not gonna talk about Grack. He doesn't need to take a hard stance and say eff you guys I'm sleeping.You can, and you will. I'm going to actually go to bed now. ^_^ If FT is scum, I don't think he makes 1/3 of a case on SP, drops a vote on SP, tells grack he's not chatting, and goes to bed. It's messy, it's not crafted, it's very confident that he can tell Grack to shove off. In an odd way, I viewed the lack of explanation that other people are jumping on as scummy but not anti-town? Like...yes, scum may like dropping votes for no/bad reasons. But townies do it to. And the timing and circumstances of FT's posts here and vote don't strike me as scummy, because scum doesn't have a reason to do this --> add a new candidate, not push that guy, dip from thread (barring scumbuddy being heavily scrutinized at the time, but then I'd expect a real push from FT onto someone else). One of the reasons I liked Koshi for scum was his quick defense of FT on slightly shaky grounds, that FT was a townie trying to make a "splash" - On September 27 2013 21:09 Koshi wrote: A lot of my D1 notes are just in relation to FT, who attacked him/defended him for what (except not the last chunk of D1, tl;dr). That defense was slightly wonky, in that I didn't think it was much of a splash, and ... there's not much of an explanation here. He doesn't explain the splash, doesn't say WHY he doesn't find the "splash" scummy.I don't think it is stupid at all. FT also says he will make a case if Grack leads in votes. I am not a fan of people playin this game 1 hour a day but FT made a splash and I dont find that splash scummy. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 01 2013 11:12 WaveofShadow wrote: Nope. Hai austin! You scum? Can we play now? | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On September 28 2013 18:01 Chairman Ray wrote: Oh, only 11 hours left. I definitely won't be here tomorrow for endgame, so I'm gonna stay up late tonight to try to catch up. I've lightly skimmed through posts so far, and I take it that Koshi is winning votes because of RNG? Filtering through his posts, it's pretty clear that he's aggravated by this decision by town. I'm gonna put myself in his shoes for a sec. If I was town, and everyone was gonna RNG lynch me, then I would just be like wtf... I definitely wouldn't be angry since it's not due to my own lack of skill or other people's misreads, but sheer luck instead. Once I flip town, then the townies will just feel really stupid for doing it and I'd be okay with that. Now what if I was in Koshi's shoes and I was mafia? I would probably be a bit aggravated to push town off me, and if I flip red, then people will probably celebrate at my expense. But the thing is that I am not Koshi, so I don't share his feelings or thought process, so this read might be off. To people that have played with Koshi before, would you expect this kind of behavior from town or mafia Koshi? I definitely think that by his behavior, he is more likely mafia. Another thing that's consistent with Koshi being mafia is that there are others trying to save him. If Koshi were town, then it could be possible that there is no effort to save him, light effort to save him, or heavy effort to save him. Anything is possible. If Koshi were mafia, I would bet that his mafia buddies wouldn't give up on him so easily, especially on D1. Since the RNG thing is so stupid, then his mafia buddies could easily make a case for it and not seem scummy in the process. So if Koshi were mafia, I would bet that there is some heavy effort to save him. Right now, we do see some heavy effort, in the form of the yamato train. Although this could happen if Koshi was either town or mafia, I suspect it is more likely if he were mafia. Because of these reasons, I think there's a good chance that Koshi is actually scum, and we got really lucky with the RNG. Just for now ##Vote: Koshi I will be up for a bit more reading through posts. I would like to think about it a bit more before leaving for the night with a read that came from RNG. After your response, I'll either keep pestering you or you can ask me some questions or do whatever you want to me so long as it doesn't end in me bleeding to death from any natural or unnaturally-WoS-created orifice. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On September 28 2013 03:38 FirmTofu wrote: Anyone who supports RNG, myself included, should still scumhunt and make full use of the day. There is still much to say and much to find. Anyone who stops scumhunting should be subject to lynch as well. I find that super easy lynchbait. It's true, and mafia can very well say it but only to get townie points, i.e., it's a townie thing to say. He hasn't followed through, but I think that's not enough to vote him for, and I think it's a quick and dirty point to make in order to push a mislynch a little. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 01 2013 11:28 WaveofShadow wrote: CR post is a problem. Last game was my first exposure to him and it screamed newbie town to me. Problem is I feel even though he is pretty newbie, he is also well aware of the status he's given himself---it's only a matter of time before he learns to manipulate that as scum. Until he does more I really can't be sure. I'd still lean town on him overall just because that sort of thing is kinda difficult to fake this early in a career I feel. Austin let me do your post! I dunno which post, but do away. This is supposed to be a little back and forth here. | ||
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On October 01 2013 11:53 WaveofShadow wrote: Koshi Koshi Bo BoshiNo can do. Surprise crying fit. Post what you gotta and I'll read it when I can. First third of http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=429897&user=Koshi&view=all is one-liners, small questions, him playing with Grackaroni. He's rarely, if ever, engaging anyone else in the thread (occasionally mentioning you, but with regards to not wanting to see you fail or whatever, not with regard to any substantive read or chatting with you). 1/3 or 1/4 is that. But that 1/3 or 1/4 is important to me, because it represents Koshi playing the game BEFORE he became a RNG lynch. BH makes his post, Koshi pops up. He has some mild interactions with the thread, disliking a case on rayn because rayn had been relatively vocal in talking about others. On September 28 2013 08:23 Koshi wrote: I looked at this, and hated this post.Scumreads before I sleep and just maybe I can stop the retrdness. But prolly wont. BH: Hopefully scum with grack or so. But this rng shit and how he handled it raped me in the ass. Also a smart play as scum actually 16/19 not in your team and you shit up the thread because the baddies keep mentioning it. Evetything else he does doesnt matter anymore. Yamato: looks like his scumgames. Cases are good. Grack: total scum. Going to get away with it. Who cares. FT: looks policy lynch if yiu look at his previous games. But analysis on his posts points out he actually can be scum playing like. Dont.think what he did was not something FT as town couldnt.do but w.e. Rest of the kids I dont care about yet. Also note I never had a strong scumread on WoS i just said that the town whining posts were good post if they came from scum. Like BH his rng lynch. 0123 am ffs BH is scum because RNG says vote Koshi. He has no ACTUAL reason to call BH scum here. There are good cases on Yamato. Grack is scum, but Koshi has been on grack all game with some justifications behind his scumread, so that one's substantiated in prior posts. FT ... that FT read is nothing. Other people point out he might be scum, but that gobbledegook doesn't actually give me a clear idea of what Koshi thinks about FT. I hate that post because it's mushy and easy. Yamato and FT are being discussed. He's been on Grack all game. BH made his RNG post. Koshi has 1000000% not spoken up on a number of people, isn't making reads or presenting any information on a number of people, and is, at least based on his posts, kind of worried about being RNG lynched. But instead of really hunting, really poking around, he makes what feels like a very easy set of reads, 2 people that are being discussed as scum, the guy he keeps saying is scum, and BH. I dunno, most of it stems from watching his posts hard after his initial FT post about FT making a "splash". He was someone I was paying particular attention to, and his entire D1 from the RNG point out is just him halfway worrying about being RNG-lynched, but nothing much else. Every post is still really short. Every post remains focused on this small group of players. He seems legitimately worried about being lynched, but not at looking outside the easy options for scum. Moreover, I remember a number of people dropping little koshi suspicions --> koshi normally posts more/better/more substantively. I remember SP making this post, believe there were 2-3 others. On September 28 2013 02:57 ShiaoPi wrote: koshi is not that rapid fire style townie I would expect from him. Also I really do not agree with the reasoning he offered when I asked him about the Grack read Throughout the whole day, apart from early banter with grack and calling grack scum, Koshi just doesn't DO anything of substance. He thinks he might get lynched, and his focus is on calling out easy alternatives, rather than really trying to build a case on someone hard-to-lynch (BH out of his choices) or someone who isn't being scrutinized/talked abotu already. I'm going to stop rambling now. If there's a single post that struck me as scummy, it's the "splash" post about FT. It's moreso just about a lack of engagement with the game as a whole, posting a bunch while not really doing anything, and when he's supposedly super worried about getting lynched, never really doing much other than complaining that he might get lynched and talking about how everyone who finds him townie is town and everyone who finds him scummy is scum. It's mostly thoughts, rather than a case, but WoS especially and whoever else is more than welcome to talk through some of this. | ||
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austinmcc
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austinmcc
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austinmcc
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On October 01 2013 12:07 strongandbig wrote: If you mean this guy - + Show Spoiler +Austin what do you think about my palmar case (and grack's case which is extra evidence for my case) Also I get that you don't think ft is scum but what about shiaopi? He's currently the second realistic lynch option. On September 28 2013 04:19 strongandbig wrote: i dont like this post. rayn clearly indicated that palmar making sense was not alignment indicative. but palmar is trying to twist/recast that reasoning into rayn having had a townread on him. either intentional, in which case scummy, or unintentional, in which case this really doesn't fit with the brooks-no-nonsense-or-illogicalness palmar we know and love. then there's another thing. Palmar is voting for yamato right now, but he's made cases for why at least two other people (grack and hiro) are actively scummy. (his "pattern finding"). whereas he's said pretty much nothing about yamato. what's the point of putting emphasis on pattern finding if you're not going to actually use it to kill scum. Also, I think one thing scum players love to do is give advice and not follow it: And the last thing: Who else thinks it's weird that palmar posted this, then didn't say anything in terms of analysis of what came out of it? Like, someone even asked him to say something about vayne based on it, and he didn't mention it at all. My impression of palmar from his opening shenanigans in other games is that he likes to get something from them. When he proposes a random lynch or other stupid policy, he has a very specific set of goals in mind as town for information he wants to get from the shenanigans and peoples' reactions to them. This game, I don't see that. Yes, I do think palmar is cocky enough to claim scum as scum. So I guess...I don't love the case. Spoilered is a thought about RNG/Palmar but RNG got so much discussion yesterday that I don't think it needs to pop back up today and it's a better thing to maybe discuss postgame + Show Spoiler + RNG nice because it forces people to take stances on that issue, generates discussion on that issue, and if you ever actually choose someone you get to look at the votes and see who follows, who follows blindly, who fights it, etc. In this game, we have 6 scum, 6/19 odds, good odds, as people pointed out. BUT BUT BUT BUT BUT Each scum team have 16/19 odds that it doesn't hit THEM. That's...better than a normal game. Normal balance isn't 3 scum 16 town. So as far as town is concerned, it's good odds to hit scum. As far as scum are concerned, it's good odds NOT TO HIT THEIR OWN TEAM. Each faction views the math differently, because town cares about hitting any scum but scum really only cares about hitting THEIR scum. I was actually writing down every time someone mentioned RNG lynching at a certain point, because I could really see scum going for an RNG lynch given that it was so unlikely to hit THEIR teammates. And Palmar, who has spoken on why he sometimes proposes RNG lynches and appears to not just say "RNG LYNCH = COOL LET'S DO ONE" never pointed this out, and it just felt in my head like something that town Palmar would say, "Hey guys, because we have 2 scum teams, scum may be more down with RNG than normal, and we can't get the same sort of information out of votes because scum may be down with lynching an RNG-ed scum if they're on opposite teams." It'll mostly be a hindsight thing and if Palmar flips scum I'll feel all smug, but I think it's dumb to really say "I had this thought about RNG lynch in this game and Palmar does RNG stuff sometimes and he didn't speak up on the same thought so he's gotta be hiding it and he's scum." So...overall, whatever, Palmar not scum to me atm based on that or your case. | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 01 2013 12:07 strongandbig wrote: SP I didn't get much from D1, I got nothing in read-through notes on him and just remembered he was one of the folks making a Koshi comment.Austin what do you think about my palmar case (and grack's case which is extra evidence for my case) Also I get that you don't think ft is scum but what about shiaopi? He's currently the second realistic lynch option. As far as him being a lynch option today...will read through in the EST morning and respond more fully. I find myself almost never wanting to lynch ShiaoPi because his schedule is never synched with the thread's and it always feels like he's pushable as a mislynch in games he rolls town. Just...very very wary of any push to lynch ShiaoPi. Strongandbig : Drazerk :: austinmcc : ShiaoPi | ||
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austinmcc
United States6737 Posts
On October 01 2013 12:35 Grackaroni wrote: I don't do anything with that. At this point I don't think we can go "there's probably an active player that is scum, therefore we'll lynch the likeliest of the active players to be scum." You're making weird assumptions if you want to vote Palmar because there are PROBABLY active scum/an active scum. Especially D2, I'm not voting based on that and I don't think it's worth much.What do you think about what I said on Palmar, he's the only active player I see right now with a good case for being scum. Maybe Rayn but he just doesn't care this game and I have no idea what that means for him. If it's not Palmar it's probably going to be one of the lurkers lynched. rayn's filter doesn't make me warm and fuzzy, but doesn't trip anything super major. I got paranoid that he was focused on how people can't make townreads given that there are two scum teams, but he didn't post about that as much as I remembered. | ||
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austinmcc
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On October 01 2013 12:51 Grackaroni wrote: I'll read the tail end of Palmar's D1 more closely, but so long as he was still vocal about being down with a Yamato lynch while making some of the statements you pull out, I'm okay with him not jumping harder on other folks.No I mean what I wrote about Palmar on page 7 of my filter. Palmar being the most likely active player to be scum is just my opinion, not why I think he is scum. You may think he's scummy for not having a balls-out D1 where you think he's super townie and super scumhunter man, but I don't THINK I recall scum Palmar posting a wishy washy crap. From what I remember of scum Palmar, he does the same thing as normal - picks a target, tunnels target, tries to push lynch on target. So I read those posts on Hiro and FT as being actual thoughts, but not scum flags because (a) I don't think it fits what I've seen from scumPalmar and (b) scumPalmar knows better than to post wishy washy reads. So, overall, I guess just not terribly scummy on Palmar. | ||
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austinmcc
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On October 01 2013 13:04 Grackaroni wrote: Kk. I'll add that to looking at SP tomorrow morning, but...have you played with scum Palmar and did he play at all similarly? If not, then I don't believe him not being vocal and not pushing a particular read are as good of indicators of scum Palmar as you're making them out to be.He wasn't vocal about anyone at the end of day1. He popped in near the end to say that RoL/FT/Hiro were good lynches, then I said something about how if he wanted one of those people to be lynched in the last 2 hours he would have chosen one and written a case and pushed him hard and then he made another post saying that those 3 + (Yamato/koshi) the two vote leaders were all fine lynches. | ||
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