EPTTL Mafia LXII: TL Noir
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
This is my third game of forum mafia. I have played real time mafia as well. Even though I'm a lot less experienced than most people here, I'll pull my weight just fine and I don't expect any newbie lenience. Last game I learned that it's quite difficult to get strong reads on people during the day. Most my reads at the start were quite off. A lot of town said scummy things, and a lot of scum were quite pro town. However during the final hour when thing started being messy, there were strong reads everywhere. So this game I will try to focus on making things very difficult for scum during the last hour. If a town ends up being lynched day 1, I want as much information to come out of it as possible. So feel free to ask me anything and I will try to be as transparent as possible. If I see something fishy, I will definitely try to flush you out as well. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 22 2013 10:08 Stutters695 wrote: How exactly do you plan on making things harder for scum only in the last hour? Everything from how people vote, when people vote, and vote switches are able to give strong reads. Like for example, near the end if the votes are leading 6 on person A and 5 on person B, and my vote is currently on person A, and my vote is currently on A. If I switch my vote from A to B, and then in response someone switches their vote from B to A, and then A flips town, that really sets off a red flag for that guy. It also gives a really good target for whoever is cop, because it has the potential to reveal two scum. There are probably a lot of ways we can force scum to make bigger pushes to save each other with some creativity. I only have one vote, but on the first day, I will use that vote to scumhunt and get as much information as possible instead of keeping my vote on the scummiest player early on and leaving it there. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 22 2013 13:15 Mattchew wrote: i really thought Koshi was scum as shit, and then I read another game where he plays similarly as town, some golden game or something, so like w.e Chairman Ray I think that was a really really really weak post that exudes none of the confidence that I hope a town player would have. whoever we were talking about before with 2 posts that sucked about pandain and wave(or someone) is still probably the best lynch. I thought BC was in this game  I am not allowed to read into wave's confidence right cause apparently he is always on fucks given level -100? Someone else posted about lynching for information which i think is appalling... next we're gonna hear something like "dont direct blues!!11!111!!!!!" I think theres a lot of people making reads based on them not liking someone's playstyle and this is bad mmmmmK? Can you give me a rundown of the issues you see in my post? | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 22 2013 14:28 Mocsta wrote: You're conflicting me btw. What I want to know is: Why are you still trying to play "trap the scum" after it backfired so badly in your last game? I thought we coached this out of you? I'm not playing the scum trap like I did last game. I'm not withholding anything, posting fake reads, or doing anything that's not completely genuine. However I do believe that analyzing a mislynch post-mortem isn't that productive and there's a lot that each town player can accomplish during the last hour, so that in the event of a mislynch, we have the information we need to narrow scum possibilities down to as few people as possible, and also to give the cop more productive reads as well. I think it would be tragic for the person lynched to lead in votes by a huge margin without much of a struggle, and having him flip town. That would tell us nothing coming into the second day. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 22 2013 15:41 Mocsta wrote: Thats great and all, but, there hasn't been a flip to analyse, let alone a mislynch. Whose scummiest on your radar; and why? I have played past games with only a few of the players here. Here are my reads on then so far: Coagulation - He was town last time I played with him. Injected a lot of one liners to get discussion going, but never really participated in the discussions themselves. He's playing pretty similarly this game. Umasi - He was mafia last time I played with him. He was very active and capitalized the discussion from the start. Took a good degree of control over the town. He's a lot more mellow this game around. I filtered through posts, and the person who looks the scummiest to me right now is stutters. He's made only a few posts so far. Every post he's made is a poke at kush, but his very last post was questioning me on how I would try to play out the last hour to make things harder for scum. It seems that out of all these pages of posts, and all these players, he's only interested in getting people onto kush and learning my scum catching plan. That seems like a scum agenda to me. If it was you who asked me that question, I wouldn't mind it since you've been asking everyone questions about a lot of things. However stutters very selectively asking me that question instead of the countless other things that have been going on in this thread really screams scum to me. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 22 2013 22:20 yamato77 wrote: This dude is now the best lynch in the game, for quite obvious reasons. ##Vote: Chairman Ray Why are you voting me? Whatever reasons you believe aren't so obvious to me. Not saying that your reasons are wrong, but if you don't have a lot of confidence that I'm town, we definitely should be discussing this. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 23 2013 04:14 LoneMeow wrote: I can't get a scum read on anyone but Umasi, and I'm notoriously biased against him so that's almost guaranteed to be wrong. I'll vote him anyway since I have to vote someone. Not sure I'll wake up for the deadline but I'll try. Chairman Ray is lynchbait like in my last newbie, so probably town. IMHO his "last hour shenigans" plan is terrible, though. ##Vote: Umasi Here for a while if you want to ask me something. Why would you say that voting Umasi is a terrible idea, yet vote him anyways? It seems to me like you are scum trying to get achieve a town mislynch D1, but unable to muster up any strong cases on anybody. So instead of posting a weak case against them and have everyone call you out on it, you beat us to the punch by telling us your case is poor to begin with. If you are really town, then a town who intentionally makes a bad vote is still hurting town. ##Vote: LoneMeow | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 23 2013 04:39 LoneMeow wrote: How am I supposed to do that when I have no reads and no thread presence? LoneMeow, on D1, nobody knows who is town and who is mafia. If you are town, you know who you are and that's it. The biggest victory you can achieve for town is for you to not get lynched. Voting for yourself spells a huge lack of confidence, and how do you expect us to believe in you, if you don't even believe in yourself? When you vote someone on D1, you don't know what they will flip, but you can be confident in that vote knowing that it is the one you will regret the least. So you can keep your vote on yourself, put it back on Umasi, or whatever you want. Either way, I am confident in my vote on you because I know you play a lot better, and I think this is just a ploy to get everyone to think you are just a bad town. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 23 2013 05:39 yamato77 wrote: I was feeling better about your alignment until this. Choosing to do nothing else but sheep thread sentiment onto my own wagon at a crucial time like this is actually fairly conclusive evidence that you are mafia. I see no indication before this that you actually thought I was scum, or thought anyone was scum, for that matter. The "reason" that you have voted for me is actually such a constructed piece of bullshit that I find it hilarious. You're not voting for any reason except for the fact that I voted for Chairman Ray when it should be apparent that I found the reasoning obvious? Laughably horrid. For the record, let me explain why Chairman Ray's post makes him 100% mafia. The one valuable thing I learned from Sicilian was that if there's one thing to be on the lookout for, it is terrible opening posts, especially late in the day. Now, all of you may have the impression from him that he's a noon, but it honestly makes no difference. Anyone who struggles so mightily to post anything of value that late in the day when they enter the thread is almost certainly mafia. To be fair, you could also damn him for his recent sheep vote if LoneMeow just as that wagon was taking off. I guarantee that Chairman Ray is having a difficult time coming up with legitimately suspicious things to comment on, so his gameplan is to sheep the easiest lynch out there. At that time, LM fit the profile because votes were piling on him after he martyred. He is the most legitimately likely mafia candidate in the thread, and my vote will continue to stay on him. I need to ask you how you came to the conclusion that a terrible opening post makes someone 100% mafia. If the reason you believe I am mafia is that in a previous game, a mafia made a terrible opening post and you believe these two things have to be correlated, then I think you are wrong because you are basing your argument off a single sample, and you still haven't explained your logic on why terrible first posts must mean mafia. The last thing I want is for this game to end before you realize that anybody can make any sort of opening post, and you can't throw a 100% mafia read on them for it. I want to win this game right here, right now. In order to do that, I need everyone's trust, and that includes you. As for my vote on LM, I was not sheeping him. In my opening post, I explicitly said that I will not be sheeping as it is very unproductive, and I'm not going to discredit myself by doing what I said I wouldn't do. The reason I voted LM is that he showed a lot of vulnerability, and putting a lot of pressure on him can give us some good information. At the very least, I don't want him to vote Umasi or himself for stupid reasons. As of now, he still has his vote on himself. It is unclear exactly why, and I want to get to the bottom of it. I can assure you that I'm not going to be keeping this vote here for the rest of D1. My vote will be a lot more productive than that. I guess by saying this, it sort of relieves whatever pressure I had on LM, but right now I think getting you trust is a bit more important. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 23 2013 06:35 Koshi wrote: I am planning to go to bed somewhat soonish. Shouldn't we consolodate on a target? 5 votes would be cool. Excuse me if I don't understand mafia as deeply as everyone else does, but isn't consolidating on a target the very least thing that town wants to do? If there is a leading number of votes on one person, that tells us almost nothing coming into day 2. For these two reasons, I think that koshi is definitely my biggest scumread right now. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 23 2013 07:00 yamato77 wrote: Chairman Ray, not Rayn. Yes, I think I can get him lynched. Since we still have a few hours left, I would like to discuss the reads you have one me right now so I don't get voted on impulse very last second. I don't buy your reasoning on why I should be the one lynched. I think that anyone can make any sort of opening post, whether they are scum or town. So what if there's one mafia in one of your previous games that made a terrible first post? In your history of mafia, has there never been a town that made a terrible first post? Also, what is your opinion on my reads so far? I appreciate that you commented on my LM read, and hopefully I managed to answer your question. I hope that maybe we could discuss things a bit more rather than you just shrugging off my reads as poor attempts of scumhunting. Right now I think there are far better people to lynch, like koshi. I just f5ed the thread, and he still hasn't made any mention on why he's voting me. I respect you for voting me, and following up with a lot of good analysis and valid questions, but all koshi did was vote me in the voting thread, and never even mentioned it here. What's that's supposed to accomplish? It doesn't put any more pressure on me, it doesn't give any information, or anything. He's probably hoping that it would go unnoticed. I'm starting to think that he's scum and he's joining the bandwagon on me. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 23 2013 07:30 yamato77 wrote: I explained that Koshi said he was sheeping me in voting you; this is not something that is extraordinary for town Koshi to do, in my opinion. If you think he's scum, what other reasoning would you put forward to justify this read, aside from that? Town make bad posts, yes, but scum make posts like yours. It's not a singular game of experience that I draw from, it is from vast experience in 20+ mafia games of my own in addition to the wonderful analysis Ver gave of my own opening post as scum in Sicilian that made me rethink how I view starting posts. You have a lot of history with koshi, but this is my first time playing with him. With that being given, do you think my read on him was reasonable? Right now, I still believe koshi may be scum. I might be willing to accept that he just followed your vote in the first place, but he's active in this thread right now, I'm inviting him to give me some analysis on why he's voting me, and there still hasn't been anything yet. I still disagree with your analysis on my first post. You may have an extensive experience, but that doesn't mean you are correct. In this case, you definitely do have a misread on me, but I hope that we can resolve that now instead of post game. At the same time, I made a lot of rookie mistakes that caused you to have such a strong scumread on me. I would like to win this game so if there's any way that I could make myself easier to read for you and everyone else here, feel free to say it. If I could improve now, that may mean the difference between a win and a loss. Otherwise I'll probably be seeking your help postgame. Right now my radar is still on koshi despite you disagreeing with me. However if you are confident that he's town, then I could use some of your analysis as well on why he is, so I have a more educated vote. I still would like to hear from koshi on why he's voting me. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
##Unvote I'll brb in an hour or so | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 23 2013 10:31 marvellosity wrote: Stuff like this is also bugging me. Read what I've bolded. The natural reaction to the accusation against him on his first post is "well i'm town, so clearly townies make first posts like that". Instead he's trying to argue that scum or town could make it, just making it a generic non-alignment indicative possibility, rather than proclaiming his towniness as a clear reason townies could make his opening post. It's not the only time he talks about reads on him in this way either Ok, there seems to be a lot of questions for me, which I like. I'll go through them one by one in however order I get to them. Not ignoring anything right now, but ping me again if I left something out for too long. For that post I made, to be really honest, the first time I typed that out, I actually did something like "well i'm town, so clearly townies make first posts like that" posted. I read it over and changed it. If my entire logic is screaming "I'm town", it's still not very convincing to you guys. I did that last game and someone called me out on it. I'm trying to phrase my arguments in a more generic fashion because this is forum mafia and not face to face mafia, so if I just straight up say I'm town, there's no tells on whether I'm truthful or not. I'm doing my best to provide evidence in a non-biased fashion so it's the most clear to you guys. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 23 2013 10:34 marvellosity wrote: He never votes this or revisits this. ##Vote: Chairman Ray Overall there's just too much stuff that's added up against him. Am I totally confident? No, but he's my best bet for mafia right now. I actually did want to follow up on it, but given that he's not falling for the easy lynch train on me, the little time I have is focused on better targets. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 23 2013 10:43 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I'm reading Ray's filter from newbie, he seems a lot more restricted here than there which is weird. Unless coaches were really on meth (holy shit I was coaching? nobody sent me any questions, I forgot all about it), I can't really say why he would regress in his ability to post substance. Better than yamato I guess. ##Vote: Chairman Ray This is my third game in mafia. My first game I was scum, and my second on was the newbie one. In the first game when I was scum, I was very active in posting reads and cases on people. Coagulation was in that game with me so he can give you any details you need. But don't let how much substance I'm posting dictate whether I'm town or scum. That is a false read on me. | ||
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Chairman Ray
United States11903 Posts
On September 23 2013 10:49 Mocsta wrote: Ray, please address my comments (assuming you think they are worthy of a rebuttle) I agree that there are some little inconsistencies with my play this game and my play last game. Last game I learned that spending a lot of time looking into every detail of every post is a pretty big waste, so I haven't done that this game, especially since I have a lot less time this mafia game and there's a lot more posts. My inconsistencies are a result of me skimming over posts, and spending nearly 100% of my time having to defend myself and having no time scumhunting. As for my vote on LM. I thought at the time he was possible mafia, but my pressure and vote on him was just to extract information. I didn't take my vote off him because I was pressured. I took it off because he left and there's no more information to be gained. Is there anything else I should address? I might have missed a bunch. | ||
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